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Saturday

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Funny but I didnt have a ton of confidence going into Friday cause I thought the lines were real tight . If Hous holds on looks like on sides I may go like 7-0...go figure...the important play was Boston and they won...

Cavs @ Orlando

Well Magic lost in Charlotte and Cavs spanked Sonics....I wonder what the popular side will be...?? Cavs had won 6 straight versus ORL before a late season beating in ORL to end that(Orl did take them to OT 1st meeting at home). This year for whatever reason the Cavs have not played well in B to B's going 1-4 SU & ATS.

The question is whats Nelsons availability? If you follow whats going on with ORL Hill gets alot of backend 's OFF to keep him fresh. So he should play. The Cavs are just 3-6 SU away losing 5 of 6(2-3 SU / ATS as chalk).

Before pounding the Bobcats on THURS I cited how ORL had struggled in December. Well this is looking like the spot where they again become underavlued. I am hoping Nelson returns here but how in the world is CLE favored?? It was a mere 10 days ago when ORL was laying 4 points to DET..wasnt a few days ago when ORL was favored by 1 over the Suns?? Basically ORL should be favored here as ORL is not an easy place to win a game...so anything that has Magic ++ is value to me.....The magic got overvalued then had some injuries and they had to be knockd down..

Lean: Magic +1.5 -105 & ML..

Boston @ Charlotte

Bobcats have covered 5 straight in the series including both this season. Gomes popped up on the injury list after being a DNP tonite. Allen played all 48 minutes cause he was en fuego , Jefferson and Pierce topped 40 minutes. I read alot people overly concerned bout fatigue and I just wonder if they were ever athletes or are in any kind of shape? Sure fatigue is a factor but 40 minutes of basketball doesnt mean if they play the following nite they will be flat...thats actually ridiculous...fatigue is playing 4in 5 , 5 in 7 , 8 in 12 when your logging heavy minutes in a short span and traveling from city to city on top of it.....adrenaline is a great equalizer....so we need to take it easy with the word fatigue IMO..

I am sure people will like to convince themselves DEN had a shot in the game in Boston. TRUTH is they trailed all nite. Is it shocking they made a run down 17 at half...of course not they cut it to 4 mid 4thquarter and celts pushed it back to 8..the only reason it finished on 3 was a couple strange sequences...DEN hits a 3 gets fouled misses the FT gets the board and hits another 3, and celts miss 3 of last 4 FTs where as DEN converted inbewteen.....Boston jumped on them early and even run was answered...This team is playing well but so is Charlotte with Breven Knight back and the new "old" starting lineup....both teams get 3 days off after this..

In 9 previous meetings Char was favored only once by 1 and won by 2 in ot!! I do NOT think they deserve to be favored here.....worst case scenario we should see a PK...being favored means naturally you must win and I dont see how this is anything but a coin flip...and Bos has just won 3 straight away games and 4 staright overall...Charlotte beat a shorthanded sliding team...last meeting was 92-83 Char with Knight missing and Jefferson realy not the factor he is now...

I do think these teams can score and the total has been adjusted down to 195.5 from 200 in the first meetings...Celts are 5-0 ATS in backends and have a high offensive output. Dont see why Celts cant crack a 100 and slide over..

Lean: Boston +1.5 & ML

Chicago @ Atlanta

Have to wait on a Line and JJ 's status.....Bulls have won 7 straight in the series....both teams back to back

Denver @ NYK

Very crucial is Quentin Richardson status. He left with 4 to play in the 1st Q and its not a suprise that NY went straight down after the 1st Q....he is so critical to there offense..

Lets not forget that NY went to Denver early in the season and rallied late to win SU ! So a great revenge spot ..Nuggs were -3 last year @ MSG and won by 12....I always seem to make the point that Denver and Wash are very similiar squads and we saw what WIZ did to NY...though they have better long distance bombers...

Last game of a 5 game trip for Wiz who have played poorly so expect them to be focused...Den is 2-4 SU & ATS on backends but NYK is just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS...

To me a great indicator is hopw cheap this line is Knicks were -7 at home vs ATL but Denver was -8 in ATL....so hate to fade my hometown team but have to...with Q's availability probably deciding size and strength....

Lean : Den -3-111


Memphis @ Miami

Now that Gasol is back there is a premium in Grizzlies lines that shouldnt be there . Simply cause Gasol needs time to make a difference...
For Miami Wade should play and Jason Williams who sat tonite hsould also play...Grizz 0-7 SU on backends..

We dont have a line so really no further comments...


Det @ NJN

We know Rasheed is OUT but unsure about Jefferson's status. Usually a low scoring defensive battle. My first thought was if DET was dogged hop on...Nets playing b to b and returning from Tor while DET had 2 days off and this will be just second game in a week..There is no concern about fatigue but rather NJ shorts bench...My point was rather DET should be anxious to get on the court after a loss....I am interested to see if maxiell gets some PT here...

Dallas @ NO

mavs have no bench and playing backend....Hornets have major injuries and now Chandler ha sthe FLU..which makes the under even more interesting...mavs ae 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in backends...

Really we saw what a good team will do versus a shorthanded NO squad when SA thumped however cause of the difference in benches bewteen the two I would not lay 8 points here..still Und 183 is attractive.....


Philly @ SA

If Webber misses this will get ugly..it was close to all nite in Dallas. Though we should credit Philly for that 3rd Q run but they just are to thin...

Hope for a decent 1st H and pound the Spurs 2nd Half..Spurs playing sound DEF again could and should keep Phily to about 75 points.....another Und 182...

Minny @ Milw

not sure Wolves deserve to be chalk here...bucks won last 2 they hosted in the series...but stink so far on backends while Wolves had a coupel days to figure out the collapse vs SA...maybe pry AI away from Philly but he woulnt play anyway..


Noy much of a feel for this one yet...cant se myself laying chalk though...seems like a PK game to me

Suns @ Sac

This is Suns 8th game in 12 days in 8 different cities...this is were fatigue creeps up IMO..not to mention hard fought win and backend...you had 4 Suns starters log 36+ minutes (Diaw and marion 40 something) ...Kings will have momentum from there huge comeback WIN and not to mention payback for the 25 pt loss in Phoenix w/o Artest...After being GOLD the SUNs have now dropped 2 straight ATS..and played 4 STRAIGHT UNDERS....

The Suns dont get to the line much and depend heavily on a high shooting pct...last nite only 8-31 from three and Nash was 4-8...this has dragged a team that was 40+% from the tree to now at 32% last 5 games..

The Kings had 2 days off before last nite where as the Suns seem to be playing everynite lately...they keep everyone involved and really no one topped 32 minutes...Last 5 Kings at Home have allowed less then 92 pts , they had a 3 game spurt where they allowed 108-111 but the three before that less then 92...the totals in the high scoring games were 177.5 , 185.5 , 205.5....so mostly there were light totals which is not the case here.....
 
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Think I play some DENVER before I go to sleep...how can they get cheaper...???

really like SAC +3 -107 , with leans on magic +1.5 , Pistons +1.5 , looking at Unders in SA , NO and over in Milw...

good nite!
 
I agree with a lot of your points Nut.

Denver -3 - Revenge and are -2 on this road trip. Gotta think Denver pulls away. Nugz just not the same on the road as at home.

Orlando +1.5 - Is Hill playing? If he is, Orlando has a shot to win this one. Although the time I fade Bron is when he goes off of a triple double.

Spurs Under - 6 in 9 for SA and I am uneasy about this one due to the offensive output this team has been putting together, but 76ers minues AI are more of an under team as well.

Sac +3 - Suns look a bit too easy -3.....
 
Here is what I thinkin / played..

~Orlando Magic +1.5 -105 & ML (Leans) , thought about and Under if stayed above 185 but not interested now.
~Have to look at the Bulls game but hard not lean that way if JJ is OUT. Though they didnt play so well versus a shorthanded NO team.
~ Charlotte opened -2 got moved to -1.5 shortly after Bostons win over Denver. As I said I do lean Boston but far from anything concrete , still thinking about it. The total has dropped another half sort of in limbo on this but leaning Over...(cause of the Celts previous 3 away)
~Gonna checkout the Heat - Grizz game and injuries/health situation....really not quick to jump on anything here but 183 is way to low...will be looking to play the over trying to see where this line goes...
~In NY played Denver Nuggets -3 -110 (XLarge) cause as I said this was going nowhere but up....the question is how much do I keep ...would say worst case this is listed as Large play.....have to think Under 214 is attractive...see the problem is Boston and NYk are getting similiar numbers but are vastily different teams...with Q being out possibly I wouldnt expect a 110-110 type game...
~Still have to see if I will get involved in the Dal/NO game but after thinking about it the total is marginal either way so no real feel. It could go either way but NO cannot defend its a matter of how competitive...
~Do we really want to get involved with SA @ -16...., made a (Small) play on the Under 182-110...
~Well I just saw that DET went to -1 -105.....I made (Medium) play on Pistons +1.5 -105 ...as I said previously I was playing anything that had DET dogged cause I did not expect it...will still play DET and might add to it...
~Still in limbo on the Bucks game and lean towards Over 190.5
~ Not touching a total in Phoenix as the Suns have hit an UNDER run now...should have listed to myself last nite.....anyway we know I lean towards Sac +3 -103 ML +134 but trying to get some extra value...


That is my 11am update...should be clear what I am thinking for now.
 
Played :


Kings +3.5 -110 (Large) ML +133 (Small)
Under 221 -105 (Medium)
Over 183 -110 Heat (Large)

Still working on the rest of the leans....
 
So last update for awhile:(leans )

Magic +1.5 +102 , ML +114(pretty definite play squeezing best possible line)
Over 193 -105 Atlanta
Celts +2 +100 , ML +121 . Ov 194.5 -110
Und 214 +100 NYK
Und 185.5 +100 NJN
Bucks +2 -110 , ML +113, Ov 190.5 -105



Shit just saw kings total down to 217.5...!
 
xpression syst_m said:
GL Nut, swamped in college hoops today


Thanks bro...trying to stay away from NCAAB for now...played some I just thought stood out Wisky , Ohio State , and Over Zaga 1st half...
 
Tonite:

Sides(6-0 +14.49)
Magic +2 -107 (Medium) Win +2.00 ML +112(Small) Win +1.12
Celtics +3 -110 (Medium) Win +2.00 ML +129 (value)Win +0.32
Nuggets -3 -110 (XLarge) Win +3.90 (Win +5 lost -1. middle)
Pistons +1.5 -109 (Medium) Win +2.00
Bucks +2 -110 (Medium) Win +2.00 ML +107 (Value)+0.27
Kings +3.5 -110 (XLarge) ML +133 (Small) Pending
Hawks +4 -110(small) Win +1.00 ML +160(value)Loss -0.12

Totals(3-1 +7.93)
Over 194.5 -110 Charlotte (Large) Win +4.00
Over 191.5 -107 Chicago (Small) Win +1.00
Over 183 -110 Memphis (Large)Win +4.00
Under 214.5 -107 NYK (Small) Loss -1.07
Under 182 -110 Philly (Small) Off...No Play!!!! XXXXXXXX
Under 221 -105 Sac (Medium) Pending

Lean:
Ov 194 -102 Milw

Team Totals (5-0 +6.02)
Over 94 -112 Atlanta (Medium)Win +2.00
Over 96.5 +102 Boston (Small)Win +1.02
Under 105 -108 NYK (Small) Win +1.00
Under 86.5 -112 NO (Small)Win +1.00
Over 96.5 -105 Milw (Small)Win +1.00
Under 109.5 Suns (Small) Pending

1st Half (2-1-1 +1.16)
Under 108 +105 NYK (Small) Loss -1.00
Kings +116 ML (Small) Win +1.16
Under 109 -111 Sac (Small) Win +1.00(pending but)
Over 96 -104 Minny (Medium)PUSH

2nd Half (3-1 +2.91)
Under 106 -115 Den (Small) Win +1.00
Over 97.5 +100 Mil (Medium) Win +2.00
Magic +3 -111 (Small) Win +1.00 ML +166 (Value)xxxx
Ov 89 -109 (Small) Loss -1.09


Not crazy about this card (again)...might change my mind on some but should play on Atl...
 
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Thanks BT....I knew , guess you skipped the comments and went straight to the plays..cant say I like the line move but I will ride it out
 
Thanks betCrimes....GL...


2nd H
magic +3 -111 (Small) ML +166 (Value)
Ov 89 -109 (Small)..really like Und 182 so going againt my original ideas

Thats all...sort of lean Chi -2 -120 and char -3.5 -105...
 
Plus already went Kings ML and 1st H under....getting distracted or losing track of time trying to make some plans for tonite.. havent done good job talking about 2nd H's...
 
It's late but mostly cause I liked the game Under. Sac played tight defense in the 2nd H to slow Utah so I thought they would follow that up here. I felt the fatigue factor was showing up in the Suns long range shooting 8-31 last nite (4-23 besides Nash) only 32 % past 5 . As well as Suns totals just getting ahead of themesleves and we have seen 3 or 4 straight unders.....wasnt a big play just a feel play for me...
 
well now i see why..... I think you gotta take the over for the 2nd
 
ontime23 said:
well now i see why..... I think you gotta take the over for the 2nd

Yeah they were sluggish picked up it some late...I just still think 109 points is nothing to sneeze at....looked like the over was the play with them vs GS yesterday after a sprint to the half but then it was a flat 2nd H......I have no reason to play it but would suggest an Under before an over....Suns would be suprising to shot better considering the situation and Kings arent shooting well...I really have a NO play stance on this regardless of where my money is at.....

BOL
 
SportsNut said:
RECAP:

Sides(6-1 +8.49)
Magic +2 -107 (Medium) Win +2.00 ML +112(Small) Win +1.12
Celtics +3 -110 (Medium) Win +2.00 ML +129 (value)Win +0.32
Nuggets -3 -110 (XLarge) Win +3.90 (Win +5 lost -1. middle)
Pistons +1.5 -109 (Medium) Win +2.00
Bucks +2 -110 (Medium) Win +2.00 ML +107 (Value)+0.27
Kings +3.5 -110 (XLarge) ML +133 (Small) Loss -6
Hawks +4 -110(small) Win +1.00 ML +160(value)Loss -0.12

Totals(4-1 +9.93)
Over 194.5 -110 Charlotte (Large) Win +4.00
Over 191.5 -107 Chicago (Small) Win +1.00
Over 183 -110 Memphis (Large)Win +4.00
Under 214.5 -107 NYK (Small) Loss -1.07
Under 182 -110 Philly (Small) Off...No Play!!!! XXXXXXXX
Under 221 -105 Sac (Medium) Win +2.

Lean:
Ov 194 -102 Milw

Team Totals (6-0 +7.02)
Over 94 -112 Atlanta (Medium)Win +2.00
Over 96.5 +102 Boston (Small)Win +1.02
Under 105 -108 NYK (Small) Win +1.00
Under 86.5 -112 NO (Small)Win +1.00
Over 96.5 -105 Milw (Small)Win +1.00
Under 109.5 Suns (Small) Win +1.00

1st Half (2-1-1 +1.16)
Under 108 +105 NYK (Small) Loss -1.00
Kings +116 ML (Small) Win +1.16
Under 109 -111 Sac (Small) Win +1.00(pending but)
Over 96 -104 Minny (Medium)PUSH

2nd Half (3-1 +2.91)
Under 106 -115 Den (Small) Win +1.00
Over 97.5 +100 Mil (Medium) Win +2.00
Magic +3 -111 (Small) Win +1.00 ML +166 (Value)xxxx
Ov 89 -109 (Small) Loss -1.09


Not crazy about this card (again)...might change my mind on some but should play on Atl...

Have the Kings and Under riding ...but really couldt ask for better...if the Rockets didnt choke think I would have hit my last 14 sides!
 
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Little concerned about Suns late run to get back in it but +158 Sac ML 2nd Half is some nice value at this point IMO.....
 
SportsNut said:
Have the Kings and Under riding ...but really couldt ask for better...if the Rockets didnt choke think I would have hit my last 14 sides!
you are 'an_horse' good
 
This going to script, I think the Suns narrowly win this period too, but then Sac pulls away in the last, so you got

Sac win 1st comfortably
Phx win 2nd close
Phx win 3rd close
Sac win 4th to whatever degree of comfort/Suns tank emptys
 
Agree with you think the 1st 6-8 minutes of the 3rd Q is the Suns and then we see the momentum swing back to the home team or so I hope......
 
Well Martin getting injured and Miller almost being non existent in this game has cost the Kings. Whether they'd have won anyway is arguable, but their task became too much in light of those facts.
 
Yeah it happens should have middled some I saw the tide turn late 2nd Q so to speak...Bibby seemed to take every big shot 2ndH and 0-7 from three doesnt help...

That consecutive nites my last side was pending and leading at half as a dog and choked..to ruin a perfect ATS run...

As I said could have middled some...

2nd H total 108.5...60-48..ouch...

thanks all!!
 
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