Super Bowl Champion

UPDATE

Remaining Teams
2ND TIER - 3
3RD TIER - 1

NFC
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #6

AFC
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
----------

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
Loves2kickass said:
UPDATE

Remaining Teams
2ND TIER - 3
3RD TIER - 1

NFC
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #6

AFC
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
----------

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
Click to expand...

You still feel strongly on Buffalo beating KC? What data is that based on besides the tiers?
 
Capaholic said:
Refs missing 3 fgs, leaving Kelce open all day and getting sacked 8 times def helped.

The first roughing has been called like that for years. The crown hit the face mask. It’s roughing. Second one as a ball carrier I woulda preferred not called.

This site is like 98 percent “fuck your feelings” maga so I’m surprised everyone gets so upset about the officiating when the actual data does not support this. Josh Allen gets significantly more roughing and PI and nary a whisper here.

Chiefs will continue to be one of the more penalized teams in the league and everyone will still cry outrage just like we all did for the Patriots for years. Someone just needs to beat them. Then everyone can be happy again.

Nothing against u specifically hunt it’s just hearing this every day is tiresome. Officiating is bad. We are on tv every week. Ur gonna see bad calls with us more than most teams.

Go Rams/Ravens parlay today
Click to expand...
Do you realize only you and Chiefs fans feel this way?
 
twinkie13 said:
Do you realize only you and Chiefs fans feel this way?
Click to expand...

Chiefs were called for the most holding calls in the league.

They are middle of the pack in roughing the passer and pass int.

There was a graph yesterday that in the 4th quarter there was no increase of benefiting from penalties for them.

Now. I am also realistic. I’m giving you facts. When it was the Patriots, I felt like you. The Chiefs are on almost every week. They are on commercials. They have Taylor Swift.

There is serious Chiefs fatigue and I get it. And when the whole world tunes in and there are questionable calls, clearly it’s going to fees into a bias argument.

Those of us who watch even the shittiest teams regularly don’t take to the internet to say “damn the Panthers get all the calls” Officiating is bad. Across the board.

There’s been countless posts on twitter detailing calls against KC and that other teams benefit far more than them. (Hint; they play one this week)

But long story short, I get why anyone would be tired of the Chiefs in their faces at all times and looking like they benefit from the refs.
 
HUNT said:
You still feel strongly on Buffalo beating KC? What data is that based on besides the tiers?
Click to expand...
My personal opinion is still the winner of the BAL/BUF game should be the Champion. It's pretty close between BUF and KC as you can see by the futures odds (BUF +230/KC +230) and like most other playoff games will be determined by turnovers. Besides Tiers I use several proven team data factors from previous playoff results.

Although the system didn't provide a 1st Tier champion it did continue to predict NO 4th Tier - 7th Tier team as the champion. Also, of the 4 remaining teams, 3 of them are 2nd Tier teams. 2nd Tier and 3rd Tier teams have now been a Super Bowl participant a combined 15/44, 34% and a Super Bowl Champion 6/22, 27% for the last 22 seasons.

Ist Tier champion predictions aren't bullet proof and being there were only 2 teams in that category at the start of the playoffs and the fact of how close the top 6 teams were that I mentioned pre playoffs I'm not surprised of the 4 teams remaining, besides 3rd Tier Washington.

At this point BUF v PHI appears to be the Super Bowl matchup but that's obviously not going to come easily and not as strong of a prediction if BAL or DET would have advanced to this point.

Speaking of WAS, if they happen to make it to the Super Bowl I'd feel real confident with a Side (ATS) and game total opinion based solely on past 3rd Tier Super Bowl results and previous Wild Card participant Super Bowl results.

As we've seen this season and previous seasons, predicting Super Bowl futures is a hard nut to crack and changes weekly after each playoff round but the Tiers normally help narrow the field down to just a few teams.
 
Capaholic said:
Chiefs were called for the most holding calls in the league.

They are middle of the pack in roughing the passer and pass int.

There was a graph yesterday that in the 4th quarter there was no increase of benefiting from penalties for them.

Now. I am also realistic. I’m giving you facts. When it was the Patriots, I felt like you. The Chiefs are on almost every week. They are on commercials. They have Taylor Swift.

There is serious Chiefs fatigue and I get it. And when the whole world tunes in and there are questionable calls, clearly it’s going to fees into a bias argument.

Those of us who watch even the shittiest teams regularly don’t take to the internet to say “damn the Panthers get all the calls” Officiating is bad. Across the board.

There’s been countless posts on twitter detailing calls against KC and that other teams benefit far more than them. (Hint; they play one this week)

But long story short, I get why anyone would be tired of the Chiefs in their faces at all times and looking like they benefit from the refs.
Click to expand...

It's not the amount of calls. It's WHEN you get the calls during the game. An important 3rd down, red zone, etc.
 
HUNT said:
It's not the amount of calls. It's WHEN you get the calls during the game. An important 3rd down, red zone, etc.
Click to expand...

Again, I get what the perception is. Despite the data showing that it’s not the case. Time of game, down etc.

Case in point. Everyone remembered in week 2 that Cincy got rightfully called for PI on 4th and 16th, giving the Chiefs life and they eventually won. Damn refs.

Nobody remembers that the play before on 4th and 6, the Chiefs got a first down and it was called back for holding. Making it 4th and 16.

There has yet to be one single data point that shows KC getting advantageous calls at optimal times. There are data points that support that for the Bills. But we aren’t ready for that conversation or have gotten tired of them yet.
 
Prior to the playoffs I did post 6 potential SB winning teams with 3 in bold (BAL, BUF & MIN). I bet SB futures with all three of those teams defeating all possible playoff opponents with the exception of the 6th Tier Los Angeles Rams and solo SB future bets.

My last hope with my remaining futures are BUF def WASH and BUF def PHI. I also have a SB future with BUF remaining (BAL/MIN tickets eliminated) prior to the start of the playoffs so I may hedge that bet and my 2 futures. Those are BUF def PHI +2100 & BUF def WAS +16500. I mentioned this as an example of how I bet the Tier system.

I've lost a lot more tickets than I've won (SB, Division futures and single playoff bets) from the start of week 5 until today but as far as money is concerned I show a very slight profit so far. For transparency purposes I've posted several of those bets in this thread but not all. My largest win was mentioned in this thread with TB +800 to win division when they were 3 games behind Atlanta. Below is the screenshot of the odds when I made a few wagers that still remain.

1000011633.jpg
 
Capaholic said:
Again, I get what the perception is. Despite the data showing that it’s not the case. Time of game, down etc.

Case in point. Everyone remembered in week 2 that Cincy got rightfully called for PI on 4th and 16th, giving the Chiefs life and they eventually won. Damn refs.

Nobody remembers that the play before on 4th and 6, the Chiefs got a first down and it was called back for holding. Making it 4th and 16.

There has yet to be one single data point that shows KC getting advantageous calls at optimal times. There are data points that support that for the Bills. But we aren’t ready for that conversation or have gotten tired of them yet.
Click to expand...
I agree with you in the aspect of penalties with the Chiefs games are magnified due to their success over the past 4-5 seasons.
 
Capaholic said:
Again, I get what the perception is. Despite the data showing that it’s not the case. Time of game, down etc.

Case in point. Everyone remembered in week 2 that Cincy got rightfully called for PI on 4th and 16th, giving the Chiefs life and they eventually won. Damn refs.

Nobody remembers that the play before on 4th and 6, the Chiefs got a first down and it was called back for holding. Making it 4th and 16.

There has yet to be one single data point that shows KC getting advantageous calls at optimal times. There are data points that support that for the Bills. But we aren’t ready for that conversation or have gotten tired of them yet.
Click to expand...

It happens every year in the playoffs cap. There wouldn't be players speaking out about it or memes created out of thin air. This shit is real. They get the calls at the times that benefit them the most every damn playoff game almost.

I know you love your chiefs and you still have your 92 starter jacket which is fresh as hell but you guys got a 12th man in that field bro!
 
HUNT said:
It happens every year in the playoffs cap. There wouldn't be players speaking out about it or memes created out of thin air. This shit is real. They get the calls at the times that benefit them the most every damn playoff game almost.

I know you love your chiefs and you still have your 92 starter jacket which is fresh as hell but you guys got a 12th man in that field bro!
Click to expand...
I still got that Chiefs Zubaz outfit from the early 90’s somewhere in the house
 
Washington -

1, #6 seed has participated in and won the Super Bowl L21 seasons and that was the 1st Tier Green Bay Packers who defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2011 Super Bowl.
 
HUNT said:
It happens every year in the playoffs cap. There wouldn't be players speaking out about it or memes created out of thin air. This shit is real. They get the calls at the times that benefit them the most every damn playoff game almost.

I know you love your chiefs and you still have your 92 starter jacket which is fresh as hell but you guys got a 12th man in that field bro!
Click to expand...
Not to mention the false starts that could and should be called on virtually every snap… mostly committed by JT. It’s ridiculous
 
UPDATE

Remaining Teams
2ND TIER - 3

NFC
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2

AFC
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
----------

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS (2003-2024)
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS (2003-2024)
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
UPDATE

Remaining Teams
2ND TIER - 2

NFC
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2

AFC
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
----------

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS (2003-2024)
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS (2003-2024)
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
HUNT said:
It happens every year in the playoffs cap. There wouldn't be players speaking out about it or memes created out of thin air. This shit is real. They get the calls at the times that benefit them the most every damn playoff game almost.

I know you love your chiefs and you still have your 92 starter jacket which is fresh as hell but you guys got a 12th man in that field bro!
Click to expand...

As long as we say the nfl put Philly in SB then cool believe it a conspiracy to put kc in it even if it redic. All I see is mahomes is incredibly clever at manipulating the shit rules nfl been ruining the sport with. This what happens when you continually put in garbage rules that handcuff defenses: of course the best player in game gonna find ways to exploit them,. As long as you were saying exact same thing about patriots for 20 years since they got most the calls and exploited the rules plenty, they even changed a rule of what a fumble was to put them in w SB!! So long as you been consistent and agree before kc was apparently getting help from league the pats were for 20 years and eagles got a call every time a drive stalled then screw it we can agree the nfl is getting close to WWF but I said it 15 years ago give or take all the rules to help offenses were giving refs more and more control over outcomes and it why football my fav sport but nfl makes me incredibly indifferent
 
2daBank said:
As long as we say the nfl put Philly in SB then cool believe it a conspiracy to put kc in it even if it redic. All I see is mahomes is incredibly clever at manipulating the shit rules nfl been ruining the sport with. This what happens when you continually put in garbage rules that handcuff defenses: of course the best player in game gonna find ways to exploit them,. As long as you were saying exact same thing about patriots for 20 years since they got most the calls and exploited the rules plenty, they even changed a rule of what a fumble was to put them in w SB!! So long as you been consistent and agree before kc was apparently getting help from league the pats were for 20 years and eagles got a call every time a drive stalled then screw it we can agree the nfl is getting close to WWF but I said it 15 years ago give or take all the rules to help offenses were giving refs more and more control over outcomes and it why football my fav sport but nfl makes me incredibly indifferent
Click to expand...

I definitely felt the Pats were helped but it's much more prevalent for KC imo.
 
HUNT said:
I definitely felt the Pats were helped but it's much more prevalent for KC imo.
Click to expand...

I don’t think it is, it relative. The rules have just continued to slant more to where they easier to manipulate. Brady wouldn’t berm able to exploit same things since practically all the calls ppl hate are mahomes starting w a scramble and then doing that sideline crap that is totally on nfl to fix or with incredibly late slides. He puts defenders in no win situations. Personality id knock his block off And take the 15 yards 2-4 times in a row and see how committed he stays to it or if I could knock his ass out the game. It’s total garbage but any great player gonna manipulate these rules if he could mahomes just uniquely clever and talented enough to really exploit them.
 
UPDATE

With 2, 2ND TIER teams in the Super Bowl, I can update the Tier results for the last 22 years.

Remaining Teams
2ND TIER - 2

NFC
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2

AFC
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L22 YEARS (2003-2025)
1ST TIER 29/44, 66%
2ND TIER 11/44, 25%
3RD TIER 4/44, 9%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/44, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L22 YEARS (2003-2025)
1ST TIER 16/22, 73%
2ND TIER 4/22, 18%
3RD TIER 2/22, 9%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/22, 0%
 
I wish I had a better understanding for what qualifies them for which tier cause kc and Philly were pretty much the best team in each respective conf all year. Who was tier one above them?
 
2daBank said:
I wish I had a better understanding for what qualifies them for which tier cause kc and Philly were pretty much the best team in each respective conf all year. Who was tier one above them?
Click to expand...
That's very easy to say since they are the last 2 teams standing. I thought Detroit was the best team in their conference all season. Also, arguably KC wasn't the best team in their conference all season.

Who was one above them? i've posted the updated tiers all season, every week.
 
Loves2kickass said:
That's very easy to say since they are the last 2 teams standing. I thought Detroit was the best team in their conference all season. Also, arguably KC wasn't the best team in their conference all season.

Who was one above them? i've posted the updated tiers all season, every week.
Click to expand...

I know I’m sorry I havnt had lot of time lately. I think it was very debatable between lions and Philly once lions started losing another starter on defense every week, I thought most ppl coming into playoffs were shying away from lions because the defensive injuries i felt sad for them coming into playoffs cause it just didn’t seem likely they could win by simply out scoring everyone. Sucked cause I was bought in and wanted to be a lions fan coming into year and up until the d starting dropping like flies.

Far as kc I don’t know how they were debatable at all? They only lost one game they trued to win and after a month into season they had been depleted by injuries to their skill spots almost as badly as lions d! The difference was kc guys other than rice all started getting healthy around week 14-16 and you could see the offense progressing after that while it really being 1st time this group of skill guys have played together, they got healthy just early enough, started peaking coming into playoffs, and are the 2x defendijg champs who absolutely upgraded the wr corp over last years team. No disrespect but we just gonna have to strongly disagree kc wasn’t the top of the top tier and will remain there until someone actually knocks them out the playoffs!! Just cause they had to find ways to win close games that wernt pretty while going thru cluster injuries to the skill players (pacheco along with the WRs!) no other team could have withstood that and played .500 ball let alone maintained the 1 seed imo. Was there ever even a point kc wasn’t the odds on favorite to come out the afc? That should pretty much define the top tier shouldn’t it?
 
FINAL SEASON UPDATE

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L22 YEARS (2003-2025)
1ST TIER 29/44, 66%
2ND TIER 11/44, 25%
3RD TIER 4/44, 9%
4TH TIER 0/44, 0%
5TH TIER 0/44, 0%
6TH TIER 0/44, 0%
7TH TIER 0/44, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L22 YEARS (2003-2025)
1ST TIER 16/22, 73%
2ND TIER 4/22, 18%
3RD TIER 2/22, 9%
4TH TIER 0/22, 0%
5TH TIER 0/22, 0%
6TH TIER 0/22, 0%
7TH TIER 0/22, 0%

1ST TIER SUPER BOWL WINNING SEASONS
2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

2ND TIER SUPER BOWL WINNING SEASONS
2009, 2017, 2018, 2025

3RD TIER SUPER BOWL WINNING SEASONS
2004, 2008
 
Without cheating im guessing maybe it was one the Eli giants teams that was tier 3 in ‘08? Although my memory sucks I know one of them was somewhere between ‘08’and ‘10 im
Pretty sure. Just can’t figure out why both Eli teams wernt year 3 unless they won in ‘04 but think that was to early to be them. Gotta think little more bout 04. lol.

So this matchup of tier 2’s fairly rare huh? Although lll die on my sword kc top of tier 1: lol
 
2daBank said:
Without cheating im guessing maybe it was one the Eli giants teams that was tier 3 in ‘08? Although my memory sucks I know one of them was somewhere between ‘08’and ‘10 im
Pretty sure. Just can’t figure out why both Eli teams wernt year 3 unless they won in ‘04 but think that was to early to be them. Gotta think little more bout 04. lol.

So this matchup of tier 2’s fairly rare huh? Although lll die on my sword kc top of tier 1: lol
Click to expand...
Yes, 2008 was Eli.
5NYG (3rd Tier)
1NE (1st Tier)

2004 was
1NE (3rd Tier)
3CAR (2nd Tier)
 
2daBank said:
Without cheating im guessing maybe it was one the Eli giants teams that was tier 3 in ‘08? Although my memory sucks I know one of them was somewhere between ‘08’and ‘10 im
Pretty sure. Just can’t figure out why both Eli teams wernt year 3 unless they won in ‘04 but think that was to early to be them. Gotta think little more bout 04. lol.

So this matchup of tier 2’s fairly rare huh? Although lll die on my sword kc top of tier 1: lol
Click to expand...
Yes, 2, 2nd Tier teams is pretty rare. It's happened twice since 2003 season.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Yes, 2008 was Eli.
5NYG (3rd Tier)
1NE (1st Tier)

2004 was
1NE (3rd Tier)
3CAR (2nd Tier)
Click to expand...

Damn it crazy pats were on 1st 3 sb in 4-5 year span run 21-25 years ago. I remember betting panthers then eagles both cashing with the points, the pats won them all by fgs I believe starting w the rams greatest show fuck job where pats just mugged all the wrs at every snap and fucked that timing passing game all up until rams oc pulled head out his ass and started getting Faulk the ball, to little to late and Brady had his 1st of many last minute drives for 40-50 yard fgs to win them all, so annoying until embracing the fact they were gonna cash in playoffs them win it all but lose ats in sb! I kinda hated them but cashed a lot!!! The only one they got me was the crazy comeback falcons one where they not only came back from down 25 but managed to fucking cover a 4-5 point spread in ot where all they needed was damn fg to win back then!!! But when they played legion of boom I hammered Pats Ml, forget what spread even was just knew pats win, that turned out to be an emotional roller coaster from hell. Pats had to come from way back in 4th, took Lead very late then settle got down n inside 3 super fast, thought I had won then thought i was fuvked, then Pete bailed me out letting Russ throw instead of just run lynch and crush me!! Good times. Lol., I was locked up when Eli beat the undefeated Moss pats, I woulda lost that one; lol. Actually did lose some smokes and little money thought I was hustling cats getying pats and not giving them close to the spread that I think was like -13 or something., That backfired: we couldn’t even watch it we had direct tv but couldn’t get local stations so listened on radio. Lol
 
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