St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Redsox - 2013 World Series Discussion

Lareux said:
I just read that Napoli has a degenerative hip condition, which is the reason he doesn't catch anymore. The Sox are flirting with the idea of Napoli playing 3B though, and he took ground balls there today. Again, it's probably not at all likely that he would play 3B, but it is something they are thinking about.
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:shake: they could really use his bat.
 
Lareux said:
Recent history says that Boston will struggle in an NL park, fwiw...

If that sounds like the sort of thing that could cost the Red Sox — or any American League team — a World Series victory, well, it is. Over the last seven Fall Classics, AL teams are only 5-14 when playing under NL rules.

Of course, the absence of a DH isn't the only reason for that dismal road record. NL teams are aided by home-field advantage and the last at-bat. But the AL's .263 winning percentage is striking — even in a small sample size — and suggests that Major League Baseball would be wise to adopt the DH rule for all World Series games, as it has in the All-Star Game and World Baseball Classic.
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Boston last season went 69-93, so leaning on any negative results they put up away to NL teams in '12 is meaningless given they put up negative results basically everywhere. This season they went 5-3 @NL parks (2 losses by 1 run, 1 loss by 2 runs. The latter loss occurring to the hottest of all streaks put up by any team league wide during the reg. season). In other words, no one took them apart despite their being hampered by missing a usual bat.

Quite what other AL teams stats put up in NL parks have to do with the Red Sox, I'm not sure. Detroit & Texas both licked some very hairy WS balls the last few post seasons (both home & away, didn't matter what venue, they simply sucked in '10 & '12). Nothing they did badly - which sizably contributes to those stats you quoted - means anything about the Red Sox currently. And Boston faced the same situation with Papi when playing Games 3 & 4 at Colorado in the 07 WS.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Boston last season went 69-93, so leaning on any negative results they put up away to NL teams in '12 is meaningless given they put up negative results basically everywhere. This season they went 5-3 @NL parks (2 losses by 1 run, 1 loss by 2 runs. The latter loss occurring to the hottest of all streaks put up by any team league wide during the reg. season). In other words, no one took them apart despite their being hampered by missing a usual bat.

Quite what other AL teams stats put up in NL parks have to do with the Red Sox, I'm not sure. Detroit & Texas both licked some very hairy WS balls the last few post seasons (both home & away, didn't matter what venue, they simply sucked in '10 & '12). Nothing they did badly - which sizably contributes to those stats you quoted - means anything about the Red Sox currently. And Boston faced the same situation with Papi when playing Games 3 & 4 at Colorado in the 07 WS.
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Sorry BC, I just gave some stats. You LOVE giving stats and trends, evidently unless they go against your opinion. I wasn't even giving my opinion, just giving you the stats. No biggie bro, but jeez...

And nothing in my post said anything about the Sox, and their 2012 campaign, in particular, so I'm not sure why you even brought that up. It was solely AL teams in the WS when playing in an NL park. As for the comment about what other AL teams in NL parks have to do with the Sox, the same could be said about your stats of the Sox vs the LAD this year (in your earlier post). What do their stats vs a team they aren't playing now have to do with anything? Tit for tat BC.

:shake:
 
Lareux said:
Sorry BC, I just gave some stats. You LOVE giving stats and trends, evidently unless they go against your opinion.

:shake:
Click to expand...

If you've got relevant stats to post, by all means post em up. Have I posted stats decrying the Cardinals WS chances that pertain to any & all NL teams other than the Cardinals? If so, point them out.

I would've thought my point was a fairly obvious one: what do stats that have nothing to do specifically with the Red Sox (or Cardinals - doesn't matter which team, same observation applies across the board) have to say about their chances here? You posted what I perceived to be irrelevant stats, so I said so. I'd expect the same in turn from any other poster towards anything I posted that they felt to be irrelevant.

As for my Sox @LAD stats, that was in response to the indirect assertion that the Sox struggle to play in NL parks. That assertion wasn't restricted to, the Sox struggle to play at Busch stadium. Had the assertion been the latter, then naturally I'd have been wasting my time posting Sox stats accumulated playing at LA.
 
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BetCrimes1984 said:
If you've got relevant stats to post, by all means post em up. Have I posted stats decrying the Cardinals WS chances that pertain to any & all NL teams other than the Cardinals? If so, point them out.

I would've thought my point was a fairly obvious one: what do stats that have nothing to do specifically with the Red Sox (or Cardinals - doesn't matter which team, same observation applies across the board) have to say about their chances here? You posted what I perceived to be irrelevant stats, so I said so. I'd expect the same in turn from any other poster towards anything I posted that they felt to be irrelevant.

As for my Sox @LAD stats, that was in response to the direct assertion that the Sox struggle to play in NL parks. That assertion wasn't restricted to, the Sox struggle to play at Busch stadium. Had the assertion been the latter, then naturally I'd have been wasting my time posting Sox stats accumulated playing at LA.
Click to expand...

Cool. No one gave the assertion that the Sox struggle in NL parks though, you just posted that.

Just curious too, not really looking for an argument, but when you keep posting the O/U for games in the playoffs....shouldn't those just be restricted now to the Sox and Cards games? Shouldn't matter what other teams did in the playoffs...or am I wrong?
 
As for why I posted about Boston's 2012 season, your opening words read Recent history says that Boston will struggle in an NL park. Recent history includes last season, when Boston did so struggle. Whether you intended that sentence to cover last season or not, it did, and people could read into it that fact. I was covering all bases, as it were.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
As for why I posted about Boston's 2012 season, your opening words read Recent history says that Boston will struggle in an NL park. Recent history includes last season, when Boston did so struggle. Whether you intended that sentence to cover last season or not, it did, and people could read into it that fact. I was covering all bases, as it were.
Click to expand...

I worded that wrong, my bad. Recent history says the AL team (in this case Boston) will struggle in an NL park....is what I should have said.
 
Lareux said:
Cool. No one gave the assertion that the Sox struggle in NL parks though, you just posted that.
Click to expand...

They didn't use those words precisely, but you read the previous page and that's the theme I took from a number of postings. I summarized those postings with that phrasing in the initial response I posted.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
They didn't use those words precisely, but you read the previous page and that's the theme I took from a number of postings. I summarized those postings in the initial response I posted.
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Cool. It's all good man. Your stats are always right. I'm wrong. Carry on.

I did just go back and look though...this was the only post I found that even hinted at your assertion...

Going back to STL, playing without the DH, that should help STL right? Their pitchers know how to lay a bunt down, how to sacrifice a runner over to the next base. I'm sure Boston will practice it with their pitchers but they probably won't be as adept. Also no DH so that'll take one of their big bats out. Papi probably goes to first base so we'll see how he does.

That looks like a question to me, saying that no DH should help St L. If I missed some posts that hinted at Boston struggling, please let me know.
 
I'm only responding to each of your points raised. If you didn't perceive where I was coming from (or you thought I was being harsh), then you're hardly out of place to question what I've said. Hopefully each of my responses has clarified what you've taken issue with.
 
Playoff count after 36 games (incl. Tex/Tby)

Overall
Favs SU: 22-14
Favs RL: 16-20
O/U .. -: 20-14-2

-------

AL Park the Home team's venue
Favs SU: 12-7
Favs RL: 9-10
O/U .. -: 8-9-2

Games @Fenway
Favs SU: 4-3
Favs RL: 3-4
O/U .. -: 4-2-1 (avg. 8.43 rpg - 1 game has totaled less than 6 runs)

-------

NL park the Home team's venue
Favs SU: 10-7
Favs RL: 7-10
O/U .. -: 12-5

Games @Busch
Favs SU: 2-5
Favs RL: 2-5
O/U .. -: 5-2 (avg. 7.00 rpg - 1 game has totaled less than 5 runs)

-------

World Series
Favs SU: 1-2
Favs RL: 1-2
O/U .. -: 2-1
 
Lareux said:
I just read that Napoli has a degenerative hip condition, which is the reason he doesn't catch anymore. The Sox are flirting with the idea of Napoli playing 3B though, and he took ground balls there today. Again, it's probably not at all likely that he would play 3B, but it is something they are thinking about.
Click to expand...

As a StL WS ticket holder I would absolutely love that. No chance he throws a single runner out on a bunt
 
agree GW. I have 1 unit STL +135 and another at +200....thinking about taking the free unit with Boston +200....considering Lynn on the hill tonight.....but still have a feeling STL wins it. Buchholz said himself "the ball isnt coming out of my hand like it was earlier this year".....not very reassuring IMO.

7.5 feels like such a dick tease tonight. The aces pitch at the total is 7...now you have both teams bats heating up, 2 worse pitchers, and both bullpens at least slightly worked at it only goes to 7.5? Fk it Im going over.
 
Pretty tough game. Lynn has been trash on 6 plus. Clay very good. Clay does not seem healthy. Last 3 games clearly very inferior to earlier efforts. Lean over a little but just watching
 
 
Playoff count after 37 games (incl. Tex/Tby). For those unaware, all the following stats are based on opening lines.

Overall
Favs SU: 22-15
Favs RL: 16-21
O/U .. -: 20-15-2

-------

AL Park the Home team's venue
Favs SU: 12-7
Favs RL: 9-10
O/U .. -: 8-9-2

Games @Fenway
Favs SU: 4-3
Favs RL: 3-4
O/U .. -: 4-2-1 (avg. 8.43 rpg - 1 game has totaled less than 6 runs)

-------

NL park the Home team's venue
Favs SU: 10-8
Favs RL: 7-11
O/U .. -: 12-6

Games @Busch
Favs SU: 2-6
Favs RL: 2-6
O/U .. -: 5-3 (avg. 6.87 rpg - 1 game has totaled less than 5 runs)

-------

World Series
Favs SU: 1-3
Favs RL: 1-3
O/U .. -: 2-2

The World Series has continued on from the Championship phase with regards the domination of Dog results (11-5 combined), entirely expected statistically (a regression) after the Favs dominated to an unusually heavy extent (17-4) the Divisional phase of things. As for games @Busch, doesn't seem to matter what round is involved: the Dog just loves barking there.
 
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1381750_10151690937071766_101457359_n.jpg

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game set winner!!

BEST of 3 now!
 
tuck321 said:
Fairly amazing they sent Lynn out in the 6th
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Didn't see anything til the 7th, but to me matheny has outmanaged Farrell so far. What was the issue here? (Besides the 3-run HR result)

I feel like anyone who's been riding the series prices from one game to the next has been killing the books
 
tuck321 said:
Fairly amazing they sent Lynn out in the 6th
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On the back of the way the 5th played out, I understand your point.

Matheny must've subsequently felt justified, thou, when Lynn pretty rapidly had the Sox 2 down w/nobody on. Heading into that 6th he was only at 79 pitches and had surrendered just 2 hits (only 1 in bringing about that bases loaded jam). The fact the Sox had forced decent use of the Cards pen to that point (9.2 IP out of 26 in the 3 previous games) might've played a role. Matheny was seeing a 1-1 tie and a possible long extra innings affair that could mean leaning on his pen again, hence a desire for Lynn to eat up another inning for him. Lynn still got out of that bases loaded jam & looked competent doing it (which obv. kept Matheny's short term belief in him), and then followed with 2 outs on 5 pitches to start the 6th.
 
Keep in mind that based on his results on 6 plus rest Lynn came with handle with Care to start with.
Today Wainwright starts out looking automatic since Lester does not like 4 days rest and has been very average on the road but with this ump
Wainwright 6.92 ERA based on 13 innings away
Lester 1.78 ERA based on 25.1 innings
Tiny bet on Wainwright here
 
After exciting finishes to each of the last two games, The Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals faceoff one more time at Busch Stadium in Game 5 Monday night.

With the series tied 2-2, Game 5 will be crucial for both teams. According to Elias, teams to win Game 5 in a best-of-seven World Series tied 2-2 have won 26 of 40 series.

Although AL teams are 4-12 away from home in the last six World Series, the Red Sox have won five of their last six road World Series games and are 14-4 all-time in postseason Game Fives, winning the last four.

As for the Cardinals, they lost at home Sunday, but have won seven of their last nine home games in the World Series and haven’t lost back-to-back home World Series games since 2004.

Wainwright’s Curve

The Cardinals’ Game 5 starter, Adam Wainwright, struggled in his Game 1 outing. What does Wainwright typically do well that he failed to do in Game 1?

Effectively use his normal out-pitch, the curveball, to put batters away.<!--INLINE MUG-->
i


Wainwright
<!--END INLINE MUG-->

Batters hit .357 off him in Game 1 in two-strike counts, compared to .160 in the regular season and first two rounds of the postseason. Prior to the World Series, Wainwright got ground balls 53 percent of the time he threw the curve, compared to 27 percent in Game 1.

Opponents hit .500 against his curve with two strikes in Game 1, compared to .118 against the pitch prior.

As you can see in the heat map below, he left too many two-strike pitches in the center/upper part of the zone.

mlb_wainwright1_576x324.jpg

<cite>ESPN Stats & Information</cite>




Jon Lester stats to know

<!--INLINE MUG-->
i


Lester
<!--END INLINE MUG-->Lester is looking to join Babe Ruth as the only other Red Sox lefty with three World Series wins. He is 2-0 in 13 1/3 IP with no runs allowed in two World Series starts.

If he continues his shutout streak he would be the second pitcher in MLB history to allow zero runs in each of his first three World Series starts (Christy Mathewson). If he wins, he would be the first pitcher to win his first three World Series starts since Jack Morris and the first lefty since Ron Guidry.

In game 1, Jon Lester dominated the Cardinals with his cutter, finishing the game with eight strikeouts, five of which came off the cutter. But can Lester have the same kind of success with that pitch in game 5?

This postseason the Cardinals are batting .348 with an OPS of .957 and two home runs against the cutter, compared to a .211 BA with an OPS of .586 and seven homers on all other pitches.

Cardinals Postseason RBI

Yadier Molina has 12 career RBI in the World Series, the second-most in Cardinals franchise history behind Lou Brock’s 13.

[h=4]Most Postseason RBI
NL History[/h]
Albert Pujols52
Chipper Jones47
Jim Edmonds42
Carlos Beltran40
Lance Berkman37

<tbody>
</tbody>



Over the years, Cardinals batters have racked up a lot of postseason RBI and Carlos Beltran is climbing the charts. His 40 postseason RBI with the Houston Astros, New York Mets and Cardinals are the fourth-most in NL history. He also has 16 career postseason homeruns, the ninth-most in MLB history.
 
can anyone remember a world series game line that moved 55 cents from the open? pretty heavy cards action tonight...
 
Never seen one move this much but in fairness it was a bogus open....i am a huge red sox fan and guessed stl would be a 20 cent fav or thereabouts....this game is impossible to cap...imo...i'm betting sox because i am a fan and really no other reason...really what else can you do except bet your heart because the game is too close to call....red sox baby....gomes at cleanup....really....
 
big_units said:
can anyone remember a world series game line that moved 55 cents from the open? pretty heavy cards action tonight...
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Pinnacle
[TABLE="class: tableStatic, width: 850"]
<thead> [TR]
[TD] Time [/TD]
[TD] Game [/TD]
[TD] Visitor Line [/TD]
[TD] Home Line [/TD]
[TD] Visitor % [/TD]
[TD] Home % [/TD]
[/TR]
</thead> <tbody> [TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 6:20:15 PM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +118 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -128 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 41% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 59% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 5:59:36 PM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +121 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -131 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 41% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 59% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 5:19:25 PM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +120 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -130 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 43% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 57% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 5:04:11 PM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +119 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -129 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 43% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 57% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 3:41:14 PM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +118 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -128 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 43% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 57% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 3:40:18 PM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +117 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -127 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 43% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 57% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 1:42:23 PM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +115 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -124 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 46% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 54% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 1:42:17 PM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +116 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -126 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 46% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 54% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 1:33:57 PM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +112 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -121 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 46% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 54% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 10:20:02 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +114 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -123 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 42% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 58% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 10:16:56 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +115 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -124 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 42% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 58% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 10:09:02 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +112 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -121 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 44% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 56% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 9:43:44 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +107 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -116 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 43% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 57% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 9:43:28 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +106 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -115 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 43% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 57% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 8:47:37 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +103 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -111 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 40% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 60% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 8:05:27 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +104 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -113 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 42% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 58% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 7:53:20 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +106 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -115 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 39% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 61% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 7:15:20 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +108 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -117 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 42% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 58% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 12:07:15 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +110 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -119 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 34% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 66% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 12:06:51 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +108 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -117 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 34% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 66% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 12:06:14 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +105 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -114 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 34% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 66% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 12:05:38 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +104 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -113 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 34% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 66% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 12:04:44 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +102 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -110 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 34% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 66% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 12:03:20 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +104 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -113 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 34% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 66% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 12:02:13 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +106 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -115 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 34% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 66% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 12:02:07 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +111 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -120 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 34% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 66% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/28/2013 12:01:35 AM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +113 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -122 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 34% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 66% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/27/2013 11:59:52 PM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +115 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -125 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 100% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10/27/2013 11:59:28 PM
[/TD]
[TD] Boston Red Sox - J Lester @ St Louis Cardinals - A Wainwright
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -117 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +108 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 100% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
i dont see where you see a 50 cent line move...

the -117 open at pinnicle was not where it opened at cris and most books
 
[TABLE="class: tableOdds, width: 1114"]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"] 10/28

8:07 PM


959 BOS-J Lester
960 STL-A Wainwright
​
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 21%
79%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 44%
56%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 57%
43%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Had Sox last night...Ive bet two games and won em both....somethin tells me Cards tonight

Im open to listen tho
 
Playoff count after 37 games (incl. Tex/Tby). For those unaware, all the following stats are based on opening lines.

Overall
Favs SU: 22-16
Favs RL: 16-22
O/U .. -: 20-16-2

-------

AL Park the Home team's venue
Favs SU: 12-7
Favs RL: 9-10
O/U .. -: 8-9-2

Games @Fenway
Favs SU: 4-3
Favs RL: 3-4
O/U .. -: 4-2-1 (avg. 8.43 rpg - 1 game has totaled less than 6 runs)

-------

NL park the Home team's venue
Favs SU: 10-9
Favs RL: 7-12
O/U .. -: 12-7

Games @Busch
Favs SU: 2-7
Favs RL: 2-7
O/U .. -: 5-4
-------

World Series
Favs SU: 1-4
Favs RL: 1-4
O/U .. -: 2-3

The domination of Dog results from the Championship phase onwards (now 12-5) continued in Game 5. Game 5's 4 run total broke a streak of 10 consecutive playoff games all totaling at least 6 runs.
 
A lot of the time in this specific situation I'd say a team just coming off the 2 home losses, knowing they've blown a golden chance from 2-1 up to, at minimum, take a 3-2 lead back on the road (let alone wrap up the WS @home) is a team all but cooked psychologically. Being up 3-2 whether you're then heading back home or going on the road, is such an important mental space to be in/advantage to hold just normally, but when you've gotten there by winning 2 straight on the road, imo it becomes a profound edge to hold.

But Wacha has certainly shown enough to suggest he has the stuff to hold down the Sox at a venue where otherwise they've averaged a menacing amount (5.71 rpg) for these playoffs. However, this will obv. be the 2nd time they're seeing him, and it was the 3rd time through the order the 1st time round that led to his troubles. Now they've got a bit of a book on him re actual playing time, so what you saw in game 2 (6 IP/4 hits for 2 ERs) I think will be the best result you'll get from him, not the worst.
Naturally the real question for potential Cards backers is, where are the runs coming from? Wacha could hold the Sox to 2 (or could get yanked after an early run or 2, and Matheny juggles the pen to the degree the Sox are then held to 2 or 3), and not only lose but fail to cover the runline. St Lou's p.s. offensive regression off setting the all time reg. season RISP hitting record just continues on its merry way (0/4 w/RISP in Game 5). As for the guy they face: (1) Lackey already knows what it is to wrap up the final game of a WS, (2) he knows (unlike Wacha) that he doesn't have to be perfect because his team has another game up it's sleeve, and (3) he knows he can shut down the lineup he's facing (1 ER through 6 IP in Game 2 (plus his crunchtime work in Game 4) - the trouble began via that game's 7th inning with Farrell not using his pen precisely as he'd done to that point previously for the entire playoffs, which is not to mention the horrific throw by Breslow which tagged the loss to Lackey's name).

If you could trust St Lou at this point to score even a reasonable amount of runs (3 minimum), then contemplating a pre-game bet on them (vs. waiting for live lines) is something I couldn't argue with (remember, they haven't scored more than 2 runs in any game the Sox haven't committed a horrible throwing error in). My .02 here is what it was before game 2: save any thoughts of backing them for live betting. That advice worked back then (I saw them +275 after Big Papi's 2-run homer), I think the chances are few that you won't again see them at better odds at some point live vs. anything you'll get them for pre-game (the worst scenario for someone who delays their bet would be Cards 1st inning runs: Boston's 1st inning run in Game 5 broke a 20 game drought for road teams coming up empty in the 1st - the first instance since the championship phase began. It's not been a regular occurrence for any teams - home or road - to manage 1st inning runs in these playoffs, for whatever reason. Just seems to be one of those themes that post seasons tend to cough up).
 
cogenman said:
So do the Cards have a shot with Wacha in game 6 or do the Sox close it out?
Click to expand...

For my series bet I was hoping wacha would wrap her up in game 6 so I wouldn't have to be backing Joe Kelly on the road in game 7, but then again I'm not scared of peavy at all if we get there...

wainwright had good numbers but he was disappointing IMO
 
if you're john farrell do you go Clay on 4 days rest to start and bring in Peavy - or do you have a short leash with peavy and let him start and bring in Clay?
 
Neither. I don't think they wanna use Clay more than an inning. Even though the Cards didn't get to him I think everyone saw he was not on form with his stuff.


They'll start Peavy then use Doubront and Workman....IF it gets there ( I think it ends tomorrow)....Cards bats are just SMFH
 
aplous said:
Neither. I don't think they wanna use Clay more than an inning. Even though the Cards didn't get to him I think everyone saw he was not on form with his stuff.


They'll start Peavy then use Doubront and Workman....IF it gets there ( I think it ends tomorrow)....Cards bats are just SMFH
Click to expand...
i also think it ends in 6, but man peavy doesn't scare me one bit
 
So apparently these tickets are going to be the most expensive tickets in ticket history. And Farrell says that his team gets it. They understand how big it is for the city.
 
Sox will approach game six just like any other….will pull out all stops to win….will not save anyone for 7 including doubront who could be the key to winning….farrell could be having his finger sized for a ring right now if he didn't panic in game 3 and pinch hit for drew(i think) and doubront…if doubront hits and continues to pitch the sox win that game…imo….wakka too good right now and not sure if i buy into bc analysis on how he will do based on how he did but i sure hope he's right….i'm more inclined to think that the pressure of win or go home and the atmosphere in fenway will be what undoes him if anything can undo him….i was in fenway for the clemens/pedro game and the pressure got to clemens and he was a savvy veteran (i really don't like the man) but the noise and excitement will accentuate with every run….so cards will serve themselves to get ahead early….hoping that familiarity with pitchers over 5 games and the dh will produce runs so i took over 7 runs at plus money while it was available….i took sox in series before it started -30 and took them again at +95 when they lost game three so no real need to bet side but may bet sox -1.5 at some point….not really worried about peavy (i think over in six so we won't have to worry) but if he pitches he will be fine and as soon as he gets hit they will bring in doubront (who the cards cannot hit) for 2-3 innings and then line up tazawa and uehara because as awesome as beslow was this year he has gotten rattled in this series so i cannot see him throwing one pitch unless we have a 4 run lead and even then i doubt it….go sox
 
Just for shits and giggles.....I'd love to see all these chief fans throw down 2 grand for a nose bleed seat tomorrow only to have them not win it until Thursday. That being said I think they win it tmrw.
 
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