Saratoga Race Course Week #4 Discussion......

Play2win said:
R5 frosh sire Girolamo off to a great start but mostly with dirt runners, may use #1 regardless...may have to spread here in pk4 but #10 is a half to two turf winners and dam is from family that has five turf winners, question about #4 why debut in turf sprint??
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#4 opening at 7/2 is also a negative
 
R7 I'm going to spread in pk4 but #5 makes a lot of sense to me, 3rd career start but first on dirt, bred for dirt and Chad went 3 for 5 Spa going turf to dirt 2012-14 meets , even better he's 5 for 12 turf to dirt dropping MSW to Maiden Claimers L5 years
 
R8: #9 exits race that was dominated on front end, wide post steady start and wide both turns, beaten less than 3 lengths even though ran 72 feet more than winner according to Trakus.
 
R9 is a great race, thoughts a bit later..

R10: #2 is 2nd off layoff and 2nd time Esler stretching out today with good turf breeding, #3 only turf race Nov '14 @ Aqu makes him a contender, wide move in 2 turn synthetic race ok as well as synthetic form usually translates to turf...#9 gets trainer switch off purchase and is a new gelding today.
 
Good luck on your contest pick Gandy although that wouldn't behoove your DD

Took 1/3/9/10 TRB here
 
R9 #1 is defending champ of this race, could be at a pace advantage if #10 doesn't run with her early, #3 I like better going 2 turns, gets 2 turns today 2nd off long layoff, has back 2 turn races that make her a player in here, #4 may not class up with these but is 6 for 7 going two turns in her career and attracts Javy, #5 is my value play of the day ...much improved filly for trainer John Morrison who's 23% over last 5 years with dirt starters off 60-120 day layoffs, Beyer figs say she fits well here and should be a square price , expecting a nice stalking trip and stretching out shouldn't be a problem
 
I am so rattled today. So rattled. I had this pick 5 ticket.

1/1234/1259/1345910/67 $96 it paid $1500. I got shut out at the window cause my phone was slow. Watching my 2-5 shot win as a single hurt. I debated for a long time if I should use my same ticket to play the pick 4. I opted not to play the pick 4, as I was butt hurt that my pick 4 ticket would cost just as much as my pick 5 did. So I opted to sit out. The pick 4 then paid $800. So now I was on tilt. I put together 2 pick 4 tickets for the late pick 4 and am out the first race. Ready to just freak out. Should be up $1300 today instead I am down $150 due to slow connection.
 
That's a bummer Young Gun. I know there's days when I feel like the world is conspiring against me (only days ending in 'y' usually). Probably best to clean the wounds up and get ready for Wednesday. This eighth race doesn't look bettable.
 
In R10 I'm against the horses that exit 7/27 R9 as it was a weak field (much like this though) but race fell apart and everyone came together but man what a trip #6 had, widest whole trip. ..still prefer 2,3 and 9
 
YoungGun11 said:
I am so rattled today. So rattled. I had this pick 5 ticket.

1/1234/1259/1345910/67 $96 it paid $1500. I got shut out at the window cause my phone was slow. Watching my 2-5 shot win as a single hurt. I debated for a long time if I should use my same ticket to play the pick 4. I opted not to play the pick 4, as I was butt hurt that my pick 4 ticket would cost just as much as my pick 5 did. So I opted to sit out. The pick 4 then paid $800. So now I was on tilt. I put together 2 pick 4 tickets for the late pick 4 and am out the first race. Ready to just freak out. Should be up $1300 today instead I am down $150 due to slow connection.
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Sucks bro, you'll get it back....you have a great approach on multi race wagers :shake:
 
By BFF twit dude and my fav trainer , he's from my area and I know his parents, brother, uncle, grandfather
 
Play2win said:
Sucks bro, you'll get it back....you have a great approach on multi race wagers :shake:
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I appreciate that, the thing about multi race wagers is you can play them for a reasonable price. As you know you have to identify the vulnerable favorites, and the strong ones. Today I clearly thought the 2 years on the race is where it was wide open 12-1. Anytime 2 year olds are running, I either single the money and hope it is right, or go deep n beat it. Multi race wagers are all about figuring out the strongest fav and keying it then going deep in others. For the pick 4 and pick 5 to pay what they did today was insane. 2-5, 2-1, 4-1, 9-1, and 2-1. That is 3 favorites right there and it paid $1500.... These are must plays at the track.

Anyone have Wednesday's form? I apologize for asking so often however I just moved to a new house, no internet yet and it is blocked at work.
 
Play2win said:
Tremendous value here...

R10 BIG Win #3
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I wish you the best of luck and agree definite value. There are some things I question tho. He hasn't really run a lick lately, yet I know it was on synthetic and dirt so toss that. However the one time on turf was his best race.... But he was also trained by Rudy Rodriquez during that race not Michael LaCesse. I think that in all likelihood Irad had his choice of the 2-3-12 here and choose the 2. I definitely think it is a vulnerable favorite as layoff, stretchout, and that kick he had at sprinting (which wasn't much, could be further dulled by the stretchout). One horse I looked at for a real long time for those of you that play exotics is the 4. He is good price and could likely hit the board. This is a 4 year old running against a bunch of younger horses, they can improve so much as they get older. He is lightly raced and has improved every time out. Despite Arbibald's numbers this year, he can have a horse ready. Doesn't have to beat much.
 
YoungGun11 said:
I wish you the best of luck and agree definite value. There are some things I question tho. He hasn't really run a lick lately, yet I know it was on synthetic and dirt so toss that. However the one time on turf was his best race.... But he was also trained by Rudy Rodriquez during that race not Michael LaCesse. I think that in all likelihood Irad had his choice of the 2-3-12 here and choose the 2. I definitely think it is a vulnerable favorite as layoff, stretchout, and that kick he had at sprinting (which wasn't much, could be further dulled by the stretchout). One horse I looked at for a real long time for those of you that play exotics is the 4. He is good price and could likely hit the board. This is a 4 year old running against a bunch of younger horses, they can improve so much as they get older. He is lightly raced and has improved every time out. Despite Arbibald's numbers this year, he can have a horse ready. Doesn't have to beat much.
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lol, you just gained even more respect since you know about Kingsley
 
Win or lose I'm looking at my 1st profitable week of the meet, thanks to Saturday. Still have work to do and have to catch a break though.
 
Parents are going Tuesday and Wednesday, is there any pointers to give them or an good opportunity, not even sure what's going on, but dad got free tickets and is sitting right near Bill Parcell..thanks fellas
 
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