St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Redsox - 2013 World Series Discussion

Beltran is such a puss bag. My wife was even making fun of him for leaving the game - then again, she is a hockey fan. Sticking with the plan and taking the home team tonight. Like Wacha, but Lackey relishes these challenges. Also feel like StL is hobbled with Craig and Beltran injuries - similar to LA last series.
 
cogenman said:
According to the article play posted they're going for their 10th straight world series win. So they've won all their games 1,2,3 if I'm not mistaken.
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The Sox are going for their 10th straight win. I think he said the Cards had won their previous 3 WS Game 1s.
 
scdoggy said:
Come on BC. How about him beating a Pittsburgh team who had scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 7 games before he shut them down?

I've watched his starts and the kid's stuff is filthy. I don't care who the hitters are. I'll give you that he hasn't ever pitched on this kind of a stage before, and Lackey has but you could say the same thing against his previous playoff starts and it didn't seem to bother him.
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Pitt had the league's 20th ranked offense, LA had the league's 18th ranked offense (the latter of course being the case before considering their crucial injuries). I shouldn't need to tell you where Boston's ranked.

He has filthy stuff, fine. Waino has pretty good stuff, too. Didn't matter in Game 1. Look at his game log as a starter. He's faced a host of low/er ranked lineups to generate his current stellar stats across the board, and has predominantly done so at home. He's failed in 1 of 2 road starts against top 11 ranked batting lineups (failed @10th ranked Colorado, didn't @11th ranked Cincy). The book is obv. still out as to how good this guy really is. He maybe as fantastic as his stats suggest, or he may be just a good pitcher who's currently overperforming, helped by the nature of the opposition he's gotten to face. Or he could be another, if slightly more polished, Rick Ankiel. It's all too early to tell. Now he's paying barely over plus odds on the road vs. the #1 ranked offense, with a batting lineup behind him in RISP-hitting meltdown mode & significant injuries of its own. GL w/buying into that scenario on a regular basis and making money. To do so tonight is a pure gamble, and as already stated I fail to see how the current odds make that gamble worth a shot.



scdoggy said:
Oh, and how's this for free outs?

Johnny Gomes batting .179 in Oct
Stephen Drew batting .103 in Oct
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Which means you missed my point. Just because players haven't been producing at their best doesn't mean they can't do so on any given night. Come Game 5 against Wacha, LA had 2 players all but prevented from doing so by injury ("all but" because they might have luckboxed such an effort even so hampered, but it's simple logic that - with all else being even - the best you can produce when injured cannot match the best you can produce when you're not), and a 3rd (Kershaw) whose best was below-average by any normal offensive standards barring his being at the 1 venue conducive to hitting for anybody (his only 2-hit games this season were both @Coors). There's no injuries preventing the 2 Boston players listed from replicating the best they've manifested at any time previous this season.
 
And the starting pitcher of a game is only ONE variable. The cards defense is not very good. And everyone is forgetting that this redsox turnaround this year largely revolves around their guy going tonight.


Lets see how it plays out.
 
GWarner27 said:
Bc I still don't get how 13 overs have hit so far in the playoffs yet 18 if both were not shutout
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Sorry, it was very late my time when I replied, and just the way you worded shit led to my mislabelling the 19-13-2 number as to Under, not Over. It was/is 19-13-2 to Over (as is clear to be the case in my 2 stat specific posts which preceded my answering you initially incorrectly).
 
NBA - Cards team fielding percentage in the regular season was 4th in the majors. Boston was 8th.

BC - To me StL is worth a play for the series at +205. If Wacha wins tonight, I have a chance to make money. If he loses, they head home where they have been dominant and need to win three games. Sure the book is out on the kid but he's looked pretty damn good over the last month and made all the Dodgers hitters look bad, not just the injured ones. Your condescending remark about "good luck making money with that approach" must indicate you see value in Boston at -240ish for the series?
 
scdoggy said:
NBA - Cards team fielding percentage in the regular season was 4th in the majors. Boston was 8th.

BC - To me StL is worth a play for the series at +205. If Wacha wins tonight, I have a chance to make money. If he loses, they head home where they have been dominant and need to win three games. Sure the book is out on the kid but he's looked pretty damn good over the last month and made all the Dodgers hitters look bad, not just the injured ones. Your condescending remark about "good luck making money with that approach" must indicate you see value in Boston at -240ish for the series?
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My thoughts have always been directed at tonight's game specifically, it's to that which my "condescending" remark is concerned (you say condescending, I say derisive. I'm derisive of anyone who finds betting into tonight's SU scenario for STL at their odds as something that's attractive to do. That doesn't mean they can't or won't win tonight, simply imo over the long run this 'exact' scenario delivers negative returns).

If you cap a scenario taking the Cards WS future that works for you which includes an anticipation of their being down 0-2, then on that I've nothing to say (except to note the long term WS stats for teams chances when down 0-2 aren't pretty reading).
 
C-MAN said:
Beltran is such a puss bag. My wife was even making fun of him for leaving the game - then again, she is a hockey fan. Sticking with the plan and taking the home team tonight. Like Wacha, but Lackey relishes these challenges. Also feel like StL is hobbled with Craig and Beltran injuries - similar to LA last series.
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you made me laugh about beltran. good stuff. but if your wife thinks he's a puss, can only imagine what she thought of bobby abreu.
that pussy avoided OF walls like they were infected by STDs.
 
deleted what i was posting, and biting my tongue. don't really know why, cuz i don't really care anymore. but was just laughing...& out loud, fwiw.
 
scdoggy said:
Condescending, derisive, and acting like a cocksucker are more or less synonyms
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Everything I've posted has been directed specifically at real world realities, the logical processes I've used to arrive at my perceptions all posted. Nothing I've said has any ad hominem content to it at all (what I've stated I'm derisive of, is the logic which ignores everything I've stated as undermining the value of the Cardinals tonight. To the person who acknowledges all the realties I've highlighted but still chooses to bet STL anyway, I'm not derisive. They know they making a dodgy bet/taking a real gamble, but choose do so anyway. GL to them. It's those who refuse to acknowledge those realities as being valid, that I'm specifically derisive of). It would seem you've taken something impersonal and made it personal.
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
deleted what i was posting, and biting my tongue. don't really know why, cuz i don't really care anymore. but was just laughing...& out loud, fwiw.
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You mean because tonight's result is connected with the future result anyway? Cards futures backers can lose tonight and still cash. Cards G2 SU backers win nothing by losing tonight.
 
BC's is talking about hominems. I'm talking about not coming off as an asshole when responding to someone.
 
twinkie - odds decide whether the gamble you're making is worth the time of day or not. Just because a game is lined relatively even doesn't mean all realities for both sides are equally even (to state the obvious). Someone's stellar pitching to this point has him, imo, overvalued. But even if he is for real (& his stats will carry over even against the better performed teams, because he really is a long term star in the making), the batting lineup behind him has been all but dogshit generally, but especially on the road. If he had the same record in his short time as a starter against more accomplished teams, and/or his batting lineup was guaranteed to give him X amount of runs whether he succeeded or failed (relative to his recent results, of course), then obv. my thoughts on this game would be a lot different.
 
Playoff count after 35 games (incl. Tex/Tby)

Overall
Favs SU: 22-13
Favs RL: 16-19
O/U .. -: 19-14-2

-------

AL Park the Home team's venue
Favs SU: 12-7
Favs RL: 9-10
O/U .. -: 8-9-2

Games @Fenway
Favs SU: 4-3
Favs RL: 3-4
O/U .. -: 4-2-1 (avg. 8.43 rpg - 1 game has totaled less than 6 runs)

-------

NL park the Home team's venue
Favs SU: 10-6
Favs RL: 7-9
O/U .. -: 11-5

Games @Busch
Favs SU: 2-4
Favs RL: 2-4
O/U .. -: 4-2 (avg. 6.67 rpg - 1 game has totaled less than 5 runs)

-------

World Series
Favs SU: 1-1
Favs RL: 1-1
O/U .. -: 1-1
 
Going back to STL, playing without the DH, that should help STL right? Their pitchers know how to lay a bunt down, how to sacrifice a runner over to the next base. I'm sure Boston will practice it with their pitchers but they probably won't be as adept. Also no DH so that'll take one of their big bats out. Papi probably goes to first base so we'll see how he does.
 
cogenman said:
Just looked at the last time Boston played a NL game and they went with Papi at 1B. So they let Napoli sit. It was a 2 game series with the Rockies and they let him sit both games. I'd imagine they'd find a way for both him and Papi to both be in the lineup. If I remember right, Napoli used to catch at Anaheim so maybe they make him catch.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_09_25_bosmlb_colmlb_1&mode=box&c_id=bos
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Pretty sure they already said Papi is going to play 1B and Napoli will be on the bench.
 
Lareux said:
Pretty sure they already said Papi is going to play 1B and Napoli will be on the bench.
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I knew Papi would be playing first but they need to get Napoli's bat in the lineup. I'd see if he can still catch and put him there.
 
cogenman said:
I knew Papi would be playing first but they need to get Napoli's bat in the lineup. I'd see if he can still catch and put him there.
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There is no way in hell they are going to have him catch. It's not fair to the pitchers or salty

ortiz should play 1st in atleast two of the games
 
nbafan88 said:
There is no way in hell they are going to have him catch. It's not fair to the pitchers or salty

ortiz should play 1st in atleast two of the games
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Unless Ortiz isn't hitting at all, you may see him play all 3 games at 1st, since St L has only RH starters. Will be interesting to see how much of an impact it will have on Boston, both not having the DH in the lineup, and having Papi (who is obviously not very good in the field) playing 1b.
 
Slaptron said:
Lmfao @ napoli catching
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It's not that crazy of an idea though, if Boston wants to keep his bat in the lineup. Agree that it may not be fair to the pitching staff, who hasn't pitched to him, but let's not act as if Napoli isn't/wasn't a catcher. He's caught twice as many games in the bigs as he's played at 1B. The timing of him moving to catch (the 3rd game of the WS) may be what has you laughing, and that may be right to think it'd be crazy they would do it at this stage of the season.

I'm not sure that it not being fair to Salty would mean too much to Boston though, it's not like Salty is hitting a lick in the post-season, and he did just make a couple of costly miscues in Game 2. I'm just not sure anyone would be worried about a guy's feelings at this point...they are trying to win a WS, not make everyone happy.
 
Everybody look for your boy tonight I'll be in the 2nd deck near the RF foul pole....I'll have a gigantic CTG sign with a picture of Fondy on it.
 
Lareux said:
It's not that crazy of an idea though, if Boston wants to keep his bat in the lineup. Agree that it may not be fair to the pitching staff, who hasn't pitched to him, but let's not act as if Napoli isn't/wasn't a catcher. He's caught twice as many games in the bigs as he's played at 1B. The timing of him moving to catch (the 3rd game of the WS) may be what has you laughing, and that may be right to think it'd be crazy they would do it at this stage of the season.

I'm not sure that it not being fair to Salty would mean too much to Boston though, it's not like Salty is hitting a lick in the post-season, and he did just make a couple of costly miscues in Game 2. I'm just not sure anyone would be worried about a guy's feelings at this point...they are trying to win a WS, not make everyone happy.
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Naps aint goin near the plate with gear on...he cant and sox would never do it
has nothing to do with salty but everything to do with calling a game, defense and solid play thats why i think u even see Ross in there more ahead of salty now esp late inning leads

Nap sits maybe even for 3 games depending on Papi
 
Retburj13 said:
Naps aint goin near the plate with gear on...he cant and sox would never do it
has nothing to do with salty but everything to do with calling a game, defense and solid play thats why i think u even see Ross in there more ahead of salty now esp late inning leads

Nap sits maybe even for 3 games depending on Papi
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Yep, I don't think he's catching either. Just saying it wasn't that crazy of an idea....Napoli is/was a catcher after all. The Salty comments were in response to someone saying it wouldn't be fair to Salty...feelings don't mean shit at this point in the season.
 
Retburj13 said:
Nap sits maybe even for 3 games depending on Papi
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Lareux said:
Unless Ortiz isn't hitting at all, you may see him play all 3 games at 1st, since St L has only RH starters. Will be interesting to see how much of an impact it will have on Boston, both not having the DH in the lineup, and having Papi (who is obviously not very good in the field) playing 1b.
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:shake:
 
Lareux said:
Yep, I don't think he's catching either. Just saying it wasn't that crazy of an idea....Napoli is/was a catcher after all. The Salty comments were in response to someone saying it wouldn't be fair to Salty...feelings don't mean shit at this point in the season.
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It is a crazy idea because he can't play catcher, hasn't this year if I'm not mistaken and believe it or not there's a ton of value to pinch hit him (though I'm not sure he's as lethal as people think). Craig is gonna be huge in that spot with Adams at 1B
 
GWarner27 said:
It is a crazy idea because he can't play catcher, hasn't this year if I'm not mistaken and believe it or not there's a ton of value to pinch hit him (though I'm not sure he's as lethal as people think). Craig is gonna be huge in that spot with Adams at 1B
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I obviously don't think he's going to play C either (I just didn't think it was the craziest idea ever), but did something happen that he can't catch? He was a catcher for his entire career before he started playing 1B.
 
Lareux said:
I obviously don't think he's going to play C either (I just didn't think it was the craziest idea ever), but did something happen that he can't catch? He was a catcher for his entire career before he started playing 1B.
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doesnt really matter if he could or not... just dont think the pitchers are use to him behind the plate

it would disrupt the team tremendously... and the pitchers would be furious... creatures of habit and that would really suck for them imo

nothing worse than giving pitchers something else to think about when they are out there
 
on the sox again tonight, line speaks volumes to me

[TABLE="class: tableOdds, width: 1114"]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]10/26

8:07 PM


955 BOS-J Peavy
956 STL-J Kelly
​
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 38%
62%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 31%
69%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 73%
27%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
nbafan88 said:
doesnt really matter if he could or not... just dont think the pitchers are use to him behind the plate

it would disrupt the team tremendously... and the pitchers would be furious... creatures of habit and that would really suck for them imo

nothing worse than giving pitchers something else to think about when they are out there
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Ugh. I agree with you guys ffs. GW said he couldn't catch so I asked if there was a reason why.
 
 
Lareux said:
I obviously don't think he's going to play C either (I just didn't think it was the craziest idea ever), but did something happen that he can't catch? He was a catcher for his entire career before he started playing 1B.
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You're right on but he's not able to do it due to age/lack of athletic ability. Frankly it was a joke he had catcher eligibility this year in fantasy and I got him in every league because of it. No chance he plays ever again (barring legitimate Sky is falling emergency)
 
GWarner27 said:
You're right on but he's not able to do it due to age/lack of athletic ability. Frankly it was a joke he had catcher eligibility this year in fantasy and I got him in every league because of it. No chance he plays ever again (barring legitimate Sky is falling emergency)
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Thanks for the answer, appreciate it.
 
Boston on the road vs +.500 NL teams in the reg. season? there was one series which qualifies. That series just happened to be against LA during their insanely hot period. Boston become the only team to inflict on LA a series loss (2-1) during their 53-13 run (odds: +109 & -120 for the 4-2 & 8-1 wins, -105 for the 2-0 loss). Peavy pitched the (-120) 8-1 game (Napoli played in place of Papi).

During that 53-13 run, LA went 23-6 against all other teams @home (.793), and Boston was the only team to beat them in B2B games during that entire run.

The notion that Boston is going to struggle here simply because they're playing in an NL park, is a dubious one. But that's just MO, of course.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
The notion that Boston is going to struggle here simply because they're playing in an NL park, is a dubious one. But that's just MO, of course.
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Recent history says that Boston will struggle in an NL park, fwiw...

If that sounds like the sort of thing that could cost the Red Sox — or any American League team — a World Series victory, well, it is. Over the last seven Fall Classics, AL teams are only 5-14 when playing under NL rules.

Of course, the absence of a DH isn't the only reason for that dismal road record. NL teams are aided by home-field advantage and the last at-bat. But the AL's .263 winning percentage is striking — even in a small sample size — and suggests that Major League Baseball would be wise to adopt the DH rule for all World Series games, as it has in the All-Star Game and World Baseball Classic.
 
GWarner27 said:
You're right on but he's not able to do it due to age/lack of athletic ability. Frankly it was a joke he had catcher eligibility this year in fantasy and I got him in every league because of it. No chance he plays ever again (barring legitimate Sky is falling emergency)
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I just read that Napoli has a degenerative hip condition, which is the reason he doesn't catch anymore. The Sox are flirting with the idea of Napoli playing 3B though, and he took ground balls there today. Again, it's probably not at all likely that he would play 3B, but it is something they are thinking about.
 
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