Saratoga Race Course 2013
- Thread starter Play2win
- Start date
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Thanks. In race 4 Insolvent looks like he can clear the field and make life miserable for the pressers. If they go with him then it sets the table for Hot Tempo to make a last to first style rush. Chloe Bear and Bozique are both threats at a price, but they'll both be at single digits with the scratch of the 3.
In race 5 Clear Pasaj is going to try to do what he does best, get to the lead and wire. If the 1 and 2 try to pressure then I see Willet getting first run ahead of the 6.
Could've gone 5 deep in the 6th with the 4 and 8 both reasonable choices. Settled on Logan Street as the most likely choice, with Hardrocker showing an affinity for the Saratoga turf and the Euriagena drawing in with the hot connections and 1 for 1 at the distance.
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Good stuff, Gandolf. Can't find too much to argue with there, I find Bozique interesting at the price, as well.
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Race 3: Pick 3 2,3,7/2,5,9/3,4
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
And Play makes another great call. :cheers:
TheHbomb
Pretty much a regular
'an_horse'
TheHbomb
Pretty much a regular
Play on Playa
TheHbomb
Pretty much a regular
:clapping:
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 7 - #9 is obvious use as he looks to have the best early speed and broke his maiden last out wiring the field. Key to the race is what the #3 does stretching out, if he pressures the 9 then some of the more experienced horses can get there late. #2 and #6 both have back class that can win this comfortably.
Race 8 - Brutal race. #2 was OK in first effort, should move forward. #3 and #8 both moved back up into MSW class after running well in the claimers, both trainers are 20+% with this move. #6, #7 and #9 all finished in the photo at this level last out. Will make the 4 and 5 beat me but they both can improve in their 2nd turf tries. #1 is about the only confident throw out.
Race 8 - Brutal race. #2 was OK in first effort, should move forward. #3 and #8 both moved back up into MSW class after running well in the claimers, both trainers are 20+% with this move. #6, #7 and #9 all finished in the photo at this level last out. Will make the 4 and 5 beat me but they both can improve in their 2nd turf tries. #1 is about the only confident throw out.
TheHbomb
Pretty much a regular
Fuego
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
also R7: WIN #8 and EBX 8/9
TheHbomb
Pretty much a regular
I'm throwing $40 on that exacta because you are on fire.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 9 - The #5 and #6 are both scratched, which is a shame since their closing style would've been perfect against this group of almost all pressers. Have to use #4 the way Rosario is riding. #8 has the best back class and likes to win. #10 is the lone stalker in the field, is lightly raced but has a 9 furlong win under his belt. #3 comes out of a good effort in a restricted stake.
Race #10 - Total crapshoot. Four horses are a combined 0 for 33 with 24 times in the money. Then you've got five second-timers sporting Johnny V, Rosario, Lezcano, Castellano and Corny V on board. I'm gonna have to side with the 2nd timer #1, 2, 5, 6 and 11.
$30 Pick 4 - 9/2,3,6,7,8,9/4,10/1,2,5,6,11 hope for prices in the maidens
Race #10 - Total crapshoot. Four horses are a combined 0 for 33 with 24 times in the money. Then you've got five second-timers sporting Johnny V, Rosario, Lezcano, Castellano and Corny V on board. I'm gonna have to side with the 2nd timer #1, 2, 5, 6 and 11.
$30 Pick 4 - 9/2,3,6,7,8,9/4,10/1,2,5,6,11 hope for prices in the maidens
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
I just watched pan and head on replay...no trouble that I could see for #2, actually thought she had a perfect ground saving trip...hard for me to have that winner, Levine stretchouts on turf not exactly a big angle.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
So 3 horses in the two maiden races went up in class from the maiden claiming ranks. In one race one of them went off at 34-1 and finished 2nd. In the other race one of them went off at 22-1 and won. Is that a boutique meet angle to put in the files, or just a weird coincidence?
Lumineuse was really hard to back. If Christophe Clement, one of the premier turf trainers in the WORLD, didn't think to try this horse more than once on the grass, where she gave a what was described as a "choppy" effort, then what is there that would make me want to put $ on her? Especially after she had gone 0 for 5 as a favorite? She had all the look of a money burner.
Lumineuse was really hard to back. If Christophe Clement, one of the premier turf trainers in the WORLD, didn't think to try this horse more than once on the grass, where she gave a what was described as a "choppy" effort, then what is there that would make me want to put $ on her? Especially after she had gone 0 for 5 as a favorite? She had all the look of a money burner.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
The Grade 1, $1 million Travers on Saturday is shaping up to be a showdown between Kentucky Derby winner Orb, Belmont Stakes victor Palace Malice, and Haskell Invitational hero Verrazano. Also probable are Kentucky Derby runner-up Golden Soul, seventh in the Haskell in his most recent start; Grade 2 Dwyer winner Moreno, third in the Jim Dandy; Romansh, who was promoted to victory in the Curlin Stakes; Transparent, disqualified from first and placed fifth in the Curlin; War Dancer, who is switching from turf to dirt after taking the Grade 2 Virginia Derby; and Grade 2 Rebel winner Will Take Charge, second in the Jim Dandy, according to NYRA stakes coordinator Andrew Byrnes.
The Travers card will be complemented by three additional graded stakes: the Grade 1, $500,000 Foxwoods King's Bishop for 3-year-olds, the Grade 1, $500,000 Test for 3-year-old fillies, and the Grade 2, $250,000 Ketel One Ballston Spa for fillies and mares.In the seven-furlong Foxwoods King's Bishop, Forty Tales will attempt to win his fourth straight stakes, having already captured the Grade 3 Derby Trial, Grade 2 Woody Stephens presented by NYRA Rewards, and Grade 2 Amsterdam, all at margins between a neck and three-quarters of a length. Salutos Amigos and Declan's Warrior, third and fifth, respectively, in the Amsterdam, also are probable for the Foxwoods King's Bishop, as are Smirnoff Sorbet Quick Call top-two finishers Central Banker and No Distinction, and Let Em Shine and Majestic Hussar. Bad Hombre and Mentor Cane are possible.
The Test, also at seven furlongs, will serve as a rematch between Grade 1 Prioress top-three finishers Lighthouse Bay, Wildcat Lily, and Irish Lute. They'll face Grade 3 Victory Ride heroine Baby J, I'm Mom's Favorite, My Happy Face, So Many Ways, and Sweet Lulu. Ju Ju Eyeballs is possible.
The Ketel One Ballston Spa at 1 1/16 miles on the turf is expected to attract Laughing, who won the Grade 1 Diana on July 27 for owner Richard Santulli, as well as Diana fourth- and fifth-place finishers Samitar and Centre Court. Also probable are Better Lucky, Hessonite, Hungry Island, Miz Ida, and Somali Lemonade. Embarr is possible.
On Sunday, Saratoga will present the Grade 1, $600,000 Personal Ensign Invitational Handicap for fillies and mares. Two-time champion Royal Delta, who won the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap by 10 ¾ lengths on July 20, will attempt to make amends for her runner-up performance as the odds-on favorite in last year's Personal Ensign. The provisional field also includes Authenticity, who captured the Grade 3 84 Lumber Shuvee Handicap on July 20 at the Spa, Centring, Flashy American, Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap heroine On Fire Baby, and Open Water.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Saratoga 8/21
Race 4: I will be making a decent win bet on #4 Hamp (12-1 ML) - played him on 7/28 and was beaten by Winning Cause (#1) that day...Hamp steadied in between horses entering turn 1, steadied on backside, steadied entering and through stretch, horrible ride by Lezcano keeping him buried on inside, lost more ground when eventually angled out around eventual winner...since that race I've been watching for Hamp to run back, since he shipped in for race on 7/28...I figured he would be running on a different circuit...the fact that he shipped back to Laurel home base and back to Spa is a positive, they like there chances and want to win @ Saratoga...two races back I thought Hamp was pretty impressive winning @ Colonial while running down the two speeds, they weren't exactly sizzling fractions for Hamp to run into.
WIN #4 and EBX #1/4
Race 4: I will be making a decent win bet on #4 Hamp (12-1 ML) - played him on 7/28 and was beaten by Winning Cause (#1) that day...Hamp steadied in between horses entering turn 1, steadied on backside, steadied entering and through stretch, horrible ride by Lezcano keeping him buried on inside, lost more ground when eventually angled out around eventual winner...since that race I've been watching for Hamp to run back, since he shipped in for race on 7/28...I figured he would be running on a different circuit...the fact that he shipped back to Laurel home base and back to Spa is a positive, they like there chances and want to win @ Saratoga...two races back I thought Hamp was pretty impressive winning @ Colonial while running down the two speeds, they weren't exactly sizzling fractions for Hamp to run into.
WIN #4 and EBX #1/4
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Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Cool. I was looking for a longshot for dime-a-day tomorrow, was thinking Disaster Relief in the finale but there's a better chance of scooping the pot with a winner earlier in the day. Hamp's form is dark enough that he should hold his price pretty well. :shake:
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
yeah, I thought #2,8,10 all interesting @ a price in the 10th.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Yeah I'll probably be on the 2 if I can't find something in these next four. Hamp was bet too cheap to play in that contest.
The 2 is also interesting in this next one (6th).
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R8 Pk 3 #3/4/8,10
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
8/23 Spa
R8: Weather has been great but thunder storms likely this evening...really hope if they do come that it doesn't mess with the turf races...if on turf, I love #7 Jitney (10-1 ML)...caught her both times winning turf sprints at this meet last year at odds of close to 8-1 and then 13-1 the 2nd time...then she caught yielding turf @ Belmont (still only beaten 1 3/4 lengths), then 6 dirt races in a row...now returns turf sprinting @ Spa which was 2 of her best career races, and should get a solid pace to run into...if on turf, likely my best play of the day...esp if decent odds.
R8: Weather has been great but thunder storms likely this evening...really hope if they do come that it doesn't mess with the turf races...if on turf, I love #7 Jitney (10-1 ML)...caught her both times winning turf sprints at this meet last year at odds of close to 8-1 and then 13-1 the 2nd time...then she caught yielding turf @ Belmont (still only beaten 1 3/4 lengths), then 6 dirt races in a row...now returns turf sprinting @ Spa which was 2 of her best career races, and should get a solid pace to run into...if on turf, likely my best play of the day...esp if decent odds.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Jitney is my main play today...but plenty of other plays and thoughts on todays G1 Ballerina card...
R1: #1 Havana will take plenty of action and has the looks of being one of Todd's better 2yo colts considering the amount they paid for him (10k stud fee and purchased for 575k) at Barretts March Sale where he worked 1F in 9.3, however considering the short price he'll likely be and the fact that he's a firster breaking from the rail and 2yo 1sters by Dunkirk only 1 for 17, i'll take a shot against him...the two im looking at are sort of similar, #6 and #7 both have the edge of having a race under their belt...both likely to improve 2nd out for trainers that excel at improving 2yo's 2nd time out and in their debuts both were caught chasing good looking winners, A Touch of Poetry caught chasing Twang (Stall) and Financial Mogul caught chasing Big Sugar Soda (Asmussen).
R2: #3 The Lumber Guy returns to NY and back in the hands of Hushion...likely not 100% sharp today off the long layoff, as great of a trainer as Hushion is his 180+ layoff numbers are poor, and this race serves as a prep to get The Lumber Guy back to the races to possibly get him ready for the Vosburgh and BC Sprint...Either #2 or #5 could win this imo.
R3: #1 Crackerjack Jones - pretty good looking winner @ meet and #2 Dehere of the Cat - off two troubled trips, are the main players in here imo.
R4: tough race but could be a good betting race if you can get past heavy fav #1 Yo Blue - 2nd off claim, drop down for Ramsey/Maker, #7 is logical - his two turf races were ok...interesting ones are #4 (10-1 ML) and #9 (5-1 ML)...#4 Bashful Bandit is off the claim and had no chance last time after not having clear run, steady/check in between and in behind...#9 Coach A.J. is dangerous drop down speed, exits a race that's like Stakes compared to this group and was running a solid race while leading @ 16-1 before bounced off rail and pulled up.
R5: #1 Maybrys Challenge will take money here, love Weaver and he's having a great meet but only 1 for 17 L5 years w/ 2yo 1sters in turf sprints, winner came @ current meet...#2 Momma's Mark is my top choice and live at a price, his dirt sprint debut is ugly but maybe was turf meant all along, being that his dam won on turf (1st turf) and is a half bro to two other turf winners, trainer has won @ Spa in past with a 2yo 2nd time starter going dirt to Ny bred Msw turf sprint...sneaky...#3 may take $ because Javy aboard and trainer (Capuano) won w/ 1ster the other day (So Lonesome) and 4 works match, however that winner won on dirt, this turf...#7 Ainteasybeinggreen...filly that faced open company colts in debut, now vs Ny bred colts could be the main speed and big trainer move, Ward is 7 for 15 L5 years with 2yo 2nd time starters in Msw turf sprints.
R6: not one of the better races on the card may pass but #1 and #4 likely favs and both drop downs, ive been chasing #9 El Dreamer (10-1 ML) in his last two races, maybe worth one more shot.
R7: again, not a great race...20k beaten claimers, but is open race...on turf and part of Pk 4...#3 Queenie's Gold (8-1 ML) is pretty interesting, Rivelli ships to win...two back won a turf sprint @ 5.5F then stretched out to 1 3/8 on turf and jumped out to a 15 length lead before tiring, have to wonder if those were trainers instructions and that race simply served as a prep to come to Saratoga and pop at a price? #6,7,8,9 all figure also.
R8: Days best, #7 Jitney (10-1 ML) see above write up.
R9: Very good field for 35th running of G1 Ballerina. #1 Dance to Bristol has been impressive winning six in a row, now draws rail vs best field she's faced to date...could get it done but too tough of a spot to stand alone with her imo, #5 Book Review ships in from West coast for Baffert...Book Review has 5 wins (5 for 6) at 7F and rest of field combined only 6 wins at 7F...so distance could be a big factor...Book Review's last 7f race on conventional dirt (not Synth) was a win vs Reneesgotzip who's razor sharp right now, so another positive...#6 and #8 both exit Princess Rooney @ Calder and both figure in here, #8 Judy the Beauty - had a tough trip and now picks up Rosario.
R10: very difficult, wide open race...one of days best betting races possibly. #2,9,12 are my top contenders and #11 - after winning and being DQ'd, maybe worth a look...although Catalano having a cold meet (1 for 15). #2 improved adding Lasix and now 2nd Lasix and 2nd off layoff, every right to improve again...#9 Amoss cold this meet and I really need him to get a win so I can bet So Many Ways on Saturday, lol...troubled trip in debut that featured impressive 1st turf winner from Motion and 2nd place finisher came back to win, Amoss has been very solid this year (34%) with his maiden 2nd time starters...#12 has a negative post and I really wanted to bet him back in a dirt race after the improvement he showed in what I thought was a solid field...now switches to turf for Mott and does have some turf breeding, two of three winning sibs won on turf.
Still working on 14 race Travers card, will have thoughts later today.
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Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, good stuff. BOL today.
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