Saturday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 15 Sat 2023

12:05 PM
961Minnesota TwinsT. Mahle -R+1½
-165		+118O 8½
-105
962New York YankeesD. German -R+1 Markets-1½
+145		-128U 8½
-115
01:10 PM
963Baltimore OriolesK. Gibson -R-1½
+140		-110O 9
-110
964Chicago White SoxM. Kopech -R+1 Markets+1½
-160		+100U 9
-110
01:15 PM
951Pittsburgh PiratesR. Contreras -R+1½
-120		+170O 8½
-115
952St. Louis CardinalsS. Matz -L+1 Markets-1½
+100		-185U 8½
-105
03:05 PM
953Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R+1½
-180		+109O 8
-115
954San Diego PadresS. Lugo -R+1 Markets-1½
+160		-119U 8
-105
03:05 PM
973Cleveland GuardiansZ. Plesac -R-1½
-107		-158O 9
-115
974Washington NationalsC. Kuhl -R+1 Markets+1½
-113		+146U 9
-105
03:07 PM
975New York MetsC. Carrasco -R-1½
-110		-175O 9
-102
976Oakland AthleticsS. Fujinami -R+1 Markets+1½
-110		+161U 9
-118
03:10 PM
955Philadelphia PhilliesM. Strahm -L+1½
-203		+100O 9
-115
956Cincinnati RedsG. Ashcraft -R+1 Markets-1½
+178		-110U 9
-105
03:10 PM
957Arizona DiamondbacksR. Nelson -R+1½
-176		+115O 8½
-120
958Miami MarlinsB. Garrett -L+1 Markets-1½
+156		-125U 8½
+100
03:10 PM
967Los Angeles AngelsT. Anderson -L+1½
-200		-105O 9½
-104
968Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R+1 Markets-1½
+175		-105U 9½
-116
03:10 PM
977Atlanta BravesB. Elder -R-1½
+110		-137O 9
-101
978Kansas City RoyalsK. Bubic -L+1 Markets+1½
-130		+127U 9
-119
06:10 PM
969Texas RangersJ. Gray -R+1½
-140		+154O 8
-110
970Houston AstrosH. Brown -R+1 Markets-1½
+120		-167U 8
-110
08:10 PM
959Chicago CubsJ. Taillon -R+1½
-140		+139O 9
-104
960Los Angeles DodgersM. Grove -R+1 Markets-1½
+120		-150U 9
-116
08:40 PM
979Colorado RockiesR. Feltner -R+1½
-106		+214O 8
-111
980Seattle MarinersG. Kirby -R+1 Markets-1½
-114		-238U 8
-109
 
I can’t believe twins swapped out starters and got yanks again, whoever Varland is pitched really well. Twins pen was great as expected. That sucks tho cause I was giving yanks that game and wanting to get another twins win over weekend. Now mahle going Saturday? I don’t want to back him much more than I did before they pushed him back. That kinda screwed up my strategy for this series. I might have to pass again. I havnt looked at German yet tho.
 
Brewers dogs with the better starting pitcher going? I dunno bout that, that are mashing as we speak. Lego isn’t really a starter is he? I guess he is now, he going deep and been getting out good teams. Have to look closer at that game but way Brew crew playing there no way I’m paying juice to fade them!
 
MAtz a lefty. That bout only good thing I can say bout him for today. Weather gonna be interesting. Weatherman calling for big storms to roll thru hour or 2 before 1st pitch, they should be gone but it will be windy, wet, chilly. Prob not messing with that game.
 
Perez wasn’t even close to having his nest stuff in game 1 of the series, he walked a handful of guys and still was able to leave gane w a 5-2 lead and pen was able slam door shut not giving up anything but 1 hit in 4 scoreless innings w 4k’s and no walks/. This Stros lineup just doesn’t have the depth, if the 2 runs one was a solo sho by Maldonado of all ppl, the guy who used to be the only fairly easy out in the lineup! If we get Jon Grey at his best he gonna mow down this lineup for 5-6 innings. Under might be worth a look, Hunter Brown appears to be another in the seemingly endless line of talented pitchers coming up the houston pipeline so this could be a pitchers duel w some nice k numbers from both sides.
 
As much I like playing dogs I don’t think it a great idea to get a W and keep firing back at same dog all series when we talking +140 and higher, basically games books are saying one team is distinctly better, at same time we early in year and books just don’t have a good handle on what teams are gonna be yet.

Right now with the pitchers starting for Dodgers this series I just don’t see them as much better than the scrubbies. They gonna have to get starting pitchers back or they not winning shit this year. I’d expect Tallion be fine in this park, I think cubs outta be able to get some runs across against Grove, don’t think dodgers pen any better than cubs pen at moment. It tough not to back cubs again here. It for sure them or nothing as dodgers and sturos both seem overpriced to me.
 
Both A and Met starters match up really well vs. opposing lineup. Thinking both guys bring their ERAs down massively today
 
Isn't Plesac generally a big fade on the road? Bummer bc Washington slugs .248 (ranked 30th) against his pitches from righties
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Peralta way better during the day, Brewers might well win again, but just a lean for me
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I havnt even looked. Seems kinda shocking Lugo turns starter after how many years in pen and dude is going 6-7 innings out the gates, once against a really good Braves offense! This is a day game so that good for milw is what you saying right, peralta anyways? I honestly thought line would flip but it appears pads taking money, now I’m really getting interested in Brew crew. Not sure if I have bet any their games yet, their offense will prob revert to looking like last year the minute I do, lol.
 
I see Bubic strikeout total prop o4.5 -140. The Braves K a lot and Bubic is a different pitcher this year.

I wish it was 5.5 and less juiced.

I do see o6 +123
 
Im def not suggesting I’m playing this but with the era’s both pitchers sporting in SD the over 8 is tempting to me playing blind, just like pretty much every pitcher not on the A’s guys who have 10 or higher era’s are a good bet to pitch a lot better, same is true with guys sporting sub 1 era’s the opposite direction. Happened to Rasmussen last night and it will happen to these guys sooner than later. Although both Freddy p starts been day this year, like you said he a daytime kinda guy his numbers even better than usually in this years day games tho. Eventually the dam will break on both these 2 a little bit, I think I trust Freddy P to give me one more good 1 way more than I trust a converted reliever to continue going deep into games with such success, guys usually have a bit of drop off in stats when they convert so I have a hard time w thinking lugo be this good, plus milw is really hot right now so it even more likely he gets got today.
 
He Hate Me said:
I see Bubic strikeout total prop o4.5 -140. The Braves K a lot and Bubic is a different pitcher this year.

I wish it was 5.5 and less juiced.

I do see o6 +123
Click to expand...

No offense my man but that last part your statement is crazy. If you would play him ov 5.5 -110 you should be thrilled to hit that shit ov4.5 -140 imo. Im damn near allergic to betting favs but when it comes to the props I much rather pay the juice for a k less to cover! Now if it was higher like when they get up in the -170 range I stop being so thrilled bout it but if you on your k prop game -140 isn’t shit compared to rate you can be winning them. That extra k would knock my win percent down at least the equivalent of 30 cents.
 
2daBank said:
No offense my man but that last part your statement is crazy. If you would play him ov 5.5 -110 you should be thrilled to hit that shit ov4.5 -140 imo. Im damn near allergic to betting favs but when it comes to the props I much rather pay the juice for a k less to cover! Now if it was higher like when they get up in the -170 range I stop being so thrilled bout it but if you on your k prop game -140 isn’t shit compared to rate you can be winning them. That extra k would knock my win percent down at least the equivalent of 30 cents.
Click to expand...
I played it at -140 and o5.5 at +122.

I hate playing anything over -135 because anything can happen, especially the player getting hurt, which happened to multiple of my college football player prop bets this past season.
 
Last edited:
He Hate Me said:
I played it at -140 and +123.

I hate playing anything over -135 because anything can happen, especially the player getting hurt, which happened to multiple of my college football player prop bets this past season.
Click to expand...

That football tho, it happens but it pretty rare w baseball. I had one or 2 guys leave games early last year cause they got hit by a comebacker but for most part unless a dudes arm falls off you don’t have too many injury concerns. I get any play can lose, I’m the preacher of that with baseball, im just saying if you capping pitcher props well your win percentage should be able to cover -140 losses all day, little bad luck and all. I’d say at least half my k prop loses are needing 1 more to cash and Asshole manager pulls a guy around 80 pitches or some bull shit!! So if I cap a guy to get me 6k’s I much rather pay -140 for 4.5 than whatever 5.5 would be.
 
Football I agree, I don’t like paying juice on those either, I much rather take it up a handful of yards than pay -140 but I don’t hit those at same clip as pitchers and I don’t think a few yards nearly as valuable as a whole strikeout!!
 
2daBank said:
That football tho, it happens but it pretty rare w baseball. I had one or 2 guys leave games early last year cause they got hit by a comebacker but for most part unless a dudes arm falls off you don’t have too many injury concerns. I get any play can lose, I’m the preacher of that with baseball, im just saying if you capping pitcher props well your win percentage should be able to cover -140 losses all day, little bad luck and all. I’d say at least half my k prop loses are needing 1 more to cash and Asshole manager pulls a guy around 80 pitches or some bull shit!! So if I cap a guy to get me 6k’s I much rather pay -140 for 4.5 than whatever 5.5 would be.
Click to expand...
A pitcher getting hurt at the beginning of the season and not finishing the game is pretty common. There is a long list of those this season and most seasons.

The o4.5 -140 had low limits so I also played o5.5 +122
 
I probably would have went across river in middle the night to play Roansy Conteras ov 3.5 k’s but I had no clue what going on with weather for this game, still don’t really. It looks like it bout to rain but they saying it gonna stop and get a break during game then later on the bigger storms with the colder temps. There also the little fact that cards saw Roansy plenty last year and he never punched out many and mostly got knocked around and out of games early. That said pirates seem to have a really good scouting report on them, last 2 games they been killing cards with down and away sliders to the righties who just flailing away. Roansy has a legit slider and curve he can continue getting them to expend the zone with, I’d think he gets 4k’s easy if he doesn’t get run from the game hanging too many mistakes. Im tempted on over 4.5 +130 but weather a potential issue and just don’t trust him seeing how ineffective he was vs cards last year., guess I’m just passing on this game, at least until closer to 1sy pitch so I can see what the weather like.
 
He Hate Me said:
A pitcher getting hurt at the beginning of the season and not finishing the game is pretty common. There is a long list of those this season and most seasons.

The o4.5 -140 had low limits so I also played o5.5 +122
Click to expand...

I play as many as anyone and like I said I’ve had 2 guys since beginning last year leave early, both got hit with liners. It your money bro you can play them however you like, I just know for me with k props one less k at -140 is probably the better paying play long term, it probably close with you getting +122 tho, that a 60 cent difference, ilm not gonna do the math but I was thinking it wouldn’t be much more than 30-40 cents. 60 cents it prob 6 to 1 half dozen to the other as they say. Gl
 
Win4L said:
Thanks Bank! GL today!
Click to expand...

Np, I used peralta as a 2 team parlay piece w several the other plays cause he was juicy. I won’t play the -180 ones straight very often. Lol.

I think I’ll have at least 1 more k prop tonight, maybe 2, and really not sure I can stay away from rangers ml, that should be a tight low scoring game as I think both pitchers be solid, just a ton of value on texas this series as they lining Stros like they the same team as last seasons and they not!! The Altuve injury was a killer for them cause the lineup had already lost quite a bit the depth, lot of fairly easy outs in the bottom half!!

Gl to you as well.
 
The Kikuchi trust is strange for me cause he another one of a handful of guys that are really tough for me to figure out in a given start. I’ll fade him and he nails, I’ll bet him and he will walk 5 guys in 3 innings and be yanked super early. A total pain in my ass, so is Berrios and he came thru for me yesterday. The fact I saw rays strike out 7x in 4 innings vs Kluber gave me a lot of confidence in jays pitchers this series cause they all have way better stuff than Kluber has had the last 3 years!!

I think this kinda a statement series for jays, don’t think they ain’t heard everyone talking bout rays! While they started with some tough road trips and still played above .500 ball even tho all their starters had terrible 1st starts! Jays are every bit as good as rays, maybe better, rays going with a opener today, they have the pen numbers to do so but I still think if you gonna use 4-5 or more pitchers vs Toronto lineup they gonna get to one or 2 of them, every guy being at his best just isn’t likely imo, -125 is probably close to the right price I just have a feeling jays are taking at least 2 of 3 this series. Plus I like fading a team the day after a long streak gets snapped! I usually wait till then and don’t fade the streak but I had to last night!
 
Refs play is pretty simple, going against another converted reliever who has gaudy numbers starting out the year as a starter. I think strahm is even more fade worthy than Lugo cause he has been giving up very hard contact and has just gotten away with it! Reds ballpark isn’t the place to be giving up hard hit fly balls. Ashcroft is the 3rd of the reds answer to milw big 3, love them all! Ashcroft doesn’t get the swing and miss of the other 2 but he throwing a 99-100mph cutter that nobody squaring up, that plays in cincy bandbox. Huge starting pitcher advantage hence cincy Ff and Philly Ff tt under 2.5 just in case strahm has another fortunate start.
 
God dammit, I knew we get the 5th for peralta to get that 6th k but middle order knew it be tough, why isn’t anyone striking Cruz old ass out? plus the prick gave pads the lead. So much for sweep, ugh. Should just played Fuckinh Roamsy like I said instead of taking myself off him, cards bats are a mess.
 
I need milw to have a really big afternoon, that 5th inning didn’t do me any favors. Even +1.5 would make it solid. Im already up where I started but not a lot.
 
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