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JonStarks

Pretty much a regular
Figured I’d start a thread..I can’t wait for this..hoping to watch almost every swing via Espn+ and then the main feed..should be an awesome tourney.

I said this last week and I ended up hitting both plays..but I’m going to say it again..this now feels like the toughest tourney to cap so far in 2023. Not a ton of reliable history at this place. A lot of guys who generally play well here are now on LIV. A lot of the top ranked golfers have horrible track records here. Not a ton of consistency. Here are my favorite plays thus far that I’ve already played..
 
John Rahm - Top 10 +115

Simple. I think he wins this tourney and you can rarely get a good price on him..gotta take this. The best golfer on earth fell apart last weekend, which I think might have been the best thing we could have hoped for at this event. Tough to stay motivated when you are on top..meanwhile on Sunday afternoon, all he probably heard was “all of the top guys are in contention, besides Rahm”. Don’t waken the sleeping giant. I think he’s going to be hungry to get back on top and he has a pretty good track record here. I like this spot a alot.

Keegan Bradley - Top 20 +200

Here is where I lose all credibility..but my prediction for this weekend is Rahm beats Bradley by two strokes to win the tourney. Keegan is playing good, consistent golf. Confidence is growing and he usually plays well at TPC. Perfect timing for him to hoist the trophy. I’ll also be playing him top 40 once dkng releases the top 40 lines.

Justin Thomas- Top 20 even

Would love to see more consistency from him in general..feels like he’s been Wild Thing in some rounds..but he’s won here before..always like him on Florida courses as well. JT is a gamer. This is a big won. He’ll be pissed after disappearing on Sunday at the API. He could definitely win this, so I really like him Top 20 at even money.
 
Rahm is +765 at my shop to win the tourney. Seems too short to bet it, but he’s got a good chance to be there at the end. Hoping to maybe get a better live number during 1st round or 2…but always run the risk of him being at the top and those odds shrinking.
 
haha I definitely don’t want any threads for myself..saw that no one started one yet, and I’m overly excited for this, so figured I’d start it up. Everyone is free to share their plays or thoughts here..would be great
 
jedi ninja said:
Rahm is +765 at my shop to win the tourney. Seems too short to bet it, but he’s got a good chance to be there at the end. Hoping to maybe get a better live number during 1st round or 2…but always run the risk of him being at the top and those odds shrinking.
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I rarely bet golf and I know more comes into consideration with player form etc, but what’s a good number to win a tourney? Seems if one goes top 10 finish, a sprinkle on +765 seems decent to win.
 
twinkie13 said:
I rarely bet golf and I know more comes into consideration with player form etc, but what’s a good number to win a tourney? Seems if one goes top 10 finish, a sprinkle on +765 seems decent to win.
Click to expand...

Not that it's a horrible option or odds, but anything under +1000 just doesn't seem great odds to me. Maybe it's just me, but there are a bunch of really good golfers who can win week in and week out, and I've found much more success live betting at better odds. I like to bet 4-5 guys each week to win, maybe after the first round or 2...and I've done very well thus far this year with that strategy. Homa, Scheffler, and Kirk (not at the best odds here but still a small profit), then most recently J.Y. Ko on the LPGA. Betting maybe .25 units on each so even if you lose them all you're down a unit or so...it's been fun thus far this season.
 
jedi ninja said:
Not that it's a horrible option or odds, but anything under +1000 just doesn't seem great odds to me. Maybe it's just me, but there are a bunch of really good golfers who can win week in and week out, and I've found much more success live betting at better odds. I like to bet 4-5 guys each week to win, maybe after the first round or 2...and I've done very well thus far this year with that strategy. Homa, Scheffler, and Kirk (not at the best odds here but still a small profit), then most recently J.Y. Ko on the LPGA. Betting maybe .25 units on each so even if you lose them all you're down a unit or so...it's been fun thus far this season.
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I'm pretty much with you on the odds. I've also found that I do better with matchups and top 5/10/20 type bets. I don't think there will ever be another run like Tiger's, where he was minus odds to win several times, but these guys go on runs like Rahm this year, Scheffler last year, etc where betting them at +650-950 is still the right bet
 
Looking forward to this tourney and will be glued to the tube all week long. Going to keep number of plays to a minimum but larger in value. I think JT starts slow but picks it up through the week, will be looking to add to his play if he falls behind.

Fargiveness top 10 -110 3u
JT top 10 +188 3u
D. Riley top 40 +150 3u
Add- Mitchell & Fowler both top 40 +190 2u
 
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According to DataGolf, course history at TPC Sawgrass is the 7th most predictive on Tour.

Most Important Stats For Success at the PLAYERS Championship​

*In order of importance

  • SG: APP
  • Good Drive %
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Scrambling
  • SG: ARG
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • SG: Putting (overall)
  • Par 4 Scoring
  • Birdie or Better%
  • SG: Total in Difficult Fields
 
Tournament matchups:

Straka -130 vs Rodgers: Straka had a top 10 here last year. Rodgers doesn’t have the best history at this venue. Playing the horse for course angle…

Kisner +115 vs Hodges: Kisner has been a dumpster fire this year so proceed with caution. This is a play on fading Hodges. This is his 5th tournament in a row. Last week he really struggled and shot 76-77. I don’t have stats on this angle, but I think it’s rare for a touring pro to play this many events in a row. Unless your name is Im. I’ll take a swing on a guy who really needs a solid week at plus money…

First round matchup

Griffin -115 vs Hodges: see above for the reasons I am fading Hodges

So I probably just made Hodges the first round leader in the clubhouse lol... I never play first round matchups but I’m committing to this fade angle. Best of luck everyone and enjoy the tournament. Thank you to all who are posting thoughts and plays in the golf forum…
 
Grabbed the "field" live at +280 on BetOnline...26 golfers listed, a bunch currently in the top 10 that are included in "field":

Min Woo
Ramey
McCarthy
Montgomery
Bez
Billy Ho
Baddely
 
Just added 1..in game on dkng..

Scottie Scheffler - Top 10- -150

Looks really good today..super consistent..and some of those names above him are going to fall like a rock before Sunday.
 
JonStarks said:
Just added 1..in game on dkng..

Scottie Scheffler - Top 10- -150

Looks really good today..super consistent..and some of those names above him are going to fall like a rock before Sunday.
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Does DK have props and top 10/20/40 live throughout the tourney?

I'm sweating 17...grabbed a couple of "ace on 17" props last night -- 2 or more at 10-1 and 3 or more at 125-1
 
chipnotized said:
Does DK have props and top 10/20/40 live throughout the tourney?

I'm sweating 17...grabbed a couple of "ace on 17" props last night -- 2 or more at 10-1 and 3 or more at 125-1
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They have top 10 and 20 live

At least you already got one ace out of the way
 
KJ said:
They have top 10 and 20 live

At least you already got one ace out of the way
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I assume they're dead heat?

Yeah, conditions and pin placement were favorable this morning. A few more cracks at cashing the 2 ticket before the pin moves...maybe even the 3 :p
 
chipnotized said:
Does DK have props and top 10/20/40 live throughout the tourney?

I'm sweating 17...grabbed a couple of "ace on 17" props last night -- 2 or more at 10-1 and 3 or more at 125-1
Click to expand...
As KJ mentioned..you can bet in game top 10 and 20 through Sunday..top 40 goes away as soon as rd 1 starts
 
Managed to get a wager in when Heritage dropped the live odds on Ramey Rd1 leader to -330 when JT and Kuchar opened with birdies....way less than a 25% chance somebody beats a 64 in the afternoon flight.
 
Day 1 just about in the books…

Feel pretty good overall about my plays. The only one that looks dead is Lowry top 40. Would like to see Justin Thomas have a round where he shoots some pars..feels like its been a rollercoaster with him lately..bogey, birdie, double, eagle..calm down bud..make the cut and climb the leaderboard this weekend.

Will really zone in on Rahm, Keegan, and Scheffler now. Rahm -165 top 20 is attractive. Keegan top 20 +115 looks enticing. Only thing holding me off from continuing to load up on Rahm is those two rounds of his last weekend. He is human after all. Looking forward to tomorrow.
 
Would love to see some of the big dogs miss the cut..Rory, Finau, Cantlay, Zalatoris..love all of these guys, but if some of the stars miss out on the weekend, makes it more comfortable to load up on Rahm and Scheffler. Ramey, Lee, Bez, Griffin…not convinced any of these guys will be on the first page come Sunday.
 
Been in meetings all morning and haven't watched a lick but it appears this course is kicking ass and taking names, just like my bankroll is taking a beating.

Last stab for today- Svenson v. Dahmen, Streb +130 5u

GL
 
laopadak said:
Been in meetings all morning and haven't watched a lick but it appears this course is kicking ass and taking names, just like my bankroll is taking a beating.

Last stab for today- Svenson v. Dahmen, Streb +130 5u

GL
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Day and Hov at. -4 gotta feel great. This afternoon will be harder.

Afternoon tee times best hope rain comes earlier.
 
Min Woo Lee +1200 to be leading after Rd 2

...2 or 3 under will be a great score this afternoon. Griffin in the clubhouse at -6 and 3rd fave was telling.
 
I do just want to throw out a quick apology. I try be useful and add valuable info/input to this forum. So far this season I’ve been able to do that most of the time. Easily worst tournament of the season for me so far. Came into today feeling really good about my position and plays.

Keegan imploding was kind of shocking/frustrating. -2 first round, +6 second round..scratching my head. I am speechless about Rahm. Must have known I bet him and decided to take a weekend off.
 
I have Scheffler pretty big Top 10..which I like alot and tbere is no more value there..lines are so juiced.

what I’ll be looking to do this weekend..betting on guys like Schauffle, Zalatoris..maybe a few others..studs who are lurking in the back of the pack but can easily make a run into the top 20. Like Cam Young to do something similar as well.
 
JonStarks said:
I do just want to throw out a quick apology. I try be useful and add valuable info/input to this forum. So far this season I’ve been able to do that most of the time. Easily worst tournament of the season for me so far. Came into today feeling really good about my position and plays.

Keegan imploding was kind of shocking/frustrating. -2 first round, +6 second round..scratching my head. I am speechless about Rahm. Must have known I bet him and decided to take a weekend off.
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This is never an easy betting tournament.

Plus, these conditions are very tough. US Open esque.
 
Is there an easy betting tournament lol?

Today kinda felt like my actual golf game..just when I think I’m getting good at this..I get humbled and am reminded why I’m a 14 handicap.
 
Did anyone see match ups posted for the 2nd round? I looked last night but nothing was posted. Hodges fade worked out nicely so far… I’m amazed at just how difficult 17 is for these guys.
 
RBTrojan said:
Did anyone see match ups posted for the 2nd round? I looked last night but nothing was posted. Hodges fade worked out nicely so far… I’m amazed at just how difficult 17 is for these guys.
Click to expand...
They don't understand the wind up top. That's big part of it.
 
RBTrojan said:
Did anyone see match ups posted for the 2nd round? I looked last night but nothing was posted. Hodges fade worked out nicely so far… I’m amazed at just how difficult 17 is for these guys.
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I didn't look.

I was mad I didn't tail the Hodges fade. Great stuff.
 
B.A.R. said:
I didn't look.

I was mad I didn't tail the Hodges fade. Great stuff.
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Hodges fade was gold. I wanted to fade him second round, but nothing was posted. I’m sorry you missed it… I’ll be keeping an eye on that angle going forward.
 
If anyone likes to play top 20..there is some major value out there right now heading into tomorrow..all dkng lines current

Cantlay Top 20 -110 (1 stroke back)
Homa Top 20 +125 (2 strokes back)
Cam Young Top 20 +200 (2 strokes back)
Zalatoris Top 20 +240 (3 strokes back)
Schauffle Top 20 +210 (3 strokes back)

Cantlay and Cam Young still have to finish their 2nd rd, which makes them riskier imo. Zal, Schauff, and Home are all done which I think is an advantage. Gotta imagine there will be a ton of volatility thru Sunday. A lot of guys in the top 20-30 who are due to return to the mean and fall a bit (like Ramey today). Would think the top guys have a little more consistency and make their moves over the weekend. Some attractive value there.
 
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