Saturday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 29 Sat 2023

01:10 PM
965Kansas City RoyalsB. Keller -R+1½
-103		+203O 8½
-108
966Minnesota TwinsB. Ober -R+7 Markets-1½
-117		-224U 8½
-112
02:07 PM
967Seattle MarinersE. McGee -R+1½
+123		+237O 9
-115
968Toronto Blue JaysK. Gausman -R+6 Markets-1½
-143		-265U 9
-105
03:05 PM
955Chicago CubsC. Kilian -R+1½
-180		+115O 8½
-125
956Miami MarlinsE. Cabrera -R+7 Markets-1½
+160		-125U 8½
+105
03:07 PM
975Cincinnati RedsH. Greene -R-1½
+111		-144O 8
-108
976Oakland AthleticsK. Muller -L+7 Markets+1½
-131		+133U 8
-112
03:10 PM
969Cleveland GuardiansZ. Plesac -R+1½
-170		+114O 9
-118
970Boston Red SoxB. Bello -R+7 Markets-1½
+150		-124U 9
-102
04:10 PM
977Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Wheeler -R+1½
-215		+105O 7½
+103
978Houston AstrosC. Javier -R+7 Markets-1½
+185		-115U 7½
-123
04:10 PM
983Baltimore Orioles - Game #2G. Rodriguez -R-1½
+105		-155O 7½
-120
984Detroit Tigers - Game #2M. Boyd -L+6 Markets+1½
-125		+143U 7½
+100
05:05 PM
957San Francisco GiantsS. Manaea -L+1½
+100		+155O 15½
-110
958San Diego PadresJ. Musgrove -R+6 Markets-1½
-120		-168U 15½
-110
05:05 PM
981Pittsburgh Pirates - Game #2V. Velasquez -R-1½
+105		-145O 9
-105
982Washington Nationals - Game #2C. Kuhl -R+6 Markets+1½
-125		+134U 9
-115
06:05 PM
971New York YankeesJ. Brito -R+1½
-145		+147O 8½
-105
972Texas RangersN. Eovaldi -R+7 Markets-1½
+125		-159U 8½
-115
06:10 PM
973Tampa Bay RaysC. Faucher -R-1½
+122		-132O 9
-125
974Chicago White SoxL. Lynn -R+7 Markets+1½
-142		+122U 9
+105
06:10 PM
979Los Angeles AngelsR. Detmers -L+1½
-172		+123O 8
-115
980Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R+7 Markets-1½
+152		-133U 8
-105
07:10 PM
959Arizona DiamondbacksT. Henry -L-1½
+125		-112O 12½
-108
960Colorado RockiesN. Davis -R+7 Markets+1½
-145		+102U 12½
-112
08:10 PM
961St. Louis CardinalsJ. Montgomery -L+1½
-165		+134O 8
-111
962Los Angeles DodgersC. Kershaw -L+7 Markets-1½
+145		-145U 8
-109
 
Last edited:
The way seattle swinging the bats they not gonna be hitting Gausman, if he on he gonna fan at least 6-7.

Strider has struck out at least 9 in every freaking start this year, dude a fucking machine, basically just throwing that high octane fastball and wipe out slider. Guy is nasty.

Never heard the kid starting for cubs.

Another really good pitching matchup in houston, Stros are gonna struggle to score now with Alvarez out. I already had concerns about Stros offense and now they short their best hitter. Im not sure Stros should be favs? Wheeler gonna pitch better but I will take a closer look and make sure nothing looks off with him, he fanned 11 last start so that a good sign.

Evoldi is gonna punch out a bunch of Yankees.

Man, rays are cheap, how can we not expect them to tee off on lynn? Strong wind blowing out too, they bound to score in bunches.

Handful of double headers, not a lot of lines out. What a cluster fuck pain in the ass that is!
 
Not touching the 1st balty/det game, damn thing just starts too early! I had some errands to run this morning so really just sitting down with card now. I’ll try to crank out some plays fast as I can!
 
That giants/pads total freaked me out for a minute till I remembered hearing they playing in Mexico, lol. They didn’t play yesterday so today and 2marro the only 2 games they having there?
 
are we taking elevation plus small park dimensions? 15.5 lot higher than the total we would get at coors with this quality of starting pitchers .
 
2daBank said:
are we taking elevation plus small park dimensions? 15.5 lot higher than the total we would get at coors with this quality of starting pitchers .
Click to expand...
Elevation and heat

Recipe for a 10-10 type game before it even gets started
 
KJ said:
Elevation and heat

Recipe for a 10-10 type game before it even gets started
Click to expand...

Yea but I don’t see a guy like musgrove getting clobbered. Best thing I can think of doing is looking at their numbers at coors? He has had a few pretty good starts there but last year gave up 5 in 5 innings. The thing I will say/like and the reason I don’t expect him to get totally smashed he has only walked one batter in 18 innings at coors, he obviously understands you just can’t give free passes in a park like this and he has good enough command to execute such a game plan. Solo bombs won’t hurt, walking 2 guys in front of a bomb a killer! Little more worried bout Manaea who known to have lapses in command.
 
This could be just what the dr ordered in terms of helping jump start the pads disappointing offense??
 
2daBank said:
Yea but I don’t see a guy like musgrove getting clobbered. Best thing I can think of doing is looking at their numbers at coors? He has had a few pretty good starts there but last year gave up 5 in 5 innings. The thing I will say/like and the reason I don’t expect him to get totally smashed he has only walked one batter in 18 innings at coors, he obviously understands you just can’t give free passes in a park like this and he has good enough command to execute such a game plan. Solo bombs won’t hurt, walking 2 guys in front of a bomb a killer! Little more worried bout Manaea who known to have lapses in command.
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I couldn't compare Coors to Mexico City other than elevation. That's the only thing they have in common.

Going to be mid 80s, no real wind, no real humidity

Says something when I think that shitty Giants offense can score 10+, might just take their team total
 
KJ said:
I couldn't compare Coors to Mexico City other than elevation. That's the only thing they have in common.

Going to be mid 80s, no real wind, no real humidity

Says something when I think that shitty Giants offense can score 10+, might just take their team total
Click to expand...

I think elevation a pretty big deal in comparing, Obviously ball flies even more here based off the total. This total more in line with the old days at Rangers park when the jet steam wind tunnel thing was in effect! God I loved those games! I really think you barking up the wrong tree with giants total, I think musgrove will be solid, obviously solid has a entirely different meaning in a park like this but 6 innings 4 runs seems like a reasonable expectation for me. 80s with no humidity isn’t that hot, isn’t that similar to coors in summer time?

I just don’t expect Joe to walk guys which I think is the key in parks like this, solo bombs not gonna get them to 10!! Between strikeouts and ground balls he should keep the ball out the air in 80% giants at bats. Keep the ball out of the air, don’t give up free passes and you have a good chance of a decent outing, he been pretty good at chase field the last few years also.

These Mfers don’t even have 1st 5 lines up, no team totals from what I see?!! What the hell? This the kind of game I think some creativity required as I don’t have any faith in Manaea or giants pen, I’d like to take them out the equation and focus on musgrove as I think he can exceed expectations.
 
Think I remember a 18.5 or something once. That was highest I ever seen. Lot of 15-16s, a few 17s, and almost for sure that one 18 at least. They really couldn’t set it high enough as it often flew over! You just had to get the ball up in the air to right field and it was gone!!
 
Maybe there a case for a alternate total on pads? If there was ever a game/park where we could easily see a 4-5-6 run discrepancy on a normal basis it be something like this where I believe one pitcher much more suited to handle it!
 
This is pissing me off, they taking forever to post some k props and while I wait im losing numbers on others! Fucking Guasman has went from 6.5 to 7.5, I was leaning ov6.5 for sure. 7.5 tough for me to get behind. If I had the guts to play unders there a few I see as solid under bets today! Hill 4.5? Nats actually have solid numbers vs lefties and they not a high strikeout team, I really can’t see hill getting 5+ here!! There were a few more that jumped out as being a bit high as well, I can just never bring myself to actually play the under. Lol
 
KJ said:
Yep you get to choose SGP or live wager
Click to expand...

Damn. I might chill on Illinois side for a minute during the Mexico game, that seems like a good one to live bet!! The sgp they say 100% boost but it like 20% for 3 legs then they add 5% or some bs for every other leg, I’ve never came close to 100%! Lol
 
Still no k prop for a whole bunch the games. Getting annoyed. I don’t want to wait around too long and lose numbers I like! Already happened w one pitcher.
 
Giants offense is sporting a high ops vs rhp, they also fanning 29% of AB’s vs righties!! Just a question of how long musgrove can stay in? Gotta think he get a longer leash than usual, they not gonna yank their starter just cause he gives up 4-5 runs, can’t do that to pen and come away from these 2 games with your pen having took a beating!!
 
2daBank said:
Damn. I might chill on Illinois side for a minute during the Mexico game, that seems like a good one to live bet!! The sgp they say 100% boost but it like 20% for 3 legs then they add 5% or some bs for every other leg, I’ve never came close to 100%! Lol
Click to expand...
Maybe it's exclusive to the account, not sure but this is what I got

1682787537514.png
 
Maybe it different today. I havnt looked. I just know they often advertise a 100% boost w Mlb sgp but like I said it only 20% w 3 legs then they add for each additional leg but so what? Who gonna hit a sgp w bases with 5-6+ legs? Not me, lol.
 
2daBank said:
Maybe it different today. I havnt looked. I just know they often advertise a 100% boost w Mlb sgp but like I said it only 20% w 3 legs then they add for each additional leg but so what? Who gonna hit a sgp w bases with 5-6+ legs? Not me, lol.
Click to expand...
Yeah I rarely use those, starts at 20% with a three teamer, not sure I've ever gone with more legs

I don't treat those as anything but a cute toy. The boosts like the one above and the player props, I use those most times. I will use this one for sure.
 
KJ said:
Yeah I rarely use those, starts at 20% with a three teamer, not sure I've ever gone with more legs

I don't treat those as anything but a cute toy. The boosts like the one above and the player props, I use those most times. I will use this one for sure.
Click to expand...

Yea me too, dunno if I try hitters in Mexico or live in Mexico? I wish they put team totals up there. I hate they don’t let you use 1st 5 in the sgp parlays.
 
2daBank said:
Yea me too, dunno if I try hitters in Mexico or live in Mexico? I wish they put team totals up there. I hate they don’t let you use 1st 5 in the sgp parlays.
Click to expand...
As much as I'd like it they simply aren't that stupid

SGPs are a unique thing as it is
 
I probably average one SGP a week and often it's only 2 legs so no bonus

I'm fine with that
 
KJ said:
I probably average one SGP a week and often it's only 2 legs so no bonus

I'm fine with that
Click to expand...

Really never do them, I tried one w baseball yesterday, hit 3 of 4 legs, i was back and forth between Castillo k’s or manoah and picked wrong.

I do a stupid nba one every day for 10 bucks with a ton of legs, usually combine a few games. Just cause they give you the 10 back if it loses. Havnt hit one yet but figure worth a shot every day, eventually I’ll get lucky! Lol. The Boston/hawks series I just missed a few where I used a ton of 3 point props and got 1 guy wrong. Think it was murray who cost me a 8 teamer in game 6! Fucker. Fuckinb warriors ml got me yesterday.
 
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2daBank said:
Really never do them, I tried one w baseball yesterday, hit 3 of 4 legs, i was back and forth between Castillo k’s or manoah and picked wrong.

I do a stupid nba one every day for 10 bucks with a ton of legs, usually combine a few games. Just cause they give you the 10 back if it loses. Havnt hit one yet but figure worth a shot every day, eventually I’ll get lucky! Lol. The Boston/hawks series I just missed a few where I used a ton of 3 point props and got 1 guy wrong. Think it was murray who cost me a 8 teamer in game 6! Fucker. Fuckinb warriors ml got me yesterday.
Click to expand...
Yeah the rebate is a nice enticement. I usually do a $10 crazy parlay lottery style because of it
 
So the scrubbies starting a kid who isn’t exactly killing it in triple a, doesn’t appear to have a go to off speed pitch. He looks like the kind of guy the free swinging fish might actually hit!!! Arraez back in the lineup and he been raking when he plays, love seeing him in the 3 hole I guess, I like him leading off also but he a nice guy to have if guys on in front of him cause he not gonna strike out, he will at the very least advance the runners!!

I have a love/hate w Edward Cabrera cause I love his stuff but his command can be a real problem, he gets away with some walks cause he will buckle down and fam guys but the scrubbies not a high strikeout team, I think they could be a problem for him. I like the Ff ov 4.5 in this one. I rather avoid the pens as I think both capable of coming in and slowing the bats down. Between these 2 starters I think it likely one gets lit up, at the very least I don’t expect either to be clean thru 5, 3-2 would get the paper but I think there a good chance one team scores 4-5 runs themselves even tho I don’t love overs in this park. Only issue is cubs manager back at it again, he blew the game yesterday leaving stroman in too long, now today he starting more lefties than he should, Cabrera has some mean reverse splits as his change eats up lefties. Rather seen a right handed in place of Hosmer at DH. Makes me lean fish Ff.
 
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Rarely post this kind of shit but figure I have time this morning

Philly, Detroit g2 and White Sox are the only three public dogs today

Might get around to public unders in a bit also
 
I feel like a dumb Ass for not playing reds at even money vs the garbage A’s! I just said last week anytime we can get low odds against them at home vs average or better teans we should prob play it, obviously my sticking point was reds a below average team but maybe it don’t matter, they at least a big league team which way more than we can say about oakland! More expensive today but can the A’s touch hunter greene? Guess it will come down to his control, long as he throwing strikes he should dominate this lineup! He only has 2 walks in his last 15 innings, not shocking he been very good, the worst of the 3 starts was giving up 3 runs in 6 innings vs Braves! A’s starting a guy with a 17:13 k:bb ratio and a era over 7! Why not the reds? Maybe Ff -.5?
 
KJ said:
Rarely post this kind of shit but figure I have time this morning

Philly, Detroit g2 and White Sox are the only three public dogs today

Might get around to public unders in a bit also
Click to expand...

White Sox are being bet? That crazy! I thought avg ppl be hammering tampa every day. Love the rays tt ov 4.5,, They super cheap too so nothing against the ml, im just liking the idea of isolating rays bats vs Lynn (and cws pen) who looks washed to me!
 
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1st thought was reds Ff -.5. But why leave the pens out where Oakland pen era is freaking 7! With 86 k’s and 77 mfin walks in 111 innings! Holy crap. This really is a minor league team and not a particularly good 1. Im liking the -1.5 +115!
 
White Sox pen is only one besides oak with a 6+ era. Cws at least strikes a lot out but like I been saying bout cws pen last several years they have dudes w nasty stuff but they just don’t get outs!! It makes no sense but it kinda similar to Cease who stuff as good as anyone but he hasn’t the 1st clue how to actually pitch!
 
Only public under I see is Cards/Dodgers and it's significantly bet to the under

6 is a tough number to stomach though
 
Damn, they wernt fucjing around with Reid Detmers k prop. I was thinking 5.5 but they came with a 6.5 -135 to over. Damn.
 
KJ said:
Only public under I see is Cards/Dodgers and it's significantly bet to the under

6 is a tough number to stomach though
Click to expand...

I like the matchup for Montgomery once again, he been getting some starts against lineups I prefer lhp against. Dodgers struggling big time vs lhp! .629 ops as a team! On other hand cardinals rock lefties and I think they have always taken tough at bats vs Kershaw. Don’t get me wrong he has pitched some gems vs us but we have also figured out ways to get him out of games and beat him, especially back in the day in the playoffs! Not saying we gonna mash him but I think they can score 2-3 off him. Montgomery has only faced lad once in his career, it was in this park and he get beat up pretty good and ran from game early. I don’t think that will happen again, dodgers lineup was a lot more fearsome last year. I would lean Ff under but I like cards Ff also, if this going over it will be one these teams getting to one these starters in 6th or 7th then the pens getting knocked around, that the only path to over 8 I see. I’d think we looking at a 2-1 game at most thru 5 innings.
 
2daBank said:
I like the matchup for Montgomery once again, he been getting some starts against lineups I prefer lhp against. Dodgers struggling big time vs lhp! .629 ops as a team! On other hand cardinals rock lefties and I think they have always taken tough at bats vs Kershaw. Don’t get me wrong he has pitched some gems vs us but we have also figured out ways to get him out of games and beat him, especially back in the day in the playoffs! Not saying we gonna mash him but I think they can score 2-3 off him. Montgomery has only faced lad once in his career, it was in this park and he get beat up pretty good and ran from game early. I don’t think that will happen again, dodgers lineup was a lot more fearsome last year. I would lean Ff under but I like cards Ff also, if this going over it will be one these teams getting to one these starters in 6th or 7th then the pens getting knocked around, that the only path to over 8 I see. I’d think we looking at a 2-1 game at most thru 5 innings.
Click to expand...
I like Cards team total over
 
No way in hell I play a heavy public under or anything correlated with it. Complete losing proposition over the course of time and the number blows for under anyway. Basically asking for one of the two pitchers to throw 6-7 shutout innings. Not like it can't happen but that's not something I'd like to put money on.
 
KJ said:
No way in hell I play a heavy public under or anything correlated with it. Complete losing proposition over the course of time and the number blows for under anyway. Basically asking for one of the two pitchers to throw 6-7 shutout innings. Not like it can't happen but that's not something I'd like to put money on.
Click to expand...

I’ve never much cared what the bet percentages are on baseball games. I’m totally confident in my capping of them, don’t matter to me what other ppl doing. I’m way more concerned with how far the line moves.
 
2daBank said:
I’ve never much cared what the bet percentages are on baseball games. I’m totally confident in my capping of them, don’t matter to me what other ppl doing.
Click to expand...
Oh I agree with you

Just betting public unders will destroy even the best of gamblers over time
 
I think I want some of cards ml if I like them over 3.5. Their pen worries me but I think Montgomery will go 6 strong innings. You would hope the pen can go 2-3 innings without imploding! Lol
 
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