Thur NFL

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
2008 Posted on CTG * --- 45-38; +8950

*includes a 4 unit loss on 11/17 in a cross sport teaser. first loss came in NFL so I graded it here fwiw. Just how I do it.
_______________________________________________

3 plays locked in:

Saints TT over 21, -120; 6 units WIN
Saints +3, -120; 4 units PUSH
Saints ML +125; 2 units LOSS
Saints -0.5, +100, 3rd quarter; 3 units. WIN

Had to pay some extra vig to get the numbers I wanted--not crazy about that but it is what it is.

Lots of good arguments in various threads, on both sides. CTG at its best.

Quick points:

  • Cold doesn't bother me at all.. Wind does..Appears just cold tonight. If that changes I may hedge off some.
  • Brees likes the climate controlled home dome for sure, but who wouldn't.. He also likes bad pass defenses that do not get to the QB. He doesn't get the first but he gets the second tonight.
  • Brees typical release point is around 1.2-1.4 seconds and it is very often the ball is gone in that time frame. (Opposite of Ben Roth. btw.) Bears pass rush is not getting anywhere near anyone under 2.0-2.5 seconds... uhh oh
  • Saints have all their offensive weapons now; Bears are missing defensive weapons and sucked vs pass even when they had them.
  • Kyle Orton, ankle should be better but in the cold, who knows. Think he might also prefer the game inside. Old man Tee*dub knows a few things about bad ankles in the cold.:seeya: I know he has not been the same QB since the tweak.. He is an average NFL QB and the more recent film opposing teams get on average NFL QB's the more below average they become.
  • Saints defense is underrated if you look closer. They aren't great, don't get me wrong, but in this spot I think they will be better than current perception.
  • Special teams always plays a factor in the cold it seems.. Advantage Saints.
Have a bunch more notes, so fire away if anyone has anything supporting or contradicting these plays..

Best play is the TT IMO as displayed by the units.. GL all.

On a pretty good HT TT run and if the Saints are down at half tonight I will almost certainly look at that.

:cheers:
 
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Great write-up man. This thread and 3rd&Long's pretty much has me convinced to get down on this game. I like the team total startegy for sure.

Cash 'em all.
 
T- get yourself on Matchbook, ML +142, and the +3 is -108

Agree with the TT being the way to go, I'm leaning under 45 for the game because I don't think the Bears live up to their end of the bargain.

GL
 
3rd & Long said:
T- get yourself on Matchbook, ML +142, and the +3 is -108
Click to expand...

Ya I know, I get screwed alot on my ML's --in fact almost always... I have lots of issues with regards to movement of money through certain sources esp. the amount I need to move.. So even though what I use now isn't always the best it works for me.. I can never be accused "fudging" the vig I play:D

Will say my HT TT's are alomst always better than the regular outlets.. So its a tradeoff..

Thanks for the heads up though bro.. And GL tonight..
 
I know, moving money around has become a major pain in the ass.
I use about 95% locals and save my matchbook account for ML dogs.
 
3rd & Long said:
I know, moving money around has become a major pain in the ass.
I use about 95% locals and save my matchbook account for ML dogs.
Click to expand...

That is a decent idea.. Blue Chip has mentioned that also.. Did he disappear btw?

Funny how that has worked isn't it.. Everyone said the days of the locals were long gone a couple years ago. Dinosaurs... Now, it is back to being the safest alternative.. And the locals have evolved -- most now have online clearing houses that can be accessed via mobile devices, which eliminates the need to sneak to the garage during christmas parties to make 2H wagers:4_6_202v:

I do miss Pinny though. But just can't screw with the Canadian address game to get them back..
 
B.A.R. said:
Great write-up man. This thread and 3rd&Long's pretty much has me convinced to get down on this game. I like the team total startegy for sure.

Cash 'em all.
Click to expand...

Leaning the other way, but I agree with what Big Money has to say.

Both of you fuckers are rock solid.

Good Luck T, love that TT.
 
on the +3 as well tee. like seeing you there with allot invested. gl to us. thanks for the thoughts posted, always appreciated.
 
Tee, I have a choice of playing Forte tonight or wait for Chris Johnson vs the Browns on Sunday in my fantasy playoff. Who would you take? Awful tempting to take Forte against this Saints D.
 
which eliminates the need to sneak to the garage during christmas parties to make 2H wagers:4_6_202v:

it's so good to have a board/chat room with people that understand these dilemmas...:shake:
 
wiseplayer said:
Tee, I have a choice of playing Forte tonight or wait for Chris Johnson vs the Browns on Sunday in my fantasy playoff. Who would you take? Awful tempting to take Forte against this Saints D.
Click to expand...

Sorry bro but I am the last guy to ask a fantasy question of.. Having said that, I would worry that the Saints run out to a lead making Bears one dimensional.. Also would worry about possible Saints gameplan to load up to stop the run.. Their success against AP was notable. GL
 
Tee,

GL tonight. I've been mulling over Saints TT for awhile now. I brought this up in Sammy's thread yesterday and maybe you'll have an answer.

The Greek yesterday:
Total 45
Spread 3

Saints TT 21.5(115)
Bears TT 23.5(115)

So we have 45 points, but only a 2 point spread going by these numbers. Does this mean anything to you or am I making something out of nothing?
 
CrimsonK said:
Tee,

GL tonight. I've been mulling over Saints TT for awhile now. I brought this up in Sammy's thread yesterday and maybe you'll have an answer.

The Greek yesterday:
Total 45
Spread 3

Saints TT 21.5(115)
Bears TT 23.5(115)

So we have 45 points, but only a 2 point spread going by these numbers. Does this mean anything to you or am I making something out of nothing?
Click to expand...

Vig adjusted. Its not a true -3 since its ++ money
 
45 /2 = 22.5

Spread is 3 /2 = 1.5 so adjust each side by 1.5 pts

NO 21
Chi 24

Since its a soft -3 they are basically hedging themselves by keeping it off key numbers IMO....therefore

NO 21.5
CHI 23.5
 
yup already grabbed NO +3 last night, with a lil NO ml + over 45 parlay.....


nice to see you on the saints tonight too tee... GL! :shake:
 
tee*dub said:
That is a decent idea.. Blue Chip has mentioned that also.. Did he disappear btw?

Funny how that has worked isn't it.. Everyone said the days of the locals were long gone a couple years ago. Dinosaurs... Now, it is back to being the safest alternative.. And the locals have evolved -- most now have online clearing houses that can be accessed via mobile devices, which eliminates the need to sneak to the garage during christmas parties to make 2H wagers:4_6_202v:

I do miss Pinny though. But just can't screw with the Canadian address game to get them back..
Click to expand...

Yeah I dont know why they banned Americans in the first place--
Where there is a will there is a way. If you know someone in Canada, I would get them to set it up for you, that way everything is on the up and up, canadian address, canadian funds, funds are paid in canada.

Speaking of sneaking out, one of my buddies is a Doctor, and he plays and was sneaking into the washroom of a restaurant to get updates on the Raptors game yesterday, it was hilarious he is whispering and asking for updates, a true degenerate. He even calls in between seeing patients lol its hilarious.

Todays NFL touchdowns happen pretty fast anyway, at certain points the NFL DB's are pretty poor, so the total of 21 seems reasonable to me, I think it is low due to weather, cause if you look at it Bears are not holding anyone to under 21 of late- Saints are scoring more than 21ish the last 4 and almost every game-

Saints had 2 bad games in Carolina and Atlanta, but those 2 home teams are very good, and Saints had no BUSH and SHOCKEY I believe- now they are full strength--

Leaning the team total over, I do like that bet and think it may be the best bet out of the group.
 
lkk66 said:
what do you think on TT ov 21.5 +100
Click to expand...

Like it a lot less obviously, but a 6 unit wager for me on a 21 TT means I think the Saints have a good chance to get to 28-31. Real good..

Shop around. Think 21 at increased vig is still out there...

Also , understand my TT is partially a hedge also... In otherwords, if I were only playing the TT it would probably be in the 4 unit range..

Reason/hedge-- there is a chance, the bears run all over the Saints and go out to a big lead.. In that case my 21 TT is almost certainly good. There is also a chance this turns into a back and forth scorefest that comes down to last possession.. In that case my 21 TT is also good.. So I am covering I few things I don't think will happen, but certainly could happen.. There is also a very very very slim chance this is a low scoring game and the Bears win.. In that case I am fucked.. Don't see that happening and if it does, I lost the first 3 bets of my next 10,000 wagers.:popcorn:

I have it capped Saints 31- Bears 17/21

:shake:
 
Also Tee Saints wont go for long field goals, so going for it on 4 downs inside lets say the 35 yard line of Bears to the 25 yard line of the Bears means they have 4 downs to pick up the first down-

This will result in probably at least 1 if not 2 times where a team would go for 3 points and Saints will pick up the first down on a 4th down gamble and get 7 points on that drive helkping the team total. bears will tire out also if Saints keep going for it on 4th down inside their zone-

That comment about the bears running all over the Saints makes me think that this game will have scoring, i mean why not? Both offenses are capable and the defenses sort of are a bad match for the opposing offenses--

Chicago scores at home, they get in the 20's and Orleans scores also everywhere, so I mean this total of 44.5 is low due to bad weather concerns in Chicago-

iF someone lives in chicago if they can go outside and run around a bit and throw the football around a but it would help us understand the effect it will have tonight.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
iF someone lives in chicago if they can go outside and run around a bit and throw the football around a but it would help us understand the effect it will have tonight.
Click to expand...

:36_11_6:

Also if there are any big gangly looking white guys with bad ankles and a scraggly beard--- please also join the guy Sammy just sent out - and tell us how the bad ankle feels in the cold..:shake:
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Speaking of sneaking out, one of my buddies is a Doctor, and he plays and was sneaking into the washroom of a restaurant to get updates on the Raptors game yesterday, it was hilarious he is whispering and asking for updates, a true degenerate. He even calls in between seeing patients lol its hilarious.

.
Click to expand...

Hope he is not a heart surgeon in So Fla.:23_31_4:
 
great thread fellas. I played the saints +3 -110. I like the TT play, but my book is giving 21.5 +100, but thinking about playing it cause i also think the saints hit at least 24 points tonight. reggie bush should have a good game against the bears and i think that the bears will give up some big plays. i'm not sold on their D still. Brees has been on target most of the season and with his WRs back in Colston and Henderson and Bush, I think he will be able to spread the ball around. McAllister should get a few yards and when they drop back to play the WRs, he should be able to find some holes in the middle. Pierre Thomas has been a surprise and should help the saints with the running game and KO returns. Orton, I dont think he will get the ball to his WRs as much and if the Saints jump out to a 2 poss. lead, the bears will become 1 demensional, just like you point out. BOL on the play as I think this board is on the saints tonight.

Saints 27
Bears 20
 
One thing Tee---

Brees does get rid of the ball in 1.2 seconds in home games at the dome, but on the road he does not get rid of the ball that fast, he hangs on to it considerably longer as it seems, their plays are stimied on the road- He usually scrambles and seems like he is always being harrassed by D lineman.

At home he gets rid of it in 1.2 seconds because the offense is in rythm and he is a machine, on the road something is wrong with this team overall, the offense does not play at well and the Defense basically plays scared on the road-

I think Saints D will win this game if they win it, they will have to stop ORTON, because I mean Brees has shown he cannot win a game with the offense on the road, it is proven he always comes up short on the road, last game last year vs Bears, 2006 NFC Championship game, it is his DEFENSE who never bails him out and helps him WIN a game--

I like your team total bet, I wish I could get a 21- However for this reason I stated above I believe its more mental for the Saints, they cannot win on the road because their Defense cannot go into a hostile environment and own a team. Thats what it takes to win at this time of the year-
 
good post wizard... and GL

updated my posted record.. Not where I'd like it but still decent.. Some work to do starting tonight..

2008 Posted on CTG--- 45-38; +8950
 
Good Luck Tee .

Team Total folks....

The total is running and people probably will have to settle for 21.5 on the NO TT . Would just wait it out and see if there is a drop latter on as long as you get it below 23....
 
DC_DAWG FAN said:
would a teaser be a sucker bet here? Thinking Saints +9 and Over 40 would be a lock
Click to expand...

Not much of a teaser player bro. I do play them but I think if I look back my win percentage is much lower than regular ATS plays.. The one situation I do use them is to tease a 6 or 7 pt fav I really like down to a pick. But always be sure to check the ML parlay odds first as sometimes that is a better way to go.. That is the only time I use teasers for the most part and that situation doesn't apply tonight as I like the dog.. Looks good though.. But they always do.. My mentor always said-- tease your pets, not your bets.. Always stuck in my mind.

I find people usually play teasers when they can't make up their mind on which side to play.. Thats a good game to just watch.. But won't get into a serman on teasers , as many are quite successful on them..

MY saying-- if it is exotic and the casino offers it.. Run.:cheers:
 
DC_DAWG FAN said:
would a teaser be a sucker bet here? Thinking Saints +9 and Over 40 would be a lock
Click to expand...

welcome to the forum btw Dawg.

We'd like to help you learn
To help yourself.
Look around you. All you see
Are sympathetic eyes.
Stroll around the grounds
Until you feel at home.
__________________
Name the song and band this came from and you win a prize from the JoeBren collection..
 
My only concern would be the cold & the ball being like catching a hard brick. Cold hands hard ball.....I don't know....I just recall when the games are played in this kind of weather the players have a really hard time holding onto it when it is thrown......I don't think the pass is going to work to well for either team....so alot of carries will be played...so which team is the best one for running the ball?????
 
tee*dub said:
welcome to the forum btw Dawg.

We'd like to help you learn
To help yourself.
Look around you. All you see
Are sympathetic eyes.
Stroll around the grounds
Until you feel at home.
__________________
Name the song and band this came from and you win a prize from the JoeBren collection..
Click to expand...

Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? our nation turns its lonely eyes to you...
 
and that would be the Funkel and co.

thanks for the correction 3rd....brain fart:popcorn:
 
Last edited:
My Locks tonight

Take the Saints money line 5 units. New Orleans will be up a score by half. Something like 17-13. In the second half the saints run away with a 10 plus margin of victory.

Also take the Utah Jazz Money line at home over Portland. Yes they squeeked by the wolves on Tuesday but I like the Jazz by 5 at home tonight.

Parlay both money line if you wanna make some big gucks
 
3rd & Long said:
Simon & Garfunkel, Mrs Robinson.

I'm old, I own this cd.
Click to expand...

You win a JoeBren Sports weather scout hooded sweatshirt.. I'll get it in the mail right away. Picked up a couple boxes at the JoeBren Sports liquidation sale:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
2008 Posted on CTG * --- 45-38; +8950

*includes a 4 unit loss on 11/17 in a cross sport teaser. first loss came in NFL so I graded it here fwiw. Just how I do it.
_______________________________________________

3 plays locked in:

Saints TT over 21, -120; 6 units
Saints +3, -120; 4 units
Saints ML +125; 2 units

Had to pay some extra vig to get the numbers I wanted--not crazy about that but it is what it is.

Lots of good arguments in various threads, on both sides. CTG at its best.

Quick points:

  • Cold doesn't bother me at all.. Wind does..Appears just cold tonight. If that changes I may hedge off some.
  • Brees likes the climate controlled home dome for sure, but who wouldn't.. He also likes bad pass defenses that do not get to the QB. He doesn't get the first but he gets the second tonight.
  • Brees typical release point is around 1.2-1.4 seconds and it is very often the ball is gone in that time frame. (Opposite of Ben Roth. btw.) Bears pass rush is not getting anywhere near anyone under 2.0-2.5 seconds... uhh oh
  • Saints have all their offensive weapons now; Bears are missing defensive weapons and sucked vs pass even when they had them.
  • Kyle Orton, ankle should be better but in the cold, who knows. Think he might also prefer the game inside. Old man Tee*dub knows a few things about bad ankles in the cold.:seeya: I know he has not been the same QB since the tweak.. He is an average NFL QB and the more recent film opposing teams get on average NFL QB's the more below average they become.
  • Saints defense is underrated if you look closer. They aren't great, don't get me wrong, but in this spot I think they will be better than current perception.
  • Special teams always plays a factor in the cold it seems.. Advantage Saints.
Have a bunch more notes, so fire away if anyone has anything supporting or contradicting these plays..

Best play is the TT IMO as displayed by the units.. GL all.

On a pretty good HT TT run and if the Saints are down at half tonight I will almost certainly look at that.

:cheers:
Click to expand...
on the other side of ya tonight bro! :pillow:
 
Oh yeah, I too have a bad ankle (surgery) and it kills me in the cold Pittsburgh winters....bad knee too...football injuries.
 
OK.. interesting game.. Oddly still like all my plays ..

adding:

NO -0.5, +100, 3rd quarter; 3 units. WIN

They made the 2H tt -150 juice so Ill pass.. Pussy way to do it IMO for books as it does not draw money from most of the big money players.. oh well
 
Last edited:
Nice work.

Bought off on ML and Spread as it was going to OT so just cashed 4 units on the TT. Oh yeah.

Hit my 2 unit play in CBB too. Keep rollin.
 
Thanks for the advice and welcome. Been following your posts for a few mnths...figured I would get involved. Sort of a newbie to the sports gambling world...keeps things interesting though. Won on my Saints teaser last night, but everyone always tells me teasers are no good. I guess I just feel safer doing the teasers. But maybe you are right..I need to just go with hte gut and play the money lines, take the points, etc. Still learning...
 
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