Saturday's picks

[divol]

GSW +6 - 6 units stake

There are number of games I like for tonight and I will start with the Warriors that will be playing B2B game in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State><st1lace>New Jersey</st1lace></st1:State>, coming after an OT loss in <st1:City><st1lace>Toronto</st1lace></st1:City>.
If it wasn’t B2B or at least wasn’t an OT game, it would have been 9 units stake, as the line here is simply off the hook and got no connection with reality whatsoever.
Nets are mediocre team at best this season. They made a great win in <st1:State><st1lace>Washington</st1lace></st1:State>, but I still have very little faith in a team that presents a frontline of Boone and I don’t know who suppose to be their PF in the starting line up, the 6’6” Simmons or the Chinese nuddle, Yi. Either way, GSW that got their biggest problems in that area, will suddenly feel superior in the paint of all the sudden.
Carter and Harris backcourt is great of course (for a lottery team that is), but against Jackson and Maggette (GSW got serious problem in the PG so we can see some weird PG options) I wouldn’t bet on the Nets duo.
If we add Harrington who was hot against <st1:City><st1lace>Toronto</st1lace></st1:City> at just like Yi, can hit from behind the arc we got a truly warriors team that gave both Raptors and the Hornets, both far superior teams than Nets or Warriors without Ellis, the run for their money.
Two problems I do have with this bet. One is OT of course. Biedrins and Harrington played 46 minutes each, <st1:City><st1lace>Jackson</st1lace></st1:City> 45 minutes and Maggette 44 minutes. With no real bench to cover, they will have to repeat those minutes tonight and I do afraid that GSW simply will run out of gas. But, I remember GSW coming through similar situations last season and they did manage to do the work. It was with wider roster, but still, the line should hold here.
Second problem is the 9 – 1 ATS record that Nets hold on the Warriors, including two ATS wins last season. But here is also the bright point. Nets held the line both times last season, but still lost by 2 points in <st1:City><st1lace>Oakland</st1lace></st1:City> and won by 5 points only in NJ.
I believe that the OT and the depleted roster should limit our stake on this game, but it still got some value (the line is still high by 2 points at least, if not 3 I believe).

The other games I'm tempted to take, but rather wait for the line to drop by point or half point at least are Orlando against the Kings (Martin and Udrih made last night 10 turnover and 2 assists and that is amazing simpy). The second bet is Dallas that owned Wolves the last few seasons and I doubt we will see Wolves with 2 - 0 record and Dallas with 0 - 2 record after tonight's game.

Want to take the Lakers so much (my team after all), but the line is too high and with Carmelo returning, it can go wrong for the Lakers...
If the odds on Denver will get higher, maybe take them ML.

 

[divol]

Dallas -4 - 7 units stake
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
My second bet is <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> that are coming to <st1:State><st1lace>Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State>. <st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> got owned in <st1:State><st1lace>Texas</st1lace></st1:State> derby by the Rockets, losing by 10 points 112 – 102. Still, I have to say that I saw mostly positive things for <st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City>, at least as positive as it can be in a lost home game. <st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> ended the game poorly, but was leading by a nose in the end of the third quarter and above all, I really like the numbers they produced (haven’t seen the game so I go by the sheet page only). 102 points scored against <st1:City><st1lace>Houston</st1lace></st1:City> and their usually tight defense (even with Adelman in charge) is a nice score. The Mavericks trio, Kidd, Howard and Nowitzki looked ready for the season with 12 assists by Kidd, 28 points and 11 rebounds for Howard in decent shooting (11 from 19) and 36 points by Dirk, including 14 from 14 from charity stripe.
Artest and Yao killed Dallas in that game, with 30 points by Yao, 11 – 15 from the field, 13 rebounds and 2 blocks (and 8 from 8 from the line) and 29 points from Artest. I doubt that we will see the same numbers from <st1lace>Jefferson</st1lace> and Miller (maybe points, but not as it comes to percentage).
I have no doubt what so ever, if <st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> will present the same offense that they showed against <st1:City><st1lace>Houston</st1lace></st1:City>, they will win by double digits.
Wolves did the job in the end of the day against <st1:City><st1lace>Sacramento</st1lace></st1:City>, but lost their lead in the end of the game and Kings could have sent the game in the OT, needless to say that Wolves failed to cover the 5 points line. Love was decent in his NBA debut, all of the Wolves were decent over all actually, but Wolves need a good game to beat the strong teams. They need Miller and Jefferson in top form + at least one more player to play above average. I’m sure that it will happen this season and they will surprise teams that will come unready, but Dallas doesn’t want second loss in a row, especially since they understand that if last year the battle for the playoff spot was hot, this year, it can become much hotter with at least 9 teams that got playoff team materials (without including the Warriors that can be a black horse as well).
<st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> won the last 8 games against the Wolves, won the last 5 games by higher than 4 points and took the line in 4 of 5 games.
<st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> should take this one, maybe the best bet of today.

 

[divol]

Over 191.5 in Pacers - Celtics game

Just came home, the game will start in the next minute, but I took Over in Indiana. I agree 100% with Tuck. Pacers gave up their best half court offense player (O'Neal) for Ford, the human turbo. Even without Dunleavy, they got enough players to run the court and score, especially at home. Both team will go Over 90 points, at least one will reach the 100 points as well.
Over 191.5 - 4 untis stake (it's Boston after all).

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thanks for the write-ups, divol, since I'm still learning about the changed rosters (very light betting for me in the first 3 weeks). BOL tonight:cheers:

 

[divol]

One more game that I forgot to write here, but in my defense, it is only 14 points for the Magic with more than 2 minutes to play, so it's far from done deal, is Magic -9.5 that I took live in the end of the first quarter for 5 units.

 

[divol]

It's half time in Chicago and Memphis lead by 8 points. I think that Memphis are great so far and surprised everyone, but I still believe in Chicago and with 2.06 odds ML for home win?
5 units stake on Chicago at home. Go Bulls!

 

[divol]

Finally back on track. Hoping that is a good sign for the coming week

 

[J.Dynomite]

Great job Divol.. :shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

spot on w/GDS:cheers:

 

[cogenman]

good job divol, keep posting. :shake:

 

[JoJo]

:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:

And the streak are keep on coming...

 

[EddieShore]

Great call Divol, tailed you on Golden State, Dallas and Angelica Biello!

 

[divol]

Don't see any point to open speacial thread for this - Sacramento ML - 1 unit play.
Kings already broken one losing streak against Philly on a road and it happened last year, when they played without Martin and Bibby. Moore, Salmons and Udrih scored 57 points together (23 form them came from Moore). Sixers are better this year and Kings without Miller and Garcia, but Sixers already lost one game they should have one on Saturday and Kings, just like Hawks, showed great fighting spirit the first games (not counting the game against Miami) and who knows, with such great odds, worth a shot.