September Bases

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Well I guess I finished weak, losing nearly 18u over the last 4 days to finish the year down 4.6u. It's been a real roller coaster as I was twice up well over 20u and almost hit 30 in July. Early June I hit season low around -15. This was for my posted picks, I still made plenty other plays that don't apply. It's been a fun season with tons and tons of action. I probably could have cut down on my plays and maybe made more profit, but I love the action and really it's more entertainment for me than trying to get rich or make a living.

This will be my last daily randoms post as I really bet very little baseball in Sept. It's just historically I have been hurt so bad in Sept. Plus football is here and I will devote more time to that.

My model actually did ok for the year(Since May 1 when started) although it has give back some profit over last couple weeks. I will continue updating it and posting it, although I'm not going to be playing many games at all model or otherwise. I just want to monitor success for Sept.

I will still post the totals experiment and the chasing the line angle just because these are new and I want to see how they perform in September.

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Thanks for the posts, it's been a good ride. Looking forward to your football picks...

:cheers3:
 
Trying to analyze historical data on the chasing angle.

I use the last 7 years including 2019 so all the included data below is from 2013-2019

Chasing the line seems to do ok in SEPT although win % down from 59% to 57.8%
ROI +7.6% before Sept and +4.6% in Sept...still respectable with sample over 800 games for Sept

View attachment 42601

Chasing the total gives mixed results
The unders have fell from 58.6% winners to only 52% or basically even

View attachment 42602

The overs actually has performed a little better in Sept going from 55.1% wins to 55.9%

View attachment 42604

So I will continue monitoring and maybe throwing some very small bets on the overs/sides. I'm curious if it continues to perform, or regresses.

I will try to post these around noon.
 
Mr. P, your effort is outstanding! Always enjoy taking a look at your threads. BOL in the football this season. Oh and least i forget, appreciate the diversionary eye candy :tiphat:
 
ok, no other action so I'm playing a few
  • 953 Cincinnati Reds/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -115
  • 966 New York Yankees -128
  • 971 Cleveland Indians +183
  • 974 Kansas City Royals -124
  • 979 Chicago White Sox/Atlanta Braves Under 8½ +100
  • 982 St. Louis Cardinals -106 (Game 2)
Hit or miss all these a reduced to aprox 1/2 the amount of everything so far
 
Chasing the total

Unders went 1-1 last night and 5-3 last 7 days

Qualifying today: LAA & TOR

Bear in mind this has been basically even since 2013, but this shows Aug-Sept since '13 and it's decent

View attachment 42608

Overs have had no plays last 2 nights but are 4-5 last 7 days

Today we have CUBS and Snakes

Again this include AUG-SEPT since 2013

View attachment 42609
 
I'm chasing the line risking 20 a pop, had already played against oak and tb so I didn't play them, played the rest from previous post..not the unders. Big lines I layed stick because RL performs almost as well
TicketAccepted DateRiskTo WinStatusWager
578345361-19/1/19 12:36pm$20.16$16.80Pending9/1/19 2:20pm MLB Baseball 955 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs Over 9 -120* (G Gonzalez - L must Start T Chatwood - R must Start)
578345361-29/1/19 12:36pm$20.03$19.08Pending9/1/19 4:10pm MLB Baseball 961 Los Angeles Dodgers/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 10 -105* (R Stripling - R must Start A Young - L must Start)
578345361-39/1/19 12:36pm$20.00$24.60Pending9/1/19 5:10pm MLB Baseball 979 Chicago White Sox +123* vs Atlanta Braves (L Giolito - R must Start J Teheran - R must Start)
578345361-49/1/19 12:36pm$19.72$11.60Pending9/1/19 1:07pm Reduced Baseball 967 Houston Astros -1½ -170* vs Toronto Blue Jays (J Verlander - R must Start W Font - R must Start)
578345361-59/1/19 12:36pm$20.00$16.00Pending9/1/19 1:10pm Reduced Baseball 969 Minnesota Twins -1½ -125* vs Detroit Tigers (M Pineda - R must Start S Turnbull - R must Start)
 
YTD [1136-1012 -3.09u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [4-2 +1.46] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 901 New York Mets -110
  • 913 Minnesota Twins -1½ -135
Lines are way high today. I like ATL, LAD, TB but not at them prices!
trump_emoji_disappointed.png


View attachment 42620

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I'm in Jacksonville Florida and we got a monster of a storm coming up the coast. If anyone is even questioning whether to evacuate, DO IT! This is the most powerful storm ever in the Atlantic Basin and nothing to play with. I live 20 miles inland but on the St Johns river, so there is concern. I may evacuate tomorrow morning as I have done everything I can to secure my properties. Everybody try and be as safe as possible, Dorian is nothing to play with.

IDHdORZ.jpg
 
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  • Not seeing a lot of doggy value today, but the Gints are desperate and will still play hard for Bochy's last stretch. Plus the Cards have played a shit ton of ball in the last couple days. +170 is good value and very tempting....
  • Several of these favorites are just very overpriced, probably because favs have been crushing. ATL 260, CLE 225, Cubs 295 are all way overprice...so is St Loo at 185...imho
  • ATL is 37-16 over the total(21-6 @home) in inter-league games last 3 years
  • SL is 40-16 vs teams with losing records in 2nd half since last year +26% ROI
 
mrpickem said:
I'm in Jacksonville Florida and we got a monster of a storm coming up the coast. If anyone is even questioning whether to evacuate, DO IT! This is the most powerful storm ever in the Atlantic Basin and nothing to play with. I live 20 miles inland but on the St Johns river, so there is concern. I may evacuate tomorrow morning as I have done everything I can to secure my properties. Everybody try and be as safe as possible, Dorian is nothing to play with.

IDHdORZ.jpg
Click to expand...

Agree. This thing looks to appear to hug the coast all the way up Florida. Be safe.
 
Chasing the line..

I'm only including Sept games in the history since 2013 since I believe Sept is a completely different story than the rest of the season. Still shows as a winner but ROI is only 4.8% for Sept games

Also 9 games show up here but I see at least 4 of them that the line has moved where they wont qualify once line updated.

Once lines updated the qualifiers look to be: TOR, MIL, SL, PHI & NYY.. M's are real close and may make it or not
View attachment 42648
 
Chasing total

Unders were 2-0 Sunday but only returning 1.1% ROI in Sept games over 7 years so not really worth a play imo

Nats under is indicated today

View attachment 42649

Overs were only 1-2 Sunday but have performed well over the 7 years winning 55.7% of the time for 7.1% ROI in Sept games

ATL, AZ & TB(Game 1) all qualify today

View attachment 42650
 
more plays...
  • 951 Philadelphia Phillies -105
  • 956 Washington Nationals -133
  • 959 San Diego Padres/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9½ -105
  • 958 St. Louis Cardinals -280
  • 966 Cleveland Indians -280
  • 972 Kansas City Royals -135
  • 979 Seattle Mariners +225
  • 964 New York Yankees -1½ -160
  • 966 Cleveland Indians -1½ -150
  • 975 Toronto Blue Jays/Atlanta Braves Over 11 +100
​
 
YTD [1142-1020 -6.75u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [5-7 -3.57] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 902 Washington Nationals -114
  • 909 San Diego Padres/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8½ -110
  • 911 Colorado Rockies/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 9½ -110
  • 918 Cleveland Indians -275
  • 922 Kansas City Royals -200
  • 921 Detroit Tigers/Kansas City Royals Under 9½ +102
 
More bullshit...

  • Mets have cooled off and Nats are home, a better team, with a better starter (Sanchez is having a better year than Wheeler). WAS 16-4 L20 is one of the hottest teams in the league and battling to win division as well. At -115 this looks like a steal. Almost too good to be true
  • Leaning Tex +1.5, Lynn has cashed a lot this year and he's having one of his best years. NYY is the better team, but at only -140 with the better starter and getting 1.5 on the road is very tempting.
  • PHI looks good on the surface. Bauer has been lost on the mound lately, jumping up to a 9.17 ERA and 1-5 record in the past 7 with 14 runs given up on 15 hits in only 7 innings in his past 2 starts. Philly bats are hot and Nola looking good. They lost Nolas last start when the pen blew it, but they're cooking so far vs the in this series reds (6inn 2 hits 10k). Looking for sweep
  • White sox F5 u5 -130 (Ivan Nova has the ability to be a shutdown pitcher. Bieber has been great for the Indians. I also considered White Sox F5 ML and ML, not sure if I'll pull the trigger. It would be a small bet.)
 
YTD [1146-1022 -5.95u] (17-11 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [4-2 +0.8] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 959 Washington Nationals -108
  • 963 Detroit Tigers/Kansas City Royals Over 9½ -105
  • 970 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -105
  • 971 Minnesota Twins/Boston Red Sox Over 11½ +102
View attachment 42679

​
 
Top 20 starters this year based on their performance.

Verlander, JustinHOU
Clevinger, MikeCLE
Yarbrough, RyanTBR
Cole, GerritHOU
deGrom, JacobNYM
Scherzer, MaxWSN
Soroka, MikeATL
Morton, CharlieTBR
Strasburg, StephenWSN
Gray, SonnyCIN
Greinke, ZackHOU
Bieber, ShaneCLE
Montas, FrankieOAK
Ryu, Hyun-JinLAD
Giolito, LucasCHW
Buehler, WalkerLAD
Corbin, PatrickWSN
Guerra, JuniorMIL
Kershaw, ClaytonLAD
Castillo, LuisCIN
 
adding
  • 961 Chicago White Sox +163
  • 954 St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +105
  • 966 Oakland Athletics -1½ +110
 
Totals experiment 2-1 last night

One play today in MIA over, but 2 are exactly 2 run difference. My parameter was over 2 runs difference but I looked back in the time I been doing this there were 5 times it was exactly 2 runs difference and it went 4-1! I'm sticking with over 2 but SD and NYM over may be good as well... ;)

View attachment 42724
 
onboard for a few more
  • 919 Toronto Blue Jays +165
  • 924 Minnesota Twins -159
  • 905 Philadelphia Phillies/New York Mets Over 8½ +100
  • 929 Kansas City Royals/Miami Marlins Over 8½ +102
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