The Open... Discussion Thread

a number of "regular" PGA players listed for Scottish Open this week. somewhat surprised "The Mole" (Francesco Molinari) NOT one of them. he is doing the John Deere Classic PGA event instead


Justin Rose (2014 winner @ Royal Aberdeen)
Rickie Fowler (2015 winner @ this years course Gullian GC)
Patrick Reed
Hideki Matsuyama
Henrik Stenson
Phil Mickelson (2013 winner @ Castle Stuart playoff with Branden Grace. WON British Open the next week)
Matt Kuchar
ian Poulter
Louis Oosthuizen
Charley Hoffman
Cameron Smith
Peter Uihlein
Kevin Chappell
Luke List
Martin Laird
 
LeRinkRat said:
a number of "regular" PGA players listed for Scottish Open this week. somewhat surprised "The Mole" (Francesco Molinari) NOT one of them. he is doing the John Deere Classic PGA event instead


Justin Rose (2014 winner @ Royal Aberdeen)
Rickie Fowler (2015 winner @ this years course Gullian GC)
Patrick Reed
Hideki Matsuyama
Henrik Stenson
Phil Mickelson (2013 winner @ Castle Stuart playoff with Branden Grace. WON British Open the next week)
Matt Kuchar
ian Poulter
Louis Oosthuizen
Charley Hoffman
Cameron Smith
Peter Uihlein
Kevin Chappell
Luke List
Martin Laird
Click to expand...


I believe Stenson has WD from Scottish Open and is questionable to play Carnoustie
 
gps_3 said:
I believe Stenson has WD from Scottish Open and is questionable to play Carnoustie
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you may be correct. his name NOT on the Scottish Open players list or has "to win" odds. Englishman Andy "Beef" Johnston also missing.

LOT of "HOT DOGS" going to "Car-Nasty"

Russell Knox STILL 125-1 @ Cantor Gaming BUT as low as 60-1 other Las Vegas sportsbooks. WIN Irish Open [-14] playoff T-2nd Open de France [-6] T-12th US Open [+8]

Ryan Fox 150-1 @ Westgate one of the longest drivers on the Euro Tour got 2nd Irish Open [-14] only because Knox hit TWO "gagger" 40 foot putts on #18 in regulation and 1st playoff hole to WIN. also had T-8th Italian Open [-6] and T-3rd Maybank [-18] early season

Jorge Campillo opened 500-1 current 250-1 @ Westgate. 3rd Irish Open [-13] with a [-7] final round T-8th Open de France [-4]. "George" has 5 other top five finishes in his previous 10 tourneys before the last two and only one CUT

Julian Suri 150-1 @ Westgate. 27th Irish Open [-3[ T-2nd Open de France [-6] T-2nd Hong Kong [-10] early season. Euro Tour winner @ Made in Denmark last season

Chris Wood 125-1 @ Westgate T-14th Irish Open [-6] T-2nd Open de France [-6] "Woody" has come on some lately with only one CUT in his last 9 tourneys and also got 2nd Oman Open [-14] early season

Matt Wallace 300-1 @ Westgate. OK so "WALL-E" a CUT Irish Open and Open de France BUT WON BMW International in Germany before those two. also T-3rd China Open [-16] and WON Indian Open [-11] this season

my "you bet your bollocks" favorite. Jon Rahm 25-1 @ William-Hill. the "Big Basque Bomber" T-4th Irish Open [-12] with a [-6] final round T-5th Open de France CUT US Open but WIN Open de Espana [-20] 4th Masters [-11]. as long as "Rahmbo" can keep his temper in check and NOT get frustrated with the R&A course set up like he did @ Shinnecock he has an excellent chance :shake:
 
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B.A.R. said:
Precursor this week with the Scottish Open. As always, keep your eye on this one...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1016451159739990019
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Some shit from last year. Don't have time for stats preview, but Carnoustie is the toughest venue if the wind shows up. But we've been waiting for 2 years for weather to arrive in a major and it hasn't. Lawrie won here with 6 over. Harrington was -9, 2 clear, in 2007 and double bogied the 72nd. Ended up beating Sergio in the play off. Andreas Romero finished bogey-bogey to lose by a shot. Holes 15-18 are some of the best closing in golf and should be great next Sunday.

Bunkers are tough, holes are long so the driver will come out a fair bit. English summer has been hot and dry (by their standards), so hopefully some rain in the next week to toughen up the rough
 
forgot to list Francesco Molinari 60-1 (17/1037) bet two weeks ago. is current best 40-1 @ South Point. "The Mole" has been "hot as Chinese Mustard" lately with WIN National [-21] T-25th US Open [+12] 2nd Italian Open [-21] and WIN BMW PGA [-17]

also just added Luke List 250-1 (4/1004) 1st round leader Scottish Open [-7]. qualified "First 5 PGA TOUR members and any PGA TOUR members tying for 5th place, not exempt in the top 20 of the PGA TOUR FedExCup Points List for 2018 on completion of the 2018 Travelers Championship" along with Chesson Hadley and Patton Kizzire

AND Lee Westwood 125-1 (8/1008) "Big Bear" tied 2nd 1st round Scottish Open [-6] T-19th last week in Ireland [-5] and T-5th Italian Open [-17] PLUS Dylan Frittelli 250-1 (4/1004) tied 7th 1st round Scottish Open [-5] along with T-14th Irish Open [-6] and T-12th Open de France [-3] his last two weeks :shake:
 
Alan Tongue said:
Some shit from last year. Don't have time for stats preview, but Carnoustie is the toughest venue if the wind shows up. But we've been waiting for 2 years for weather to arrive in a major and it hasn't. Lawrie won here with 6 over. Harrington was -9, 2 clear, in 2007 and double bogied the 72nd. Ended up beating Sergio in the play off. Andreas Romero finished bogey-bogey to lose by a shot. Holes 15-18 are some of the best closing in golf and should be great next Sunday.

Bunkers are tough, holes are long so the driver will come out a fair bit. English summer has been hot and dry (by their standards), so hopefully some rain in the next week to toughen up the rough
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this is what I meant by some shit from last year http://cappingthegame.com/forum/index.php?threads/the-open-championship.130381/
 
Some tidbits from a Tiger article about his first look at Carnoustie...


If Sunday's small sample size is an indication, he won't be needing the driver much this week. He hit just one on the first hole, and that was only after first hitting a 2-iron off the tee.

The course is already rife with examples of players finding the ball going extraordinary distances, whether it be due to the wind or the firm and fast conditions. For example, Woods hit a 7-iron off the No. 4 tee to position himself short of bunkers; it went 215 yards. His normal distance with that club is 180.

"Right now the fairways are faster than the greens," he said. "I am sure they will probably speed the greens up a touch, but I'm sure this will be one of those weeks where the fairways are a little quicker than the greens."


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


As for adjusting to the links style of play and learning how far to hit shots on each hole, Woods said: "It is mainly trajectory. You can get the same numbers [yardages] with different trajectories. That's what is going to be important, how hot you want the ball coming into the fairways. You can really make the ball roll 60, 70, 80 yards. Is it really worth it or not? Some of the holes, can you carry bunkers? It is a risk/reward golf course, and the way it is set up right now, it is going to play very narrow because it is so fast."
 
^^^ IF the conditions are anything like this weeks Scottish Open they will tear "Car-Nasty" apart. they were hitting drives almost 400 yards at Gullian GC
 
The only way Snedeker can hit 427 is if hits a downhill road with a gale at his back. If the greens dry out like the fairways then scrambling and putting wins this
 
It's insane what the golfers are saying about the golf course. It appears they've watered the greens, and made them soft and approachable, but the fairways are as hard as Dirk Diggler after a 2 day coke bender. Initial thoughts may be that it gives the bombers the advantage, but I think it's going to be the opposite. Someone like DJ is used to driving it a mile. But the long drives may give more of an advantage to the shorter guys who are used to driving it short, and then end up with extended rollage. If Dj and Koepka can keep it in the fairway, they have an advantage, but I'm looking at guys like Tyrell Hatton, Ian Poulter, Rickie Fowler, and maybe even guys like Brian Harman and Webb Simpson to finish good. Those guys put it in the fairway, and with the extended roll I love their games around the green.

The obvious picks to win are the bombers, but I think the setup is really interesting for some of these guys mentioned above to win head to head matchups, and be great values in DK.

#my2cents
 
^^^ Spot on man. It will be about controlling where the ball goes. Some of the bombers could be off target and leave it in areas not all that great. This should be fascinating.
 
Is anyone else very tempted to fade Bryson this week? Sullivan has been solid of late. Bryson has that possible injury issue...
 
RBTrojan said:
Is anyone else very tempted to fade Bryson this week? Sullivan has been solid of late. Bryson has that possible injury issue...
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have NOT seen a DeChambeau match play yet at either William-Hill or Westgate. waiting on South Point who usually list on Thusdays
 
I've got Bryson -130 vs Sullivan and Adam Scott -135 vs Bryson

Very tempted to fade Day in the wind.. He has one way to go and that's hitting it high
 
these tourney match plays "jumped at me" on Monday (bet.return)

Jorge Campillo +120 over Gary Woodland (50/110) @ Westgate

Campillo: T-32nd Scottish Open [-8] 3rd Irish Open [-13] T-8th Open de FraNnce [-4] T-33rd BWM International [-1] T-60th Italian Open CUT BMW PGA last five. T-3rd China Open [-16] T-5th Open de Espana [-15] T-4th Oman Open [-11] 2nd Maybank [-19] previous 4 of his 6 tourneys to those. just two CUTS this season @ BMW PGA and DDC
Woodland: T-53rd National [even] T-36th US Open [+13] T-23rd Memorial [-9] last three. CUT his previous 4 tourneys to those and "bottom feeder' or CUT the three before those four. did WIN the Phoenix open early season

Ryan Fox -110 over Danny Willett (55/105)

Fox: T-6th Scottish Open [-14] 2nd Irish Open [-14] playoff T-44th Open de France [+4] T-41st US Open [+14] T-8th Italian Open [-16]
Willett: T-19th Scottish Open [-11] T-6th Irish Open [-9] CUT Open de France CUT US Open T-8th Italian Open [-16]

Ian Poulter even over Phil Mickelson (50/100)

"The Poulter-geist": T-30th Scottish Open [-9] T-21st Open de France [-1] T-25th US Open [+12] T-8th Italian Open [-16] T-20th BMW PGA [-7] T-11th Players [-11]
"The Mick": CUT Scottish Open T-65th Greenbrier [-1] T-48th US Open [+16] T-12th FedEx St Jude [-6] T-13th Memorial [-10] CUT Players

Jon Rahm is my #1 "to win" this week @ 25-1. "Rahmbo" is the DOG in all these two man match plays vs
+140 vs Dustin Johnson
+125 vs Justin Rose
+115 vs Rory McIlroy
+110 vs Rickie Fowler

I will wait to see WHAT Westgate puts up for his "quad" four man match before betting anything :shake:
 
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What's the over/under Thursday morning before someone(viewers) on social media complains about the course not looking 'pretty'?
 
I'm guessing about 13 minutes. People were distraught about the look of the US Open this year.
 
B.A.R. said:
^^^ Spot on man. It will be about controlling where the ball goes. Some of the bombers could be off target and leave it in areas not all that great. This should be fascinating.
Click to expand...

I don't think this course will suit the guys who pull driver 10+ times a round. They may be able to fly the bunkers, but that rough will be impossible to control shots out of. I think the guys at the top of the leaderboard will be the ones who can think their way around the course the best. Guys with experience on links courses and who have more "cerebral" games. Could be a good week to back Spieth, since his form has been relatively poor coming in, doubt many are lining up to bet on him or pick him in DFS. Obviously the euro tour players have an advantage, plus guys like Fowler. I think it could be a good week for Tiger, though he is a notoriously bad putter on slow greens. Branden Grace, Tyrell Hatton, Poulter, Russell Knox, and a few others have my attention. The whole world seems to like Tommy Fleetwood, similar to last year. Though it won't be quite as pressure filled for him since last year was in his home town.

Considering Fowler, Noren, and maybe Paul Casey in my one and done.

Some injury concerns: Bryson as mentioned above. Also Stenson and Oosthuizen WD last week. Could be lingering, or they could have just wanted to make sure they play this week. Both have obviously had success in this tournament
 
Any missed cut props you like? I want to play Bubba but not that impressed with the number.
 
WOW!!! Euro Tour web site pick these three for their fantasy plays @ Carnoustie. write ups @ >>> http://www.europeantour.com/myeuropeantour/fantasy-golf/fantasy-three-watch-carnoustie/

Favourite: Alex Noren
Form horse: Russell Knox
Wildcard: Ryan Fox

Group "quad" bets are up @ Westgate. "of interest" for me is Group D with Tyrrell Hatton +300 over Day, Casey & Reed, "F Troop" with Russell Knox +275 over Zack Johnson, Kuchar and Watson and Group G with Thorbjorn Olesen +280 over Pieters, Westwood and Carbera-Bello. Jon Rahm the favorite in Group B +220 over Fleetwood, Garcia and "The Mole" so I will just do some two man match plays with him. DID bop "Rahmbo's" finish top 10? +225 and finish top 20? -110

bopped just one "to make the CUT?" so far Phil Mickelson NO +220 @ William-Hill :shake:
 
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some probably "useless bullshit" information about Carnoustie

three of the seven Open Championships held at Carnoustie have been decided by a play-off including the last three played here with 2007 the most recent Padraig Harrington over Sergio Garcia (playoff? YES is +300 @ Westgate)

Tommy Fleetwood holds the single round course record of [-9] 63 during the 2017 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

the lowest winning score is [-9] 279 by Tom Watson in 1975 the highest winning score is [+8] 296 by Tommy Armour in 1931. most recent "modern" high is [+6] 290 by Paul Lawrie in 1999. Padraig Harrington and Sergio Garcia shot [-7] 277 the last Open played at Carnoustie

the last three Alfred Dunhill Links Championship winners are Tyrrell Hatton 2016 [-23] & 2017 [-24] and Thorbjørn Olesen 2015 [-18] Carnoustie is one of the three courses played in the tourney
 
Carnoustie weather forecast

Thursday partly cloudy wind 12 mph in morning increasing to 15 mph afternoon gusts to 20 MPH
Friday off and on rain in the morning wind 12 mph gusts to 20 mph partly cloudy afternoon
Saturday mostly cloudy with an occasional rain shower wind 10 mph gusts to 17 mph
Sunday mostly cloudy with an occasional rain shower wind 15 mph gusts to 25 mph
 
I'm done with Rahm until he starts showing more maturity. I was really disappointed with him in the US Open. The more I try to figure out this British Open the more difficult it becomes....
 
reading timh two articles makes me want to PRESS Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton. in "sleeper" picks I agree with Eddie Pepperell @ 200-1 (2nd last week @ Gullane. WON in Qatar), Jorge Campillo @ 250-1 (solo 3rd in Ireland. he has been "wicked close" to winning all season), Alex Bjork @ 300-1 (T-19th, T-14th and T-8th his last three. China Open winner) and Matt Wallace @ 300-1 (CUT his last two BUT BMW International and Indian Open winner this season). do NOT forget last weeks winner Brandon Stone @ 200-1. anyone who shoots a final [-10] @ Gullane last week is worth a $5 "sprinkle". also Ryan Fox @ 100-1 (down from 150-1 open) on his recent links performance (T-6th Scotland & 2nd Ireland in a playoff) worth a $10 shot
 
Timh said:
LeRink - I was leaning towards Hatton vs. Casey in the matchups.
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I took a flyer on a Tyrrell Hatton +300 (50/200) "group" bet over Jason Day, Paul Casey & Patrick Reed at Westgate :pray:

Oh the rotoworld article also mentions my pet ChiCom Haotong Li as a "sleeper". he is 200-1 @ William-Hill. was solo 3rd last year @ Royal Birkdale with a final round [-7] for tourney [-6] and held off Rory McIlroy for the early season in Dubai Desert Classic WIN [-23] also got T-23rd @ Gullane last week [-10] what the hell, $5 bucks gets you back a dime :)
 
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molinari -145 vs Day: too good of form to pass up on with a guy who I think will struggle with the wind and slow greens...

Fading Bryson with Scot and Sullivan: even if the shoulder isn't bothering him, I can't imagine he was able to prepare as he would have wanted

Tailed a few plays well. Best of luck and enjoy the tournament
 
LeRinkRat said:
I took a flyer on a Tyrrell Hatton +300 (50/200) "group" bet over Jason Day, Paul Casey & Patrick Reed at Westgate :pray:

Oh the rotoworld article also mentions my pet ChiCom Haotong Li as a "sleeper". he is 200-1 @ William-Hill. was solo 3rd last year @ Royal Birkdale with a final round [-7] for tourney [-6] and held off Rory McIlroy for the early season in Dubai Desert Classic WIN [-23] also got T-23rd @ Gullane last week [-10] what the hell, $5 bucks gets you back a dime:)
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I like the play BOL.
 
probably more "useless bullshit" BUT here is the notable CUT list from last year @ Royal Birkdale

Ryan Fox [+6]
Pagraig Harrington [+6]
Si Woo Kim [+6]
Anirban Lahiri [+6]
Alex Levy [+6]
Julian Suri [+6]
Russell Knox [+7]
Francesco Molinari [+7]
Justin Thomas [+7]
Fabrizio Zanotti [+7]
Beyeong-Hun An [+7]
Alex Bjork [+8]
Dylan Frittelli [+8]
Patrick Reed [+8]
Emiliano Grillo [+9]
Bill Haas [+9]
Charles Howell III [+9]
Pat Perez [+9]
Cameron Smith [+9]
Shane Lowry [+10]
Phil Mickelson [+10]
Tyrrell Hatton [+11]
Jhonatthan Vegas [+11]
Louis Oosthuizen [+12]
Hideto Tanihara [+12]
Bryson DeChanbeau [+13]
Adam Hadwin [+13]
Brendan Steele [+13]

Tyrrell Hatton, Ryan Fox and "The Mole" ??? YIKES!!! will take a re-run this year with "The Mick"
 
Here are the odds for all the guys at -5 right now...

Woods +1650
Fleetwood +2000
Simpson +5000
Kuchar +4000
Zach +3300
Rory +1425
Noren +2800



Also, 2 shots ahead at -7

Chappell is +2000
 
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