Funny but I didnt have a ton of confidence going into Friday cause I thought the lines were real tight . If Hous holds on looks like on sides I may go like 7-0...go figure...the important play was Boston and they won...
Cavs @ Orlando
Well Magic lost in Charlotte and Cavs spanked Sonics....I wonder what the popular side will be...?? Cavs had won 6 straight versus ORL before a late season beating in ORL to end that(Orl did take them to OT 1st meeting at home). This year for whatever reason the Cavs have not played well in B to B's going 1-4 SU & ATS.
The question is whats Nelsons availability? If you follow whats going on with ORL Hill gets alot of backend 's OFF to keep him fresh. So he should play. The Cavs are just 3-6 SU away losing 5 of 6(2-3 SU / ATS as chalk).
Before pounding the Bobcats on THURS I cited how ORL had struggled in December. Well this is looking like the spot where they again become underavlued. I am hoping Nelson returns here but how in the world is CLE favored?? It was a mere 10 days ago when ORL was laying 4 points to DET..wasnt a few days ago when ORL was favored by 1 over the Suns?? Basically ORL should be favored here as ORL is not an easy place to win a game...so anything that has Magic ++ is value to me.....The magic got overvalued then had some injuries and they had to be knockd down..
Lean: Magic +1.5 -105 & ML..
Boston @ Charlotte
Bobcats have covered 5 straight in the series including both this season. Gomes popped up on the injury list after being a DNP tonite. Allen played all 48 minutes cause he was en fuego , Jefferson and Pierce topped 40 minutes. I read alot people overly concerned bout fatigue and I just wonder if they were ever athletes or are in any kind of shape? Sure fatigue is a factor but 40 minutes of basketball doesnt mean if they play the following nite they will be flat...thats actually ridiculous...fatigue is playing 4in 5 , 5 in 7 , 8 in 12 when your logging heavy minutes in a short span and traveling from city to city on top of it.....adrenaline is a great equalizer....so we need to take it easy with the word fatigue IMO..
I am sure people will like to convince themselves DEN had a shot in the game in Boston. TRUTH is they trailed all nite. Is it shocking they made a run down 17 at half...of course not they cut it to 4 mid 4thquarter and celts pushed it back to 8..the only reason it finished on 3 was a couple strange sequences...DEN hits a 3 gets fouled misses the FT gets the board and hits another 3, and celts miss 3 of last 4 FTs where as DEN converted inbewteen.....Boston jumped on them early and even run was answered...This team is playing well but so is Charlotte with Breven Knight back and the new "old" starting lineup....both teams get 3 days off after this..
In 9 previous meetings Char was favored only once by 1 and won by 2 in ot!! I do NOT think they deserve to be favored here.....worst case scenario we should see a PK...being favored means naturally you must win and I dont see how this is anything but a coin flip...and Bos has just won 3 straight away games and 4 staright overall...Charlotte beat a shorthanded sliding team...last meeting was 92-83 Char with Knight missing and Jefferson realy not the factor he is now...
I do think these teams can score and the total has been adjusted down to 195.5 from 200 in the first meetings...Celts are 5-0 ATS in backends and have a high offensive output. Dont see why Celts cant crack a 100 and slide over..
Lean: Boston +1.5 & ML
Chicago @ Atlanta
Have to wait on a Line and JJ 's status.....Bulls have won 7 straight in the series....both teams back to back
Denver @ NYK
Very crucial is Quentin Richardson status. He left with 4 to play in the 1st Q and its not a suprise that NY went straight down after the 1st Q....he is so critical to there offense..
Lets not forget that NY went to Denver early in the season and rallied late to win SU ! So a great revenge spot ..Nuggs were -3 last year @ MSG and won by 12....I always seem to make the point that Denver and Wash are very similiar squads and we saw what WIZ did to NY...though they have better long distance bombers...
Last game of a 5 game trip for Wiz who have played poorly so expect them to be focused...Den is 2-4 SU & ATS on backends but NYK is just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS...
To me a great indicator is hopw cheap this line is Knicks were -7 at home vs ATL but Denver was -8 in ATL....so hate to fade my hometown team but have to...with Q's availability probably deciding size and strength....
Lean : Den -3-111
Memphis @ Miami
Now that Gasol is back there is a premium in Grizzlies lines that shouldnt be there . Simply cause Gasol needs time to make a difference...
For Miami Wade should play and Jason Williams who sat tonite hsould also play...Grizz 0-7 SU on backends..
We dont have a line so really no further comments...
Det @ NJN
We know Rasheed is OUT but unsure about Jefferson's status. Usually a low scoring defensive battle. My first thought was if DET was dogged hop on...Nets playing b to b and returning from Tor while DET had 2 days off and this will be just second game in a week..There is no concern about fatigue but rather NJ shorts bench...My point was rather DET should be anxious to get on the court after a loss....I am interested to see if maxiell gets some PT here...
Dallas @ NO
mavs have no bench and playing backend....Hornets have major injuries and now Chandler ha sthe FLU..which makes the under even more interesting...mavs ae 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in backends...
Really we saw what a good team will do versus a shorthanded NO squad when SA thumped however cause of the difference in benches bewteen the two I would not lay 8 points here..still Und 183 is attractive.....
Philly @ SA
If Webber misses this will get ugly..it was close to all nite in Dallas. Though we should credit Philly for that 3rd Q run but they just are to thin...
Hope for a decent 1st H and pound the Spurs 2nd Half..Spurs playing sound DEF again could and should keep Phily to about 75 points.....another Und 182...
Minny @ Milw
not sure Wolves deserve to be chalk here...bucks won last 2 they hosted in the series...but stink so far on backends while Wolves had a coupel days to figure out the collapse vs SA...maybe pry AI away from Philly but he woulnt play anyway..
Noy much of a feel for this one yet...cant se myself laying chalk though...seems like a PK game to me
Suns @ Sac
This is Suns 8th game in 12 days in 8 different cities...this is were fatigue creeps up IMO..not to mention hard fought win and backend...you had 4 Suns starters log 36+ minutes (Diaw and marion 40 something) ...Kings will have momentum from there huge comeback WIN and not to mention payback for the 25 pt loss in Phoenix w/o Artest...After being GOLD the SUNs have now dropped 2 straight ATS..and played 4 STRAIGHT UNDERS....
The Suns dont get to the line much and depend heavily on a high shooting pct...last nite only 8-31 from three and Nash was 4-8...this has dragged a team that was 40+% from the tree to now at 32% last 5 games..
The Kings had 2 days off before last nite where as the Suns seem to be playing everynite lately...they keep everyone involved and really no one topped 32 minutes...Last 5 Kings at Home have allowed less then 92 pts , they had a 3 game spurt where they allowed 108-111 but the three before that less then 92...the totals in the high scoring games were 177.5 , 185.5 , 205.5....so mostly there were light totals which is not the case here.....
Cavs @ Orlando
Well Magic lost in Charlotte and Cavs spanked Sonics....I wonder what the popular side will be...?? Cavs had won 6 straight versus ORL before a late season beating in ORL to end that(Orl did take them to OT 1st meeting at home). This year for whatever reason the Cavs have not played well in B to B's going 1-4 SU & ATS.
The question is whats Nelsons availability? If you follow whats going on with ORL Hill gets alot of backend 's OFF to keep him fresh. So he should play. The Cavs are just 3-6 SU away losing 5 of 6(2-3 SU / ATS as chalk).
Before pounding the Bobcats on THURS I cited how ORL had struggled in December. Well this is looking like the spot where they again become underavlued. I am hoping Nelson returns here but how in the world is CLE favored?? It was a mere 10 days ago when ORL was laying 4 points to DET..wasnt a few days ago when ORL was favored by 1 over the Suns?? Basically ORL should be favored here as ORL is not an easy place to win a game...so anything that has Magic ++ is value to me.....The magic got overvalued then had some injuries and they had to be knockd down..
Lean: Magic +1.5 -105 & ML..
Boston @ Charlotte
Bobcats have covered 5 straight in the series including both this season. Gomes popped up on the injury list after being a DNP tonite. Allen played all 48 minutes cause he was en fuego , Jefferson and Pierce topped 40 minutes. I read alot people overly concerned bout fatigue and I just wonder if they were ever athletes or are in any kind of shape? Sure fatigue is a factor but 40 minutes of basketball doesnt mean if they play the following nite they will be flat...thats actually ridiculous...fatigue is playing 4in 5 , 5 in 7 , 8 in 12 when your logging heavy minutes in a short span and traveling from city to city on top of it.....adrenaline is a great equalizer....so we need to take it easy with the word fatigue IMO..
I am sure people will like to convince themselves DEN had a shot in the game in Boston. TRUTH is they trailed all nite. Is it shocking they made a run down 17 at half...of course not they cut it to 4 mid 4thquarter and celts pushed it back to 8..the only reason it finished on 3 was a couple strange sequences...DEN hits a 3 gets fouled misses the FT gets the board and hits another 3, and celts miss 3 of last 4 FTs where as DEN converted inbewteen.....Boston jumped on them early and even run was answered...This team is playing well but so is Charlotte with Breven Knight back and the new "old" starting lineup....both teams get 3 days off after this..
In 9 previous meetings Char was favored only once by 1 and won by 2 in ot!! I do NOT think they deserve to be favored here.....worst case scenario we should see a PK...being favored means naturally you must win and I dont see how this is anything but a coin flip...and Bos has just won 3 straight away games and 4 staright overall...Charlotte beat a shorthanded sliding team...last meeting was 92-83 Char with Knight missing and Jefferson realy not the factor he is now...
I do think these teams can score and the total has been adjusted down to 195.5 from 200 in the first meetings...Celts are 5-0 ATS in backends and have a high offensive output. Dont see why Celts cant crack a 100 and slide over..
Lean: Boston +1.5 & ML
Chicago @ Atlanta
Have to wait on a Line and JJ 's status.....Bulls have won 7 straight in the series....both teams back to back
Denver @ NYK
Very crucial is Quentin Richardson status. He left with 4 to play in the 1st Q and its not a suprise that NY went straight down after the 1st Q....he is so critical to there offense..
Lets not forget that NY went to Denver early in the season and rallied late to win SU ! So a great revenge spot ..Nuggs were -3 last year @ MSG and won by 12....I always seem to make the point that Denver and Wash are very similiar squads and we saw what WIZ did to NY...though they have better long distance bombers...
Last game of a 5 game trip for Wiz who have played poorly so expect them to be focused...Den is 2-4 SU & ATS on backends but NYK is just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS...
To me a great indicator is hopw cheap this line is Knicks were -7 at home vs ATL but Denver was -8 in ATL....so hate to fade my hometown team but have to...with Q's availability probably deciding size and strength....
Lean : Den -3-111
Memphis @ Miami
Now that Gasol is back there is a premium in Grizzlies lines that shouldnt be there . Simply cause Gasol needs time to make a difference...
For Miami Wade should play and Jason Williams who sat tonite hsould also play...Grizz 0-7 SU on backends..
We dont have a line so really no further comments...
Det @ NJN
We know Rasheed is OUT but unsure about Jefferson's status. Usually a low scoring defensive battle. My first thought was if DET was dogged hop on...Nets playing b to b and returning from Tor while DET had 2 days off and this will be just second game in a week..There is no concern about fatigue but rather NJ shorts bench...My point was rather DET should be anxious to get on the court after a loss....I am interested to see if maxiell gets some PT here...
Dallas @ NO
mavs have no bench and playing backend....Hornets have major injuries and now Chandler ha sthe FLU..which makes the under even more interesting...mavs ae 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in backends...
Really we saw what a good team will do versus a shorthanded NO squad when SA thumped however cause of the difference in benches bewteen the two I would not lay 8 points here..still Und 183 is attractive.....
Philly @ SA
If Webber misses this will get ugly..it was close to all nite in Dallas. Though we should credit Philly for that 3rd Q run but they just are to thin...
Hope for a decent 1st H and pound the Spurs 2nd Half..Spurs playing sound DEF again could and should keep Phily to about 75 points.....another Und 182...
Minny @ Milw
not sure Wolves deserve to be chalk here...bucks won last 2 they hosted in the series...but stink so far on backends while Wolves had a coupel days to figure out the collapse vs SA...maybe pry AI away from Philly but he woulnt play anyway..
Noy much of a feel for this one yet...cant se myself laying chalk though...seems like a PK game to me
Suns @ Sac
This is Suns 8th game in 12 days in 8 different cities...this is were fatigue creeps up IMO..not to mention hard fought win and backend...you had 4 Suns starters log 36+ minutes (Diaw and marion 40 something) ...Kings will have momentum from there huge comeback WIN and not to mention payback for the 25 pt loss in Phoenix w/o Artest...After being GOLD the SUNs have now dropped 2 straight ATS..and played 4 STRAIGHT UNDERS....
The Suns dont get to the line much and depend heavily on a high shooting pct...last nite only 8-31 from three and Nash was 4-8...this has dragged a team that was 40+% from the tree to now at 32% last 5 games..
The Kings had 2 days off before last nite where as the Suns seem to be playing everynite lately...they keep everyone involved and really no one topped 32 minutes...Last 5 Kings at Home have allowed less then 92 pts , they had a 3 game spurt where they allowed 108-111 but the three before that less then 92...the totals in the high scoring games were 177.5 , 185.5 , 205.5....so mostly there were light totals which is not the case here.....
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GL
