Super Bowl Champion

SUPER BOWL FUTURES UPDATED
*Teams in BOLD qualify for playoff*

 NFC
Detroit Lions (1ST TIER) NFC #1
Seattle Seahawks (1ST TIER) NFC #9
San Francisco 49ers (1ST TIER) NFC #12 ELIMINATED
----------
Philadelphia Eagles (2ND TIER) NFC #2
Minnesota Vikings (2ND TIER) NFC #5
Green Bay Packers (2ND TIER) NFC #6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2ND TIER) NFC #8
New Orleans Saints (2ND TIER) NFC #13 ELIMINATED
----------
Washington Commanders (3RD TIER) NFC #7
Dallas Cowboys (3RD TIER) NFC #10 ELIMINATED
---------
Arizona Cardinals (4TH TIER) NFC #11 ELIMINATED
Atlanta Falcons (4TH TIER) NFC #4 ELIMINATED
Chicago Bears (4TH TIER) NFC #14 ELIMINATED
----------
Carolina Panthers (5TH TIER) NFC #15 ELIMINATED
----------
Los Angeles Rams (6TH TIER) NFC #3 ELIMINATED
New York Giants (6TH TIER) NFC #16 ELIMINATED

AFC
Baltimore Ravens (1ST TIER) AFC #5
----------
Kansas City Chiefs (2ND TIER) AFC #1
Buffalo Bills (2ND TIER) AFC #2
Pittsburgh Steelers (2ND TIER) AFC #3
New York Jets (2ND TIER) AFC #11 ELIMINATED
----------
Houston Texans (3RD TIER) AFC #4
Los Angeles Chargers (3RD TIER) AFC #6
Denver Broncos (3RD TIER) AFC #7
Indianapolis Colts (3RD TIER) AFC #8
Cincinnati Bengals (3RD TIER) AFC #10
----------
Las Vegas Raiders (4TH TIER) AFC #15 ELIMINATED
----------
Cleveland Browns (5TH TIER) AFC #12 ELIMINATED
Tennessee Titans (5TH TIER) AFC #14 ELIMINATED
----------
Miami Dolphins (6TH TIER) AFC #9 ELIMINATED
New England Patriots (6TH TIER) AFC #16 ELIMINATED
----------
Jacksonville Jaguars (7TH TIER) AFC #13 ELIMINATED

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
SUPER BOWL FUTURES UPDATED

*Teams in BOLD qualify for playoff*
*Tier's finalized prior to the start of week 5*
*ELIMINATED teams WILL NOT participate in SB*

 NFC
DETROIT LIONS (1ST TIER) NFC #1
Seattle Seahawks (1ST TIER) NFC #8
----------
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2ND TIER) NFC #5
GREEN BAYPACKERS (2ND TIER) NFC #6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2ND TIER) NFC #9
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #7
---------
ATLANTA FALCONS (4TH TIER) NFC #4 ELIMINATED
----------
LOS ANGELES RAMS (6TH TIER) NFC #3 ELIMINATED

AFC
BALTIMORE RAVENS (1ST TIER) AFC #3
----------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS(2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2ND TIER) AFC #5
----------
HOUSTON TEXANS (3RD TIER) AFC #4
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (3RD TIER) AFC #6
DENVER BRONCOS (3RD TIER) AFC #7
Indianapolis Colts (3RD TIER) AFC #8
Cincinnati Bengals (3RD TIER) AFC #10
----------
Miami Dolphins (6TH TIER) AFC #9 ELIMINATED

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
SUPER BOWL FUTURES UPDATED

*Teams in BOLD qualify for playoff*
*Tier's finalized prior to the start of week 5*
*ELIMINATED teams WILL NOT participate in SB*

 NFC
DETROIT LIONS (1ST TIER) NFC #1
----------
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
TAMPA BAYBUCCANEERS (2ND TIER) NFC #4
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2ND TIER) NFC #5
GREEN BAY PACKERS (2ND TIER) NFC #7
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #6
---------
ATLANTA FALCONS (4TH TIER) NFC #9 ELIMINATED
----------
LOS ANGELES RAMS (6TH TIER) NFC #3 ELIMINATED

AFC
BALTIMORE RAVENS (1ST TIER) AFC #3
----------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS(2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2ND TIER) AFC #5
----------
HOUSTON TEXANS (3RD TIER) AFC #4
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (3RD TIER) AFC #6
DENVER BRONCOS (3RD TIER) AFC #7
Cincinnati Bengals (3RD TIER) AFC #9
----------
Miami Dolphins (6TH TIER) AFC #8 ELIMINATED

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
Last edited:
SUPER BOWL FUTURES UPDATED

*Teams in BOLD qualify for playoff*
*Tier's finalized prior to the start of week 5*
*ELIMINATED teams WILL NOT participate in SB*

 NFC
DETROIT LIONS (1ST TIER) NFC #1
----------
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2ND TIER) NFC #4
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2ND TIER) NFC #5
GREEN BAY PACKERS (2ND TIER) NFC #7
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #6
---------
ATLANTA FALCONS (4TH TIER) NFC #9 ELIMINATED
----------
LOS ANGELES RAMS (6TH TIER) NFC #3 ELIMINATED

AFC
BALTIMORE RAVENS (1ST TIER) AFC #3
----------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2ND TIER) AFC #6
----------
HOUSTON TEXANS (3RD TIER) AFC #4
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (3RD TIER) AFC #5
DENVER BRONCOS (3RD TIER) AFC #7
Cincinnati Bengals (3RD TIER) AFC #8
----------
Miami Dolphins (6TH TIER) AFC #9 ELIMINATED

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
Eliminated teams.....

I would love for the Falcons to sneak into the #4 seed.

The Rams will be an instant fade in the WC round/playoffs no matter who they play.

I wouldn't be to thrilled if the Dolphins get in. The ML vs the Bills would be higher than I'd be willing to bet.
 
FINAL UPDATE

*Tier's finalized prior to the start of week 5*
*ELIMINATED teams WILL NOT participate in SB*

 NFC
DETROIT LIONS (1ST TIER) NFC #1
----------
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2ND TIER) NFC #3
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2ND TIER) NFC #5
GREEN BAY PACKERS (2ND TIER) NFC #7
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #6
----------
LOS ANGELES RAMS (6TH TIER) NFC #4 ELIMINATED

AFC
BALTIMORE RAVENS (1ST TIER) AFC #3
----------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2ND TIER) AFC #6
----------
HOUSTON TEXANS (3RD TIER) AFC #4
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (3RD TIER) AFC #5
DENVER BRONCOS (3RD TIER) AFC #7
----------

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
My first bet in the WC round is the Minnesota Vikings -122 @ Los Angeles Rams. That should come to no suprise to whomever has followed this thread.

If by chance the Rams win, I'll double up and fade them again in the Divisional round and so on until they lose. The odds of the Rams being a SB participant is 0% based on the last 21 years of data being a 6th Tier team.
 
Loves2kickass said:
My first bet in the WC round is the Minnesota Vikings -122 @ Los Angeles Rams. That should come to no suprise to whomever has followed this thread.

If by chance the Rams win, I'll double up and fade them again in the Divisional round and so on until they lose. The odds of the Rams being a SB participant is 0% based on the last 21 years of data being a 6th Tier team.
Click to expand...
Hopefully Sam isn't seeing ghosts as he often does in big games.
 
Loves2kickass said:
My first bet in the WC round is the Minnesota Vikings -122 @ Los Angeles Rams. That should come to no suprise to whomever has followed this thread.

If by chance the Rams win, I'll double up and fade them again in the Divisional round and so on until they lose. The odds of the Rams being a SB participant is 0% based on the last 21 years of data being a 6th Tier team.
Click to expand...

I thought I saw a stat that no #5 seed has won a super bowl. That would be Minnesota.
 
But if you're doing a rolling moneyline you will still get a favorable moneyline on Detroit if that's the way it goes. That line won't be any more than 3/3.5
 
I personally think Washington beats the BUCS and Rams play the eagles. In that case you'd be laying -5/6
 
I think its Detroit easily in the NFC and they will face either Buffalo or KC in the Super Bowl. The only team I could see shocking everyone is the Chargers thats all due to how good a coach Harbaugh is.

Until I see Lamar not choke in the playoffs I have no belief in Baltimore and I don't see anyone in the NFC that will challenge Detroit.
 
Brewers888 said:
I think its Detroit easily in the NFC and they will face either Buffalo or KC in the Super Bowl. The only team I could see shocking everyone is the Chargers thats all due to how good a coach Harbaugh is.

Until I see Lamar not choke in the playoffs I have no belief in Baltimore and I don't see anyone in the NFC that will challenge Detroit.
Click to expand...

Bro the Rams, Vikings, and eagles can all best Detroit. Especially Philly.
 
Am I better off betting the short Lions futures which is at +295 or betting them on the money line and rolling it over every game.
 
Loves2kickass said:
I'm not picking the Vikings to win the championship. My play is a fade of the 6th Tier Rams.
Click to expand...

I realize that. I thought a 5 seed hadn't won one before. I'll probably have Rams in some fashion small. That data is flawed with them imo because of their multiple injuries earlier in year.
 
HUNT said:
I thought I saw a stat that no #5 seed has won a super bowl. That would be Minnesota.
Click to expand...
The Los Angeles Rams are a 6th Tier team. Any team that is in the playoffs as a 4th Tier - 7th Tier team are an auto fade. The results L21 seasons of those teams below.

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
Loves2kickass said:
The Los Angeles Rams are a 6th Tier team. Any team that is in the playoffs as a 4th Tier - 7th Tier team are an auto fade. The results L21 seasons of those teams below.

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
Click to expand...

But you're doing a fade chase correct?
 
I'll have my 3 possible Super Bowl winning teams and a couple Super Bowl Exacta's by Friday night/Saturday morning at the latest based on my Tiers and other proven factors of previous Super Bowl Champions L21 seasons.
 
Loves2kickass said:
I'll have my 3 possible Super Bowl winning teams and a couple Super Bowl Exacta's by Friday night/Saturday morning at the latest based on my Tiers and other proven factors of previous Super Bowl Champions L21 seasons.
Click to expand...

I don't expect the Lions on that list purely based on your disdain for Dan Campbell.
 
HUNT said:
I don't expect the Lions on that list purely based on your disdain for Dan Campbell.
Click to expand...
Any disdain has NO part of my bet options. This is 100% based on L21 years of season data (Tiers), regular season data this season and proven factors of past Super Bowl Champions.
 
SB Champion Projections -

There's 6 teams that must be considered as the 2025 NFL Champion but I've narrowed them down to my top 3 teams (BOLD). Besides my Team Tiers (finalized prior to week 5), I consider and take into account many other factors.

AFC
3Baltimore Ravens (1st Tier)
2Buffalo Bills (2nd Tier)
1Kansas City Chiefs (2nd Tier)

NFC
5Minnesota Vikings (2nd Tier)
1Detroit Lions (1st Tier)
2Philadelphia Eagles (2nd Tier)

Even though this season is wide, wide open with any of the listed 6 teams possibly winning it all i believe the SB champion could come from a possible Divisional matchup of Baltimore/Buffalo.

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%

I've posted the above SB participant/champion Tier results L21 years all season. As you can see 1st Tier teams have a distinct advantage, followed by 2nd & 3rd Tier teams.

With all that being said, Detroit, Philadelphia & Kansas City are very capable and I wouldn't be surprised if one of those are holding the 🏆.

My 3 teams in BOLD above can be used for Super Bowl Champion single bets and/or Super Bowl Exacta's. A strategy also could be to wait for Baltimore, Buffalo and/or Minnesota to lose and then make the wagers with less possible outcomes.

Good luck!
 
A few futures with good value -

SB Champion Odds (Circa)
Baltimore +545 (1st Tier)
Buffalo +530 (2nd Tier)
Minnesota +2150 (2nd Tier)

SB Exacta Odds (Circa)
Buffalo def Minnesota +5300
Baltimore def Minnesota +5900
 
Isn't it strange when a puzzle comes together L21 seasons. I'm just missing 1 piece. Can you find it?

NFC
DETROIT LIONS (1ST TIER) NFC #1
----------
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2ND TIER) NFC #5
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #6
----------
LOS ANGELES RAMS (6TH TIER) NFC #4 ELIMINATED

AFC
BALTIMORE RAVENS (1ST TIER) AFC #3
----------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
----------
HOUSTON TEXANS (3RD TIER) AFC #4
----------

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
Here's another clue to the last piece of the puzzle. Below are the Tiers remaining at the completion of the WC round the last few years. I can post the 17 prior seasons but the pattern remains the same. Maybe this season will be the outlier.

2024
5TB 2ND TIER
3DET 1ST TIER
7GB 2ND TIER
1SF 1ST TIER
3KC 1ST TIER
2BUF 1ST TIER
4HOU 2ND TIER
1BAL 1ST TIER

2023
3CIN 1ST TIER
2BUF 1ST TIER
4JAC 2ND TIER
1KC 1ST TIER
5DAL 3RD TIER
2SF 2ND TIER
6NYG 3RD TIER
1PHI 1ST TIER

2022
6SF 3RD TIER
1GB 2ND TIER
4LAR 1ST TIER
2TB 2ND TIER
4CIN 2ND TIER
1TEN 3RD TIER
3BUF 1ST TIER
2KC 2ND TIER

2021
5BAL 1ST TIER
2BUF 2ND TIER
6CLE 3RD TIER
1KC 1ST TIER
5TB 1ST TIER
2NO 2ND TIER
6LAR 2ND TIER
1GB 3RD TIER
 
Loves2kickass said:
SB Champion Projections -

There's 6 teams that must be considered as the 2025 NFL Champion but I've narrowed them down to my top 3 teams (BOLD). Besides my Team Tiers (finalized prior to week 5), I consider and take into account many other factors.

AFC
3Baltimore Ravens (1st Tier)
2Buffalo Bills (2nd Tier)
1Kansas City Chiefs (2nd Tier)

NFC
5Minnesota Vikings (2nd Tier)
1Detroit Lions (1st Tier)
2Philadelphia Eagles (2nd Tier)

Even though this season is wide, wide open with any of the listed 6 teams possibly winning it all i believe the SB champion could come from a possible Divisional matchup of Baltimore/Buffalo.

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%

I've posted the above SB participant/champion Tier results L21 years all season. As you can see 1st Tier teams have a distinct advantage, followed by 2nd & 3rd Tier teams.

With all that being said, Detroit, Philadelphia & Kansas City are very capable and I wouldn't be surprised if one of those are holding the 🏆.

My 3 teams in BOLD above can be used for Super Bowl Champion single bets and/or Super Bowl Exacta's. A strategy also could be to wait for Baltimore, Buffalo and/or Minnesota to lose and then make the wagers with less possible outcomes.

Good luck!
Click to expand...

So you believe the Vikings are the best team in the NFC? Interesting.
 
HUNT said:
So you believe the Vikings are the best team in the NFC? Interesting.
Click to expand...
Not necessarily. Detroit & Philadelphia are close, real close as I mentioned in my quoted comment.

If you were to ask me if any other NFC team besides Minnesota will win the Championship the answer would be NO.

If Minnesota loses on Monday the Super Bowl Champion will be the team who wins the Baltimore/Buffalo game.

"I believe the SB champion could come from a possible Divisional matchup of Baltimore/Buffalo".
 
Loves2kickass said:
Not necessarily. Detroit & Philadelphia are close, real close as I mentioned in my quoted comment.

If you were to ask me if any other NFC team besides Minnesota will win the Championship the answer would be NO.

If Minnesota loses on Monday the Super Bowl Champion will be the team who wins the Baltimore/Buffalo game.

"I believe the SB champion could come from a possible Divisional matchup of Baltimore/Buffalo".
Click to expand...

It's the same thing, you think they are the best team in the NFC if you believe they are the only ones capable of winning the championship from the NFC. Just semantics.

I can see the Lions having a hard time with the Eagles and anyone from the AFC except Texans. Think they live in Sam's head though. Stafford will be a tough out for them too if they win tonight and beat the Eagles. Just my 2 cents.
 
HUNT said:
It's the same thing, you think they are the best team in the NFC if you believe they are the only ones capable of winning the championship from the NFC. Just semantics.

I can see the Lions having a hard time with the Eagles and anyone from the AFC except Texans. Think they live in Sam's head though. Stafford will be a tough out for them too if they win tonight and beat the Eagles. Just my 2 cents.
Click to expand...
Incorrect. If I thought that I would have bet Minnesota to win the NFC. Philly and Det could get to the Bowl and lose, no?

If Minnesota wins the Championship it will be defeating Buffalo, not Baltimore. That's based on L21 seasons of results.

It will become more clearer as the playoffs progress. As I mentioned as those 3 teams mentioned get eliminated the possibilities decease/odds and the predicted outcome increases.
 
Last edited:
@HUNT look at comment #292 & #293. I'm very confident with my -122 bet on Minnesota Vikings v the Los Angeles Rams that i posted well before the venue change. It's all about the L21 seasons of results. IF I lose I fade Rams again.

If Minnesota does lose then you may want to bet the AFC to win the Super Bowl (Balt/Buf).
 
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