September Bases

Chasing the total has not been good the past week and maybe deserves a rest

Under was 0-1 yesterday and 3-9-1 last 7 days

None indicated today

Over was 0-1 yesterday and 3-7 last 7 day

Overs indicated today: SF, WAS, PIT, TEX

View attachment 43200
 
adding a few more
  • 976 Los Angeles Angels +185
  • 979 Atlanta Braves -130
  • 957 Philadelphia Phillies/Washington Nationals Over 10½ -105
  • 961 Colorado Rockies/San Francisco Giants Over 9 +100
  • 971 Boston Red Sox/Texas Rangers Over 12 -103
  • 979 Atlanta Braves -1½ +115
I also really like degrom but fuck that at -450 :rofl:
Bear in mind I am having fun with these late season games with a very low unit size. Normal baseball unit was 2.5% of bank...now I'm at .75% for the last week.

View attachment 43201
 
fukn berds have beat me like 5 times in the last week, but Ima glutton who needs afternoon action...LEGGO
  • 952 Arizona Diamondbacks -109
 
Last edited:
My action...
  • 902 Cincinnati Reds -115
  • 903 Los Angeles Dodgers -235
  • 908 Washington Nationals -260
  • 912 New York Mets -255
  • 913 Minnesota Twins -135
  • 919 Houston Astros -230
  • 913 Minnesota Twins -1½ +115
  • 915 Boston Red Sox/Texas Rangers Over 11 -103
1569497901985.jpg
 
Chasing the line was 2-2 yesterday(3-3 including lines above 300)
Record
L7 days - 15-11 +8.1% ROI
Sept - 49-41 +5.3% ROI
2019 - 358-242 +11.5% ROI

As this is a work in progress and no matter how late in the game, I'm striving to improve probability speculation, I am eliminating all games lined above absolute 300.

7 sides are indicated today and highlighted

View attachment 43215
 
Chasing the total

Under 2-9-1 last 7 days

Reds under indicated today

View attachment 43216

Over 1-3 yesterday and 3-8 last 7 days

Definitely a horrendous run over last 9 days for both totals, although the angle still shows profit for month, year and 7 year range
 
YTD [1277-1136 -11.6u] (17-13 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [5-4 -0.33] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 952 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +115
  • 952 Philadelphia Phillies -166
  • 962 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +160
  • 964 San Francisco Giants +170
  • 965 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -120
  • 965 Tampa Bay Rays -188
  • 968 Boston Red Sox -200
  • 969 New York Yankees -1½ -170
  • 969 New York Yankees -262
  • 973 Minnesota Twins -1½ -140
  • 973 Minnesota Twins -210
  • 975 Houston Astros -203
  • 977 Oakland Athletics -188
  • 977 Oakland Athletics/Seattle Mariners Over 9½ +105
  • 982 Chicago White Sox -157
 
Chasing the line was 4-2 yesterday with nice profit(would have been 5-2 but PIT fell off after line dropped)
Last 7 days

Chasing the line 2013-2019 ~ Last 7 Days
SU:17-12 (0.17, 58.6%)avg line: -113.2 / -107.6on / against: +$690 / -$910ROI: +15.1% / -21.3%
RL:11-18 (0.22, 37.9%)avg line: -113.4 / -106.6on / against: -$1,035 / +$685ROI: -29.4% / +20.6%

Very odd that even though there is 15% ROI over L7 days, it actually has shown a 20% ROI when fading on RL
Today SEA & BAL are indicated but I wont be playing them :nonono:
View attachment 43257

Chasing the total

Not sure why but when I only include the last 7 games of the season it seems the results are actually opposite. In other words when it indicates over, the under is very profitable.

Over indicated is only 29-44 last 7 years, 1-5 this year. 13.8% ROI if you fade the over. Kinda explains how bad the last week has been in that the reverse has really worked well. Probably too small a sample to take seriously but here it is nonetheless

Play WAS UNDER

View attachment 43258

When under is indicated it doesn't play out as distinctly. The over is slightly better at 46-42 last 7 years(5-1-1 this year) but the real thing that I noticed was the home team really (5-2 this year and +12.3% ROI over 7 years) showed well which would point the BOS which I am already playing but not based on this.

View attachment 43259

Maybe I'm rambling and making it hard to follow, for this I'm sorry. Numbers have always been fascinating to me and I believe you will most always see historic patterns repeat themselves. Ticket is to get your timing right.
 
2 more plays for me
  • 960 St. Louis Cardinals -225
  • 979 Cleveland Indians/Washington Nationals Under 9½ -103
 
Last plays on last day...
  • 961 San Diego Padres +123
  • 966 Texas Rangers +152
  • 975 Detroit Tigers +128
  • 980 Washington Nationals +140
73701.jpg
 
Will play Rangers but Washington WHY we know who the best pitcher is
I am not sure you even saw Lynn with edge in ump
 
rolling a few more...
  • 952 San Francisco Giants +166
  • 957 Milwaukee Brewers -169
  • 964 St. Louis Cardinals -260
  • 968 Boston Red Sox -270
  • 975 Detroit Tigers +135
 
View attachment 43281

Well the regular season is a wrap and I had a losing year, but not terrible and considering I had over 2400 games worth of entertainment, it was almost worth it. September was a loser as expected, but I did come across a couple different angles late and got some great info/notes that hopefully can help in the future.

The model I ran was actually quite profitable on value plays. Made 22.2u on value plays for 12% ROI. Overall picking every game finished up 9.4u but gave back 9.1u in Sept so if I would hack stopped Sept 1 could have finished overall up 18u which would have been decent.

View attachment 43282

A little over 2 months ago I came up with a rudimentary totals system that has won at 56%, over 14u for 10% ROI. Included in this is a 9-1 run over last 10 plays. Saturday was 1-0 but not posted or included.

View attachment 43283

Also the chasing the line angle was quite good as well, I will post the record and results later
 
Chasing the line was 5-4 yesterday and for 7 years it is 59.5% while winning 424.8u for 7.6% ROI

View attachment 43284

Yesterday +1.1u
Chasing the line - Yesterdya
SU:5-4 (0.56, 55.6%) avg line: -131.5 / 113.5 on / against: +$115 / -$155 ROI: +8.4% / -13.4%
RL:5-4 (1.06, 55.6%) avg line: -123.5 / 103.5 on / against: -$20 / -$70 ROI: -1.7% / -7.4%

September 2019 +19.8u
Chasing the line - Sept 2019
SU:65-49 (0.89, 57.0%) avg line: -115.5 / -104.5 on / against: +$1,980 / -$2,775 ROI: +11.4% / -16.7%
RL:64-50 (1.08, 56.1%) avg line: -117.9 / -101.7 on / against: +$735 / -$1,735 ROI: +5.1% / -13.2%

Season 2019 +119.4u
Chasing the line - 2019
SU:374-250 (1.00, 59.9%) avg line: -129.3 / 112.6 on / against: +$11,940 / -$14,807 ROI: +12.4% / -18.0%
RL:357-263 (0.88, 57.6%) avg line: -118.6 / -101.4 on / against: +$5,560 / -$10,975 ROI: +7.2% / -15.7%

2013-2019 +424.8u
Chasing the line 2013-2019
SU:2145-1461 (0.76, 59.5%) avg line: -135.6 / 120.4 on / against: +$42,483 / -$60,020 ROI: +7.6% / -13.5%
RL:1992-1602 (0.48, 55.4%) avg line: -115.6 / -100.0 on / against: +$21,411 / -$44,649 ROI: +4.8% / -10.8%
 
mrpickem said:
Chasing the line was 5-4 yesterday and for 7 years it is 59.5% while winning 424.8u for 7.6% ROI

View attachment 43284

Yesterday +1.1u
Chasing the line - Yesterdya
SU:5-4 (0.56, 55.6%) avg line: -131.5 / 113.5 on / against: +$115 / -$155 ROI: +8.4% / -13.4%
RL:5-4 (1.06, 55.6%) avg line: -123.5 / 103.5 on / against: -$20 / -$70 ROI: -1.7% / -7.4%
September 2019 +19.8u

Chasing the line - Sept 2019
SU:65-49 (0.89, 57.0%) avg line: -115.5 / -104.5 on / against: +$1,980 / -$2,775 ROI: +11.4% / -16.7%
RL:64-50 (1.08, 56.1%) avg line: -117.9 / -101.7 on / against: +$735 / -$1,735 ROI: +5.1% / -13.2%
Season 2019 +119.4u

Chasing the line - 2019
SU:374-250 (1.00, 59.9%) avg line: -129.3 / 112.6 on / against: +$11,940 / -$14,807 ROI: +12.4% / -18.0%
RL:357-263 (0.88, 57.6%) avg line: -118.6 / -101.4 on / against: +$5,560 / -$10,975 ROI: +7.2% / -15.7%
2013-2019 +424.8u

Chasing the line 2013-2019
SU:2145-1461 (0.76, 59.5%) avg line: -135.6 / 120.4 on / against: +$42,483 / -$60,020 ROI: +7.6% / -13.5%
RL:1992-1602 (0.48, 55.4%) avg line: -115.6 / -100.0 on / against: +$21,411 / -$44,649 ROI: +4.8% / -10.8%
Click to expand...


Great stuff u had here.....

Hope u post these next year.....will try to follow next year....gl in post season
 
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