Super Bowl Champion

Added Baltimore & Buffalo. Final Update tomorrow at conclusion of week 4.

1ST TIER (SB Champ 16/21, 76%, L 21 yrs)
San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens

2ND TIER (SB Champ 3/21, 14%, L 21 yrs)
Buffalo Bills
Pittsburgh Steelers
Minnesota Vikings
Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Jets
Green Bay Packers

3RD TIER (SB Champ 2/21, 10%, L 21 yrs)
Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos
Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys

4TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Atlanta Falcons
Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals
Las Vegas Raiders

5TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New York Giants
Cleveland Browns
Carolina Panthers

6TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams

7TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Jacksonville Jaguars
 
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HUNT said:
They have all the value though. If they win tomorrow their odds will drop like a rock. They are currently well over +3500 most shops.
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They should be +35000. Barely beating the Pats and beating Skylar Thompson. This is the worst 3-0 team since the 2024 Steelers!
 
HUNT said:
They have all the value though. If they win tomorrow their odds will drop like a rock. They are currently well over +3500 most shops.
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I'd like to see Seattle lose by single digits so the number doesn't drop that much, if at all, and it will push Detroit down to Tier 2. That would put me on BAL vs SEA/SF.

At Circa currently Seattle +3000 & Detroit +1100 to win SB. I don't think Seattle would win it though. Baltimore i think is the top team right now.

KC SB odds are a joke at +500. I wouldn't donate a dollar to that. There's a few other teams that their odds are way to low. Houston +1300? Dallas +2500? Come on 😆
 
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Loves2kickass said:
I'd like to see Seattle lose by single digits so the number doesn't drop that much, if at all, and it will push Detroit down to Tier 2. That would put me on BAL vs SEA/SF.

At Circa currently Seattle +3000 & Detroit +1100 to win SB. I don't think Seattle would win it though. Baltimore i think is the top team right now.

KC SB odds are a joke at +500. I wouldn't donate a dollar to that. There's a few other teams that their odds are way to low. Houston +1300? Dallas +2500? Come on 😆
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Seattle has an innovative offense. Ryan Grabb is a mastermind like Ben Johnson. If Seattle wins today they will be 4-0 and move to the 15-1 range. They are down some olineman so that hurts, but they'll be healthy soon. KC odds aren't a joke man. Best defense and one of the best olines in football with God at QB and the money maker Swift in the box. More importantly, they have the refs. Every single important play a flag goes their way. They are part of the script for the 3 peat. That's just how these movies work unfortunately.
 
HUNT said:
Seattle has an innovative offense. Ryan Grabb is a mastermind like Ben Johnson. If Seattle wins today they will be 4-0 and move to the 15-1 range. They are down some olineman so that hurts, but they'll be healthy soon. KC odds aren't a joke man. Best defense and one of the best olines in football with God at QB and the money maker Swift in the box. More importantly, they have the refs. Every single important play a flag goes their way. They are part of the script for the 3 peat. That's just how these movies work unfortunately.
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Yeah, when you're being supported by the agenda and every play that's a coin flip goes your way - you might as well be -500
 
HUNT said:
Seattle has an innovative offense. Ryan Grabb is a mastermind like Ben Johnson. If Seattle wins today they will be 4-0 and move to the 15-1 range. They are down some olineman so that hurts, but they'll be healthy soon. KC odds aren't a joke man. Best defense and one of the best olines in football with God at QB and the money maker Swift in the box. More importantly, they have the refs. Every single important play a flag goes their way. They are part of the script for the 3 peat. That's just how these movies work unfortunately.
Click to expand...
I grabbed Sea at 35-1 a few days ago. I'm good there.

The KC line is a joke at 5-1 with the team they currently have.
 
Believe it or not, Miami can actually get to the 1ST TIER tonight. I didn't mention them because it's a pretty high mountain to climb.

● Close as favorite
● Win by 10 or more
● Score 47 or more points
● Allow less than 28 points
 
Loves2kickass said:
Believe it or not, Miami can actually get to the 1ST TIER tonight. I didn't mention them because it's a pretty high mountain to climb.

● Close as favorite
● Win by 10 or more
● Score 47 or more points
● Allow less than 28 points
Click to expand...

They could get 48 if they had tua.
 
HUNT said:
Took them +3300 today based on several factors. This thread helps. Watch out for the upset though tonight. Wouldn't be shocked.
Click to expand...
Seattle is great value at this point. Even better value if they qualify as Tier 1 after tonight. They're definitely worth a shot in the dark.
 
FINAL TIERS. I will double check all teams to make sure of no errors. Each Tier is in no particular order, except by conference.

1ST TIER (SB Champ 16/21, 76%, L 21 yrs)
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Detroit Lions

2ND TIER (SB Champ 3/21, 14%, L 21 yrs)
Buffalo Bills
Pittsburgh Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs
New York Jets
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3RD TIER (SB Champ 2/21, 10%, L 21 yrs)
Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos
Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys

4TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Las Vegas Raiders
Atlanta Falcons
Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals

5TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans
New York Giants
Carolina Panthers

6TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Rams

7TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Jacksonville Jaguars
 
That's a wild first tier. I still feel good about Seattle bet even after tonight. They are legit. They would have probably beaten any other team tonight. Goff was that good tonight.
 
After I double check all teams I'll be adding some additional past info such as playoff seed info with each Tier and other interesting details. The goal is to make the best informed decision for a futures wager(s)
 
HUNT said:
Watch KC get Davante Adams now.
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I am not sure if I posted this on the forum, but someone said yesterday that with Tua not back for a while that Miami season is basically over. They are terrible in the late stages anyways -- Mike Mc teams always struggle late.

Anyways. Cheetah is 32 and why not match them back up?

Now, with the Adams news today, this makes more sense.

Typical move of a long-term championship team.

Ugh.
 
B.A.R. said:
I am not sure if I posted this on the forum, but someone said yesterday that with Tua not back for a while that Miami season is basically over. They are terrible in the late stages anyways -- Mike Mc teams always struggle late.

Anyways. Cheetah is 32 and why not match them back up?

Now, with the Adams news today, this makes more sense.

Typical move of a long-term championship team.

Ugh.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't want a guy like Tyreek on my team but it makes sense purely on a talent standpoint. I'd be surprised if the Raiders trade Adams to KC and help a hated rival especially when the Jets will sell the farm to try to get that last wild card spot and save the coaches job.
 
Chicken Little said:
I wouldn't want a guy like Tyreek on my team but it makes sense purely on a talent standpoint. I'd be surprised if the Raiders trade Adams to KC and help a hated rival especially when the Jets will sell the farm to try to get that last wild card spot and save the coaches job.
Click to expand...
Raiders want a 2nd and "other considerations"
 
FINAL SUPER BOWL TIERS. All figures double checked with one change. The New York Giants moved from 5th Tier to 6th Tier.

1ST TIER (SB Champ 16/21, 76%, L 21 yrs)
San Francisco 49ers +595
Baltimore Ravens +675
Detroit Lions +1050
Seattle Seahawks +3500

2ND TIER (SB Champ 3/21, 14%, L 21 yrs)
Kansas City Chiefs +500
Buffalo Bills +1000
Minnesota Vikings +1400
Green Bay Packers +1600
Philadelphia Eagles +1600
New York Jets +2900
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3600
New Orleans Saints +4500
Pittsburgh Steelers +5500

3RD TIER (SB Champ 2/21, 10%, L 21 yrs)
Houston Texans +1300
Dallas Cowboys +2600
Cincinnati Bengals +3200
Washington Commanders +3900
Los Angeles Chargers +6300
Indianapolis Colts +9000
Denver Broncos +12500

4TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Las Vegas Raiders
Atlanta Falcons
Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals

5TH TIER (SB Champ 0/21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers

6TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Rams
New York Giants

7TH TIER (SB Champ 0-21, 0%, L 21 yrs)
Jacksonville Jaguars
 
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Listed below are the seeds of each 1st Tier Super Bowl winning team L21 yrs. The seeds are spread out from #1 to #6 in 16 of the 21 1st Tier Super Bowl winners with half of them either a #1 or #2 seed. A 1st Tier team has played in 17 Super Bowl games and won 16 of them. The only loss was the 3rd Tier, DD underdog NYG defeating NE in 2008.

1ST TIER
#1 seed 5/16, 31%
#2 seed 3/16, 19%
#3 seed 2/16, 13%
#4 seed 3/16, 19%
#5 seed 1/16, 6%
#6 seed 2/16, 13%

The 3 occurrences L21 yrs that a 2nd Tier qualifier won the Super Bowl were either a #1 seed or #2 seed. As previously mentioned, a 2nd Tier team has matched up against a 1st Tier team 3 times and lost all 3 Super Bowls.

2ND TIER
#1 seed 2/3, 67%
#2 seed 1/3, 33%

Below are the seeds of the 2, 3rd Tier Super Bowl winners. Those wins occurred in 2004 (#1 seed NE) & 2008 (#3 seed NYG).

3RD TIER
#1 seed 1/2
#5 seed 1/2

Finally, listed below is how many times each Tier has participated in the Super Bowl L21 yrs. 1st Tier teams have participated in the Super Bowl 69% of the time. 12/21 Super Bowl games involved both teams being in the 1st Tier. What also stands out is no Super Bowl participants was a 4th Tier, 5th Tier, 6th Tier or 7th Tier team. The teams in the 4th Tier-7th Tier would be a great fade if they were to participate in either the NFC or AFC Championship game.

29/42, 69% SB participants 1ST TIER
9/42, 21% SB participants 2ND TIER
4/42, 10% SB participants 3RD TIER
0/42, 0% SB Participants 4TH -7TH TIERS
 
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OVERVALUED TEAMS
Houston Texans
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers

UNDERVALUED TEAMS
Pittsburgh Steelers
New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Solely based on the Tiers and current SB odds, the Houston Texans stand out to me as the most overvalued team at +1300 and the Pittsburgh Steelers stand out to me as the most undervalued team at +5500. There's also still real good value with the Seattle Seahawks.
 
HUNT said:
I know people are going to laugh at me but the Rams when healthy can cause a lot of problems if they get in playoffs.
Click to expand...

That loss was huge for NFC today. They can indeed be dangerous but likely will be too far out.

Seattle is frauds.

9ers choke artists but a lot went into that.

9ers even tho a loss are in better position if they can win Thursday.
 
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