Super Bowl Champion

Loves2kickass said:
@HUNT look at comment #292 & #293. I'm very confident with my -122 bet on Minnesota Vikings v the Los Angeles Rams that i posted well before the venue change. It's all about the L21 seasons of results. IF I lose I fade Rams again.

If Minnesota does lose then you may want to bet the AFC to win the Super Bowl (Balt/Buf).
Click to expand...
Crazy how we take completely different paths to the same results. I don't know when I posted that prediction of Ravens/Lions SB in that thread but it was insanely early and I still don't think I'd change a thing. If Vikes make it they won't have a home game to do it although they really got lucky with this one as far as venue.
 
All of these threads are so micro I'll just post the macro in here if you're good with it

Lions/Washington is a ratings love
Ravens/Bills is just an awesome game as a fan, not necessarily a gambler
KC/Houston literally doesn't need to exist regardless of who wins
Vikings/Rams at Philly will make fan bases excited but nothing beyond that
 
Loves2kickass said:
Incorrect. If I thought that I would have bet Minnesota to win the NFC. Philly and Det could get to the Bowl and lose, no?

If Minnesota wins the Championship it will be defeating Buffalo, not Baltimore. That's based on L21 seasons of results.

It will become more clearer as the playoffs progress. As I mentioned as those 3 teams mentioned get eliminated the possibilities decease/odds and the predicted outcome increases.
Click to expand...

Man I give up. Good luck bro.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Here's another clue to the last piece of the puzzle. Below are the Tiers remaining at the completion of the WC round the last few years. I can post the 17 prior seasons but the pattern remains the same. Maybe this season will be the outlier.

2024
5TB 2ND TIER
3DET 1ST TIER
7GB 2ND TIER
1SF 1ST TIER
3KC 1ST TIER
2BUF 1ST TIER
4HOU 2ND TIER
1BAL 1ST TIER

2023
3CIN 1ST TIER
2BUF 1ST TIER
4JAC 2ND TIER
1KC 1ST TIER
5DAL 3RD TIER
2SF 2ND TIER
6NYG 3RD TIER
1PHI 1ST TIER

2022
6SF 3RD TIER
1GB 2ND TIER
4LAR 1ST TIER
2TB 2ND TIER
4CIN 2ND TIER
1TEN 3RD TIER
3BUF 1ST TIER
2KC 2ND TIER

2021
5BAL 1ST TIER
2BUF 2ND TIER
6CLE 3RD TIER
1KC 1ST TIER
5TB 1ST TIER
2NO 2ND TIER
6LAR 2ND TIER
1GB 3RD TIER
Click to expand...
L21 seasons a 4th-7th Tier team hasn't played in the divisional round.

Minnesota Vikings 2ND TIER
Los Angeles Rams 6TH TIER
 
KJ said:
All of these threads are so micro I'll just post the macro in here if you're good with it

Lions/Washington is a ratings love
Ravens/Bills is just an awesome game as a fan, not necessarily a gambler
KC/Houston literally doesn't need to exist regardless of who wins
Vikings/Rams at Philly will make fan bases excited but nothing beyond that
Click to expand...

Lions vs Vikings/Rams would have had the best ratings along with Buffalo/Baltimore
 
Loves2kickass said:
FINAL UPDATE

*Tier's finalized prior to the start of week 5*
*ELIMINATED teams WILL NOT participate in SB*

 NFC
DETROIT LIONS (1ST TIER) NFC #1
----------
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2ND TIER) NFC #3
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2ND TIER) NFC #5
GREEN BAY PACKERS (2ND TIER) NFC #7
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #6
----------
LOS ANGELES RAMS (6TH TIER) NFC #4 ELIMINATED

AFC
BALTIMORE RAVENS (1ST TIER) AFC #3
----------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2ND TIER) AFC #6
----------
HOUSTON TEXANS (3RD TIER) AFC #4
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (3RD TIER) AFC #5
DENVER BRONCOS (3RD TIER) AFC #7
----------

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
Click to expand...
Trying to understand, not sure if I’m missing something or just your feel once the teams are in top 2 tiers. But If we’re on the math side of it, wouldn’t you be taking Detroit and Baltimore . Rather than minni baltimore and Buffalo. Taking 2/3 tier 2 teams which only 3/21 have won sb and 9/42 were sb participants.
 
pb278817 said:
Trying to understand, not sure if I’m missing something or just your feel once the teams are in top 2 tiers. But If we’re on the math side of it, wouldn’t you be taking Detroit and Baltimore . Rather than minni baltimore and Buffalo. Taking 2/3 tier 2 teams which only 3/21 have won sb and 9/42 were sb participants.
Click to expand...
Usually there's more than just 2, 1st Tier teams in the playoffs. What I believe is Baltimore is the one 1st Tier team of the two that may win the Bowl so i added 2, 2nd Tier teams that i feel have a legit shot. One, of course, will be eliminated next week.
 
Update at conclusion of Wild Card Round
1ST TIER - 2
2ND TIER - 3
3RD TIER - 2
6TH TIER - 1
The last 1st Tier team to win SB - 2024 (KC)
The last 2nd Tier team to win SB - 2018 (PHI)
The last 3rd Tier team to win SB - 2008 (NYG)

NFC
DETROIT LIONS (1ST TIER) NFC #1
----------
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #6
----------
LOS ANGELES RAMS (6TH TIER) NFC #4 ELIMINATED

AFC
BALTIMORE RAVENS (1ST TIER) AFC #3
----------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
----------
HOUSTON TEXANS (3RD TIER) AFC #4
----------

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
It's more likely than not only 1st & 2nd Tier teams remain after the Divisional round. Washington-3rd Tier, Los Angeles-6th Tier and Houston-3rd Tier all have uphill battles this weekend.

I'll continue to play against the Rams until they lose. I was hoping the Rams would have been eliminated in the Wild Card round but here we are.

After this week only one of my top 3 teams will remain, either Baltimore-1st Tier or Buffalo-2nd Tier, but the other 3 strong contenders i mentioned are still alive and have a great shot as well (Detroit-1st Tier, Kansas City-2nd Tier, Philadelphia-2nd Tier).
 
Loves2kickass said:
L21 seasons a 4th-7th Tier team hasn't played in the divisional round.

Minnesota Vikings 2ND TIER
Los Angeles Rams 6TH TIER
Click to expand...
This error/typo was brought to my attention in a different thread. This should have read "L21 seasons a 4th-7th Tier team hasn't played in the Super Bowl" as I've stated multiple times (every weekly update) in this thread. My mistake i apologize for that.
 
1st Tier teams have played in 17 of the last 21 Super Bowls and have won 16 of them. The only loss was in 2008 against the 3rd Tier NYG defeating NE. (BAL, DET)

In the other 5 Super Bowl games the 2nd Tier (KC, PHI, BUF) has won 3 and the 3rd Tier (WAS, HOU) has won 2.

1st Tier teams have matched up in the Super bowl 12 times in the last 21 seasons, about 57% during that time. (DET, BAL)

Never, in the last 21 seasons has a 4th Tier - 7th Tier team won or played in the Super Bowl. (LAR)
 
Divisional round favorites are 22-2 SU and 17-7 ATS if they lost last year's conference championship game since 1978.

This week the 2 remaining 1st Tier teams, Detroit -9 and Baltimore -1.5 (currently) would qualify as they both lost in their respective championship games last season.
 
UPDATE

Remaining Teams
1ST TIER - 2
2ND TIER - 3
3RD TIER - 1
6TH TIER - 1

NFC
DETROIT LIONS (1ST TIER) NFC #1
----------
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #6
----------
LOS ANGELES RAMS (6TH TIER) NFC #4 ELIMINATED

AFC
BALTIMORE RAVENS (1ST TIER) AFC #3
----------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
----------

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
UPDATE

Remaining Teams
1ST TIER - 1
2ND TIER - 3
3RD TIER - 1
6TH TIER - 1

NFC
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #6
----------
LOS ANGELES RAMS (6TH TIER) NFC #4 ELIMINATED

AFC
BALTIMORE RAVENS (1ST TIER) AFC #3
----------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
----------

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
Im going with the Ravens tomorrow. Nothing big but decent sized wager. Their defense is clicking at the right time...Zay is a loss for sure but they have enough playmakers, not worried about that this week. Lamar in the cold is a concern too but he needs to get rid of that narrative or he never will.
 
Last edited:
HUNT said:
Share the same one at this point in the season. My only concern is the Chiefs 12th man, the refs. It's unbearable.
Click to expand...

Refs missing 3 fgs, leaving Kelce open all day and getting sacked 8 times def helped.

The first roughing has been called like that for years. The crown hit the face mask. It’s roughing. Second one as a ball carrier I woulda preferred not called.

This site is like 98 percent “fuck your feelings” maga so I’m surprised everyone gets so upset about the officiating when the actual data does not support this. Josh Allen gets significantly more roughing and PI and nary a whisper here.

Chiefs will continue to be one of the more penalized teams in the league and everyone will still cry outrage just like we all did for the Patriots for years. Someone just needs to beat them. Then everyone can be happy again.

Nothing against u specifically hunt it’s just hearing this every day is tiresome. Officiating is bad. We are on tv every week. Ur gonna see bad calls with us more than most teams.

Go Rams/Ravens parlay today
 
pb278817 said:
how many years (if any) has there been no tier one team in sb?
Click to expand...
2024
3KC (1st Tier)
1SF (1st Tier)

2023
1KC (1st Tier)
1PHI (1st Tier)

2022
4LAR (1st Tier)
4CIN (2nd Tier)

2021
5TB (1st Tier)
1KC (1st Tier)

2020
2KC (1st Tier)
1SF (2nd Tier)

2019
2NE (1st Tier)
2LAR (1st Tier)

2018
1PHI (2nd Tier)
1NE (2nd Tier)

2017
1NE (2nd Tier)
2ATL (3rd Tier)

2016
1DEN (1st Tier)
1CAR (1st Tier)

2015
1NE (1st Tier)
1SEA (1st Tier)

2014
1SEA (1st Tier)
1DEN (1st Tier)

2013
4BAL (1st Tier)
2SF (1st Tier)

2012
4NYG (1st Tier)
1NE (1st Tier)

2011
6GB (1st Tier)
2PIT (3rd Tier)

2010
1NO (1st Tier)
1IND (1st Tier)

2009
2PIT (2nd Tier)
4AZ (2nd Tier)

2008
5NYG (3rd Tier)
1NE (1st Tier)

2007
3IND (1st Tier)
1CHI (1st Tier)

2006
6PIT (1st Tier)
1SEA (2nd Tier)

2005
2NE (1st Tier)
1PHI (1st Tier)

2004
1NE (3rd Tier)
3CAR (2nd Tier)
 
Capaholic said:
Refs missing 3 fgs, leaving Kelce open all day and getting sacked 8 times def helped.

The first roughing has been called like that for years. The crown hit the face mask. It’s roughing. Second one as a ball carrier I woulda preferred not called.

This site is like 98 percent “fuck your feelings” maga so I’m surprised everyone gets so upset about the officiating when the actual data does not support this. Josh Allen gets significantly more roughing and PI and nary a whisper here.

Chiefs will continue to be one of the more penalized teams in the league and everyone will still cry outrage just like we all did for the Patriots for years. Someone just needs to beat them. Then everyone can be happy again.

Nothing against u specifically hunt it’s just hearing this every day is tiresome. Officiating is bad. We are on tv every week. Ur gonna see bad calls with us more than most teams.

Go Rams/Ravens parlay today
Click to expand...

I'm sick of your chiefs cap, no offense to you at all and none taken from me. It's not really the calls, it's when they happen. It's frankly predictable when a flag will get thrown to favor them. 3rd downs, red zone, you name it. It goes their way a lot it seems like.
 
Last edited:
Loves2kickass said:
2024
3KC (1st Tier)
1SF (1st Tier)

2023
1KC (1st Tier)
1PHI (1st Tier)

2022
4LAR (1st Tier)
4CIN (2nd Tier)

2021
5TB (1st Tier)
1KC (1st Tier)

2020
2KC (1st Tier)
1SF (2nd Tier)

2019
2NE (1st Tier)
2LAR (1st Tier)

2018
1PHI (2nd Tier)
1NE (2nd Tier)

2017
1NE (2nd Tier)
2ATL (3rd Tier)

2016
1DEN (1st Tier)
1CAR (1st Tier)

2015
1NE (1st Tier)
1SEA (1st Tier)

2014
1SEA (1st Tier)
1DEN (1st Tier)

2013
4BAL (1st Tier)
2SF (1st Tier)

2012
4NYG (1st Tier)
1NE (1st Tier)

2011
6GB (1st Tier)
2PIT (3rd Tier)

2010
1NO (1st Tier)
1IND (1st Tier)

2009
2PIT (2nd Tier)
4AZ (2nd Tier)

2008
5NYG (3rd Tier)
1NE (1st Tier)

2007
3IND (1st Tier)
1CHI (1st Tier)

2006
6PIT (1st Tier)
1SEA (2nd Tier)

2005
2NE (1st Tier)
1PHI (1st Tier)

2004
1NE (3rd Tier)
3CAR (2nd Tier)
Click to expand...

In most cases, it seems tier 1 makes it at the very least which is what your data already shows.
 
Rams looking like they'll be a tough out. I'm fading them again on the Phi ML so it would be nice to get the Rams fade out of the way. If not, at least I'll get plus money on the Skins but I don't want to have to make that bet lol.
 
This is setting up to be a Super Bowl of BAL/BUF defeating WAS/PHI. Each game result changes the dynamic. With the remaining teams the previous results show BAL defeating PHI as the highest odds of occurring. If the Rams pull out a run to the Championship it would be the first time that would have happened since I started tracking the Tier system in 2004.
 
UPDATE

With the Rams loss, the trend continues with 4th Tier - 7th Tier teams not participating and/or winning the Super Bowl the
last 22 seasons.

Remaining Teams
1ST TIER - 1
2ND TIER - 3
3RD TIER - 1

NFC
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2ND TIER) NFC #2
----------
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3RD TIER) NFC #6

AFC
BALTIMORE RAVENS (1ST TIER) AFC #3
----------
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2ND TIER) AFC #1
BUFFALO BILLS (2ND TIER) AFC #2
----------

SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANT L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 29/42, 69%
2ND TIER 9/42, 21%
3RD TIER 4/42, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/42, 0%

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION L21 YEARS
1ST TIER 16/21, 76%
2ND TIER 3/21, 14%
3RD TIER 2/21, 10%
4TH-7TH TIER 0/21, 0%
 
The Tiers show odds are the Ravens should advance this week, next week and hold the Lombardi but there's still that chance of a 2nd Tier or 3rd Tier team flipping the script. We shall see.
 
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