Super Bowl discussion

Joe Public

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
Someone had to start it and I'm pretty sure Alex is drunk. So instead of bitching, I'm adapting.

Two things from me:

1. I think this line is off. Manning is a huge public favorite, why you don't start this thing at Broncos -3ish is beyond me. You could have put this at Broncos -6 and still got public money. So a PK/-1 doesn't make much sense to me. Full disclosure, I did bet Denver immediately. I'm not totally convinced they win, but I think this number only goes up so I think buying out with a middle shot could absolutely happen. And if I can tease Seattle to DD and the under up, hey, I'll take that too.

2. Honestly, my biggest fear in holding a Denver ticket is John Fox & Jack Del Rio. I realize that basically this game comes down to Peyton Manning vs. Pete Carroll, so that makes me feel better. But Denver's coaching staff doesn't fill me with a lot of confidence.
 
I hate this game as a fan Joe. But if Pete doesn't let his ego get in the way, runs the ball, controls TOP, I don't see how SEA doesn't win this in a war of attrition.
 
@DShareef: The #SuperBowl line has moved 5 points in 45 minutes. From Seattle -2 to Denver -3. Interested to see what it kicks off at when sharps r in
 
Funny, as a fan I like it more than Denver vs. SF—although I think Denver/SF would be a better game. Mostly because Boldin is unstoppable in the playoffs, Kap is more dynamic than Wilson and, really, Phil Dawson could very well win the Super Bowl all by himself.

That said, you've got a nice throwback AFC West matchup, and you have arguably the league's best defense vs the best offense. As SF was driving I had that moment of thinking, 'Oh, no, don't score. You're going to be without Bowman for the SB. Your defense won't be the same.'

Just from a matchup standpoint I think you can make the argument that Manning vs. that secondary is going to be interesting. Also, the whole fucking world wants Manning to win, which will be annoying as shit so there's something to root against right there.
 
@DShareef: The #SuperBowl line has moved 5 points in 45 minutes. From Seattle -2 to Denver -3. Interested to see what it kicks off at when sharps r in

Who opened this at -2? General NFC vs AFC line?
 
Might be the first time in 6 years I don't take a side in the Super Bowl

I didn't in the Arizona/Pittsburgh game. Well, I may have had a token AZ+ bet, but I was much more about the total there. I had no plans to bet this SB until the line came out. None.
 
my book had NFC -1.5 this morning before both games.

I think that's what they're talking about. I believe I saw NFC -2 around town early in the playoffs & maybe even somewhere this week. But to me that doesn't count as your open.

Your open is once the matchup is set, what that line is.

Long time before game-time, but I'll how Moreno comes back.
 
I have already proven over the last 4 months that I know nothing about football, so I will add to that by saying that I think Seattle is way too good at the line of scrimmage. On offense they should run right over the top of that Bronco DL. On defense, they will put more pressure on Manning than he has seen against anyone else this year. Nobody for nobody would confuse that rag tag Patriots front seven with this group Carroll has.
 
GF, I'm in the same boat. I literally checked out the regular season my first six-ish weeks were so bad. The NFL simply wasn't fun.

You make a great point about LOS. What's interesting to me is that I'm not truly sold on the schedule of either team. I give Seattle all the credit in the world for beating SF, but they literally build to beat SF—for obvious reasons. It's like giving the Steez props for beating the Ravens. Well, that's 'exactly' who they should build to beat.

But they should beat NO at home just like Denver should have handled both NE & SD.

So let's look at the rest of the schedules.

The Seahawks played the AFC & NFC South this year outside of their division. There are what, a combined four good teams from those divisions? Of those four good teams, you played two on the road, Indy where you lost and Carolina. Only you played Carolina in the first game of the season and they started the year really slow. Oh, and you should have lost at Houston.

Don't get me wrong, I actually think the Seahawks are a one of the top three teams in the league, but their schedule ... engh.

Meanwhile, Denver, OK so like Seattle you had that one really good team in your division and then the tough out in SD. But you had to play KC twice. Only you match up great against them so there's that. But let's say Seattle and Denver both had a difficult total inter-division schedule.

But if it's possible to play a worse out of division schedule than Seattle, Denver may have done it. The NFC East? Ugh. And the AFC South. Denver also loses at Indy, and gets Tenny at home just like Seattle. Denver benefits even more getting Houston well after they'd quit on the year. Other than that, at NYG? At Dallas? That division was shit.

So, even though these teams are really good, it's not as if they had a really difficult road this year.
 
the way its going I expect it to hit 3 soon

only question there is to risk waiting out 3.5 or get on 3 before it moves
 
KC is probably the closest thing Denver has seen to Seattle. Mixed reviews on the results but KC didn't get much pressure on Manning with short passing. I will have to go back and look through the games though
 
Hm.. I'm looking at and I realized something

I need to stop bitching and fuckin adapt
 
KC is probably the closest thing Denver has seen to Seattle. Mixed reviews on the results but KC didn't get much pressure on Manning with short passing.

I'm not going to put a lot on those KC games. Denver matches up really, really well against KC and Manning has a history of owning Andy Reid.

What concerns me is Seattle's defense having two weeks to plan for this game.

I need to stop bitching and fuckin adapt

Ditto. This is just so true.
 
I think KC and Seattle are different

Chiefs played Denver twice after their secondary went to shit and was getting lit up constantly, Seattle has the best secondary in football

Cheifs D wasn't good after their bye, it was below average (injury/scheme whatever it was that's what denver saw)
 
I think Manning has about 60 pass attempts, 30 of them for less than 10 yards, going to be a Welker prop extravaganza for me. Manning won't let himself get beat up because he knows they are going to be coming for him. Status update on Moreno? This could be a big one. I'm all over the Broncos already but may take a shot at a middle on some of my action if this line gets to the 3.5 area as all of my action is under 2.5
 
i know it was preseason, and i know it was in seattle, but for the time the starters were actually in the game, one night i found myself watching in the middle of the night at peyton manning look completely lost on a football field for the first time in my life. hell i dont remember w/o looking if it was this past year or the year prior, but i cant get that image out of my head, perhaps an omen.

i always take the team to win a super bowl that has a better 1. defense. 2. run game. so i will take seattle whatever the spread and gladly take a fg if they give it to me for a lot of $$
 
I'm with Egg. Which was the game, was it the first KC game where Manning had that injured ankle and they adapted by throwing short passes all game? What was he sacked, once all day?

Of course, my record when I bet a team immediately after a game is HORRIBLE. Really, if you want someone to jinx the Broncos, me betting them tonight may have just done that.

Although, in fairness, I really did bet it mostly to take what I believe is a bad number.
 
Joe Public said:
I'm with Egg. Which was the game, was it the first KC game where Manning had that injured ankle and they adapted by throwing short passes all game? What was he sacked, once all day?

Of course, my record when I bet a team immediately after a game is HORRIBLE. Really, if you want someone to jinx the Broncos, me betting them tonight may have just done that.

Although, in fairness, I really did bet it mostly to take what I believe is a bad number.
Click to expand...
this is why i will probably play a manning completions over prop. lots of dink and dunk to offset the seattle pass rush. this is more or less what I was getting at by comparing KC to Seattle match ups vs. Donks.
 
The other thing that I'd wager most of the country isn't thinking about—yet—is the possibility of weather.

It's all well and good that these are two cold weather teams, but Denver today was unseasonably warm. Hopefully it's just cold in two weeks, but you're basically having these teams play a night game, in New Jersey, in February for the Super Bowl.

Which seems a fair reward for getting to the Super Bowl. Ugh.
 
its 1 at 5d

Related:

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P-Unit said:
this is why i will probably play a manning completions over prop. lots of dink and dunk to offset the seattle pass rush. this is more or less what I was getting at by comparing KC to Seattle match ups vs. Donks.
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
Planned on playing Seattle -1 anyways so let it keep going up as dog...

JP points out weather...definitely something to watch...but moreso as a Donks backer...
 
nbafan88 said:
Can Denver contain Lynch? I just don't think so.
Click to expand...


Hold my diiiick!! (speaking of Darren Sharper, lol)

#skittles


Skittles-Seahawks.368.png
 
I think Sea's D is Peyton's worst nightmare and Lynch will help Sea move the chains and keep PM off the field. I do like the Peyton over completions bet ... that's his only way to stay alive.

I'd be surprised if this gets to 3.5 or 4.
 
Are they playing this game in century link field???

unless there's a foot of snow, Denver wins by two touchdowns
 
the last 2 days I took a bath winning on I think 1 game but please let this game it 3.5 or 4 the public will be on Denver. because the public loves betting teams that scores points here we go again the best offence goes against the best D. and we all no what happens most of the time the D takes over. like I said and this was the only thing I was right about seattle has the 2 best corners in football good luck going against them. NE could not put any pressure on manning seattle will you can bet on that. will seattle win we have 2 weeks to think about that
 
@NFL_ATL: X-rays on Knowshon Moreno's ribs come back negative. John Fox calls Broncos RB "day-to-day." http://t.co/wMEG3L1Jrs

In the words of Keith Olbermann, aren't we all, Jump. Aren't we all.

Also, thanks for this, good info.
 
denver had a relatively easy playoff run…..sd didn't show up until the 4th quarter and the pats (my team) couldn't have made it any easier for them (ugly game)….they did play pretty good d in both those games…especially against the run….so i do not think we should just think lynch is going to run all over them….they could key on lynch and force russell to beat them with his play action and arm…i am jaded because i can't stand manning,i think he is one big phony who has spent his entire career on stage….that being clarified i was surprised at the opening line and further surprised at the early movement…i got seattle at 2 and am happy that i have the team with a better d,more physical,stronger ol and dl,better running back and getting points….seems easy…lol
 
So right now seattle is +2 at my shop...is it going to get back to 3? Would hate to lock in 2 and have it get to 3...I stink at predicting line movement so looking for help from the smart folks....
 
Would like to get into more discussion about the Russell Wilson factor here. Seems like he's being asked to play the Trent Dilfer role the deeper they get into the playoffs, throw it maybe 15 or 20 times, rely on the running game and the defense to carry us. When he really needed a throw though, on that 4th and 2, or on that deep ball to Baldwin, he threw a terrific passes. Can he keep that up in the SB? Or will we see more of the Wilson who held on to the ball too long, and as a consequence took sacks and had a couple of grounding calls that a savvier QB like Manning wouldn't have happen?
 
Smokedawg said:
Are they playing this game in century link field???

unless there's a foot of snow, Denver wins by two touchdowns
Click to expand...
yea I am with you...maybe not this big, but Denver is winning this game

game aint in SEA.....I don't care if there is a blizzard

Denver wins
 
As a Hawk backer, I hate the Peyton storyline.......feels a lot like the Jerome Bettis playing last game in super-bowl in home town BS...and we know how the fuckkin NFL officials stole that game from the Hawks........Ray Lewis swan song last year.....just seems that the great story seems to always be completed for the NFL.......

If you are betting, i don't know how you can't wait until there is a bit more certainty about the weather.........the worse the weather, the better for the Hawks.....big factor imo

of course, I am backing Hawks in any event b/c I am a homer......if I can grab +3 even at 115 or 120 I will jump in big......can't friggin wait
 
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