Saratoga Race Course Week #4 Discussion......

Not my stuff copied..DelMar Race 4
RACE FOUR
#12 BELLA BREEZE
has finished second in three of her four lifetime starts. She tried coming from off the pace last time after rushing to the lead in her previous races and again was the runner-up. Today she races with blinkers off for a new stable off the claim.
#5 SCATCHMEIFYOUCAN
looks as quick as any runner in this race. She finished third here in her most recent start following nine months on the sidelines in a race she may have needed from a fitness standpoint. She can win today if she stays strong late.
#9 TRIBAL ALL STAR
is worth a look in the paddock, post parade and on the tote board as she debuts this afternoon. The homebred has a pedigree to do well early in her career. Of her five winning siblings, two were full sibs and one a first-out winner.
 
last one of the day likely

Evangeline R7

3 WP
1/3/4/7 Exb
1/3/4/7 Trb

Need to beat that 1 to be profitable
 
Evangeline R8

7WP
1/2/5/7/8 exb (losing wager likely)
1,2,7/5,7/1,2,5,7,8 trb

let's see
 
R1: big trainer move 2nd out maidens for #5 who exits live heat at CD, #2 improved 20 Beyer points adding lasix and ran ok last time, Pletcher entry will take $ , last work both were in company
 
R2: my contenders #1 trip last time gave him no chance, pinch start , carried wide turn1, ran well late....#2 exits same race as #1 and could've been best that day, rank early , wide trip according to Trakus ran 64 feet more than winner and 63 ft more than place horse..#6 is a longshot with a chance, at least for minor award..back class with poor trips and ran a huge race here last year this same trip at a big price, no pace last race so was up against it, 2 back makes him a player in here
 
R3: very tricky 2YO maiden claimer as many are dropping from MSW...#5 is turf to dirt on short rest, should be an early pace factor..#6 could be a nice value play, Wilkes has poor first out numbers and broke from rail as 1ster in debut so was way up against it , Wilkes much better 2nd out and now adds blinkers and Lasix
 
R4 nothing will surprise me but all stretching out and at least #4 is only stretching extra half furlong, broke on rail last out and was rushed up on inside with no place to go early, watching replay did not seem like wanted to run on inside, especially after seeing replay of race two back when did best running on outside vs wire to wire winner, actually made lead in that race deep stretch.
 
R5: #3 ran big last time 1st Weaver, same level but faced a much tougher field in last, steadied early which cost him position, 2 path back of field, made wide move entering stretch and through stretch then in between deep stretch vs wire to wire winner and place horse was up on the pace, just missed 3rd by half length considering trip and Trakus 44 feet more than winner and 46 feet more than 2nd place finisher...#7 has back races going two turns on turf that make him a contender...#9 is a wild card with a chance.
 
Play2win said:
R5: #3 ran big last time 1st Weaver, same level but faced a much tougher field in last, steadied early which cost him position, 2 path back of field, made wide move entering stretch and through stretch then in between deep stretch vs wire to wire winner and place horse was up on the pace, just missed 3rd by half length considering trip and Trakus 44 feet more than winner and 46 feet more than 2nd place finisher...#7 has back races going two turns on turf that make him a contender...#9 is a wild card with a chance.
Click to expand...
#1 Cabo Cat stretches out from 7F to 1 Mile, has serious back class and exits a race where he was blocked the whole stretch.
 
R6: #3 broke on rail in debut and ran in stakes last out, attracts Javy. #10 nice debut race running 2nd to filly that bumped her (hip check) #2 also with race under her belt, bump hard break in debut now adds Lasix for great 2YO trainer. Firsters worth a look #1 , maybe #5 who is a half to 5 winners, #7
 
R7: #9 looks best in here, claimed out of dirt race now back to turf...a race that features some dirt horses and turf routers, no real turf sprinters in here which leads to #2 who is a two time winner in turf sprints, squeezed at the start in his last two races, still was able to win two back when also had to steady behind a wall of horses...#3 and #10 are contenders but Rudy 1 for 34 in Spa turf sprints last 3 meets (2012-14) and no turf sprint wins this current meet.
 
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[TD="colspan: 5"][TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="bgcolor: #e6e2c9"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]SCRATCHES[/TD]
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[TD="width: 6%, colspan: 1, align: center"]Race[/TD]
[TD="width: 12%, colspan: 1, align: center"]Program #[/TD]
[TD="width: 26%, colspan: 1"]Horse[/TD]
[TD="width: 21%, colspan: 1"]Reason[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Notes[/TD]
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[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]1A[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Patrick's Day[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Part of Entry[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]
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[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Power Crazed[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Rare Eagle[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Financial Modeling[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]No Wunder (GB)[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Exclusivo[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Silverado Star[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Wind Clan Warrior[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Big Looie[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Bond Vigilante[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]So Clutch[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]1A[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Taken by Surprise[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Also Eligible[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Freudsalm[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Also Eligible[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Gregorian Gold[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Also Eligible[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]The Pulse[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Blue Pigeon[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]
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[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Slim Shadey (GB)[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Manhattan Mischief[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
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[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Escapefromreality[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Juba[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Bossmon[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
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[TD="width: 10%, colspan: 1, align: center"]Race[/TD]
[TD="width: 15%, colspan: 1, align: center"]Program #[/TD]
[TD="width: 30%, colspan: 1"]Horse[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Changes[/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Boot Scootn Daddy[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Angel Arroyo[/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 4"]MISCELLANEOUS CHANGES[/TD]
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[TD="width: 10%, colspan: 1, align: center"]Race[/TD]
[TD="width: 15%, colspan: 1, align: center"]Program #[/TD]
[TD="width: 30%, colspan: 1"]Horse[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Changes[/TD]
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[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Professor Zoom[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]BLINKERS ON[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="colspan: 4"] [/TD]
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[TR="bgcolor: #e7e7e7"]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Boot Scootn Daddy[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]@ 124 LBS[/TD]
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R8 I did like #4 off troubled trip and on class drop but he's scratched. .#10 is a class drop 1st time in for tag and McLaughlin is 7 for 20 $3.75 ROI 1st time tag on turf last 5 years #9 is off claim for trainer that's 2 for 2 off claim on turf, ran well last time..#8 has plenty of back class, 2nd off layoff stretching out and was new gelding in last vs Pure Sensation.
 
R9 #4 could win off layoff but won't be any value...#9 was great in her only dirt race, #2 ran against the track in last

R10: #4 could be tough on front end, have to think #10 goes but who knows...#2 I needed in this race at 11-1 last year exits a couple of wide trips, #1 is obvious contender returning from Dubai, #8 has back mile races that make him a major player.

R11: #1 is the one to beat off class drop, #3 Jacobson is hot , had poor post in last two when beaten fav in both, #10 was buried behind traffic on inside last time, #5 exits troubled trip, Javy stays, Serpe 3 for 4 Spa meets 2012-14 with horses making 3rd start of the meet.
 
The Fourstardave looks like a terrific race. Result depends on how much pressure the red hot King Kreesa sees on the front end from Skyring and Grand Tito. Last year's race had a hot pace that opened the door for closer Seek Again to win late. This year it looks like King Kreesa will control things a bit better. If so then its 1,4,8 for me as win candidates. Msawish had great form before going to Dubai, may need this race off the 4 month layoff. King Kreesa steps up in class but was terrific at Belmont and has had success at the Spa. Jack Milton is grade 1 proven and is cutting back to his preferred distance.
 
Gandolf said:
The Fourstardave looks like a terrific race. Result depends on how much pressure the red hot King Kreesa sees on the front end from Skyring and Grand Tito. Last year's race had a hot pace that opened the door for closer Seek Again to win late. This year it looks like King Kreesa will control things a bit better. If so then its 1,4,8 for me as win candidates. Msawish had great form before going to Dubai, may need this race off the 4 month layoff. King Kreesa steps up in class but was terrific at Belmont and has had success at the Spa. Jack Milton is grade 1 proven and is cutting back to his preferred distance.
Click to expand...
Totally agree, best of luck today. I like the Arlington races as well, did you look at them?
 
Play2win said:
Totally agree, best of luck today. I like the Arlington races as well, did you look at them?
Click to expand...

I looked at the Secretariat, Beverly D and Million. Think the Euros have the edge in the first two and Big Blue Kitten and Slumber will battle for the Million. Hard to differentiate between the Euros so I'll be playing 3,6,7/6,8,9,10/2,4. Looking for some inspiration in the St. Leger but it looks like a quirky race. Good luck today!
 
Arlington R7 my 9 is scratched no thoughts
R8: #6
R9: 9 the best but may also use 8,10
R10: 2 and 5
 
Gandolf said:
I looked at the Secretariat, Beverly D and Million. Think the Euros have the edge in the first two and Big Blue Kitten and Slumber will battle for the Million. Hard to differentiate between the Euros so I'll be playing 3,6,7/6,8,9,10/2,4. Looking for some inspiration in the St. Leger but it looks like a quirky race.
Click to expand...
:shake:
 
Just against Big Blue Kitten since he had better trip than Slumber, who has been pointing for this all year
 
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