St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Redsox - 2013 World Series Discussion

plus has 5 k's vs Waino and 10 k's L6 games...1 for L26...Stephen Boooooooooo

not a fan of under props myself, but yeah...he has been hitting like he's physically challenged lately. if i were farrel i would actually start middlebrooks at 3rd, move bogaerts to ss and put drew on the bench.
 
not a fan of under props myself, but yeah...he has been hitting like he's physically challenged lately. if i were farrel i would actually start middlebrooks at 3rd, move bogaerts to ss and put drew on the bench.
I like that line of thinking...
 
Playoff count after 34 games (incl. Tex/Tby)

Overall
Favs SU: 22-12
Favs RL: 16-18
O/U .. -: 19-13-2

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AL Park the Home team's venue
Favs SU: 12-6
Favs RL: 9-9
O/U .. -: 8-8-2

Games @Fenway
Favs SU: 4-2
Favs RL: 3-3
O/U .. -: 4-1-1 (avg. 8.83 rpg - 1 game has totaled less than 7 runs)

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NL park the Home team's venue
Favs SU: 10-6
Favs RL: 7-9
O/U .. -: 11-5

Games @Busch
Favs SU: 2-4
Favs RL: 2-4
O/U .. -: 4-2 (avg. 6.67 rpg - 1 game has totaled less than 5 runs)

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World Series
Favs SU: 1-0
Favs RL: 1-0
O/U .. -: 1-0
 
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Total count for the playoffs is now 19-13-2 to Under (as always, I reference the opening line).

Delving into the deeper aspects of this overall mark & it's fair bias towards Overs, there's something quite telling to be found. Of the 34 playoff games played,...

- There's been 8 occasions when the loser suffered being shutout. Those games in which the losing team has managed to score at all have gone 18-6-2 to Over. This is an extraordinary rate of Over results for non-shutout resulted playoff games (2012's playoffs saw such games go 14-12-2 to Over, a 42.85% Under cashing rate vs. the current playoff's 23.07% cashing rate).

- Boston & St Lou had a combined home-games mark of 7-3-2 to Over before the WS began. That the Sox have been strong at Fenway is not a surprise, but that the Cards have managed such a strong Over mark at home despite their overall hitting w/RISP woes is a bit more of a surprise (& a reality heavily underpinned by a strong homer rate when they have scored). So that the 1st WS game went Over shouldn't be too shocking - it's what these 2 teams have been doing at home to a solid degree all playoffs long. Sure esp. good pitchers are present now, but it's not like they've been completely lacking for those previous games.

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Home teams scoring 1st have gone 14-1 SU & Favs scoring 1st have gone 15-1 SU, thus far these playoffs. Home Favs have yet to lose these playoffs when scoring 1st (9-0 SU). On the other side of the coin, Road teams scoring 1st have gone 12-7 SU & Dogs scoring 1st have gone 11-7 SU. Road Dogs are 6-6 SU when scoring 1st in these playoffs.

- The only Fav to lose scoring 1st was a road one: the game in which Ethier dropped what eventually proved to be a game winning catch, and one that also saw LA fail to bring in a 1 out triple in extras when they sent Ellis home on wayyy too short a sac fly. In other words, the Fav did all it could to throw away its scoreboard adv.

- The only home team to lose scoring 1st was Tampa against Boston in Game 4 of their ALDS: Boston trailed 1-0 with 2 out & a runner on 1st in the top of the 7th, before Tampa's relievers cracked. Yet another case of a team trying as hard as it could to throw away it's scoreboard adv.

- No road team has scored a 1st inning run for 17 games.

- No road team has scored a 1st inning run & won SU in an AL park for 14 games.

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Now for the slightly more "convoluted" stats...

- No AL park has witnessed a home team scoring a 4 run total in these playoffs (vs. 4 road teams having managed the same). Since the most common team scores fall into the 3-5 run range, to lack such a manifestation after so many (18) playoff games is unusual.

- No NL park has witnessed a road team scoring a 5 run total in these playoffs (vs. 1 home team having managed the same). To lack such a manifestation after so many (16) playoff games is less unusual than the above stat posted, but still a notable absence.

- Over the last 17 playoffs games, only 1 road team has managed to score more than 4 runs (& that was 5 runs in a SU loss: Det vs. Bos, ALCS G2). It shouldn't be surprising then to learn that the road team has gone 3-11 SU in those 14 games which it didn't manage to shutout their home opponent.
That we've had such a long stretch of games without any road team managing to register any sort of sizable run count in a SU win is pretty much nothing short of remarkable (going back over the final 17 games of last p.s. reveals there were 5 instances of a road team scoring at least 5 runs & winning SU; 13 instances for 2012's playoffs overall, vs. 4 thus far these playoffs). I struggle to see the WS ending with this streak intact (at which point would obv. be north of 20 games in length). It would seem - on the evidence of Game 1 - a likely Sox offensive manifestation in 1 of the 3 games to come in St Lou, but maybe the Cards bats turn it around Thurs. and they end said drought while evening up the WS @1-1.
 
Would love 1-1, but do you mean 19-13-2 to over? I don't get the shutout stat unless you're talking TTs
 
My thoughts for Game 2:

How can a team whose batting has done shit all w/RISP over almost 12 straight playoff games be worth a bet at odds less than +120-125, esp. now it's one leading offensive light through all its lack-of-run-scoring gloom possibly has busted ribs, but even if he plays he's more than likely going to be of dubious value (not to mention the fact they've rushed another injured batter into their lineup because their offense is so desperate for any kind of consistent spark)? Excising the last game of a series, the Cards have averaged 2.80 rpg: for all road games they've averaged 2.33 rpg. Is Game 2 the last WS game possibly to be played? It's obv. a road game.

Added to these offensive woes is a rookie pitcher making only his 2nd ever start against an AL opponent (as a -204 fav he lost to Seattle, a team offensively ranked 21st league wide) & his first AL game (as a reliever or starter) on the road (@Fenway, about the most challenging venue he could pitch at currently along with Colorado. Oops, the latter venue's exactly where he's taken his heaviest hammering at as a starter). A guy who got to look good these playoffs against 2 weak lineups (Pitt is weak, full stop; LA was weak due to injuries), so there's a strong element still of, is he this fantastic for real (21.0 playoff IP for 1 ER against him) or is he a(nything from a) good-to-v.good pitcher who's been made to look fanastic (thereby leading to an overvaluation)? Given the dubious nature of his potential run support, I'd not be willing to get in the way of the League's own offensive juggernaut to find out (Boston has averaged 6.33 rpg in Fenway playoff games thus far) for a mere +108 (Pinny's current line), since chances are he's going to have to be fantastic again for St Lou to come away with the W.

As for the guy he's going against: Lackey has started & won a WS clinching game before (shutting down a lineup including Barroid Bonds), and he recently shut out the Tigers in what turned out to be the crucial Sox starting pitching effort of the ALCS. He has more than enough experience & motivation (over a decade since he tasted a WS win) that I don't see how there could be any set expectation here that this offensively challenged St Lou line up is going to turn it around Thurs. That's not to say they won't or can't, but I see no basis for any healthy expectation it's going to happen.

And I say all of the above without mentioning the obvious horrible nerves St Lou showed in the field when the series was still at 0-0. Now that they have to win down 0-1 (going down 0-2 without HFA is basically a death sentence, and only a fool would believe those guys don't know it), why is their fielding going to suddenly get better under even more pressure? What we saw Weds. was quite a spectacular psychological implosion (I mean, the non-fielding of that pop-up of Drew's was - there's nothing else to say about it but - mind bogglingly pathetic). I'm wondering how you get over the likes of it in 24 hrs, when the situation adds so much more pressure to this next outing (trying to avoid going down 0-2 while knowing you need to compensate - as an already dysfunctional offense - for the either missing or severely compromised crucial piece for them that has been Beltran's bat).

In my book, Saint Louis on every front (pitching, fielding, batting) is a pure gamble Thursday. Only one of those 3 fronts has to resume service as normal from Wednesday, and you'll be challenged to cash their SU bet. But what happens if more than one aspect repeats? Try being terminally challenged to cash that bet. Teams & individuals implode psychologically across all sports. Just last year we witnessed the Tigers never fully recovering from witnessing their ace get shellacked in their WS Game 1 8-3 loss to the Giants (talk about similar scorelines, and almost similar circumstances: Big Papi was just a foot away from doing a good impression of the role the Panda played in beating up on JV). And here, as I mentioned in my page 1 post, you're dealing with a lot of inexperienced/young minds on the biggest baseball stage of all. They fucked up first time up (& not just their younger minds, either), now Boston smells blood. The stage is set that the Sox could wipe their asses with these guys in a bad way in 3 quick games, if Game 2 goes like I think it has a solid chance of going.

Yeah, even aside from the fact I hold a Boston WS future (hedged against my Detroit WS future before Game 6, since I was convinced at the time I placed the latter bet that the AL rep. wouldn't be stopped come WS time), I would not be tempted to bet St Lou SU at their current price. Far too many question marks (that have existed for this team beyond 1 particular game's effort) at this price for my interest to exist (if it was capable of existing) in any pre-game bets. IMO, if you like the Cards then live betting is the beginning, middle & end to how you approach them SU for Game 2. I don't believe Boston will be held to nothing, and the 1st scoring results I posted in another post above tell you that even if St Lou scores 1st as a road dog, that hasn't nearly been as lethal as Home favs scoring 1st. Chances are we'll have a closer game but if there's another blowout, nothing about how Game 1 manifested says to me the odds are that St Lou is in the psychological space to deliver such a blowout before Boston does. Basically you're going to have to see a similar Boston implosion for that to occur. When you're feeling as invincible as the home team is after the Game 1 they had, it's quite a stretch to imagine that happening. Still, time will tell.
 
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How old is Kershaw, and how much love does he get?

Wacha has given up 1 ER in the past 29.2 innings pitched. Most of which were in the playoffs....


So is Beltran playing tonight?
 
Would love 1-1, but do you mean 19-13-2 to over?

19-13-2 to Over means U/O 19-13-2. It's my way of expressing the latter stat.

I don't get the shutout stat unless you're talking TTs

Right, you have a league wide 19-13-2 to Over stat. Now, take out all those games in which the losing team was shutout, and you're left with all the games in which both teams scored at least 1 run each. Those games have gone 18-6-2 to Over. So, when both teams have scored all of 1 run each, your chances of cashing an Under bet have been 23.07% thus far. Basically, if you've been right in thinking both teams score then you've been an idiot (not that'd you'd necessarily know it, of course) for betting Under in these particular playoffs.
 
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I'm interested in a St Loo series play at +205 if Beltran can go. Both teams have been dominant at home, and despite all the momentum Boston has, what Wacha is doing right now can't be disputed and he's got a shot tonight. If they can steal a game tonight, I like their chances of winning 2 out of 3 at home. If they can head back to BOston up 3-2 +205 was a steal.
 
he is 22

he faced shit competition all year long

he is 22

he is facing the best hitting team in maybe the past 5 years? In fenway.

he is 22

2009 angels are better, 2011 rangers are comparable/better

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[TD]OBP[/TD]
[TD]HR[/TD]
[TD]RBIs[/TD]
[TD]Rank in MLB[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Red Sox[/TD]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]0.277[/TD]
[TD]0.349[/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[TD]819[/TD]
[TD]2nd[/TD]
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[TD]0.332[/TD]
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[TD]0.338[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]740[/TD]
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[TD]0.285[/TD]
[TD]0.35[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]841[/TD]
[TD]1st[/TD]
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Took some St Loo at +205... Too good a price to pass on IMO....

Also if the prop on who throws more pitches in the first inning is available and reasonably priced, Wacha throwing more than Lackey worth a look. Boston continuing to let pitch one go, and they will certainly continue to do it to try and elevate this kid's count and get to the pen.
 
what Wacha is doing right now can't be disputed and he's got a shot tonight.

I can dispute it. He had 3 all but free outs in 1 start vs. LA (2 injured batters + a season long .184 pitcher), & 2 in the other (1 injured batter & a .184 season long pitcher). Where are his all but 2-to-3 free outs in Boston's lineup?
 
Come on BC. How about him beating a Pittsburgh team who had scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 7 games before he shut them down?

I've watched his starts and the kid's stuff is filthy. I don't care who the hitters are. I'll give you that he hasn't ever pitched on this kind of a stage before, and Lackey has but you could say the same thing against his previous playoff starts and it didn't seem to bother him.

StL also gets to hit off a righty tonight, where they bat 39 points higher as a team.
 
Agree Wacha is dirty, same windup and delivery for change and fastball, very deceptive and throws strikes....tough pitcher. Tough to fade Boston at home too...toss up.
 
10457715163_c952bdd02c_o.gif
 

Gotta love the ESPN article I just saw about the ZEIN on the outside of his glove, as if we should all ignore what was on the inside of his glove because he has an ode to a cancer stricken kid on his glove in sharpie.
 
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10/24

8:07 PM


953 STL-M Wacha
954 BOS-J Lackey
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[TD="class: pct"] 19%
81%
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53%
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49%
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mlb_r_michael-wacha_mb_576x324.jpg

<cite></cite>Michael Wacha has dominated everyone this postseason.
The Boston Red Sox will go for their 10th straight World Series win on Thursday night when they face the St. Louis Cardinals.

Here are some of the notes and numbers our SportsCenter crew and ESPN Radio game broadcasters Dan Shulman and Orel Hershiser will be talking about during Game 2.

Michael Wacha stats to know
Wacha is 3-0 with an 0.43 ERA in three starts this postseason. He’s now made 12 starts in his career, combining the regular season and postseason and has pitched at least seven innings while allowing two or fewer hits in five of those.

The 22-year-old Wacha will be the second-youngest Cardinals starting pitcher in World Series history, trailing only Paul Dean (brother of Dizzy Dean), who won two starts for the Cardinals against the Tigers in the 1934 World Series.

The Elias Sports Bureau notes that Wacha could become the first rookie starter to win four games in the postseason.

Wacha has been the master of finishing hitters off and is doing so with great variety. Opponents are 4-for-45 against him in two-strike counts this postseason, with 21 outs coming via his fastball and 20 via his offspeed pitches (changeup and curveball).

John Lackey stats to know
Lackey is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 11 innings this postseason.

Fenway Park has been a comfortable place to pitch. He’s 7-3 with a 2.71 ERA in 14 starts there this season (including his ALDS Game 2 win over Tampa Bay).<!-- begin player card -->
[h=4]John Lackey[/h][h=5]#41 SP
Boston Red Sox[/h]2013 STATS

  • GM29
  • W10
  • L13
  • BB40
  • K161
  • ERA3.52


<!-- end player card -->Lackey is no stranger to the World Series, making three appearances (two starts) for the Angels in their 2002 World Series victory, in which he won Game 7.

Per Elias, he is the seventh pitcher who won Game 7 of a best-of-seven World Series to pitch for another team in a subsequent World Series.

Carlos Beltran is a game-time decision with a rib injury. Should Beltran be in the lineup, he’ll be challenged to hit Lackey, against whom he is 0-for-9 in his career.

Did you know?
• The Red Sox have won Game 2 in each of their last three World Series appearances. The Cardinals have lost Game 2 in each of their last four World Series appearances. That’s the second-longest Game 2 losing streak in World Series history, one shy of the Cubs, who have lost their last five Game 2s.

• During their nine-game World Series win streak that started with Game 1 of the 2004 Fall Classic, the Boston Red Sox have only trailed after a completion of an inning three times. For greater perspective, that amounts to the Red Sox trailing after 3.7 percent of the World Series innings they’ve played over the last decade.

[h=4]Red Sox in World Series
Since Start of 2004[/h]
Innings Played81
Led after inning74
Tied after inning4
Trailed after inning3

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• Not only do the Red Sox rarely trail, but thanks to fast starts, they’ve led after 74 out of 81 innings played (91.4 percent). Boston has outscored opponents 15-1 in the first inning of its last nine World Series games played.

• The health of Beltran will be an ongoing storyline, but the regular-season numbers say it might not be as big of a factor as suspected.

Elias informs us that the Cardinals has a .547 winning percentage with Beltran playing in his two seasons on the club, while posting an .821 winning percentage (23-5) in his absence.

• In Game 1, Pete Kozma became one of four players in the last 55 years to commit two errors at shortstop in a World Series game. Don't expect that to continue, as Kozma's .984 fielding percentage this season was second-best among National League shortstops (Troy Tulowitzki, .986).
 
Bc I still don't get how 13 overs have hit so far in the playoffs yet 18 if both were not shutout
 
just heard beltran is giving it a go on the foxsports 1 show, whatever it's called
 
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[TD]23015[/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]8:00 PM [/TD]
[TD]23016[/TD]
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I just played Pedroia. Obviously if Beltran doesn't go, it'll get cancelled. If he does, hopefully he isn't 100%. Who knows, maybe he takes one at bat and then decides to say no more. And even if he's healthy, Pedroia isn't no slouch. 2-4 last night I think he can win regardless if Beltran is healthy or not. Small bet on Pedroia for me.
 
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