SMH NFL Playoff thread

smh212

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate
Coming off my first losing NFL season in a long time. Going into the playoffs for some redemtion.

Sides: 43-45 -11.21
Totals 11-17 -3.25
Teasers: 10-8 -0.64
64-70 -15.1 units

Wildcard Round

BENAGLS +4.5 (1.25) and BENGALS +180 (.25)
My line: Hou -3
Two teams heading in the opposite directions. Houston has their mojo going. Houston? Not so much. Cincys defense is vastly underrated. They should have no problem with a Houston offense that has lost it's way. On offense, Dalton has shown marked improvement with his decision making. Cincy almost boast the most explosive offensive player in this game in A.J. Green. If you don't think he has surpassed Andre Johnson, then you haven't been attention. This is Cincy's game to win and I like their chances.

REDSKINS +3 (1.25) and REDSKINS +130 (.25)
My line: PK

Both teams come into this game hot. You can make arguments for both sides, but the fact remains that Russell Wilson is a rookie QB and he will be playing his first playoff game on the road, cross country. Rookie QB's history do no fare well in the playoffs, and despite how well Seattle is playing, this is a tall task. Both teams feature excellent running attack, but I see ZERO reason why Seattle should be a FG favorite in Washington.

Teaser Special:

2T GB -1 and BALT Pk (5)

I think we see a focused GB team on Saturday, which is the polar opposite of what we saw from GB last year. Yes, Peterson will get his, but Ponder on the road, at night in a cold Lambeau is a recipe for disaster. Rodger is clicking, and with his full compliment of WR's ready for this one, I like GB to blow Minny out of the water. I had reservations with Baltimore, but with Ray Lewis declaring his retirement at the end of the season, I believe the focus and want will be there. While Indy has been a great story all season, the fact is that Luck has thrown more INT's on the road, and Indy has a horrible run defense. I think their impressive season comes to a close on Saturday as Baltrolls this team out of the playoffs. This game is my biggest bet of the season,

Good Luck.

:thumbsup2:
 
Yeah, I have the same tease and thought about hedging. Then I said screw it and added to my Balt wager.
 
Wild Card week 2

Playoffs:
Sides: 0-2 -2.75 units
Totals: 0-0
Teasers: 1-0 +5.00
1-2 +2.25 units


ATLANTA -2.5, -110 (1.25) and ATLANTA -3 +105 (1)
MY line: Atl -3

This is situational play on Atlanta for me, and here is my thought process:

The Public Darling: Seattle
The past two Super Bowl winners have been wild card teams, GB, and the NYG respectively. Both teams were lead by outstanding QB play and were able to guide their teams to Super Bowl wins while establishing themselves as elite QB's. This year, Seattle appears to me "that" team. They entered the playoffs read hot and it carried over to a road win. The difference is that this Seattle team is not led by an elite QB. They are led by a rookie QB, albeit an excellent one, but a rook non the less.

The team that can't win playoff games: Atlanta
The failures of Atlanta over the past years are well documented. Two years ago they had home field advantage, and Aaron Rodgers came in an tore them a new one. However, things change. I think we saw the growth and maturation of Matt Ryan this year. I think the team has grown as well, and this 2012 version is a different beast than that 2010 team that got ripped.

The situation
Seattle will travel to the East Coast again this week following up the trip they made to Wash last week. Speaking which, the game in Washington took a toll on Seattle. They lost their sack leader in Clemons and their kicker. They also had to use a lot energy to battle back from being down 14-0. Atlanta is well rested and pissed. All they have have been hearing for the past two weeks is how they can't win a play off game. How great the Seattle defense is, how great their corners are. Think Roddy White and Julio Jones will have something to say about that? I do, and I think this is Ryan's coming out party.

Atlanta wins this one 24-17.

HOUSTON +9.5 (1) and HOUSTON +370 (.25)
My line: Ne -7

If the MNF ass whipping the Pats put on Houston a month back isn't motivation, than I don't know what is. Last week we saw a Houston team that hadn't shown a thing in a month get back to their roots. They fed Foster, they played defense and they stepped up when it mattered most. I think NE is the better team, but I don't think Houston goes away easy.

The teaser: NE -2.5 and DEN -1 (2)

Suicide play: DENVER (I can use them again if I advance)
 
Thanks fellas.

Adding:2 parlay: DEN -9 and ATL -3, +100 (1) risking 1 to win 2.81

I believe that Denver is going to absolutely blow the doors off Baltimore. Giving myself some options and reducing some risk with the parlay.
 
Adding another:

2T Den -2 and UNDER 51 (2)

It's 13 degrees in Denver.....that's pretty damn cold. Weather like that will have an effect on catching and throwing for sure. I expect it to further hinder Baltimore's old ass defense and when Denver get's a lead, I think they sit on it.
 
Championship Games

PLAYOFFS -6.18 units

My bankroll has spoken and I'm listening: I'm not going to finish this NFL season in the plus. I bet per my roll, and my NFL bankroll has been depleted because of my poor performance (regular season record posted at the start of this thread). I'm now betting less on NFL games than at any point of the season. That's what happens when you practice money management. I have one person to blame for this years performance: myself. I'm still working at it, and still have opinions on today's events:

FALCONS +4 (.75) and FALCONS +170
My line: SF -2.5

If SF can repeat last weeks performance, then god bless them.

BALTIMORE +7.5 (.75) and BALTIMORE +310
My line: NE -6.5

Baltimore has NE's # IMO. Not only do I think they win today but...

BALTIMORE +700 (.75) to win the Super Bowl

Good Luck.

:shake:
 
Super Bowl

PLAYOFFS -4.91 units

Thanks for the props fellas.

As you can see from above I have the RAVENS +700 to win the bowl. My line on this game is SF -3.5, so slight edge to Balty, and I will jump on a 4.5 if I find one. This game has been broken down so many times, and so many ways. The fact that I have +700 on Balt is a great value, which is what betting is all about.

My line: SF -3.5 45

My plays:
RAVENS +700 (.75) and UNDER 47.5 (1)

I did play some props all for .25 and may add:


  • V.Davis Score a TD - YES +165: I like the fact that Colin has been looking Vern's way recently, and I don't see where Baltimore can really match up with him.
  • V.Davis OVER 3.5 recepts, -115
  • Torrey Smith +17.5 YDS vs Crabtree -110: I'll take Baltimore's best long ball threat against a guy who may or may not get a lot of touches.
  • First scoring play FG by RAVENS +325: Couple of factors here: The odds of SF going for it in while in FG range are good, given the struggles or Akers, while the odds of Baltimore kicking a FG once in range are far greater. Then there is the Akers factor all together. Dude just isn't in a good spot mentally.
  • First team to score wins? NO +140: Just taking the value here. Both clubs have shown remarkable resiliency all season.
  • Team to score shortest FG: Balt -105: See above
  • Defensive or Special Teams TD? YES - +165: If it were not for the fact that defensive scores are included, I'd pass this one.

Good Luck.
 
Why not between you got a great value at +700

why not make money no matter who wins
 
Thanks Hunt!

DDK - I like Balty as it is, and +700 compared to the current ML.

Adding: BALTIMORE +4.5 (1)
 
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