September Bases

mrpickem said:
adds
  • 956 Chicago Cubs +101
  • 953 San Diego Padres/Milwaukee Brewers Over 8½ -115
  • 955 St. Louis Cardinals/Chicago Cubs Under 7 +105
mle1oc62ehn31.jpg
Click to expand...

Was wondering what you saw to wash out your earlier under bet in the SD/Milw game...
 
inZane said:
Was wondering what you saw to wash out your earlier under bet in the SD/Milw game...
Click to expand...

Well I wish I wouldn't have, but no real fan of Lyles, the SD pen is shit and Lucchi got shelled last time out, plus my follow the total angle pointed that way. Truth is both these guys have pitched well for the last month except in theoir last game and I probably let that skew my recent numbers too much, esp since lucchesi was in denver. Not very smart on my part.

@tuck321 I liked both NYY and CLE but not the pricing, especially after NYY fukd me yesterday when it should have been much stronger side imo...sept bases is a different animal without doubt
 
YTD [1220-1098 -10.04u] (17-12 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [5-5-1 -1.18] (0-0 on 2u plays)

5-2-1 on original post yesterday but had to add 3 losers :thumbsdown3:
  • 904 Cincinnati Reds +139
  • 906 Miami Marlins +208
  • 911 Arizona Diamondbacks +108
  • 914 Los Angeles Dodgers -315
  • 919 Chicago White Sox -135
  • 922 Tampa Bay Rays -172
  • 926 Houston Astros -1½ -170
  • 925 Los Angeles Angels/Houston Astros Under 9 +105
  • 930 Cleveland Indians -195
Mets 0-7 on Friday this year when Degrom starts
CLE 5-1 on Friday w/Bieber starts this year
Sept starts last 3 years: Happ 11-2, Morton 10-2, Zimmermann 2-9

 
Chasing the line was 3-1 Thursday and 17-11 +13.2% ROI last 7 days

Sept Record
SU:43-32 (1.39, 57.3%) avg line: -141.7 / 116.4 on / against: +$845 / -$1,360 ROI: +6.5% / -12.7%

2019 Record
SU:384-245 (1.14, 61.0%) avg line: -142.5 / 124.0 on / against: +$11,425 / -$14,362 ROI: +11.0% / -17.7%

Today: HOU

View attachment 43052
 
Last edited:
Chasing the total

Under was 1-2-1 yesterday and 6-5-1 last 7 days

Unders today: HOU, LAD

View attachment 43053

Over was 1-2 yesterday and 6-6 last 7 days

Sept Record
OU:16-18-0 (0.06, 47.1%) avg total: 10.0 over / under: -$310 / -$5 ROI: -8.6% / -0.1%

2019 Record
OU:183-134-12 (1.23, 57.7%) avg total: 9.8 over / under: +$3,862 / -$6,798 ROI: +10.8% / -18.6%

Over today: CUBS

View attachment 43054
 
adds
  • 913 Colorado Rockies/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8½ -105
  • 925 Los Angeles Angels/Houston Astros Under 9 +105 making it (2u)
  • 927 Texas Rangers/Oakland Athletics Over 8½ -115
Edit...me not paying attention on HOU under and bet it again so lets make it 2u. Maybe it works out.
 
Last edited:
YTD [1226-1104 -11.23u] (17-13 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [6-6 -1.19] (0-1 on 2u plays)

Another cluster yesterday as initial picks went 6-3 but adds were 0-4
crybaby.gif

  • 954 Cincinnati Reds +122
  • 958 Milwaukee Brewers -217
  • 966 New York Yankees -1½ -160
  • 966 New York Yankees -308
  • 967 Chicago White Sox -1½ +125
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -1½ -165
  • 978 Oakland Athletics -306
  • 979 Philadelphia Phillies +150
  • 979 Philadelphia Phillies/Cleveland Indians Over 10 -105


OK I learned my lesson already, I'm not fading the berds today although I had several indicators pointing at chubs.

 
Crazy success for big favs

Here's how some big ranges have performed

View attachment 43073

But really the sweet spot is anything from -210 to -309
Record
Week
SU:16-4 (3.75, 80.0%) avg line: -253.3 / 221.3 on / against: +$610 / -$730 ROI: +12.0% / -36.5%
Month
SU:40-10 (2.88, 80.0%) avg line: -253.0 / 221.2 on / against: +$1,370 / -$1,715 ROI: +10.8% / -34.3%
This year
SU:221-57 (2.80, 79.5%) avg line: -242.9 / 214.7 on / against: +$8,610 / -$10,125 ROI: +12.8% / -36.4%
Since 2012 (7+ years)
SU:1120-353 (2.30, 76.0%) avg line: -238.4 / 209.3 on / against: +$28,765 / -$38,857 ROI: +8.2% / -26.4%

This month by day...only 4 losing days out of 20, 3 push and 13 winning days (+13.7u for month on 40-10 record)

-210 >= line > -310 and season >= 2012 and date >= today -20 and ...
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)		Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ On$ AgainstSDQL
00-0 (0.00, 0.0%)-246.7216.7$0$0date = 20190921
44-0 (4.50, 100.0%)-235.0207.5+$400-$400date = 20190920
22-0 (5.50, 100.0%)-270.0230.0+$200-$200date = 20190919
42-2 (-0.25, 50.0%)-280.0237.5-$360+$280date = 20190918
33-0 (2.33, 100.0%)-258.3228.3+$300-$300date = 20190917
11-0 (2.00, 100.0%)-250.0220.0+$100-$100date = 20190916
32-1 (5.67, 66.7%)-236.7210.0-$10-$10date = 20190915
32-1 (7.00, 66.7%)-250.0221.7-$20$0date = 20190914
43-1 (2.25, 75.0%)-257.5223.8+$10-$55date = 20190912
10-1 (-1.00, 0.0%)-300.0260.0-$300+$260date = 20190910
22-0 (3.50, 100.0%)-225.0200.0+$200-$200date = 20190909
33-0 (4.00, 100.0%)-236.7210.0+$300-$300date = 20190908
21-1 (0.50, 50.0%)-250.0220.0-$140+$110date = 20190907
31-2 (0.33, 33.3%)-270.0233.3-$460+$380date = 20190906
22-0 (2.00, 100.0%)-240.0210.0+$200-$200date = 20190905
11-0 (1.00, 100.0%)-210.0190.0+$100-$100date = 20190904
54-1 (2.20, 80.0%)-255.0224.0+$150-$180date = 20190903
55-0 (3.40, 100.0%)-262.0226.0+$500-$500date = 20190902
22-0 (3.50, 100.0%)-255.0225.0+$200-$200date = 20190901
 
mrpickem said:
YTD [1226-1104 -11.23u] (17-13 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [6-6 -1.19] (0-1 on 2u plays)

Another cluster yesterday as initial picks went 6-3 but adds were 0-4
crybaby.gif

  • 954 Cincinnati Reds +122
  • 958 Milwaukee Brewers -217
  • 966 New York Yankees -1½ -160
  • 966 New York Yankees -308
  • 967 Chicago White Sox -1½ +125
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -1½ -165
  • 978 Oakland Athletics -306
  • 979 Philadelphia Phillies +150
  • 979 Philadelphia Phillies/Cleveland Indians Over 10 -105


OK I learned my lesson already, I'm not fading the berds today although I had several indicators pointing at chubs.

Click to expand...

Winds blowing straight out to left at 15mph+ in Wrigley today...
 
Washington should be obvious but that ump is straight from hell and very hard for Stras. Will parlay him
 
inZane said:
Winds blowing straight out to left at 15mph+ in Wrigley today...
Click to expand...

The over was a gift, and the Cubbies are doing their thang again.

Up 8-7 in the ninth, with back to back homers on the first 2 pitches by Kimbrel they crashed 9-8....
 
YTD [1236-1108 -7.68u] (17-13 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [10-4 +3.55] (0-1 on 2u plays)
  • 901 New York Mets -119
  • 901 New York Mets/Cincinnati Reds Under 8½ +105
  • 908 Milwaukee Brewers -280
  • 913 Arizona Diamondbacks -110
  • 916 New York Yankees -1½ -155
  • 916 New York Yankees -302
  • 917 Seattle Mariners/Baltimore Orioles Under 9 +105
  • 920 Detroit Tigers -106
  • 924 Minnesota Twins -1½ -120
  • 924 Minnesota Twins -212
  • 927 Texas Rangers/Oakland Athletics Under 8 +100

    View attachment 43103View attachment 43104View attachment 43105
 
inZane said:
The over was a gift, and the Cubbies are doing their thang again.

Up 8-7 in the ninth, with back to back homers on the first 2 pitches by Kimbrel they crashed 9-8....
Click to expand...

Yeah, I meant to go back and play that over when the line was put out. I even noticed it at 12 but was on CFB at that time. Damn glad I laid off scrubs, would have sucked to lose like that.

On the positive side, yesterday was a rare day I profited on 3 different sports..mlb, cfb & ufc adding ~11u to the coffer. Now hoping I don't get raped by nfl..haha
 
Totals experiment has shown some definite regression over the past 7-10 days. After going over 50 days in at 60% it has only went 8-18-1 since 9/12. I believe some of this could be prevented if I eliminated all Cubs & Rox home games and I will definitely look at this soon. I stopped playing unders in COL based on this awhile back and I also have never played a Cubbie total entirely based on this.

Anyways it's is still profitable for the 62 days since I started it.

View attachment 43107
 
Favorites of -210 to -309 record

Sunday2037.7% ROI
Last 7 days16315.0% ROI
Sept 2019441110.5% ROI
Season 20192255812.7% ROI
7 years 2013-201910153247.8% ROI
 
Historical look at the "Chasing the Line" angle

Angle is...When line changes at least 25 cents from last game with same teams playing at same site. It can be the first series game as long as the last time they played was at same site and other parameter met. Also the same team has to be favored in both games. I eliminated all games lined between -105 and +105 because the +/- messed up the math in some situations.

View attachment 43131

Every season since SDQL started by season(last 6 profitable and 7 of 8)

View attachment 43133

By month all 16 years..All months show profit and Sept is 2nd highest

View attachment 43134
 
YTD [1246-1118 -10.85u] (17-13 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [1-4 -3.44] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 904 Cincinnati Reds -1½ +160
  • 906 Pittsburgh Pirates +175
  • 907 Philadelphia Phillies +166
  • 910 New York Mets -248
  • 913 Colorado Rockies +160
  • 915 Los Angeles Dodgers -200
  • 917 Minnesota Twins -1½ -145
  • 917 Minnesota Twins -224
  • 925 Cleveland Indians -1½ -155
  • 925 Cleveland Indians -245
  • 932 Kansas City Royals +143
 
adding
  • 901 Philadelphia Phillies +142
  • 915 Los Angeles Dodgers -210
  • 922 Tampa Bay Rays -125* vs New York Yankees (Any pitcher must Start Y Chirinos - R must Start)
  • 924 Texas Rangers +1½ +115
  • 927 Oakland Athletics -215
Played philly in game 1 here and game 2 w/nola earlier
 
Chasing total

Unders none yesterday and 5-9-1 last 7 days

Today - BAL & WAS(2)

Overs none yesterday and 4-6 last 7 days

Today - WAS(1)
 
YTD [1257-1124 -7.7u] (17-13 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [11-6 +3.15] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 954 Cincinnati Reds +130
  • 953 Milwaukee Brewers/Cincinnati Reds Under 9 +103
  • 968 Toronto Blue Jays -162
  • 973 Cleveland Indians -1½ -178
  • 973 Cleveland Indians -290
  • 978 Seattle Mariners +315
LYLES has been quite profitable this year after being everyone's favorite fade previous couple years
 
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