Thanksgiving Week Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
After a terrible week in many way,(5-10), the season long total now falls to 85-75 (.53125), This is actually barely above break even. So in just a few short weeks, we've gone from trying to get to 60% to just trying to have a positive year. Not gonna quite my day job,, rest assured. I decided to sit out the Egg Bowl, so I'm just now sitting down to write these up. Seems like it was a pretty good decision after watching that first half. The chances of me making more sound decisions such as that are very unlikely, as you are about to read.

Boise State -2.5 LOSS
Kansas State +3 LOSS
Iowa pk WIN
NC State -6.5 LOSS
Ohio State -7 LOSS
Boston College +6 LOSS
Miami(FL) -21 WIN
Penn State -3 LOSS
Oregon State +7 LOSS
Northwestern +6.5 LOSS
Western Kentucky +2 WIN
Virginia Tech +7 WIN
Tulsa +6.5 WIN
Wisconsin -7 LOSS
LSU +7 WIN
Pitt -12.5 WIN
Oklahoma State -4 PUSH
Clemson -11.5 WIN
Notre Dame -20.5 WIN
Cal +6.5 LOSS
BYU -7 LOSS

9-11-1

1. Boise State -2.5 @San Diego State: The @ symbol in this one doesn't necessarily denote a game in front of a hostile crowd, but it does mean that it's a game away from home for Boise, and that is usually a good thing. 3 of Boise's 4 losses this year have come on the blue turf, and the only road loss was the opener at UCF, and Boise is a night and day difference from the team that lined up back on Labor Day weekend. They've hit their stride in recent weeks, especially defensively, and QB Hank Bachmeier has been solid all year. SDSU has amassed an impressive record, and I usually am sympathetic to the Aztecs as they've cashed a bunch of tickets for me over the years. This year, it's the same story with them that it always is: Suffocating defense and a solid running game. It's translated to 10-1(!!) record, but doesn't garner much admiration from the pundits who always point to their anemic offense and usually ignore the defensive chops. IN this case I'm going to fall in,ine, because SDSU is catching Boise at the same time that they are overdue for a loss, and at a time where their defense is losing their grip a bit. Most of the damage they've done has been against the weaker squads in the Mountain West, and they've given up more than 300 yards passing in 3 of their last 4 games, and that includes last week against UNLV, a team that even the UNLV OC's mom wouldn't call an offensive juggernaut. Boise is probably the best offense that the Aztecs have faced, and their own offense doesn't appear to match up well against Boise, much like the rest of the country's defenses. Boise is on a roll and in their element on the road. I think they'll keep the momentum going here. If the Aztecs pull this off and finish the season at 11-1,(which is what will probably have to happen for them to cover this), I'll tip my proverbial cap.
 
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2. Kansas State +3 @ Texas: K State burned me last week, but in this case, as a road dog especially, this is almost a must play on principle. Texas is on a SIX game losing streak, bringing their record to 4-7, and somehow, despite not having Bijan Robinson or WR Joshua Moore, and with Texas having no clue who will play QB for them this week, they are favored over a 7-4 Kansas State team. K State is good ATS in just about every role, be it on the road, as a dog, in conference, you name it, they usually cover in that role. QB Skylar Thompson is very questionable for this game, but HC Chris Kleimann mentioned earlier this week that it was still possible for him to play, and even if he doesn't backup WIll Howard is at least serviceable and took the snaps in arguably K State's best performance of the year this season against Nevada. K State should be able to run all over Texas, and should be able to convert 3rd downs, against the Longhorns 104th ranked 3rd down defense. My guess is that teams on a 6 game losing streak into their finale usually aren't favored, especially against a solid team like K State. . There's just no way I can pass up taking points with a 7-4 team against a 4-7 team that, oh by the way, has an edge on paper in the vast majority of the unit matchups.
 
3. Iowa -105 ML @Nebraska: You have to take your hat off to Nebraska. There are not many teams that can walk into Camp Randall Stadium and put up 452 yards of offense including 351 yards passing. They've had a lot of impressive performances like that this year, but guess what? They've still lost 5 in a row and 7 out of 8. Sometimes you have to avoid making things too complicated. This week you couldn't conjure up two teams who are more of a polar opposite of each other that these two. Nebraska routinely either outplays their opponent or plays them to a standstill yet still looks' up at the scoreboard and sees themselves on the wrong side almost exclusively. Iowa routinely does what they did last week: Get outgained and then benefit from favorable referee calls or lack thereof. In addition to the overall lot in life of the teams involved, Nebraska will have to start backup QB Logan Smothers against the best ball hawking defense in the country in Iowa, and Hawkeyes are certainly capable of making Smothers beat them. They themselves are starting their own backup, Alex Padilla( I assume), but he's an improvement over Spencer Petras, and the Hawkeye staff has finally unshackled a couple of younger players who have started to make some plays. My assumption is that Nebraska will outgain Iowa and hold them to under 300 total yards, and somehow, through pixie dust or favorable referee calls or both, Iowa will win the game. One team finds a way to win, the other finds a way to lose.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Iowa -105 ML @Nebraska: You have to take your hat off to Nebraska. There are not many teams that can walk into Camp Randall Stadium and put up 452 yards of offense including 351 yards passing. They've had a lot of impressive performances like that this year, but guess what? They've still lost 5 in a row and 7 out of 8. Sometimes you have to avoid making things too complicated. This week you couldn't conjure up two teams who are more of a polar opposite of each other that these two. Nebraska routinely either outplays their opponent or plays them to a standstill yet still looks' up at the scoreboard and sees themselves on the wrong side almost exclusively. Iowa routinely does what they did last week: Get outgained and then benefit from favorable referee calls or lack thereof. In addition to the overall lot in life of the teams involved, Nebraska will have to start backup QB Logan Smothers against the best ball hawking defense in the country in Iowa, and Hawkeyes are certainly capable of making Smothers beat them. They themselves are starting their own backup, Alex Padilla( I assume), but he's an improvement over Spencer Petras, and the Hawkeye staff has finally unshackled a couple of younger players who have started to make some plays. My assumption is that Nebraska will outgain Iowa and hold them to under 300 total yards, and somehow, through pixie dust or favorable referee calls or both, Iowa will win the game. One team finds a way to win, the other finds a way to lose.
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i like this also, one team forces teams to make mistakes and the other is always making them,, kinda rather it was martinez going for corn but a kid making his 1st start should be a good candidate to make a mistake or 3 vs this d.
 
4. @NC State -6.5 v North Carolina: I probably need to get my head examined because the only times UNC's sometimes potent offense peaks it's head out from their gopher hole are when I'm fading them. In this case, however, there's too much pointing to a bad effort from them. Going back to last year, UNC was a Jekyll and Hyde team depending on whether they were at home or not. The offense was a behemoth at home but they turned into a pumpkin on the road, blowing covers regularly and losing outright to Virginia and FSU as double digit favorites. This year they've tailed off at home, but on the road the issues have been the same. They haven't come within a TD in any of the road games, and I think you can make a case that of all the road teams they'll face, NC State might be the worst matchup for them, as thy are definitely the best defense the Tar Hells have matched up with. At times this year, it seems as though Sam Howell designed runs have been the bread and butter of the offense, and that is pretty unlikely to work against NC State, especially since Howell appears to be banged up. NC State also excels at the things UNC usually has success with when they are clicking, especially on 3rd down. On the flip side, if NC State plays even an average game offensively, they are likely to have great success against this UNC defense that hasn't done much of anything well. NC State still has a chance to win their division and play for the ACC title, and they've taken it on the chin from the Tar Hells the past couple of years, so there will be motivation here.

***Found a 5.5 on this as well so I added a unit at that number.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
4. @NC State -6.5 v North Carolina: I probably need to get my head examined because the only times UNC's sometimes potent offense peaks it's head out from their gopher hole are when I'm fading them. In this case, however, there's too much pointing to a bad effort from them. Going back to last year, UNC was a Jekyll and Hyde team depending on whether they were at home or not. The offense was a behemoth at home but they turned into a pumpkin on the road, blowing covers regularly and losing outright to Virginia and FSU as double digit favorites. This year they've tailed off at home, but on the road the issues have been the same. They haven't come within a TD in any of the road games, and I think you can make a case that of all the road teams they'll face, NC State might be the worst matchup for them, as thy are definitely the best defense the Tar Hells have matched up with. At times this year, it seems as though Sam Howell designed runs have been the bread and butter of the offense, and that is pretty unlikely to work against NC State, especially since Howell appears to be banged up. NC State also excels at the things UNC usually has success with when they are clicking, especially on 3rd down. On the flip side, if NC State plays even an average game offensively, they are likely to have great success against this UNC defense that hasn't done much of anything well. NC State still has a chance to win their division and play for the ACC title, and they've taken it on the chin from the Tar Hells the past couple of years, so there will be motivation here.
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i leaned ncst but i hate their play calling, i cant cap their games for shit cause they just dont run a offense that makes sense to me given the 2 really good backs they have and a qb i think is suspect at best. that said i think their defense plays consistently better than heels plus not like Mac Brown and his staff are going around out coaching teams!! lol
 
Should have known that a simple switch back to Jordon Brookshire would magically transform SDSU's offense to a 13 yards per play juggernaut against the Boise defense.

Also, an Iowa fan friend of mine is texting me incredulously, completely baffled by this concept of every call and break not going Iowa's way. I had to tell him, "Sorry man...unfortunately, I had a hand in that."
 
3rd down Conversions entering today:

Kansas State Offense (26th), Texas Defense (105th)

K State today 1-9

4th down Conversions:

Kansas State Offense (3rd) Texas Defense (104th)

K State today: 0-2 (both 4th and inches).
 
Nice to see Kansas State and Boise are going to combine for a grand total of Zero 2nd half points today.

I guess there's no in between with Boise: It's either complete domination in the second half or they fold like a tent.
 
Boise had this game early and was driving for another score. Refs missed some blatant offsides on a few occasions kept Aztecs around. 24 unanswered was pathetic. 3 man lines destroyed the Boise OL. Pathetic!
 
5. Ohio State -7 @ Michigan: Jim Harbaugh is going to have to prove it to me. It's not even mentioning the specifics about how Ohio State has dominated this series lately, we just need to know that Michigan has no competed with the Buckeyes in the last decade plus. It's obvious that Ohio State's offense is hitting on al cylinders, and they will be as healthy as they can be coming into this game. Michigan has looked borderline elite on defense this year, but can they shut down Ohio State? If you're looking for a comp of anyone even in the same area code offensively as Ohio State, especially in the passing game, you won't find it on Michigan's schedule. In terms of yards per attempt, they've faced the 128th, 124th, 119th, 104th, 89th and 80th pass offenses in the country, and if you count Maryland's stats since their top 3 receivers have been out, they'd be in the same general vicinity. The two passing offenses that you could classify as above average, Nebraska and Michigan State, put up 37 and 29 points respectively, and the Huskers averaged more than 10 yards per attempt. Offensively, Michigan has been pretty good, but at times they are not an explosive offense, and if Ohio State gets going offensively, I don't see them as able to trade scores. If the game is high scoring like the recent games in this series have been, 7 points is not as valuable. Keep in mind that although the Buckeyes failed to cover their last time out on the road, Ryan Day is still 9-2 on the road ATS in conference road games, nd his has yet to lose a conference game since he took over the reigns. I've also heard that Day has been extremely annoyed with Harbaugh on the recruiting trail, so motivation from his perspective won't be a problem. Until proven otherwise, there is still a ton of evidence that leads to a suggestion that Ohio State keeps their domination going here.
 
6. @Boston College +6(-115) v Wake Forest: Back to the well with the Eagles here at home, as I don't expect another bad start like they struggled through last week against Florida State. I've had a rough time going against Wake, but 6 is too much to cover in my opinion for a team with the 109th ranked rush defense against a team that can run it and their pass defense isn't much better. Phil Jurkovec is averaging more than 10 yards per attempt, so I think the BC offense will have an advantage in that matchup. Wake will score, but I think BC at home will keep this one close.
 
7. Miami(FL) -21(-115) @Duke: If there's anybody who can make this Duke team look decent, it might be Manny Diaz, but Duke has been SO bad, I don't think even that is possible. In their last 4 games, Duke has given up 687, 573, 636 and 677 yards, good for 8.87 yards per play over that period. For historical significance for how bad that is, the worst defense of the last decade plus is the 2018 UCONN defense. UCONN gave up 8.83 yards per play. No other team since 2009 has given up even 8 yards per play, and in most years there's only a handful that give up more than 7. Duke, in the past 4 weeks has been WORSE than what is, by far, the worst defense (probably) in college football history. Since Tyler Van Dyke took over QB duties for the Hurricanes 6 weeks ago, they've averaged 35 points, so they are definitely able to score about as much as they want in this one, and it would behoove Manny Diaz to look as good in this game as he possibly can to stay ahead of the posse. As long as they can keep a pretty much dead in the water Duke team from putting up 35-40 points, they should be ok, and even if they don't they still might score enough to cover 21.
 
8. Penn State -3 @MIchigan State: Even if Michigan State was healthy, I would be leaning toward Penn State in this one. First of all, Michigan State is 3-11-1 since 2018 as a home favorite, which is irrelevant now as this line has flipped well into PSU territory. Things don't get much better when MSU is dogged, as their overall record ATS at home is 6-16-1 in that same period. We all saw how bad MSU has looked against the pass, and although Penn State is definitely nowhere near as good as Ohio State or even Purdue at throwing the ball, when Sean Clifford is healthy, he can definitely lead a competent passing attack with Jahaan Dotson and Parker Washington catching the ball. Also, MSU will be without both Jalen Nailor and Jarren Reed, the two receivers that make them explosive on offense. Without them, MSU becomes very one dimensional, and Kenneth Walker is also banged up. I wouldn't be surprised if MSU is without him for the most part as well. Although this seems like a major irrational line swing, and it's probably still moving as I write this, I think MSU is going to have a hard time being competitive. It's basically Peyton Thorne against the world, without much help from the still reeling defense.
 
9. Oregon State +7 @Oregon: It's always dangerous to go against a team as good as Oregon the week immediately following what might be their most disappointing effort in a decade, but Oregon State in a role like this is an auto play for me. Since Jonathan Smith has been there in Corvalis, the Beavers are 12-4 ATS as a road dog, and they've gone 9-1 in their last 10 in that role. When you match up these two teams by unit on paper, it's about as close as you can get. I don't think either team will have any problem getting motivated, and I give the slight edge in coaching to Smith and the Beavers, as Cristobal tends to botch tough decisions...well he botches easy decisions too, so maybe it's a healthy edge. Add that to the comfortable role the Beavers will be in and 7 points looks like a no brainer to me.
 
10. Northwestern +6.5 @Illinois: Northwestern has dominated this series, and although Bielema is by far the toughest adversary for Fitzy since he came got into a groove with the Wildcats, this is still going to be a tough cover for an Illini team that has been trying to get out of Fitzy's voodoo hex just to win outright. The Cats have won 11 of the last 12 in this series and in a lot of those cases, they were able to have success in areas that they didn't for that entire year. For example, a couple years ago, Northwestern couldn't run the ball to save their lives and Illinois had a decent run defense. What happened? Fitzy started 3rd stringer Andrew Marty who just used his girth to run roughshod over the Illini defense, leading the Cats to 378 rushing yards and a 29-10 win as 7 point dogs. This year, Illinois runs the ball well and plays good defense and Northwestern ranks 120th against the run and 111th in yards per play. So what will happen? Northwestern allows 80 yards on 35 carries and the Cats uncork a season high in yards. As an Illinois alum, I'll be ecstatic with a straight up win, let alone a win by more than a TD. The Illini have been pretty good on the road this year, but at home, other than the opening win over Nebraska, they've left a lot to be desired. They certainly aren't a good bet to cover a decent number like this.
 
11. Western Kentucky +2 @Marshall: Since dropping their conference opener in the final minutes to unbeaten UTSA, WKU has run off 6 in a row, with only one game(a 15 point win over FIU) being decided by fewer than 15 points. I think everyone has heard about the Hilltopper offense, led by QB Bailey Zappe who came along with his OC at previous stop Houston Baptist to light C-USA teams on fire, and that's pretty much what he's done, albeit against some of the weaker squads in C-USA. Now the Toppers finish off the season with a trip to Marshall with a berth in the C-USA title game in the balance. Since 2019, Marshall is 4-13 as a home favorite, and they have limped to the finish line in recent years, having failed to cover at least their last 6 season finales(that's as far back as I felt like looking). The combination of WKU's explosive offense and Marshall's total failure to deliver in spots like this has my on the Hilltoppers here.
 
12. Virginia Tech +7 @Virginia: I probably need to have my head examined here, but I'm back on the Hokies, despite their "team without a coach" status. The reason for this is my skepticism that Virginia can cover a TD against their rival with a defense as bad as theirs. If you take away their game with non-competitive Duke, the Cavs have given up an average of 535 yards per game in their last 8. Virginia Tech should be able to run it at will on the Cavs, and the fact that they do a pretty good job on 3rd down(25th) and against the pass makes it a possibility that they might be able to string some stops together. Also remember the dominance that the Hokies have had in this series, winning all but 2 of the matchups since 1998!. Also, Virginia is impossibly reliant on QB Brennan Armstrong. If he gets injured(and he's not close to 100%), Virginia's chances go out the window.
 
13. Tulsa +6.5 @SMU: It's hard to tell what the effect of Sonny Dykes jumping ship to grab the TCU will do to SMU's motivation, but I liked Tulsa in this game before Dykes left, and I like it now, since the news had no effect on the spread. Tulsa is another team that is extremely resourceful in the road underdog role, as they are 9-1 in the role since 2019. Both teams have a slight edge with their offenses, but SMU's pass defense has been very bad, having given up 10 yards per attempt or close to it in the majority of their games this year. Tulsa's pass offense is ranked 41st, so they are capable of putting up points, and they have also matched up with and competed well against the likes of Cincinnati, Ohio State and Oklahoma State, so they certainly won't be intimidated by SMU. With their track record from this year and their precision in the road dog role, I like Tulsa's chances of doing what they usually do against a team that might be searching a bit after the news that their coach is hitting the road.
 
14. Wisconsin -7 @Minnesota: The road team has gone 6-0-1 in the last 7 in this series, and Wisconsin is a great road favorite, having gone 12-4 in the last 16 in that role. Also, Wisconsin's defense is coming off an outlier performance last week against Nebraska, where they gave up 452 yards, the worst defensive performance of the year for the Badgers by far(almost 100 yards!). In this game they can punch their ticket to the Big Ten title game, so I'm sure Wisconsin's defensive staff gave it to the Badgers for that performance and they'll be looking to make amends. Luckily the offense they'll be facing is not dynamic, with QB Tanner Morgan looking extremely remedial throwing the ball in recent weeks. Wisconsin surely won't be worried about a Gopher rushing attack that couldn't crack 3 yards a rush in their last home game against Illinois. The Gophers have been good defensively and especially against the run, but the Badgers have a way of making even good run defenses look pedestrian. I just don't see Morgan being able to move the ball through the air in this one, and nobody runs it on the Badgers. I think the Badgers will take care of this one.
 
15. @LSU +7 v Texas A&M: A&M has been a great road favorite in recent years, but this pass offense under Zach Calzada has been too erratic to cover a sizable spread like this against a team that is likely to give a great effort in Orgeron's last game. LSU started terribly this year on defense, a continuation of their terrible defense in 2020, Don't look now, but in their last 3 conference games against teams that rank among the best in the country, they've given up 31, 20 and 16 points to Ole Miss, Bama and Arkansas. Now A&M comes in, easily the weakest offense of any of those. LSU is no juggernaut offensively, but they've managed to put up some decent offensive performances, in recent weeks, certainly good enough to compete with A&M, especially if they are pumped to play in Orgeron's last game at night, a phenomenon that hasn't been as common for the Tigers in the past 2 years.
 
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16. Pitt -12.5 @ Syracuse: This game is just a terrible matchup for Syracuse, as Pitt pretty much cancels out all the things they are good at and excels at what the aren't good at. Syracuse does a couple things well. First the run the ball well, both with QB Garrett Schrader and especially with RB Sean Tucker. They also play pretty good defense, especially stopping the run. Their goal is to hang around and hopefully pull out a close one, and for a long portion of the season, it worked well as they started the season 6-1 ATS. Since then however, teams have figured them out, especially in the past two weeks where Louisville and NCState both shut down their run game and ran away with things. Pitt's strength on defense is stopping the run. They aren't good against the pass, but that is not Syracuse's game enough to exploit it all day long. Defensively, Syracuse is susceptible against the pass(81st)and as we know, that's not a good thing to be susceptible against when you're playing Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison. Pitt also thrives on the road, going 12-3 as a road favorite under Narduzzi since he took the helm in 2015. Pitt has already clinched whatever ACC division it is that they play in, but these teams are always looking for props and cred, and they probably think Kenny Pickett still has a faint shot at the Heisman. I have no problem laying the 12.5 with them in this role.
 
17. @Oklahoma State -4(-115) v Oklahoma: When this line came out and then started moving away even further from Oklahoma, I had every intention of taking the opinion(much like I did with Harbaugh and Michigan) that Mike Gundy was going to have to prove it to me after all the futility the Cowboys have had in this series, seemingly falling apart or shitting the bed at every opportunity. Indeed, the history in this series is not kind to OSU, as they have lost 16 out of the 18 last 18 in this series, virtually every year since Bob Stoops turned the Sooners around back around the turn of the century. But after looking at this game closely, I just can't make a logical case as to how Oklahoma is going to be able to move the ball on this outstanding OSU defense, other than some sort of cosmic occurrence. The narrative was that Oklahoma's offense was ignited by Caleb Williams, and it was, but all his success came against the absolute dregs of power 5 conference defenses, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech and Kanas(and Kansas played their best defensive game of the year against them). Since then, when facing actual competent defenses in Baylor and Iowa State they've managed just 260 and 305 yards respectively, and in the Iowa State game, 77 of them came on a busted QB run that wasn't even a designed play. An outrageously lucky bounce at the end of the first half and the complete ineptitude of Brock Purdy were the only things keeping them from losing at home to a mediocre Iowa State team. No this offense, which has proven to be no match for good defenses has to play what is undoubtedly the best defense this side of Georgia. You can't run on the Cowboys, and when the Sooners want to pass, they'll be facing the number 1 pass rush in the country with their OL, which ranks only 91st in sacks allowed. Offensively, Oklahoma State hasn't been explosive, but QBs such as Skylar Thompson, Charles Thompson's kid at Texas and Max Duggan at TCU have all thrown for 300 yards. I trust Gundy to put together a good enough plan to put some points on the board, and it should be enough because it looks like the OU offense is going to have a long night unless they've had some sort of Eureka moment this week in practice.
 
18. Clemson -11.5 @South Carolina: I'm guessing South Carolina thinks this is as good a chance as they've had to knock off Clemson in a long time, but I'm actually looking at this one as a chance to only have to lay 11.5 in a Clemson/South Carolina game. Even though the Tigers have found their groove a bit on offense, they still can't really throw the ball with much precision, but now that Will Shipley is healthy and Kobe Pace has emerged in the backfield, their running game is very formidable. That' bad news for South Carolina, who struggles to stop the run and who can't move the ball on a good defense to save their lives. Even last week when they had their nice comeback against Auburn, their QB Jason Brown(who had a nice statistical game) benefitted from 115 of his 157 passing yards coming after the catch, meaning that the vast majority of his completions were at or behind the line of scrimmage. That "offense in a phone booth" approach isn't going to work against Clemson. It's also a rivalry game, so you can bet Clemson would like to put a nice bow on what has been a disappointing regular season for them with yet another beat down of their in state rival.
 
19. Notre Dame -20.5 or whatever it is @Stanford: Stanford is pretty much an auto fade now, and this looks to be another derelict in a line of teams who in previous years fit the bill of a useful team to schedule for the Irish, but fell apart this year. The Cardinal join USC, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Virginia with no Brennan Armstrong as the teams that basically did nothing more than provide uniforms to fill space on the field for ND. Stanford can't stop a soul on defense, and even with tanner McKee back, they aren't much better on offense. If you don't fade Stanford right now you're missing an opportunity until they can prove any modicum of competence. It's one of the few things that's worked for me in recent weeks, so I'm not gonna stop now.
 
Thanks for the input, Brass.

You're due for a big day, methinks it's today...

:cheers3:
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Iowa -105 ML @Nebraska: You have to take your hat off to Nebraska. There are not many teams that can walk into Camp Randall Stadium and put up 452 yards of offense including 351 yards passing. They've had a lot of impressive performances like that this year, but guess what? They've still lost 5 in a row and 7 out of 8. Sometimes you have to avoid making things too complicated. This week you couldn't conjure up two teams who are more of a polar opposite of each other that these two. Nebraska routinely either outplays their opponent or plays them to a standstill yet still looks' up at the scoreboard and sees themselves on the wrong side almost exclusively. Iowa routinely does what they did last week: Get outgained and then benefit from favorable referee calls or lack thereof. In addition to the overall lot in life of the teams involved, Nebraska will have to start backup QB Logan Smothers against the best ball hawking defense in the country in Iowa, and Hawkeyes are certainly capable of making Smothers beat them. They themselves are starting their own backup, Alex Padilla( I assume), but he's an improvement over Spencer Petras, and the Hawkeye staff has finally unshackled a couple of younger players who have started to make some plays. My assumption is that Nebraska will outgain Iowa and hold them to under 300 total yards, and somehow, through pixie dust or favorable referee calls or both, Iowa will win the game. One team finds a way to win, the other finds a way to lose.
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Nailed it - well done!
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. @Boston College +6(-115) v Wake Forest: Back to the well with the Eagles here at home, as I don't expect another bad start like they struggled through last week against Florida State. I've had a rough time going against Wake, but 6 is too much to cover in my opinion for a team with the 109th ranked rush defense against a team that can run it and their pass defense isn't much better. Phil Jurkovec is averaging more than 10 yards per attempt, so I think the BC offense will have an advantage in that matchup. Wake will score, but I think BC at home will keep this one close.
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Just heard on gameday that BC will be w/o some players due to the "flu".
 
Brass Happy TG belatedly, and hope you have a great day today. Thanks for all the good thoughts on the games.
 
Br@ssknux said:
11. Western Kentucky +2 @Marshall: Since dropping their conference opener in the final minutes to unbeaten UTSA, WKU has run off 6 in a row, with only one game(a 15 point win over FIU) being decided by fewer than 15 points. I think everyone has heard about the Hilltopper offense, led by QB Bailey Zappe who came along with his OC at previous stop Houston Baptist to light C-USA teams on fire, and that's pretty much what he's done, albeit against some of the weaker squads in C-USA. Now the Toppers finish off the season with a trip to Marshall with a berth in the C-USA title game in the balance. Since 2019, Marshall is 4-13 as a home favorite, and they have limped to the finish line in recent years, having failed to cover at least their last 6 season finales(that's as far back as I felt like looking). The combination of WKU's explosive offense and Marshall's total failure to deliver in spots like this has my on the Hilltoppers here.
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Love this one. Gl today
 
Br@ssknux said:
16. Pitt -12.5 @ Syracuse: This game is just a terrible matchup for Syracuse, as Pitt pretty much cancels out all the things they are good at and excels at what the aren't good at. Syracuse does a couple things well. First the run the ball well, both with QB Garrett Schrader and especially with RB Sean Tucker. They also play pretty good defense, especially stopping the run. Their goal is to hang around and hopefully pull out a close one, and for a long portion of the season, it worked well as they started the season 6-1 ATS. Since then however, teams have figured them out, especially in the past two weeks where Louisville and NCState both shut down their run game and ran away with things. Pitt's strength on defense is stopping the run. They aren't good against the pass, but that is not Syracuse's game enough to exploit it all day long. Defensively, Syracuse is susceptible against the pass(81st)and as we know, that's not a good thing to be susceptible against when you're playing Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison. Pitt also thrives on the road, going 12-3 as a road favorite under Narduzzi since he took the helm in 2015. Pitt has already clinched whatever ACC division it is that they play in, but these teams are always looking for props and cred, and they probably think Kenny Pickett still has a faint shot at the Heisman. I have no problem laying the 12.5 with them in this role.
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I’ve read getting to 10 wins is also a big deal for pitt. I played the 1st half -7, couldn’t have said any better what a crazy bad matchup this is for cuse, kinda just protecting against them building a big lead and cruising in 4th. I really don’t think cuse would be able to back door even if pitt does build lead amd let up, just don’t see cuse being able to score.
 
20. Cal +6.5 @UCLA: I've really been rooting for Cal in recent weeks due to fact that they were forced to play at least one game completely shorthanded and had to postpone another due to restrictions in Berkeley that don't exist anywhere else, and really don't have any effect on the safety of players or anyone else. They lost to Arizona earlier because practically every starter on the team was held out of the game for close contact purposes. Since then they've galvanized and played well, especially on the defensive side of the ball, although UCLA will be better than most of the offenses they've played. Offensively, they should be able to run the ball on UCLA, and I am a fan of Chase Garbers under center. His numbers never seem all that flashy, but he seems to look good on the eye test and ends up putting his team in good position. If you take out the Arizona debacle, Cal's running game is 8th in the country in yards per rush, so again, I like their chances to sustain drives in this one against UCLA's average (at best) defense. On paper, I have this one at about a standstill, but I think Cal will be playing with a chip on their shoulder due to what they've dealt with this year, and they remain a fantastic road dog under Wilcox, with a 9-1 mark in that role since 2018. Also, UCLA has not been a great home team this year other than their opening wins over LSU and an overmatched Hawaii team. They've gone 1-3 at home since then with losses to Fresno Arizona State and Oregon with their only win coming against Colorado. That performance at home is nothing new....they're only 4-8 as a home favorite since 2018. .
 
21. BYU -7 @USC: This is a straight fade of USC in the Coliseum, where the USC defense has just been shredded all year long. I could go through the gory details, but let's just say they haven't stopped anyone that didn't care to be stopped at any point this year. Now BYU comes in, and the curse for USC is that everyone gets excited to play the Trojans in that stadium. BYU will have plenty of fans there, and I can't imagine many USC fans being excited to check this one out. BYU is 7th in the country in total offense and is equally adept at running and throwing it. USC's numbers are ugly...they are going to give up points like it's going out of style, and although I do think USC can move the ball on BYU's defense, they won't be able to keep pace well enough to keep this under 7.
 
Finished up the year with another bad week, 9-11-1. Some bad plays, some bad breaks, but ultimately, bad. A LOT of teams followed the "they're due for a loss" model rather than "they're great in that role" the past few weeks. Thanks for all the great feedback/discussion, This is an understatement, but this is a great place to shoot the breeze about what we all love to do!
 
Thanks for the write-ups Brass, there's still a ton of games to go, and plenty of time to cash some winners.

:cheers3:
 
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