September Bases

YTD [1153-1032 -8.31u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [2-8 -6.05] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 951 Arizona Diamondbacks/Cincinnati Reds Under 8½ +100
  • 954 Pittsburgh Pirates +125
  • 963 San Francisco Giants/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 9½ +100
  • 964 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -120
  • 971 Cleveland Indians/Minnesota Twins Under 9½ -110
  • 978 Oakland Athletics -1½ -135
  • 979 Kansas City Royals +103
View attachment 42748

 
a few more...
  • 959 Washington Nationals +120
  • 957 Philadelphia Phillies/New York Mets Over 8½ -110
  • 972 Minnesota Twins -135
 
Chasing the line was 0-4 last night, so I have decided to make a small change in my implementation. I am only going to use games where the line moves at least 25 cents. With this new parameter it was 0-3 last night and 13-9 for the month. For 7 years it has won 59.5% with ROI of 6.7% almost 4000 plays. The Sept numbers are slightly less, but still ROI of 5.5%

HOU, SF, TB are picks for today

View attachment 42772
 
YTD [1157-1038 -10.92u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [4-6 -2.61] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 903 Philadelphia Phillies/New York Mets Under 8 -104
  • 905 Washington Nationals/Atlanta Braves Under 8 +100
  • 912 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -110
  • 918 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +100
  • 922 Minnesota Twins +156
  • 924 Houston Astros -1½ -200
  • 926 Oakland Athletics -1½ -145
View attachment 42784


​
 
Every favorite has moved 20-45 cents today except NYY who opened +105 and now -115

Model good overall yesterday but value plays went 1-2

Every game today except BOS shows negative value for the favs...the man makes us pay

View attachment 42813
 
Chasing the line 2-2 yesterday and 19-12 for Sept

No plays today

Chasing the total

Under went 1-1 yesterday and 7-3 for Sept

PHI & BOS unders both qualify today

View attachment 42814

Over 0-1 yesterday and 5-10 for Sept

No plays today
 
gonna roll these 3 tots
  • 955 Arizona Diamondbacks/New York Mets Over 7½ -105
  • 957 Pittsburgh Pirates/San Francisco Giants Over 7½ -110
  • 961 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox Under 9½ -105
View attachment 42822
 
YTD [1168-1051 -5.88u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [7-1 +5.03] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 902 Philadelphia Phillies +150
  • 901 Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9½ -109
  • 903 Milwaukee Brewers/Miami Marlins Under 8½ +100
  • 905 Arizona Diamondbacks +122
  • 920 Chicago White Sox -109
  • 928 Minnesota Twins -1½ +135
  • 929 Cincinnati Reds -127
View attachment 42830

​
 
Chasing the line had no plays yesterday and 6-2 last 3 days (19-12 for Sept)

Today LAA, OAK, PIT, MIA, AZ are all indicated

View attachment 42836

Chasing the totals

Under went 1-0 yesterday after PHI total moved it off indicated list. 8-3 for Sept

No indicated plays today

Over had no indicated plays yesterday and 5-10 for Sept

LAA & SF overs are indicated today

View attachment 42837
 
adding
  • 904 Miami Marlins +165
  • 921 Oakland Athletics +150
  • 907 St. Louis Cardinals/Colorado Rockies Under 13½ -105
  • 909 Pittsburgh Pirates/San Francisco Giants Over 8½ -110
  • 913 New York Yankees -1½ -200
1568144965276.gif
​
 
Total experiment win another last night and now 51 days in with almost 100 picks...
58.5% winners, +14u and 14.3% ROI
Pretty solid performance, wish I would have found it earlier in the year to have a larger sample size to evaluate.

View attachment 42849
 
Possibilities...

ATL/PHI Over 9.5 - The ball was flying last night in philly and its another hot and humid night with a slight breeze out to center. Eflin was rocked by ATL this year pitching 5.2 innings and giving up 17 runs (12 earned). ATL roster is hitting a career .367 against him with 6 doubles and 7 HR with those homers coming from 6 different players. Although he’s pitched okay since becoming a starter again those 3 solid starts have come against the Mets twice and the marlins once. Keuchel on the other hand has only given up 2 runs in his last 5 starts but he’s given up 39 base runners in those starts (Mets X2 , Marlins, white Sox, and a currently slumping Nats offense). I think this really shapes up for an over.
CIN - Sonny has been arguably the best pitcher since the break and he is going up against the Mariners with Marco gonzalez who’s given up 11 (9 earned) in his last two. Enough said.
 
adds
  • 954 Miami Marlins +130
  • 970 Los Angeles Angels +127
  • 951 Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9½ -115
  • 957 St. Louis Cardinals/Colorado Rockies Under 13½ -110
  • 973 Oakland Athletics/Houston Astros Over 10½ -115
View attachment 42860
 
YTD [1176-1062 -7.84u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [1-6-1 -5.09] (0-0 on 2u plays)
Yesterday was pretty screwy day when O's can beat the Doyers and all favs of 150 or more lost (0-4)
  • 901 Milwaukee Brewers -131
  • 922 Houston Astros -1½ -130
  • 923 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -140
On Thursdays the Rox are 12-3 over the total whil Reds are 2-14 on total
View attachment 42866



@T-Rex sorry but she's an unknown pintrest post
 
adds
  • 904 New York Mets -136
  • 905 St. Louis Cardinals/Colorado Rockies Under 13 -110
  • 913 New York Yankees -1½ -140
  • 915 Kansas City Royals/Chicago White Sox Under 8½ -110
  • 929 New York Yankees -1½ -178
1568306875940.jpg
 
YTD [1181-1064 -6.35u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [5-2-1 +1.49] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  1. 957 Milwaukee Brewers +118
  2. 957 Milwaukee Brewers/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 -110
  3. 961 Cincinnati Reds -112
  4. 964 San Francisco Giants -138
  5. 965 New York Yankees -1½ -125
  6. 969 Minnesota Twins -1½ +130
  7. 969 Minnesota Twins -117
 
Chasing the total 5-3 last night and 13-14 last 7 days

No plays indicated today

Chasing the total

Under 1-2 last night and 8-3-1 last 7 days

Over 1-0 last night and 5-6 last 7 days

No totals indicated today
 
YTD [1184-1067 -6.78u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [3-3-2 -0.43] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 903 Atlanta Braves/Washington Nationals Over 10 -115
  • 908 St. Louis Cardinals -190
  • 907 Milwaukee Brewers/St. Louis Cardinals Under 7½ -105
  • 911 San Diego Padres -108
  • 914 San Francisco Giants -1½ +110
  • 913 Miami Marlins/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ -105
  • 915 New York Yankees -1½ -165
  • 921 Houston Astros/Kansas City Royals Over 9½ +100
 
So I analyzed 7 years worth of ML ranges and found the following
The only range for dogs that has shown a profit is +115 or less 5.5% ROI
The vast majority of games are between -115 & -145 show no consistent profit either way
The favs have been profitable in several ranges but by far the real money maker has been the -210 to -250 range

View attachment 42908

View attachment 42909

Also I checked it by month and the big favs do best in Aug but just as good in Sept as any other month over the past 7 years

-210 >= line >= -250 and season >= 2013 and ...
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)		Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ On$ AgainstOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)		Avg Total$ Over$ UnderSDQL
1511-4 (1.13, 73.3%)-224.3199.3+$205-$3109-5-1 (1.07, 64.3%)7.3+$370-$490month = 10
185132-53 (1.77, 71.4%)-227.5200.2+$1,260-$2,70089-89-6 (0.59, 50.0%)8.2-$708-$855month = 9
224180-44 (2.59, 80.4%)-226.5200.8+$8,115-$9,230106-107-11 (0.67, 49.8%)8.5-$1,119-$862month = 8
160115-45 (1.89, 71.9%)-226.3200.8+$1,315-$2,46078-71-11 (0.64, 52.3%)8.7+$35-$1,553month = 7
148106-42 (2.01, 71.6%)-226.9201.8+$1,060-$2,13064-80-4 (-0.21, 44.4%)8.5-$2,334+$1,093month = 6
11080-30 (2.29, 72.7%)-225.6199.4+$1,250-$2,06550-57-2 (0.44, 46.7%)8.3-$1,275+$359month = 5
11385-28 (1.76, 75.2%)-225.6199.5+$2,123-$2,85558-52-3 (0.58, 52.7%)8.1+$212-$1,182month = 4
54-1 (2.40, 80.0%)-214.0193.0+$190-$2103-2-0 (1.10, 60.0%)8.5+$80-$140month = 3
 
Absolute best ranges

For dogs, if you bet every dog when fav was less than -117 over 7 years, you would have cashed 53% of the time for 186.8u and 6.6% ROI with over 2800 games

View attachment 42910

For favs, you would have made the most money from -207 to -225, winning 75% for 101.5u and 9.9% ROI through 479 games

View attachment 42911

But for the highest ROI, you would wanna play line from -279 to -297 and win 86% for 37.8u and 16.6% ROI through only 80 games

View attachment 42912

I used the rounding function and did not try moving lines up/down manually. This is moving the line in 18 point increments and centering the results. 20 points was a little big as -200 seems to be the bookies friend so 18 worked around that number

Just for grins, I drilled down tighter to within 6 point moves and the range from -285 to -291 has won 91.4% for 23% ROI!

View attachment 42913
 
For the dogs...what if they open a fav of -117 or less than flip to a dog? Is this based on open or closing line? Thank you for what you do everyday...much appreciated[

QUOTE="mrpickem, post: 3595224, member: 9984"]
Absolute best ranges

For dogs, if you bet every dog when fav was less than -117 over 7 years, you would have cashed 53% of the time for 186.8u and 6.6% ROI with over 2800 games

View attachment 42910

For favs, you would have made the most money from -207 to -225, winning 75% for 101.5u and 9.9% ROI through 479 games

View attachment 42911

But for the highest ROI, you would wanna play line from -279 to -297 and win 86% for 37.8u and 16.6% ROI through only 80 games

View attachment 42912

I used the rounding function and did not try moving lines up/down manually. This is moving the line in 18 point increments and centering the results. 20 points was a little big as -200 seems to be the bookies friend so 18 worked around that number

Just for grins, I drilled down tighter to within 6 point moves and the range from -285 to -291 has won 91.4% for 23% ROI!

View attachment 42913
[/QUOTE]
 
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