Saratoga Race Course Week #6 Discussion.....

R4 #7 is 2nd time Pletcher and 2nd off layoff, Johnny stays instead of riding Tennessee. .last time was at a major pace disadvantage after breaking slow vs speedy horse for course Waco who returned to beat a good field yesterday. .also some interest in #6 who didn't have much chance last time vs slow pace, prior to that was running vs better, two back 3rd place finish to stablemate Grand Bili who ran in Kings Bishop
 
Race 9 got hit with three scratches, leaving a field of five that all appear capable. I'm intrigued by #6 Almasty who's 3 for 3 on the turf and figures to have an uncontested lead unless the French horse for Motion has early speed, no way to tell. Also can't quite toss #2, 15/1 on the morning line will come down due to scratches but figures to be fifth choice. Needs to make up 5 lengths on A Lot today, but he was only a stride behind Force the Pass in the Penn Mile in May and may get his closing kick back 2nd off the layoff.

A Lot is favored and has the class to win but her last 5 races have had pace ratings on BRIS of -7, -6, -4, -22 and -7, and he hung in the faster ones in that group. Almasty figures to guarantee an honest pace today.

#7 Nucifera ships from the French graded stakes and gets first time Lasix. Ran a sharp work at Fairlawn last time and Motion has a +ROI with Euro shippers.

And oh yeah, there's an improving Chad horse in #8 that's also running. Yikes.
 
Race 4 is the definition of wide open, seems to be an early battle between #2 and #5, will be interesting how the rest of the field settles in behind them, think it sets up best for the 2 outside horses #6 and #7 but if #1 could work out a rail trip and save ground wouldn't shock me.
 
Race 10 is the typical head scratching closing maiden claimer featuring eight class droppers and a Ramsey firster that's not a Kitten but has the meet's leading rider on board.

#1 ran what would be a winning effort here two back against Maidens, was dropped to a high maiden claiming level last time and had a bad trip. Leparoux jumps on for this 2nd class drop, he was ice cold early this meet but has been running better, will need to work out a trip in a big field.

#4 is an interesting price with a quadruple whammy: new trainer, blinkers, first time turf and first time route, but the dam is 0 for 8 with turfers and the horse ships in from Indiana?

#7 should be forwardly placed and with a field of mediocre runners like this could get the early jump and be gone.

#9 was intended for grass last November but the race went off-turf, hit the gate at the start but still ran an even fifth. Comes back from nine months off and gets the bugboy weight break.

#10 is the first timer, had a decent last work, but I'm leery to go with firsters in maiden claimers, especially on turf.

#11 is a Pletcher class drop, JC deems fit to ride, probably the one to beat but is a lukewarm choice.

#12 had a good effort last time but hung a bit running into a quick pace. Outside post is no picnic.
 
Gandolf said:
Race 5 has a pair of Chad firsters on the lawn, #2 and #9 who both figure to get a lot of support. Sneaky play might be the well bred #7 for Shug that showed a bullet work last out and ran a sharp 47&4 from the gate in early August. Not a fan of either of the two returning runners. There's also a Pletcher first timer with a bullet work but a spotty turf pedigree.
Click to expand...
#7 a half to Ironicus and bred to go long on the grass, as is #2. Sneaky could be #3 for a trainer in Brad Cox who is having a nice meet with limited runners and can get one ready to go long on the turf.
 
Race 6 #1 figures to be sent from the rail, but if Pletcher hasn't gotten them in the winners circle in 7 attempts, just may not be any good, 6 minor awards though would limit to underneath. #3 ran OK in last and might have needed that one and expect a better effort today. #4 is lone first time starter but Sharp can have them ready and has a nice steady work pattern for the debut. #8 Chad is almost 50% with this kind of drop to maiden claiming.
 
R7 you could go a lot of different directions, I may even use all to kick off pk4...but if you don't like horses coming out of 8/5 race, why is #4 Hellenistic impossible? 12-1 ML for meets leading trainer and jockey, exits a 1 1/2 Grade 3 race now 2nd off layoff and 3rd off longer layoff, had no chance in last after being squeezed at the start, then steady again on inside early, got off inside to run wide throughout in a pace less race won by wire to wire winner, traveled 33 feet more than that winner (Trakus), made nice late run through traffic in stretch, 2 back was on yielding turf.
 
Play2win said:
R7 you could go a lot of different directions, I may even use all to kick off pk4...but if you don't like horses coming out of 8/5 race, why is #4 Hellenistic impossible? 12-1 ML for meets leading trainer and jockey, exits a 1 1/2 Grade 3 race now 2nd off layoff and 3rd off longer layoff, had no chance in last after being squeezed at the start, then steady again on inside early, got off inside to run wide throughout in a pace less race won by wire to wire winner, traveled 33 feet more than that winner (Trakus), made nice late run through traffic in stretch, 2 back was on yielding turf.
Click to expand...

You can certainly do a lot worse than getting Chad and Irad at 12/1. I'm just stuck on why a proven Grade 2 winner like Rosalind would be in here other than to give Chad an easy chance to add to his meet win total.
 
I really like the Motion shipper in R9 today, same connections that brought us Main Sequence, Motion very dangerous with these 1st NA shippers getting lasix, very good class in France, Full Mast shows up in pp's was a Group 1 winner as a 2yo, this year 2nd in Group 3 and 7th in Group 1
 
R6 wide open race, #3 could improve 2nd off layoff and lightly raced 3 yo , interested in #4 Joe Sharp's firster possibly at a price, #8 is a major player ...Chad is great with his MSW to Maiden Claimers dropping, won with one yesterday. ..he's 1 for 1 past few Spa meets with horses making 3rd start of the meet
 
Play2win said:
R6 wide open race, #3 could improve 2nd off layoff and lightly raced 3 yo , interested in #4 Joe Sharp's firster possibly at a price, #8 is a major player ...Chad is great with his MSW to Maiden Claimers dropping, won with one yesterday. ..he's 1 for 1 past few Spa meets with horses making 3rd start of the meet
Click to expand...
#1 could be dangerous front end speed
 
Prolly have to be close to early pace on dirt as well, seemed that way early today and Sat and Sun also
 
Leaning on #1 in Race 7 and #7 in Race 9:

Race 7 Pick 3s :
1 / 3,5,6 / 2,6,7,8 and
1,2,3,7 / 3,5,6 / 7
 
Getting tough to close from anywhere past a stalking position on the turf again, just like at the start of the meet.

6/1 is a good start for the multi's.
 
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[TH]$2 GRAND SLAM
1,7,8,9 / 1,2,3 / 1,5,7 W/[/TH]
[TH]$2 PICK THREE
3 / 5 W/[/TH]
[TH]$2 DOUBLE
5 W/[/TH]
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[TH]1[/TH]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$15.60[/TD]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$92.00[/TD]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$12.60[/TD]
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[TR]
[TH]2[/TH]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$87.00[/TD]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$469.00[/TD]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$79.50[/TD]
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[TH]6[/TH]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$55.00[/TD]
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[TH]7[/TH]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$26.40[/TD]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$158.00[/TD]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$24.00[/TD]
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[TH]8[/TH]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$21.40[/TD]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$206.50[/TD]
[TD="class: gep-currency"]$26.60[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
R9 need #7 to cash GS 2.5x, have #7 singled 3rd leg of Pk4 using #1,2,4,9,10,11,12 in R10, mid leg pk3 have #1,6,7 into #10,11 in R10

R9 added DD #1,7/1,2,4,9,10,11,12
 
Leave it to Saez to go early, a smart aggressive ride. #7 closed well but needs a little more moisture on the grass, knew he was in trouble after the 50 second half.
 
Play2win said:
R10 I'm capping #11 to be the speed
Click to expand...
Wide open race, I have 7 contenders but Javy/Pletcher decent price other possible speed #7 just scratched, turf playing to speed, drops MSW to Maiden Claimer, adding blinkers could sharpen his speed
 
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