Saratoga Race Course Week #6 Discussion.....
- Thread starter Play2win
- Start date
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Totally agree, never in a comfortable position
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 10, Feathered is a speedball stuck on the outside, JC will go hard. Rosario will send the 1 too, who's kept close in two straight quick-paced races. 6 and 7 also do their best running from the front. If Edgar can work the trip the #5 has serious late running ability and should be able to corral this group in the last 30 yards.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Repole is dangerous off claim, Gullo has had solid meet, last race was muddy dirt throw out race, 2 back was this condition on turf 1st time with blinkers tough trip, raced vs much tougher in prior races
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Hell shoulda EXB, TRB and SBX that shit
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Have a fantasy draft in an hour, but will try to multitask
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 2 has the debut, at 3YO, of $1.6 million #5 Farraj for Pletcher and Al Shaqab Racing. Been a long time coming for this one and his works do not appear to be at the typical Pletcher level. Will need to see what the paddock opinion is first. #3 looks interesting for Rudy Rod coming out of a nice 48 flat gate drill. Of the returnees #1 ran 3rd to sharp Tennessee last out, could improve 2nd off layoff. #2 and #6 make their 3YO debuts and a normal improvement from 2 to 3 would put them in the picture. Either single the 5 or spread.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 3 starts with #2 First Service for Chad, whose last effort puts him about 4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. #1 was considered stakes worthy at Aqueduct last winter but failed miserably, took the spring off before putting in an OK effort 3 weeks ago, could move forward from that. #3 broke his maiden with a stakes win last year at the Spa, runs well on this course. #6 has been progressing steadily and sports an underrated jockey but seems to hang a bit. Of races 2 & 3 I'd prefer singling in this one with #2.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 4 you've got two lightly raced 3YOs in #2 Tennessee (Pletcher), #5 Proven Commodity both exiting impressive maiden scores and potentially bound for big things. There's a 2nd Pletcher in the mix, #7, who figures to tuck in behind these two and get first run. And there's also #6, who has graded stakes experience including a 3rd in a 7 furlong grade 3 and gets a jockey upgrade.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 5 has a pair of Chad firsters on the lawn, #2 and #9 who both figure to get a lot of support. Sneaky play might be the well bred #7 for Shug that showed a bullet work last out and ran a sharp 47&4 from the gate in early August. Not a fan of either of the two returning runners. There's also a Pletcher first timer with a bullet work but a spotty turf pedigree.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 7 is tough to figure. #1 Rosalind towers over this field in class as a Grade 2 winner on turf (in her last turf try), but it begs the question of why Chad Brown has her in here? #2 has backclass from her Euro days. #3 and #4 (another Chad horse) also have graded stakes experience, although not successful. The clever pick might be #7, who figures to be in the lead with crafty Junior Alvarado on board and not much pace to worry about.
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Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Pletcher 0-19 FTS 3yo and older last 5 years at Spa. #1 cuts back a panel 2nd off layoff and should have a nice foundation. #6 was gelded during the long layoff and removes the blinkers and shows some sharp morning work. #2 faced some good ones last year in Ready for Rye and El Kabeir, McLaughlin as hot as any barn and thrives bringing back off long layoff a 37% win rate.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 8 looks like it will play out one of two ways, either #5 Prospero runs them all off their feet or #3 Looking Cool takes advantage of what should be a strong pace and runs them all down in the last quarter mile. Sneaky play is #6 Tizmas, who's form is dirtied up a bit by a couple of 1 turn routes at this level. When going two turns on a fast track this gelding has gone win, second by a head, win, and win at the Spa at this distance the last four tries.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R1 could go many different ways, I really like Mid Atlantic shippers in these turf sprints at Saratoga where we run 5.5 furlongs instead of 7F like Belmont, 5.5F is more like a specialist distance and at the Mid Atlantic tracks they run many 5 and 5.5 furlong turf races and have some real hard knockers on those circuits...in R1 #2 could figure at a decent price, last out winner is 2 for 4 with 2 2nds this year, 2nd place 6-1-3-1 2015, 3rd place 6-2-2-1 this year....2 back 2nd place came back to win next start and is 8-2-1-2 this year, 3rd place finisher used to run in NY and is 9-3-1-2 this year, 4 back is a key race. #2 is the only 5 time turf winner in R1 and also has 5 distance wins, big jockey change today
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R3 #5 is likely outclassed in here and appears much slower than these on paper but is she possibly the lone speed? Trainer Jeremiah Englehart has had a very solid Spa meet and is great going turf to dirt, he's 5 for 16 going turf to dirt in sprints at Nyra tracks L5 years with a $3.43 ROI
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Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
#2 First Service is about as quick IMO. 22&1 and 45&1 last time. Gets a distance cutback too, while #5 has to go the extra half furlong.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Should be around most of the day. BOL :cheers3:
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Tend to agree, just questioning where that 90 Beyer came from after previously running 59 and 18 in prior dirt efforts, however wasn't Chad then...#2 is likely the one to beat
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
If #2 runs back to anywhere near last she wins going away again, big if though based on previous races. #3 and #6 would be the other 2 I'm looking at there if she can't repeat that effort.
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