September Bases

mrmarbury said:
For the dogs...what if they open a fav of -117 or less than flip to a dog? Is this based on open or closing line? Thank you for what you do everyday...much appreciated[

QUOTE="mrpickem, post: 3595224, member: 9984"]
Absolute best ranges

For dogs, if you bet every dog when fav was less than -117 over 7 years, you would have cashed 53% of the time for 186.8u and 6.6% ROI with over 2800 games

View attachment 42910

For favs, you would have made the most money from -207 to -225, winning 75% for 101.5u and 9.9% ROI through 479 games

View attachment 42911

But for the highest ROI, you would wanna play line from -279 to -297 and win 86% for 37.8u and 16.6% ROI through only 80 games

View attachment 42912

I used the rounding function and did not try moving lines up/down manually. This is moving the line in 18 point increments and centering the results. 20 points was a little big as -200 seems to be the bookies friend so 18 worked around that number

Just for grins, I drilled down tighter to within 6 point moves and the range from -285 to -291 has won 91.4% for 23% ROI!

View attachment 42913
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]

This is based on last line recorded by SDQL, they say they update lines twice per day, so it's the line around 7pm, it could be the closing line or it may not if its a late game. They also enter overnight lines around 7 pm and daytime update around noon. Apparently it's still a work in progress as a lot of this stuff is still done manually and a bit erratic on daily games like baseball. It settles a lot more for football. But even accepting an error range of 3-5% these are still amazing numbers
 
I expect Cards to win today but this is a 17-7 day of week for Milwaukee who has a inferior but very good starter in Lyles and at 2 dollars is something of a problem. The Dodger game needs serious thought. Big day for Mets and on a 1 game sample very good for Degrom but the Dodger picture is back on good rest
 
tuck321 said:
I expect Cards to win today but this is a 17-7 day of week for Milwaukee who has a inferior but very good starter in Lyles and at 2 dollars is something of a problem. The Dodger game needs serious thought. Big day for Mets and on a 1 game sample very good for Degrom but the Dodger picture is back on good rest
Click to expand...

Flaherty best pitcher in the game right now, no reason he dont shut them down. Not really sure about Doyers motivation at this point...they may be on cruise
 
NOT MY selection ️​
White Sox vs Mariners (-115)
Projected winner = White Sox -108
Play is CHW for 1 unit and Under 9.5 for .5 units​
Basewinner Data Study
  • Dylan Cease sports a .44 BBK which is not impressive, however he has a nice 11% StS coupled with an above average GB ratio of .83, this kid has the potential to be a top talent as shown by his 11 K game vs CLE two starts ago
  • King Felix has had a long and productive career but his best days are certainly behind him. He has a decent .383 BBK but hitters are teeing off on him this year (14 HR in only 54 innings). HRs are mostly random and could indicate that a pitcher is just getting unlucky, but there is nothing in the King’s stats that indicate he’s simply unlucky. He likely has a higher than average chance of getting touched up in his outing today.
  • White Sox have a BAR on OFF of 92 vs SEA with an 87 meaning that we believe the sox to be 5% better at generating runs.
  • SEA is the worst fielding team in the league and it’s not even close. They are 3% worse than the second worst team, that’s a huge margin. It is always nice to take positions against teams which are capable of sabotaging themselves.
 
YTD [1188-1072 -8.4u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [4-5 -1.62] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 951 Los Angeles Dodgers/New York Mets Under 7½ +105
  • 954 Washington Nationals +104
  • 955 Milwaukee Brewers +1½ -160
  • 959 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies Over 13½ -110
  • 961 Miami Marlins/San Francisco Giants Under 8 -102
  • 963 Cincinnati Reds/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8½ -115
  • 971 Houston Astros -1½ -150
  • 975 Tampa Bay Rays/Los Angeles Angels Under 9 -108
  • 979 Boston Red Sox/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10½ -105
 
Chasing the line 3-3 yesterday and 12-14 last 7 days

Today: TOR, MIL, MIA, OAK, KC

Chasing the total

Under was 0-2 yesterday and 5-5 last 7 days

Under today: CLE

Over was 1-1 yesterday and 6-4 last 7 days

Overs today: SL, CUBS, PHI, TEX, DET
 
two more...
  • 958 Chicago Cubs -225
  • 965 New York Yankees -1½ -129

starter = Chad Green and season = 2019
SU:11-2 (1.46, 84.6%) avg line: -163.3 / 147.7 on / against: +$810 / -$855 ROI: +37.9% / -63.8%
RL:9-4 (0.65, 69.2%) avg line: -118.8 / -101.2 on / against: +$545 / -$660 ROI: +32.4% / -42.3%

View attachment 42946
 
YTD [1196-1074 -3.81u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [8-2-1 +4.59] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 903 Washington Nationals -138
  • 910 Arizona Diamondbacks -210
  • 909 Miami Marlins/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 -110
  • 911 Baltimore Orioles/Detroit Tigers Under 9 -105
  • 914 Minnesota Twins -1½ -130
  • 914 Minnesota Twins -236
  • 916 Oakland Athletics -282

View attachment 42951

Huge favs have been very good all year and the song remains the same in Sept as favs over 170 have cashed 79% for 11.7% ROI and 16.4% ROI on RL this month. (10-5 over the weekend was a little below average but 5-1 yesterday as Sundsay is always the best day to lay the chalk)

View attachment 42953


 
Under in Washington and Cards is very likely. Both Starters are very good on 4. Hudson is actually better on 4 than Stras which is not easy.
Twins seem likely and Oakland seems very likely.
A interesting possibility is Colorado
 
Decent night for the model. I am shocked that I have used this model to select every MLB game since May 1 and actually have shown a profit of over 1% ROI. That is pretty tough when you play every single game. Also the Value plays are up 20.6u for 11.85% ROI on the year. I never really thought this model would perform this well over the duration. Maybe just a lucky year and there is still 2 weeks left to tank...but it's been fun
:cheers3:

View attachment 42955
 
tuck321 said:
Have looked at the Days. Washington 5-7 Cards 12-2
Click to expand...

Yes Cards are league best on Monday and SL has the 3rd best record in the league behind HOU and OAK since the break. However Hudson has likely been lucky as his 1.45 whip and less than 2:1 K:BB ratio indicates. Stras is proven money, pitches well on the road and has been very hot lately...hence the road chalk. Two of the more profitable teams and starters this year but I'll take my chances with WAS.

In Sept games last 5+ years road teams when line is within 30 cents of zero and total under 9 have been solid profit. Reasoning is home value overated here with 2 good pitchers in late season action.

View attachment 42956

635648798992082669-BEST-Britt-McHenry-4.jpg
 
Huge chalk pays off. This year after April(may take the book a month to sort out team strength) favorites laying 200 or more have won over 80% of the times for an excellent 12.7% ROI. If you bet to win $100 on every game this year starting on May 1 that was laying at least -200, you would be up $11, 475 or 115 units!

View attachment 42959

From pic above you can see last 8 days were 23-5. Sept has long been a good month for huge chalk because so many teams have packed it in. This year by month you see that August was the best month but Sept is on pace to be a close 2nd,
View attachment 42960

Last 3 years by month
View attachment 42961

Last 7 years by month
View attachment 42962

SDQL only goes back 16 years and the big favs did not profit at all before 2012 showing loss all but 1 years of the 8 on record here. I believe it may have something to do with the proliferation of online gaming forcing competition and therefore lowering the juice. Dime lines can be found all over and nickle lines are even available at times(I take advantage on 5dimes nickle lines overnight until 8am daily)

Heres -200 or more favs by year for 16 years. This year is the best ever so it's no surprise we have seen record high lines as the book is trying to price it high enough to get more doggie action
View attachment 42963
 
YTD [1200-1077 -4.19u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [4-3 -0.38] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 952 Atlanta Braves -170
  • 951 Philadelphia Phillies/Atlanta Braves Under 10 -109
  • 959 New York Mets -144
  • 959 New York Mets/Colorado Rockies Over 13½ -110
  • 961 Miami Marlins +162
  • 961 Miami Marlins/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 -105
  • 972 Houston Astros -1½ -140
  • 974 Oakland Athletics -250
  • 975 Seattle Mariners +125
  • 975 Seattle Mariners/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9 -105
  • 977 San Francisco Giants/Boston Red Sox Over 10½ -105
  • 979 Tampa Bay Rays +117
View attachment 42971

 
Betting against Arizona with that ump is very simply totally insane. You probably should be betting under as well
 
tuck321 said:
Betting against Arizona with that ump is very simply totally insane. You probably should be betting under as well
Click to expand...

Well I already bet it. but I did take under as well. Smith is decent starters well both starters are pretty good so the under definitely works.

You were spot on yesterday with SL and UN good job
 
adds
  • 957 Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs Over 7½ -110
  • 964 New York Yankees -1½ -150
  • 970 Minnesota Twins -1½ -110
  • 971 Texas Rangers/Houston Astros Over 8 -108
Hot-Minnesota-Twins-fan-girl-2014-MLB-Team-Preview.jpg
 
Chasing the line
No plays yesterday and 14-15 last 7 days
For Sept this year it has been 33-27 +2.2% ROI. Historically 7 years of Sept has 5.1% ROI

Today has 6 at this time: HOU, KC, SD, CIN, MIA, CHW

View attachment 42977
 
YTD [1209-1083 -2.02u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [9-6-1 +2.17] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 901 Washington Nationals -156
  • 901 Washington Nationals/St. Louis Cardinals Under 7½ -108
  • 906 Arizona Diamondbacks -158
  • 908 Atlanta Braves -142
  • 914 Oakland Athletics -230
  • 915 Los Angeles Angels/New York Yankees Over 10 -111
  • 916 New York Yankees -280
  • 920 Cleveland Indians -290
  • 923 Texas Rangers/Houston Astros Over 8½ -115
  • 926 Pittsburgh Pirates -112
  • 929 Tampa Bay Rays/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 8½ -115
I am betting more Sept games this year than in recent years as I have found some decent trends for late season totals and big faves. Bear in mind my unit value is just over half of my before Sept bases. Also I always just risk 1u so the big chalk isn't big risk, just low return. For instance if my unit was $50 I would have $50 to get $17.85 on NYY today. I have bet risk value only for the last several years and I really think it help manage your roll and reward dogs or low chalk.
:shake:
 
Its reasonable to assume Max wins but that game could be close. If Wieters is catching it could be very dangerous. Tumpane has a ERA with Wainwright of .75 and Wainwright in the day 1.87
Tumpane 3-3 with home dogs this season
Just looked Max with Tumpane 3.50 ERA 18 innings
Max is better on 4
 
Last edited:
Lester is a big favorite today on 4 days rest maybe they can force the win but over looks better
 
tuck321 said:
Its reasonable to assume Max wins but that game could be close. If Wieters is catching it could be very dangerous. Tumpane has a ERA with Wainwright of .75 and Wainwright in the day 1.87
Tumpane 3-3 with home dogs this season
Just looked Max with Tumpane 3.50 ERA 18 innings
Max is better on 4
Click to expand...

Are you on Waino tuckster
 
adds...
  • 903 New York Mets/Colorado Rockies Under 13 -110
  • 911 Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs Over 10 +100
  • 922 Minnesota Twins -1½ -135
  • 921 Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins Under 10½ -110
  • 925 Seattle Mariners/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9½ -105
  • 927 San Francisco Giants/Boston Red Sox Under 10 -110
totally... :cool:

1568786080349.png
 
Interesting record history in some line ranges...

View attachment 42995

It is sorted by ROI over 7+ years since 2012. Also shows how it did just this year, this month and week

The only range that showed a profit for dogs was the very smallest dog when fav was -105 to -109. Even though it's ahead 8.9% ROI since '12, it's still a loser this year. Most all the others have stayed true to form this year except 2 spots with very low samples. All my tracking was off favorite numbers.
 
YTD [1215-1093 -8.86u] (17-12 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [6-10-1 -6.84] (0-1 on 2u plays)
  • 952 Atlanta Braves -150
  • 951 Philadelphia Phillies/Atlanta Braves Under 8½ -110
  • 953 San Diego Padres +147
  • 953 San Diego Padres/Milwaukee Brewers Under 8½ -105
  • 961 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians Under 8½ +100
  • 964 Minnesota Twins -1½ -135
  • 964 Minnesota Twins -240
  • 967 San Francisco Giants/Boston Red Sox Under 9 -105

 
adds
  • 956 Chicago Cubs +101
  • 953 San Diego Padres/Milwaukee Brewers Over 8½ -115
  • 955 St. Louis Cardinals/Chicago Cubs Under 7 +105
mle1oc62ehn31.jpg
 
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