Tennis 2014

T

tazz

blankets refugee
hi guys, a little late coming to the party this year but here i am

last year i was 38-43, +8.1 units posted...french open forward i was very good

pre french open last year i was 15-26, -5.8...however, after that i was 8-6, +5.5 at the french, 6-6, +4 at wimbledon, 5-2, +7.1 at the us open, and 4-3, +1 at barclays

it is djokovic's year to win the french...he lost in 5 in the semis to rafa last year even though he was up a break in the 5th...rafa still has to get past ferrer tomorrow and then murray or monfils in the semis while nole just has gulbis to get through...also an extra day to rest

i took djokovic at +145 earlier in the tournament but since i didn't post it, i will post the odds you can get him at right now which is even money to -110


Djokovic to win French even 4 units to win 4

rafa will have a tough time with ferrer tomorrow and murray/monfils could be a good one too...enjoy the matches
 
gl scopey

yup, think joker rolls...gulbis can play..i was watching gulbis in person at us open when he beat a ton of guys, watched him on an outside court, then roll robredo in grandstand, then lost to moya. he lost focus for a few years but he is back. has had a great start to the year, has a great 1st serve, great dropshot...but djokovic is too good, he hit the bh up the line to raonic so well, this is his year...could be close for a set but djokovic in straights is my guess

murray played rafa tough in rome rolling through the 1st set..rafa has only lost 1 match in like the past 10 years at the french (to soderling) but murray can trouble him.. will take a stab

all 1 unit plays tomorrow

Djokovic 3 sets to 0 +110

Djokovic -6 games even

Murray +580

Murray +6.5 games +105

if i make some trades, i'll try to get them in this thread
 
gl man

holdin joker and halep futures myself

probably trading live to max value

think each dog can grab a set tomorrow but feel chalk wins out
 
If joker plays rafa in the final, won't he be at better odds than even to win that match?
 
joker wins 3 sets to 1..he was cruising 2 sets to 0 but had a let down in the 4th, gulbis started playing better...lost the set bet prop, pushed the game prop

streakin, it depends what happens in this second semi but djokovic will probably be favored for the final...even though rafa has won the french 8 of the last 9 years, djokovic has beaten him 4 times in a row since the us open, including on clay 3 weeks ago in rome

gl retburj...good call on gulbis getting a set..nice looking futures you have!
 
Streakin said:
If joker plays rafa in the final, won't he be at better odds than even to win that match?
Click to expand...

just slightly as right now Joker is on a 4 game win streak vs Nadal.
Here are the odds during the last 4 meets that Joker won

Rome 2014 Clay:
Nadal 1.72
Joker 2.13

Miami 2014 Hard:
Nadal 2.18
Joker 1.69

ATP Masters 2013 (Indoor):
Nadal 2.43
Joker 1.57

Beijing 2013 (Hard):
Nadal 2.04
Joker 1.76

So as you can see Joker right now should be the only player to be favoured against Nadal, if this happens he would be the first to be favoured ON CLAY vs Nadal in well...over 7 years?
You cannot deny that Joker has Nadal's number and really the books would only have Nadal as fav based on reputation on clay.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
just slightly as right now Joker is on a 4 game win streak vs Nadal.
Here are the odds during the last 4 meets that Joker won

Rome 2014 Clay:
Nadal 1.72
Joker 2.13

Miami 2014 Hard:
Nadal 2.18
Joker 1.69

ATP Masters 2013 (Indoor):
Nadal 2.43
Joker 1.57

Beijing 2013 (Hard):
Nadal 2.04
Joker 1.76

So as you can see Joker right now should be the only player to be favoured against Nadal, if this happens he would be the first to be favoured ON CLAY vs Nadal in well...over 7 years?
You cannot deny that Joker has Nadal's number and really the books would only have Nadal as fav based on reputation on clay.
Click to expand...

Thnx, Mike. Know very little about tennis. Just watch and bet the majors.
 
well at the start of this match at betfair joker was -110, but the books have adjusted after seeing nadal crush murray, nadal is now -120 or so for the final...murray had nothing in the tank, bad bet on my part there...should be a great final
 
With Nadals injury, he's not 100% this Finals. All bets should be to Novak.
smile4.png
 
Didnt look like he had any lingering issues today... Said in post match interview best tennis hes played this tournament which could be somethin to keep an eye on.. Joker raises nadal game like nobody else can, used to be federer not anymore..... I think all this under estimation on RAFA is a mistake think he takes care of business and u will see him at another level sunday
 
0 for the french...hopefully wimbledon is better

1st round


Brown +120 vs Baghdatis


Pospisil +120 vs Haase


1 unit each
 
0-6-1, -9 units to start the year, only way is up

mens 3rd round tomorrow


Dimitrov to win 3-0 (+185) and Dimitrov to win 3-1 (+265) .75 on each vs Dolgopolov


Stakhovsky -130 vs Chardy 1.3 to win 1


Cilic +180 vs Berdych 1 to win 1.8
 
think bouchard gets it done tomorrow...i am canadian so a little partial but kerber played long vs sharapova today, will be tough to come back


Bouchard -125

Bouchard -1.5 games -110

Bouchard 2 sets to 0 +190


1 unit each


think joker beats cilic, murray beats dimitrov (though could be interesting)....federer vs wawrinka could be good, wawa was serving rockets vs lopez, may make a play before the match


i think raonic beats kyrgios....though what a match for kygrios, huge upset of nadal...huge serve, goes big, 19 year old from australia..raonic beat him 1st round of french a few weeks back

HAPPY CANADA DAY
 
tazz said:
bouchard beat kerber 1 and 2 at the french a few weeks back
Click to expand...

Don't mean to "shit" on your stat, tazz, but just some context to it:

Bouchard's record on clay is 45-21 vs. 8-6 on grass; if you want to get picky, considering just major events the last 2 years: 28-10 vs. 6-3, so the latter # was still only 2-3 before this current event started, and I'm not sold on any of her wins being significant. Think both her & Halep have had doddles to get to the QF (her toughest opp, Cornet, was off beating Serena and playing her first 4th R match ever in a Slam after 33 failures to reach such a point. Some serious inertia for Cornet since no one but Lisicki had ever won their next match @Wimby upon beating Serena prior to a final, ever since the beast had become a Slam winner herself).

Kerber made a Wimby semi-final just 2 years ago, and has up until now shown her biggest weakness to be more mental than talent/ability (imo she would've slash should've beaten Radwanska in the '12 SF, playing some fantastic tennis early in both sets. But when crunchtime came late, she mentally bit the pillow each time). So I have to give major props to the German for winning her last 2 matches (Flipkens had her on the ropes up a set and with coming with a 2nd set comeback from 0-3 down, a position the German routinely previously wilted in in Slam matches), they show her mental weaknesses are seemingly being mastered. I'm not inclined to put myself in the way of such positive portents, thou I obv. understand Bouchard bets (since clearly she's a future Slam winner, I just question her first title being on grass). Since I have a Lisicki future, I'm indirectly invested in a Bouchard win here. I'd rather my German - should she get there herself - meet a Wimby novice semi-finalist rather than another German who's already been there before (and also sports a 5-0 HtH record against her, 2-0 on grass incl. a Wimby win). But I'm not counting on it.
 
Grats tazz. I was wrong about Kerber making any steady mental improvements. Those 4 bp failures in the 8th game of the 3rd set followed by her service failure in the next game just broke her for the match.
 
thanks guys

wasn't going to play the match but the line has crept up where i think there is value on bouchard

Bouchard +160 vs Halep 1 unit
 
won 5 in a row with cilic over berdych and then rolling with bouchard, with some plus money wagers in the mix...nice to see a canadian in a gs singles final for the first time

mens semis tomorrow: i think djokovic wins the tournament but i think value is on dimitrov who served big vs murray...he has all the talent, big forehand, moves great, dimitrov hasn't lost on grass this year..will play him handicap for 1 unit and to win for a half unit


roger vs milos should be interesting...roger is roger and played very well vs wawrinka..but raonic's serve on grass is great..his 2nd serve on the ad side out wide to roger's backhand will be tough...roger will not have many break points..if milos can squeak out a break or 2 and win a breaker, this could go 5...will play him hc for 1 and to win for a half as well


i took the day off to watch mens semis and wc quarters so may post a trade or 2 if i can..enjoy the semis


Dimitrov +5 games +105 1 unit and +370 .5 unit


Raonic +4 games -120 1 unit and win +260 .5 unit


i think it's novak vs roger final but i think both underdogs stand a chance at these odds
 
I think Bouchard wins tomorrow will not wilt with it being her first slam final IMO

Bouchard +120 2 units
 
the hot canuck got taken to the woodshed....damn

didnt see that coming for genie

gl tomorrow man

have my play on fed...he's in a zone and hope it gets the 'ship
 
Toronto Quarters:
I am going to the night session today lopez/raonic and federer/ferrer...i gamble too much so i will have to have some money on it
raonic won washington and looked pretty good in the 3rd set vs benneteau yesterday...but going 3 vs sock and julien after washington is a lot of tennis..lopez is serving and volleying well...this match will be decided by a couple points...the odds are wack imo

federer had a tough time yesterday vs cilic, he should've finished it in 2 having 7 match points on cilic's service game but misfired on all of them...marin has a big game but ferrer will cause him less problems as he doesn't have the firepower...ferrer did not look good vs dodig..federer has never lost to ferrer

in the daytime today we have tsonga vs murray...tsonga destroyed novak yesterday..novak played listless tennis...this could be a good match
following the first match we have dimitrov vs anderson..this could also be a tight match, good for trading
federer should come through the bottom half of the draw..murray will have a tougher time going through the top half but i think he will get it done

Quarter Plays:
Lopez +330 and +3 games vs Raonic (.5 unit on each)
Tsonga + 3 games (-110) vs Murray (0.5 unit)
Anderson +3 games (-125) vs Dimitrov (0.5 unit)
Federer to win 2 sets to 0 (-165) vs Ferrer (0.75 unit)
Future Plays:
Federer to win Rogers Cup +200 (1 unit)
Murray to play Federer in the Final +200 (1 unit)
 
thx torontomike...it was a good day..4-1 and had a chance for 5-0 as fed was up a set and break but needed 3...lost 1 future but the fed future looks nice now

think tsonga wins in the afternoon...will have a prop play for the night match later

Tsonga -135 vs Dimitrov 1 unit
 
tsonga wins in straights, he has beat djokovic, murray, and dimitrov in the last 3 days

roger is 10-0 vs lopez, haven't played in last 2 years.. you would think there will be tiebreaks...will play lopez handicap after the toss, looking for plus money at 3.5..for now will take lopez half unit at +450..would still take it small even if i didn't have roger for the tournament

Lopez +450 0.5 unit
 
i have fed to win tourney at +200..will put half a unit on tsonga today at +200 to green out and enjoy the match.i'll be playing cincii as well starting tomorrow

Tsonga +200 (0.5 unit)
 
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[TD="class: forumpost-post"]monfils beat fed last time they played and this will be a long match i think...fed needed 3 for pospisil,played a bunch of tennis recently and monfils rolled first 2 rounds..think that it will be closer than odds suggest


youz has a good record vs ferrer, will take him too...2 dogs tonight, trade from there


Cincii 3rd Round


Monfils +240 vs Fed 1.5 units


Youz +160 vs Ferrer1 unit
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haven't been very good recently..hopefully we have a good us open

think jerzy may be out of gas after winston salem

Anderson -140 vs Jerzy 1.4 unit
 
3rd round today...think that monfils beats gasquet..he has had a better summer and as long as he stays in it mentally he should take this

will take lopez over thiem as well...lopez has a bigger game for the hard courts...thiem lost to ginepri and simon in the hard court tuneups


i like monfils more than gasquet in terms of plays


think cilic beats anderson in 3 or 4


Monfils -135 vs Gasquet 1.35 to win 1


Lopez -130 vs Thiem 1.3 to win 1
 
easy win for monfils...bad bet on lopez...2-1 for the open

think tsonga should not be +130 to murray..he just beat murray in toronto and murray hasn't had a great season...think the serve will be the difference...it is humid so the ball will be moving


Tsonga +130 vs Murray 1.5 to win 2


will trade raonic/nishikori and robredo/wawrinka...think that djokovic wins in 3 vs kohl
 
Posting from phone
Nobody would have predicted kei/Marin final..kei has looked very good beating Milos Stan and Novak ..cilic did not lose a set to berdych or roger

Cilic is bombing those first serves (he started in the berdych match). He is not missing his groundies and hits a harder ball than nishikori. I think the Croat wins his first major today . I took this when the line came out Saturday and it has hovered in the +105 to +110 range. I would take this now as I think the line comes down

Cilic +110 3 units to win 3.3
 
agreed here.
Kei honestly looked toast after the 1-6 2nd set, really thought Joker would manhandle him after, his body language just looked like a man who had nothing much left.
But I have no idea how the fuck he managed to not only regain himself but to beat one of the greatest players of all time who had momentum.
Cilic serve is not getting touched unless of course he some how just loses it. He's got fucking Goran on his side...but then again Kei got Chang lol. Love how all these legends are helping the young bloods.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
agreed here.
Kei honestly looked toast after the 1-6 2nd set, really thought Joker would manhandle him after, his body language just looked like a man who had nothing much left.
But I have no idea how the fuck he managed to not only regain himself but to beat one of the greatest players of all time who had momentum.
Cilic serve is not getting touched unless of course he some how just loses it. He's got fucking Goran on his side...but then again Kei got Chang lol. Love how all these legends are helping the young bloods.
Click to expand...

Milos should go get Sampras
 
Ya im soo baffled how hes fav... I had the joker/kei match live n i saw the way kei was lookin in the 3rd n said to myself joker is goin to roll here... He will get that 1 break n its rolling time.... N kei kept holdin n holdin n holdin... Im like wtf is joker doin... Again i think he got pysched out n expected kei to hand it to him ala Stan n next thing u know hes down 4-0 in a tiebreaker n i think flat out choked... Which hes capable of doin.. Hes a head case thats y he brought Boris on for the mental part because he knows sometimes he just goes away in big stages... That was the case in the 4th joker showed no resolve.. I think cilic is crusin n wins but maybe the books feel his serve cant "stay on" n maybe the semis was his peak no serve=no win ... I wont go against the power game cuz if hes on u cant stop it although Kei has showed he canhang
 
Hi guys posting from phone again

Cilic played on another level. After I saw him dismantle berdych (I was on berdych lol) I knew he was ready. He beat berdych roger and kei without dropping a set . He hits too big a ball and was serving huge with great movement . It was never really a match. Nice to win the last match of the tournament . See you guys soon
 
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