SF_capper's day 1 of discipline

SF_capper

CTG addict
ok, gonna try to be much more disciplined on my bets from here on out. that means less bets and less crazy sized bets. I've been getting burned thinking that I was much better than I really am, last yr hitting like all of my big bets. I realize I was lucky and hell am even "due for losses". Gonna try to post plays so that I can brag about my record and blah blah. more to check how I'm really doing. Its easy to say I'm doing pretty good this season after a big win, or bad after a loss. But I wanna see what my record really is. I'll try to keep record of my Totals record, side's record, 1 unit/2 unit etc record, maybe even chalk/dog record... Christmas break about to start on Friday for me (meaning finals this week). Will have more time when break rolls around

one game I like is:

New Jersey +2.5 @ Washington Wizards

I posted this in thread 2 days ago that I expected Wash to get killed these 2 games. They've looked ok without Arenas, but the level of competition hasn't been too great (yes I know they won @ Dallas, but even that doesn't seem as difficult as it did last yr) Also, the weakest link on this Wiz team is imo the PG. Daniels is a fine PG off the bench, and with Roger Mason as your backup PG... you need help. Nash exploited it with 19 assists, and Kidd will exploit it. Kidd is top 3 PG in the league- I don't care what numbers say. He knows the game better than maybe any player in the league. NJ is off 2 losses and the players are really frustrated, R Jeff calling it pathetic. Wash off a loss too, but they aren't nearly upset, saying they played alright blah blah. I hate teams that said they played pretty well of a loss. You're saying losing at home is ok cuz you played someone good? shit. well anyways, lotta people will like to fade NJ cuz of their Kidd troubles and trade rumors and stuff. Kidd is a fuckin pro vet. Thats bull that you say he's gonna tank games/ not show up as a protest. He's not Stephon.. well either way, I like NJ to show up, despite revenge for Wash. yea Wash gave up a big lead to NJ earlier this year and a loss. Its scary, but I still like NJ to roll. Expect them to come out hard and blazing...

"The first 10 to 13 minutes of every game we're terrible. We're awful," Jefferson said. "It's almost a joke. I'm as responsible as anybody. It's frustrating because after that we either play even or better than our opponent. I think more times we've probably played better. It's just that we're trying to come back from such a deficit every single game."

little trend: NJ has won SU in 8 of last 9 matchups b/w these 2. pretty relevant if you ask me

Like New Jersey and New Jersey 1st H
 
another one I like

Detroit Pistons -12 vs Charlotte Bobcats

well this one will be a public play, which I'm usually wearly of, but I'm trying not to let the fact that other poople like it affect my play. This one is pretty simple. The Pistons are good and the Bobcats suck. Situationally wise: Pistons off a tough home loss to rival Chicago as 8 pt faves. They got outrebounded and out hustled as they mentioned in many quotes. I'm not afraid of a taking it easy, as they've mentioned that Charlotte is a lot like Chicago in that they're a smallish team that'll hit the boards hard. They've mentioned that Carrol typically has good nights against him. They will not look past the Bobcats. The Kittens are actually off a win. They strarted feeding Okafor more in the post and it worked as they got their W. They did something in that W that they haven't been doing lately: hitting FTs down the stretch. Felton went 10-10 in the last minute- something he hasn't been doing all yr- esp when I bet on them. Well Charlotte was probably celebrating that W big time. They snapped their losing streak finally are probably content even losing this game. I think Detroit comes out more motivated and Charlotte comes out flat. Also like Detroit 1st H as I see them coming out hard. Billups on the last game: "if I had been more aggressive early, we might have had a chance."

Detroit: 4-1 ATS off a loss this season

Like Detroit and Detroit 1st H
 
smaller play on

Miami Heat @ Clips UNDER 188.5

First since many are on Miami, I wanna say why I'm not. Miami without Jason Williams- which is very important for them. I consider PG the most important position on the court- kinda like the QB. With J will out, either that means Wade starts, or Quin does. Either way, its not good. I kinda lean Clips 1st H, although Miami has been bringing it the 1st half. Wade admittingly said he was tired after playing the whole 2nd H against GS. Riley admitted that it was his fault for keeping him in, which in my opinion means he'll give Wade a lot more rest early and try to keep him for the 4th Q. Shaq should get a lot more touches this game. What that means for miami- I have no idea. Kind of scared Clips come out flat off the win to get them off their losing streak.

why I like this under:
Miami tried to run with the Warriors. Yea. Well they obviously lost the game, a game they were up DD most of the game and they lost it. Must be kinda heartbreaking for them. Either way, thru their losses, they've been piss poor on D. Looks like they'll bring their D this game. This situationally is a nice spot imo for the heat, but they suck, so I'll pass

"I was just stressing to the team it's got to be on the other side of the floor," Haslem said. "I was just stressing we've got to play defense."
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Riley keeps insisting defense, not offense, is the Heat's main issue, and he has evidence to support his point of view.
[FONT=&quot]"All of those numbers, defensively, are around last in the league," he said. "Our last five losses are not about offense. It's really the fact we can't guard anybody right now."

couple Heat quotes. Also, the Clips imo will come out flat after their comeback W. With J WIll out and no1 to really run this offense (Wade is a 2 guard.. a scorer) I don't think they can put up many points. Looks like Miami will rest Wade more, and try to bring it into Shaq more-- slowing the game down. I would say having Quin as your starting PG (probably) would hurt a team on the defensive end, but Brevin Knight is the starting PG for the Clips, so I won't say it.

Like the under

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oh also, I'm cheering on a Miami blowout for better value on what will be a 20 pt Phoenix blowout on Monday. one of the better spots so far this yr
 
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wow completely wrong on this one 2 minutes left in the 2nd. 49-49. Miami shooting 51% and Clips shooting 66%. so much for focusing on the defensive side miami
 
ahh right when I think there'll be a drought. well 102 pts in the 1st H, need under 84.5 pts in the 2nd H for my whole game to hit. actually still feel pretty decewnt about it. leaning the 2nd H under as well. sucks that my lean of clips 1st H wins
 
I am still being disciplined. This is one hell of an under to get in

2nd H Miami/LAC UNDER 92.5 (-120)- 6 units

really like this one still ok with my whole game bet as well
 
I'm gonna be out, but here's what I'll play. count it in my record. dunno what my line will be, but there's usually a consensus around books which I'll probably have.

Detroit 1st H -?- 1 unit
Detroit -?- 3 units
New Jersey 1st H +?- 4 units
New Jersey +?- 3 units
 
fuck it like a loser, I'll post a record for my official leans. ha. Just to track how I would've done had I played em. I'm counting Clips 1st H as an official lean as I wrote it. so official lean will be

Seattle +7.5
 
man what are you talking about? and who are you talkin to:36_11_6:
 
today's card:

Miami/LAC UNDER 186.5- 2 UNITS lose
2nd H Miami/LAC UNDER 92.5 (-120)- 6 units win
Detroit 1st H -7- 1 unit win
Detroit -12- 3 units
New Jersey 1st H +2- 5 units
New Jersey +3- 3 units
 
is that it or anything for warriors/lakers? :11_12_13:

lean the obvious from a homer: GS and over. Not sure how GS responds to SA coming up. lookahead or try to get this W before a loss that they know will happen. SA will slaughter GS- no question. Maybe if this NJ hits, I'll put a unit on each GS and over. what you think of this game?
 
and NJ 1st H cashes... damn, I'd be havin a helluva day if it wasn't for losing near 7 units in football. fuck I quit that
 
and GS/LAL OVER 225- 1 unit

well here's a semi writeup for GS 1st H:

Golden State just escaped with a W thanks to a Heat collapse. GS was down down at HT by 10 and in the 2nd Q by as many as 18. They know they can't do that this game and quoted that they needa start out faster. They also have SA in their next game- a game GS knows we'll lose.. sadly. I usually like the more motivated teams to come out with the W in the first half. Also, not sure if even the warriors remember, but they lost last yr at LA as one of their only losses in their sick playoff run. It was a close ass game and I think Jackson missed the gamewinning 3 at the buzzer. don't remember too well. Hopefully there's a little revenge? likely not, but it can't hurt. LA swept GS last yr, but aside from that OT loss, the others were with Dunleavy and Murphy over Jackson and Harringotn (what a trade)

the over:
don't really need explanation. I expect GS to come out blazing in the first half, maybe like 60+ points at HT for them. I expect a close game near the end with lotta FTs and possibly OT. Two fast paced teams. Phil Jackson knows he'll adjust to the lineups, which is why I'll probably play just 1st H GS thinkin Phil will have adjustments at HT
 
so the card is:

Miami/LAC UNDER 186.5- 2 UNITS lose
2nd H Miami/LAC UNDER 92.5 (-120)- 6 units win
Detroit 1st H -7- 1 unit win
Detroit -12- 3 units win
New Jersey 1st H +2- 5 units win
New Jersey +3- 3 units lose
1st H Golden State +2 (-120)- 2 units
GS/LAL OVER 225- 1 unit

so far:
4-2
+9.5 units
 
I can't believe I didn't think of this before. HAHAH Kobe guarding Baron and Fish guarding Monta. I'm hoping Warriors are down 1 at HT so I can pound them 2nd H.
 
well I said I would, so I can't just not do it. 1st H looks exactly like I expected it to

Golden State 2nd H +3 (-120)- 3 units
 
Amazing discipline ;)

hey if I said I wished for down 1 and got it, I gotta play it. heh. oh well, I held off on playing seattle, seattle 1st and 2nd Hs, this warrior game 2nd half under, Portland, Miami, and Houston. heh I'm serious
 
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