Week 5 Discussion Thread

I wish I had a better feel for ville defense and the team in general now that Brohm the coach. I think ncst d has fallen off a bit tho, I usually trust them to be pretty good, I don’t think they awful just not sure as stout as previous years? Still could be the best d ville has faced depending what you think of indiana d but they held them to 21 and scoreless in 2nd half.

I like to be able to have some kind of picture how I think a game will play out and I have no clue what ncst offense vs ville d looks like? My concern would be the last few years when ville faced Armstrong at uva they were able to totally take his legs away, they held him to negative rush yards in both games and even with a new staff I assume they still have comparable athletes in the front 7 capable of making him 1 dimensional. He was able to throw for lots of yards in those games tho, just not sure I want to back him as a pure passer and not able to move the chains with his legs?? I think if you have team speed and any ability to watch film/game plan this offense is not real difficult to bottle up.

Maybe 55.5 is too high?? I have no interest playing ville as road favs I’m just not sure i want to back ncst either.
I focus less about what takes place on the field. Even ex football players cant know.

In this case I like teams that have been ex favorites now no one likes them and this line compares to other past games well.

Notre Dame was -7 at Nc St. earlier in the season this line is Louisville -3.5. Unless there is a problem or injury for NC St. I gotta bet the value.

Louisville played :

BC after BC's close loss to FSU BC always sucks as far as winning games.

Indiana : See BC

Murray St.

Georgia Tech

All these these teams are not as good as NC St. in my opinion.
 
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Wyoming isn’t really the kind of team you want to lay 14 with! It was a 13 point game at New Mexico last year but I don’t think we should expect a bigger margin here, matter a fact despite the 27-14 loss New Mexico out rushed wyo by a sizable margin in yards and yards per carry, New Mexico jumped out 14-0 then were outscored 27-0 the last 3 qrtrs, New Mexico had more 1st downs while pretty much dominating the run games, the problem was 3 turnovers and 70 penalty yards compared to just 15 for wyo. I like wyo, especially when you can get them as a dog, their style is fantastic for the dog role but to lay -14 it just doesn’t work!! I’d think it early enough in the year weather won’t be a factor, New Mexico should be able to be in this game late and if they can muster 2 tds there very little chance wyo will cover.
 
Trees have a pretty good history of playing ducks tough don’t they? I dunno about recently but i recall many times this game being closer than expected. Trees have fallen way off tho, personally I don’t like betting these spreads once they get into the 20s, I’m just not good at figuring them out!! Unless I love things about the dog I pretty much ignore these. Not sure there much to love bout trees these days?
I am playing an angle that has A huge strong history. This line is crazy big but is Oregon this good? Yes they can be. Here I stick to what is working and try to forget how good Oregon can be. Hint last weeks blowout was a nation TV game and the world was watching. Think the books want another beat down? They dont let those beat downs keep coming. So Oregon has WASH on deck is they get this line AGAIN that reduces line value against WASH. This is look ahead or beat down. IF they beat down again Im all over Wash next game.
 
I tend to agree bout ol miss struggling to put up points, mentioned this somewhere else but I don’t really buy dart as a thrower, obviously he can get the ball to guys and make plays the offense sets up but end the day if you stop ol miss rushing attack I don’t think he gonna drop back and carve ya up. I think you need a qb capable of doing that to stress lsu d, I’m pretty confident they will be tough to run on. Like I said before playing bama last week something seems wrong w Rebs offense, dart the leading rusher and they havnt been able to get Judkins off. I’d think it be more of the same here, wish I woulda played the under last week instead of just bama but I’ve gotten roasted on so many sec unders in 4th qrtrs the last few years I’m a bit shy bout betting them!!

I’d prob look 1st half before full game just because of that and the fact ol miss has been a part of several those redic 40+ point 4th qrtrs!! Actually leaned lsu/ark under last week and 1st half played true to that. Really can’t see any reason not to split it into halves? If they go over the 1st half total odds of them slowing down enough to hit game under seem unlikely, plus you can always play it again at half with most likely a higher number if they surpass 1st half total! Maybe there a hole in that logic, I’m not sure but I’ve been on so many unders in this conference I’ve felt so good about for a half, sometimes 3 qrtrs and still ended up getting beat I rather approach them 1 half at a time.
As far as I am concerned I look at comfort levels. If I go over this game I will need 35 first half to not feel like the 2nd half would be an up hill climb. Yes I agree, 5 Tuddy's frist Half ? They have to prove it to me.
 
Wyoming isn’t really the kind of team you want to lay 14 with! It was a 13 point game at New Mexico last year but I don’t think we should expect a bigger margin here, matter a fact despite the 27-14 loss New Mexico out rushed wyo by a sizable margin in yards and yards per carry, New Mexico jumped out 14-0 then were outscored 27-0 the last 3 qrtrs, New Mexico had more 1st downs while pretty much dominating the run games, the problem was 3 turnovers and 70 penalty yards compared to just 15 for wyo. I like wyo, especially when you can get them as a dog, their style is fantastic for the dog role but to lay -14 it just doesn’t work!! I’d think it early enough in the year weather won’t be a factor, New Mexico should be able to be in this game late and if they can muster 2 tds there very little chance wyo will cover.
Totally agree as you can see from my list it’s these types of teams that fluctuate from week to week and I’m counting on a lot of fluctuations
 
Ku winning wouldn’t be all that shocking to me, actually be more shocking if texas doesn’t stub their toe at some point! Not to worried that I missed a few points, really what’s the difference between 17.5 and anything before 20? Obviously I didn’t get the hook so I could see pushing instead of winning but hell, I’m pretty sure I woulda played ku getting 2 tds. They either stay inside 2 scores or it a blowout where maybe I back door comes in but that not what I’m looking for, I think they can hang.

You think ku correlates w over? I’m not real confident they can stop the horns so think we gonna need them to score!!
I dont like dog ABC games. They put games that seem to have good matchups and even fights, but it usually doesnt work for the dogs. If Texas whips KU this week OU looms on deck. Fade Texas there.

Kansas isnt battle tested at all. Kinda seems like a team I bet last week, "Colorado". beat BYU laying -9 but also played Nevada to a 7 point win. Also only beat ILL to a 11 points. They just havent impressed enough to hang here. Kansas ? No way Jose. If I fade Texas at this point they better be playing elite. The only thing I dont like about Texas is the look ahead.

Being on ABC and knowing they can pound the other team I dont see Texas not enjoying the lights and hoopla. Should be 24 + Texas win IMO.
 
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Who cares how much a team is “battle-tested.” Teams go from playing softies to beating real opponents all the time. They have advantages with this strategy: for example, they can win while playing vanilla to hide things from film

I‘ve never heard of anyone capping by tv channel before
 
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Who cares how much a team is “battle-tested.” Teams go from playing softies to beating real opponents all the time. They have advantages with this strategy: for example, they can win while playing vanilla to hide things from film
They line up and play football.

You might be right about battle tested and maybe I shouldn’t have used that wording to prove my point.

My point to be concise is the only way I, ME, can see Kansas covering is Texas sleeping and looking ahead. I’m not playing this game but I have my opinion. Kansas is Kansas and will be out classed when playing any opponent on this top 10 level. Just my take.

Its on ABC and the best teams cone to play when the lights are in. Talent wins here.
 
No they’re not giving up on the season, but Clemson always struggles at Syracuse.
Yea I agree a little bit but a lot of those lines were extremely high.

Clemson is 9-2 SU from the data I saw and at SYR,Clemson is 4-1 SU. Clemson could lose as they are not having an elite season. How good is Syracuse?

We are going to find out about Clemson here.

I like SYR when getting +10 or more. Not +7 or less.
 
So tech has moved off Wells at qb? I seriously have no clue bout this Drones fella, dunno who he is, never seen him play. I assume it can’t be any worse than Wells? Looks like he can move.
Wells is hurt and was never in consideration to play the last two games although he was listed as questionable. I would assume that they have moved on to Drones, but somehow Wells beat out Drones to be the starting QB to start the season. We will see this week as this is probably the first week that Wells is actually questionable.

It is hard to judge Drones with Ali Jennings being out both games he played and Lane missing one and not being 100% in the other. I think Jennings will be out for a while.
 
Yea I agree a little bit but a lot of those lines were extremely high.

Clemson is 9-2 SU from the data I saw and at SYR,Clemson is 4-1 SU. Clemson could lose as they are not having an elite season. How good is Syracuse?

We are going to find out about Clemson here.

I like SYR when getting +10 or more. Not +7 or less.

I actually think crazy good price to back clemson. Not like they been getting outplayed by the teams beating them as much as they doing things to cost them games, I don’t really think that a issue here cause cuse isn’t in the same zip code far as talent, cuse offense is not tough to stop for a d as good as clemson,, clemson should be able to do whatever they want offensively. There no freaking way I’d back cuse, I would need 2 scores to even think bout it and I’d prob still just pass!
 
I actually think crazy good price to back clemson. Not like they been getting outplayed by the teams beating them as much as they doing things to cost them games, I don’t really think that a issue here cause cuse isn’t in the same zip code far as talent, cuse offense is not tough to stop for a d as good as clemson,, clemson should be able to do whatever they want offensively. There no freaking way I’d back cuse, I would need 2 scores to even think bout it and I’d prob still just pass!
This is an opportunity for Clemson . Do they I think yes. We will see. Appreciate your comments.

:tiphat:
 
Ku winning wouldn’t be all that shocking to me, actually be more shocking if texas doesn’t stub their toe at some point!

It will be very shocking if Kansas wins this weekend. There are still quite a few players who were around 2 years ago when that embarrassment happened in Austin. That's not been lost on Sarkisian / the team. I'd be very surprised if they don't play really well on Saturday. If the case, the game won't be close.
 
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It will be very shocking if Kansas wins this weekend. There are still quite a few players who were around 2 years ago when that embarrassment happened in Austin. That's not been lost on Sarkisian / the team. I'd be very surprised if they don't play really well on Saturday. If the case, the game won't be close.
You guys are much higher in Texas than I am as I watched the Wyoming game and I saw a team that did enough to win after going into the 4th toed 10-10, but was not dominant against a team they should have crushed at home. I think Kansas actually has an offense, unlike wyoming, so as long as they don’t turn it over, they can give Texas a battle for at least three quarters and have the ability to win SU.
 
Was hard to expect complete focus against Wyoming after winning in Tuscaloosa. The team turned it one when needed and then routed a pretty bad Baylor team, as it should have.

My level of cynicism as a Texas grad is well documented over the years here. And there is still some there. But it's getting better. Like I said, there's reason to see focus against KU as that was arguably the worst home loss in history 2 years ago. Sans the QB position, there's an obvious disparity in athletes Saturday. If the Horns play well and it's within DD in the 4Q I'll take my hat off to KU. Nothing will ever surprise us in this sport, this much we know.
 
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It will be very shocking if Kansas wins this weekend. There are still quite a few players who were around 2 years ago when that embarrassment happened in Austin. That's not been lost on Sarkisian / the team. I'd be very surprised if they don't play really well on Saturday. If the case, the game won't be close.

I mean they 17 point dogs so obviously it would be a big upset but sorry, horns stubbing their toe has kinda become a right of passage for Stark teams until they prove otherwise to me and ku is incredibly well coached, has kids that have played a lot of football together in this offense. If horns gonna lose a game other than the Red river shootout which the only big 12 game where the talent is even close, i feel like this could be the one.

I’m not big into worrying about kids and coaches remembering 2 years ago and that playing a factor, they have lost games they shouldn’t have ever since stark got there! I could be totally wrong on this it just not something that concerns me. I think this interesting matchup as in I can argue this the best offense Horns have faced but there is no argument this the best d ku has faced!! I do see the path to your boys getting the blowout, I’d be lying if I didn’t say ku ability to block horns front and give Daniels time worries me, I have no doubt horns can hang a number on ku d. maybe If I think ku can hang around over makes as much sense?
 
After that performance last week, they need at least 30 to get back on Baby Ferentz not getting fired track.
I think this is Papa Ferentz's swan song. Lack of interest in running a modern offense, UO/USC/UCLA/UW joining the B1G, this season's performance being a referendum on retaining his son, changes to the game due to NIL/transfer portal. It will take years (and canning his son) to get this offense where it needs to be to be competitive (why would any talented WR go there right now?). I think this quits and rolls over and dies in a few weeks.
 
Clemson looks worse than reality.

Losses to FSU and Duke and the other games dont really count for anything. This is a prime time ABC TV game.

Syracuse? First 2 games dont mean much and wins over Army and Purdue ? yes they took care of business but Purdue is a Middle Big 10 team.

I really thing Clemson steps up and shows up big this week.
I agree. Was on Noles last week (and was fortunate to cash, though Dabo getting out-coached was part of the handicap) and will be on Clemson this week. Cuse offense doesn't have the athletes to threaten Clemson that FSU did, and Clemson offense should be able to lean on the run game and not be held back as much by their lack of explosiveness vs Cuse (as compared to FSU). Dabo will bang the "Clemson culture" drum and get his guys up for this game.
 
My 1st reaction was less than a fg at home feels cheap for beavers but then it crossed my mind how impressive Utah d has looked and I might not want to back DJ u vs this defense that might just be tough to run on! Tough game, gotta think utes very close to getting their qb back? That team been a mash unit so prob need some kind of injury report before getting involved. I would def be tempted to take the plus money if they getting some guys back?
Utah has their bye next week followed by Cal then at USC, Oregon, at Washington in 3 of 4 weeks. My sense is they're sitting Rising until after the bye. At worse, they'll be 4-1 (1-1 conference) with the real race for the conference title still ahead of them.
 
Kansas laying-9 to BYU impresses me that the books were able to hang this almost double digit spread and KU gets the job done.

The bad thing for KU is their previous opponents. Well we now know Illinois is struggling and if BYU was any good they should have covered against KU. I think Texas looks good this week so it appears they can kick Oklahoma in next weeks game. I like to think that if Texas plays well here I will get a better number on okla next week. I have Texas here as a small play. ABC doesn’t have too many upsets.
 
I like 4 favorites this week

Tejas -16.5
Notre Dame -5.5 Duke looking and playing well ! I got news for Duke this week. How does Duke get +12 in week 1 to Clemson and now only +5 to Notre Dame?
Clemson-7 Clemson not ranked in top 25? How does that happen?
Navy -4 S.Florida can you stop Navy’s attack? We fixin to find that out.
 
Was hard to expect complete focus against Wyoming after winning in Tuscaloosa. The team turned it one when needed and then routed a pretty bad Baylor team, as it should have.

My level of cynicism as a Texas grad is well documented over the years here. And there is still some there. But it's getting better. Like I said, there's reason to see focus against KU as that was arguably the worst home loss in history 2 years ago. Sans the QB position, there's an obvious disparity in athletes Saturday. If the Horns play well and it's within DD in the 4Q I'll take my hat off to KU. Nothing will ever surprise us in this sport, this much we know.
Yeah I hear ya as being a UNC alum I can relate in a lot of ways haha. Hard to figure out the mentality of guys that age as I’m not sure how much weight events of the past have on kids these days (yes, I know I sound old), as it just doesn’t feel like it used to, but that’s me without any factual data to back it up of course. Will be an interesting one for sure. Best of luck the rest of the way FC, always enjoy and appreciate healthy debate and discussion!
 
Frank is right about Tejas historical let downs but in my opinion they are still trending up this week and giving their fans hope for next weeks blow up.

KU is a nice team but no history of an upset here. They need to create a history of consistency in these big time matchups. Until i see it from Kansas i dont trust their schedule this season. This game would prove me wrong.

Last year at Kansas it was 55-14. Yea I know Kansas beat them in 2021 but Texas is now alert in this series. ABC motivates these kids most often.
 
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I like 4 favorites this week

Tejas -16.5
Notre Dame -5.5 Duke looking and playing well ! I got news for Duke this week. How does Duke get +12 in week 1 to Clemson and now only +5 to Notre Dame?
Clemson-7 Clemson not ranked in top 25? How does that happen?
Navy -4 S.Florida can you stop Navy’s attack? We fixin to find that out.
Took ND and Clemson at open and considered Navy as I think we got a little gift with how well USF did against Rice (I had Rice), but would prefer 2.5 vs 4. Not sure if USF has turned a corner or not, but Navy isn’t necessarily the best matchup for them.
 
Utah has their bye next week followed by Cal then at USC, Oregon, at Washington in 3 of 4 weeks. My sense is they're sitting Rising until after the bye. At worse, they'll be 4-1 (1-1 conference) with the real race for the conference title still ahead of them.

This game so tough, I’m scared to back DJ U vs this d if they can slow beavers run game down but yours and (sorry I go get who else brought this up) point is well taken bout utes having a bye after this and maybe waiting to get rising and others back, I don’t think they winning this game without rising seeing how little the offense has done without him! Clearly after watching last week think we gotta say beavs secondary has holes! Lol, but can utes take advantage?
 
Utah has their bye next week followed by Cal then at USC, Oregon, at Washington in 3 of 4 weeks. My sense is they're sitting Rising until after the bye. At worse, they'll be 4-1 (1-1 conference) with the real race for the conference title still ahead of them.

This game so tough, I’m scared to back DJ U vs this d if they can slow beavers run game down but yours and (sorry I go get who else brought this up) point is well taken bout utes having a bye after this and maybe waiting to get rising and others back, I don’t think they winning this game without rising seeing how little the offense has done without him! Clearly after watching last week think we gotta say beavs secondary has holes! Lol, but can utes take advantage?
Someone connected says Rising isn't playing and will be back for Cal. When they let Johnson pass last week he actually did well but his ball security is a major concern. He's put the ball on the ground a lot this year and he's been fortunate to get most of them back.

If Utah has a lead Whittingham will ugly this game up and rely on his defense and punter. If they have to score you'll see an offensive philosophy similar to Baylor 4th quarter.
 
Took ND and Clemson at open and considered Navy as I think we got a little gift with how well USF did against Rice (I had Rice), but would prefer 2.5 vs 4. Not sure if USF has turned a corner or not, but Navy isn’t necessarily the best matchup for them.
4 favorites if i lose Navy i hope 3-1 or split. We will see.
 
Any LSU or Ole Miss backers here? History has shown Miss doesnt do well as small home dogs against top 25 teams. I think Miss may need more than +2.5 here????

It doesn’t look like LSU is getting much respect after last weeks close game with ARK and the big opening week loss to FSU. This in an opportunity to get some vibes back.
 
Rankings
7.Washington
8.Oregon
9.USC
10.Utah

not all of these teams win this week. Most obvious is Utah. Oregon for sure and Washington 95% chance of winning. Maybe I was a week off with Colorado last week? I can’t post a thread on CU again lol.
 
Someone connected says Rising isn't playing and will be back for Cal. When they let Johnson pass last week he actually did well but his ball security is a major concern. He's put the ball on the ground a lot this year and he's been fortunate to get most of them back.

If Utah has a lead Whittingham will ugly this game up and rely on his defense and punter. If they have to score you'll see an offensive philosophy similar to Baylor 4th quarter.

That ball security thing has to be a massive concern entering what will be his 1st hostile environment correct? (I dunno if they been away from home at all? I know they havnt been anyplace like Corvallis!). I can’t imagine utes will be able to successfully play their version the 4 corners offense without him making throws either for early points or at least to pick up 1st downs as I don’t think they will be able to keep the ball for long stretches only running on what the strength of beavers d.

This is gonna be each teams rushing attacks biggest challenge by a mile, what utes d did to ucla rushing attack actually blew my mind! I knew it be tough to run but they were a stone wall!! That said ucla coming into ya’ll house w a qb with virtually no experience and a little bit different kind of rushing attack than they will see from beavers who I think have more explosive runners who hit the hole quicker and also a flat out nasty run blocking oline!

If utes can limit beavers run game and put it on DJ to have to throw in known passing situations I def like ya’ll chances of forcing a turnover or 2, he has thrown 3 picks the last 2 games and he barely been completing 50% his passes! Imo he a upgrade over last year qb but he still isn’t a guy I’d trust if they gotta put it in his hands against a good d I assume will show him different looks as well as make him uncomfortable! Ya’ll were able to really negate beavs backs last year, how much of that was jumping out to a lead, at home, and lack of respect for that qb? I’m not sure. I would think it be wise for beavs to try and hit a shot play or 2 early off run action, or get DJ going w some easy throws on early downs, something to make ya’ll respect the pass. I think DJ legs might be a bigger factor here as well!

That goes both ways, rising was the only utes player that had success on the ground in last years game, nobody else averaged even 4ypc. At beavers house and without riding I’d think it gonna be very tough sledding for ya’ll to run the ball. You guys only avg 3.7 a rush coming in and beavers run d has been fantastic, granted not having faced any great running teams.

Despite having a huge amount of respect for Utah coach/program and what they have been able to do going 4-0 despite all the injuries I just think this might be to big of a ask! I’ll never make the mistake of underestimating this team again but I think giving beavers the respect the have earned you gotta think they win this game playing against a utes team missing their qb and several other contributors.
 
Yes, Utah is missing a lot. They are rightfully dogged here. They just find ways to win though. Beavs minus the points will be a popular play and rightfully so.......
 
I’m not big into worrying about kids and coaches remembering 2 years ago and that playing a factor, they have lost games they shouldn’t have ever since stark got there! I could be totally wrong on this it just not something that concerns me.

Yeah, I'm not into revenge / remembering but I guess here in Austin it's something that's been mentioned more than one would expect. Coaches look for every angle to motivate, ask Sanders, Lanning, Day and whoever else. Especially ask Venables next week.

You never know with this stuff. One of my favorite SI stories a few years back on Kerr and Warriors. They had a Friday night game and were off until Monday. That Friday afternoon Kerr told the team (par.) "Play your asses off tonight, leave no doubt to the outcome, and you've got the weekend off". Guess what happened that we never heard about until years later? No idea if Kerr laid the points.
 
Any LSU or Ole Miss backers here? History has shown Miss doesnt do well as small home dogs against top 25 teams. I think Miss may need more than +2.5 here????

It doesn’t look like LSU is getting much respect after last weeks close game with ARK and the big opening week loss to FSU. This in an opportunity to get some vibes back.
I’m starting to lean LSU. FWIW I had Arkansas last week..

Just can’t have a complete defensive meltdown if you have an LSU ticket. That’s the bet, I feel like they can score on Ole Miss.
 
Yeah, I'm not into revenge / remembering but I guess here in Austin it's something that's been mentioned more than one would expect. Coaches look for every angle to motivate, ask Sanders, Lanning, Day and whoever else. Especially ask Venables next week.

You never know with this stuff. One of my favorite SI stories a few years back on Kerr and Warriors. They had a Friday night game and were off until Monday. That Friday afternoon Kerr told the team (par.) "Play your asses off tonight, leave no doubt to the outcome, and you've got the weekend off". Guess what happened that we never heard about until years later? No idea if Kerr laid the points.

I just can’t imagine texas any more motivated than ku, I prefer to try and cap these assuming we will get a high level of play from both team, obviously it often doesn’t play out that way but pretty tough to try and quantify how a lackluster effort will effect the stat line, lol.

Joel Klatt has made some good points about the horns and why he doesn’t expect some the inconsistencies of past years. While the 1st few years of Starks teams seemed to be more based off the play making talent, this team seems more reliant on toughness, winning the Los, defense, things that come with effort which should never be a problem assuming it not a flat spot in schedule or a team that can be overlooked. On the other hand when your teams success is based solely off skill players making plays that more a product of timing/execution, those things are much easier to have a bad day with.

To that point im a def worried about Texas getting pressure, that really the way I see this game could get away from ku if horns are all up in the backfield harassing Daniels. Ku actually been getting pressure on qb’s as well but I’m see this easily the most talented line they been up against:
 
Yeah that one has been weird as it was BYU -3 at one point then went down all the way to Cincy -2.5 but now back to BYU -2.5 in some spots. Not touching that one as I have no idea what’s going on with it.
Of course after I type that, I check and see Cincy -1 again haha
 
Can the LA Tech fade train get going again? UTEP looks to be pretty bad but had some p5 opponents last few weeks...

Texas guys around here would know a lot more about their expected form tonight than me...
 
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