Sunday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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Staff member
Jul 7 Sun 2024

01:35 PM
951St. Louis CardinalsK. Gibson -R-1½
+128		-123O 9
-110
952Washington NationalsD. Herz -L+1 Markets+1½
-148		+113U 9
-110
01:35 PM
953Philadelphia PhilliesM. Mercado -R+1½
-142		+156O 8½
-110
954Atlanta BravesR. Lopez -R+1 Markets-1½
+122		-170U 8½
-110
01:40 PM
971San Francisco GiantsH. Birdsong -R+1½
-180		+116O 8½
-125
972Cleveland GuardiansC. Carrasco -R+1 Markets-1½
+160		-126U 8½
+105
01:40 PM
973Detroit TigersT. Skubal -L-1½
+120		-139O 8½
+105
974Cincinnati RedsG. Ashcraft -R+1 Markets+1½
-140		+128U 8½
-125
01:40 PM
975Chicago White SoxJ. Cannon -R+124O 8
-115
976Miami MarlinsE. Cabrera -R+1 Markets-135U 8
-105
02:10 PM
963Houston AstrosS. Arrighetti -R+1½
-190		+108O 9
-105
964Minnesota TwinsS. Woods Richardson -R+1 Markets-1½
+165		-118U 9
-115
02:20 PM
977Los Angeles AngelsJ. Soriano -R+126
978Chicago CubsH. Wesneski -R+1 Markets-137
02:35 PM
965Tampa Bay RaysZ. Littell -R+1½
-185		+120O 8
+105
966Texas RangersN. Eovaldi -R+1 Markets-1½
+165		-130U 8
-125
03:10 PM
979Kansas City RoyalsB. Singer -R-1½
-102		-150O 10½
-105
980Colorado RockiesR. Feltner -R+1 Markets+1½
-118		+138U 10½
-115
04:07 PM
967Baltimore OriolesG. Rodriguez -R-1½
-110		-185O 8½
+100
968Oakland AthleticsM. Spence -R+1 Markets+1½
-110		+169U 8½
-120
04:10 PM
957Arizona DiamondbacksR. Nelson -R+1½
-153		+142O 8
-110
958San Diego PadresD. Cease -R+1 Markets-1½
+133		-155U 8
-110
04:10 PM
959Milwaukee BrewersD. Keuchel -L+150O 9½
-120
960Los Angeles DodgersJ. Wrobleski -L+1 Markets-164U 9½
+100
04:10 PM
969Toronto Blue JaysJ. Berrios -R+1½
-163		+140O 7
-125
970Seattle MarinersG. Kirby -R+1 Markets-1½
+143		-153U 7
+105
07:10 PM
961Boston Red SoxK. Crawford -R+1½
-163		+132O 8½
-108
962New York YankeesL. Gil -R+1 Markets-1½
+143		-144U 8½
-112
 
By the way, glad to see the early lines posted to keep anybody from trying to fudge odds. Keep up the good work Cavs, but I'd throw in legal books if you can, so everybody can see true transparency and not stale numbers. Maybe an update next morning as soon as possible.
 
FadeTheHype said:
By the way, glad to see the early lines posted to keep anybody from trying to fudge odds. Keep up the good work Cavs, but I'd throw in legal books if you can, so everybody can see true transparency and not stale numbers. Maybe an update next morning as soon as possible.
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Everyone can post lines from wherever.

This is a legal book btw ;)
 
FadeTheHype said:
By the way, glad to see the early lines posted to keep anybody from trying to fudge odds. Keep up the good work Cavs, but I'd throw in legal books if you can, so everybody can see true transparency and not stale numbers. Maybe an update next morning as soon as possible.
Click to expand...
No doubt, we always encourage WAN when posting picks.

No one benefits from a play being posted where a number is long gone.

You'll see once football season comes that many of our guys are stalking numbers for the next week and post their #s asap for followers. That's all we can ask.

Nowadays, between many USA books, the offshores and a variety of PPHs one can find value. We've appreciated members noting their books as they post plays. Big help for others.
 
FadeTheHype said:
Can we get onshore and offshore? I'm not hyping up any book in general but getting something up in both worlds keeps the world honest I hope.
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Yes.

We use BOL in first post for a few reasons -- they are a primary sponsor but more importantly one of the most reputable books in the world.

Anyone is welcome to paste anything else in the following posts(link free).
 
B.A.R. said:
Yes.

We use BOL in first post for a few reasons -- they are a primary sponsor but more importantly one of the most reputable books in the world.

Anyone is welcome to paste anything else in the following posts(link free).
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Okie dokie. Was just trying to see if we can weed out stale odds. Not a problem I guess but my opinion is to at least someone post updated odds next morning to give reasonable odds. I think that's fairly reasonable.
 
B.A.R. said:
Time for a Skubal bounce back.

Although, this is the 4 days rest conundrum, right?
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your squad has 4-5 guys with really good numbers vs cutters, ashcraft might have more velo than the avg cutter but it a pitch to contact pitch and teams have had success vs it. There no doubt he will throw a ton of them so it might actually be a good spot for your offense! that was not my 1st reaction but soon as i saw the tigers hitters vs cutters i had to come off any idea of under, the total being bet down also so i might end up on some type of over here, skubal day numbers are good but he been unhittable at night so that wrong rest and wrong time of day to expect his best, very hutter friendly park also.
 
TheDodgers said:
Bad choice on the Phillies yesterday. Was surprised Ranger got rocked
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starting to appear he has either hit a bit a wall or teams maybe starting to figure him out, he hasn't been nearly as dominant the past 3 or so starts. let's face it even tho he been big time in playoffs i think we were all pretty shocked he was looking like the best lefty in the nl for 1st couple months. i don't think he has ever thrown this many innings in half a season either? pretty sure he getting close to the number he threw both the last 2 years so that might have something to do with it also?
 
2daBank said:
your squad has 4-5 guys with really good numbers vs cutters, ashcraft might have more velo than the avg cutter but it a pitch to contact pitch and teams have had success vs it. There no doubt he will throw a ton of them so it might actually be a good spot for your offense! that was not my 1st reaction but soon as i saw the tigers hitters vs cutters i had to come off any idea of under, the total being bet down also so i might end up on some type of over here, skubal day numbers are good but he been unhittable at night so that wrong rest and wrong time of day to expect his best, very hutter friendly park also.
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I can't help but keep coming back to Tigers team total here. We get 27 outs guaranteed, hell maybe both it and the first five team total. Everything about this says massive pitching mismatch.
 
KJ said:
I can't help but keep coming back to Tigers team total here. We get 27 outs guaranteed, hell maybe both it and the first five team total. Everything about this says massive pitching mismatch.
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4.5?
 
KJ said:
I can't help but keep coming back to Tigers team total here. We get 27 outs guaranteed, hell maybe both it and the first five team total. Everything about this says massive pitching mismatch.
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im def considering that. it really just comes down to whether or not i think reds offense can help enough to play game instead of team? im really just digging in now, trying to rush fast i can thru these and find couple gems! lol

im really interested in some type of ff under in cards game, Herz kid been all over the place but majority cards biggest impact players lefties with exception of contreras who back and crushing, goldy and arenado been dog shit and it this kid on i don't see them hitting his stuff!! the question is more gibson, kinda lean to him having a solid game but i do worry nats have stacked 4 tough lefties in top their order. i assume gibson will pitch around some those guys to a extent and get out the bottom the order that all righties. with 4 out of top 5 being lefties tho it could be tricky for him. i dunno, something like ff under, or cards ff tt unde, or nats ff i think, no interest having anything to do with cards pen but i think if Herz throwing well cards offense will struggle, they don't have good numbers vs lhp either.
 
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2daBank said:
im def considering that. it really just comes down to whether or not i think reds offense can help enough to play game instead of team? im really just digging in now, trying to rush fast i can thru these and find couple gems! lol

im really interested in some type of ff under in cards game, Herz kid been all over the place but majority cards biggest impact players lefties with exception of contreras who back and crushing, goldy and arenado been dog shit and it this kid on i don't see them hitting his stuff!! the question is more gibson, kinda lean to him having a solid game but i do worry nats have stacked 4 tough lefties in top their order. i assume gibson will pitch around some those guys to a extent and get out the bottom the order that all righties. with 4 out of top 5 being lefties tho it could be tricky for him. i dunno, something like ff under, or cards ff tt unde, or nats ff i think, no interest having anything to do with cards pen but i think if Herz throwing well cards offense will struggle, they don't have good numbers vs lhp either.
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Really only other game I've looked at, don't think the Nats should be dogs but missed out on + money so might either try it live or toss it
 
KJ said:
Really only other game I've looked at, don't think the Nats should be dogs but missed out on + money so might either try it live or toss it
Click to expand...

i was thinking maybe ff -.5 +124 on nats. really no desire to trust their pen and kinda doubt the herz kid goes much longer than 5 innings.
 
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2daBank said:
i was thinking maybe ff -.5 +124 on nats. really no desire to trust their pen and kinda doubt the herz kid goes much longer than 5 innings.
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I can see that. I don't trust either pen but that actually sucks, it's truly gambling at that point.
 
2 things I like alot and will play. Orioles-1.5 as well as O's Rodriguez over 6.5 ks -133.
I like for Baltimore to bounce back after getting beat up yesterday and that K prop based on the A's being the 2nd worse team in baseball for k's against righties.
 
KJ said:
I can see that. I don't trust either pen but that actually sucks, it's truly gambling at that point.
Click to expand...

true but given the 2 pretty sure id rock w cards, nats pen seems really bad, cards ain't great and the manager a retard which doesn't help! i'd prefer leaving both them out of it, or live betting over once starters pitch counts up! lol
 
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anyone know much bout the giants kid Birdsong? he young, is he a highly thought of prospect? i have no clue what his stuff like, i could see myself looking at kwan h, r, rbi.
 
Going to go out on a limb and this based solely on same stat above. Berrios over 5.5 k's -113. Seattle is the worse team in strikeouts against right handed pitching.
One prop in that game that makes me think that Berrios may get that prop is they have him listed at Ceasars for over 17.5 outs -166. Ton of juice. I am not playing buy if he goes a full 6 I am banking the game goes in his favor.
 
looks like control a big issue for Birdsomg. that doesn't lend itself to over hitter props, hate when my guy ends up being walked 2-3 times and don't get drove in! of course w kwan he gets walked he prob steal a base or 2 and find way to score!
 
TheDodgers said:
Going to go out on a limb and this based solely on same stat above. Berrios over 5.5 k's -113. Seattle is the worse team in strikeouts against right handed pitching.
One prop in that game that makes me think that Berrios may get that prop is they have him listed at Ceasars for over 17.5 outs -166. Ton of juice. I am not playing buy if he goes a full 6 I am banking the game goes in his favor.
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havnt gotten there but i'm always down for a k prop vs seattle. that sure looks like another 1st 5 under in seattle, pissed i wasn't able to bet the 1st 2 of this series! lol.
 
2daBank said:
looks like control a big issue for Birdsomg. that doesn't lend itself to over hitter props, hate when my guy ends up being walked 2-3 times and don't get drove in! of course w kwan he gets walked he prob steal a base or 2 and find way to score!
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Only small article I could find on him in regards to minors.

"Sacramento’s Tuesday may have been devoid of high-profile pitcher prospects, but Richmond’s certainly wasn’t. Tuesday featured the season debut of RHP Hayden Birdsong (No. 9 CPL), who very well could prove to be the best pitching prospect in the organization before long.

Birdsong is returning to the East Coast after making 8 starts with the Squirrels last year, in his first full season ... which started in Low-A. He was one of the great stories on the farm in 2023, and he put himself in position to be a non-roster invitee this year, with sights firmly on a Major League debut.

His first game of the year went a bit smoother than how his campaign ended last year. For as great as Birdsong was in 2023, he struggled to get innings off in Richmond, amassing just 23 in his 8 starts, as he was done in by everything from command issues, to hilariously bad defensive innings that kept him on the mound too long, to weather delays that cut his starts short.


None of that was the case on Tuesday, as Birdsong breezed through 4 innings, giving up just 4 baserunners (2 hits, 1 walk, 1 hit batter), and striking out 6. One of the hits was a home run, which put 2 runs on Birdsong’s ledger, but so it goes. A fantastic start to the year for someone who should be in Sacramento very soon ... and possibly in San Francisco.
 
berrios k:bb ratio been a lot worse on 4 days rest compared to 5 which sucks he on 4 here. he went 6.2 vs seattle early in year only allowing 4 hits and punching 6.
 
TheDodgers said:
Only small article I could find on him in regards to minors.

"Sacramento’s Tuesday may have been devoid of high-profile pitcher prospects, but Richmond’s certainly wasn’t. Tuesday featured the season debut of RHP Hayden Birdsong (No. 9 CPL), who very well could prove to be the best pitching prospect in the organization before long.

Birdsong is returning to the East Coast after making 8 starts with the Squirrels last year, in his first full season ... which started in Low-A. He was one of the great stories on the farm in 2023, and he put himself in position to be a non-roster invitee this year, with sights firmly on a Major League debut.

His first game of the year went a bit smoother than how his campaign ended last year. For as great as Birdsong was in 2023, he struggled to get innings off in Richmond, amassing just 23 in his 8 starts, as he was done in by everything from command issues, to hilariously bad defensive innings that kept him on the mound too long, to weather delays that cut his starts short.


None of that was the case on Tuesday, as Birdsong breezed through 4 innings, giving up just 4 baserunners (2 hits, 1 walk, 1 hit batter), and striking out 6. One of the hits was a home run, which put 2 runs on Birdsong’s ledger, but so it goes. A fantastic start to the year for someone who should be in Sacramento very soon ... and possibly in San Francisco.
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his walk rate all thru minors been pretty redic, combine that with already 3 home runs in 9 innings that could spell trouble vs cle offense. Appears to me stuff not an issue but control is.
 
carrasco ain't my fav pitcher but giants lineup isn't exactly one the tougher in league to pitch to either, then there no doubt in my mind cle pen should pretty much lock it down once they get in game.
 
im really torn between tigers ff tt ov 2.5 +105 or sucking it up and paying the juice on over 3.5 for both? i really feel like refs getting 2 off skubal isn't out the question at all, maybe even 3. -165 is pretty damn steep. ov 4.5 is plus but think at that point i'd just play tigers. over 8 for game maybe involve the pens even tho reds have some nasty relievers. the main part this bet really expecting tigers to continue hitting cutters well. fuck i dunno, im
All over the place on this one. lol
 
eovaldi has freaking dominated rays throughout his career, been nails at home, not so much during day this year but just a few starts and nothing jumps out badly for career. think gotta look at rays ff tt u1.5 or rangers ff -.5
 
Inspekdah said:
Maybe over? Carrasco is a gas can.
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not always and i don't really trust giants lineup. once he gone id expect cle pen to shut giants down also, i dunno, i feel pretty good just playing cle ml at this price and possibly look at kwan/ramerez props?
 
kc offense has been totally shut down at coors, is that really gonna keep up for the entire series? singer has never pitched at coors so not real interested laying juice but kc gotta score some runs before they leave don't they? i know nothing bout this kid pitching for rox today??
 
berrios has been so dominant vs seattle hitters think there a real case to take the plus money on jays 1st 5
 
KJ said:
Is there anything I'm missing to not like that ff under in Seattle?
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Kirby got banged around a bit last outing vs Toronto in April. But other than that, this seems like a good no-score first-inning opp potentially.
 
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peelpub94 said:
Kirby got banged around a bit last outing vs Toronto in April. But other than that, this seems like a good no-score first-inning opp potentially.
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i'm on jays ff, fuckers had their chance to get him in 1st and blew hit, 2 hits a walk and nothing. shit kills me. i have this feeling kirby bout ready for a bad game, figured berrios should cruise thru 5, jays getting +130 just made sense. now that they let kirby off the hook he will prob fucjing cruise now.
 
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