RSMS9999
The Prodigy
Back for another season, hopefully with the same success as last year. After the Dixon injury I couldn't think about college football for a couple months so I cut my season off at around week 9 but it was a successful year in the end. Didn't have the time to put in the required effort into any other sports since but I am back for another season of hard work in the best sport there is. I look forward to the great discussion that goes on here especially in grabbing the early lines sunday morning. Getting the lines in those first couple minutes I know for sure added a lot to my returns and I recommend these boards sunday to anyone who hasn't participated. Also doubling my unit $ this year so that is the reason the plays are smaller at least at first.
Anyway, last years Record
2007 Record 47-26-1 (+49.78 Units)
ATS 31-16-1 (+37.34 Units)
ATS 2H 0-1 (-1.65 Units)
ML 2-5 (-6.08 Units)
Totals 12-6 (+17.00 Units)
Team Totals 1-0(+3 Units)
2008 Record 0-0-0 (+00.00 Units)
ATS 0-0-0 (+00.00 Units)
Totals 0-0-0 (+00.00 Units)
Futures:
North Carolina Tar Heels Over 6.5 Wins +105 (1 Unit)
I look for North Carolina to be one of college footballs most improved teams in college football this season. There are plenty of reasons for this opinion. One, they return 18 starters to a team that wasn’t as bad as their record indicated last season. Two, I believe in their coaching staff and think Davis is one of the leagues best and that will show this year. Third, they play in the absolutely shitty ACC, where anyone can win and overall, their schedule is not intimidating at all. They have a legitimate shot at winning every game. I think they piece together at least 7 wins.
South Carolina Gamecocks Over 7.5 Wins –125 (1 Unit)
I think I had this exact same bet last year and it looked terrific before the devastating collapse, when they lost their last 5 games. They were injury riddled last year and I see a strong return this season. They have a terrific defense and I have faith that Spurrior will put together a good enough O to go with it. Schedule wise, I really like what they are looking at. Discounting the final two games (@Clemson and Florida) they should be able to win 8 out of their first 10. Roadies @Vandy, Kentucky and Ole Miss should yield at least 2 wins, probably 3. Homewise, challenges include LSU, Georgia and LSU. I see at least 2 out of 3 there too. This team is too talented and ahs too friendly a schedule for another wasted season.
West Virginia Mountaineers Under 9.5 Wins +120 (1 Unit)
Now this line is way too low for my liking but I am taking a shot anyway. If ever a team was in for a fall from grace it is West Virginia. They are set up for disaster, plain and clear to me, somewhere along the lines of Louisville last year. WVU has been riding way too high these last few years and I feel like its time to come crashing down. By all accounts they hired a mediocre coach, are missing a lot from last years team and have plenty on distractions. I think it is USFs time to shine in the Big East. Schedule wise, it is not that difficult but I see this team crashing and burning, although Auburn looks like a loss.
Week 1:
USC Trojans @ Virginia Cavaliers
August 30th 2008
Line: USC Trojans –21 –110
Analysis: USC Offense vs. Virginia Defense
This is the matchup that will highlight the start differences between the 07 Trojans and the 08 Trojans, as well as the 07 Cavs and the 08 Cavs. The Trojans underachieved tremendously on offense last season and it is hard to understand exactly why but I think it can be best attributed to injuries and youth/inexperience at the skill positions. This year they return only 4 starters on offense but I see an increase in consistency and improvement in the offense and an overall very solid unit. Sanchez is the man this year, and starting the season off as a starter should leave him comfortable and productive. The running backs and receivers are very talented and know their roles better this season and should see a lot of success. The Oline is newish but they should be fine as well. On the other side we have the UVA defense which was the heart and soul of their successful 07 team. This unit kept them in all of their games and allowed them to pile up all of those close wins. The strong D was led by a terrific D line headed by Chris Long, but sadly the entire unit is gone. The secondary is almost all gone as well. Even with a solid LB corps, this goes from a very strong D to a mediocre unit. What does all this say about this game? This is a polished USC offense that will come in well coached with a plan to execute versus a green UVA defense that will not nearly be ready to handle it. USC should be able to run the ball at will and Sanchez should have success in the air when he wants to. I expect USC to be able to do what they want and come out with a fairly conservative game plan that will churn out plenty of long and productive drives. Even with the low point outputs the last couple of years with USC, if you look at their nonconference games (06- 50@Arkansas, 28 vs. Nebraska, 44 vs. Notre Dame, 32 vs. Michigan, 07- 38 vs. Idaho, 49@Nebraska, 38@Notre Dame, 49 vs. Illinois), they are still putting up big totals. I see an offensive output somewhere in the neighborhood of the high 30s or low 40s.
Analysis: Virginia Offense vs. USC Defense
On the other side UVA had a lot of success last year due to a lot of things, but offense was not one of them. A new QB that appears to be nothing special, an average RB unit, weak wideouts and line should spell a lot of trouble. Honestly, there is not much to talk about here. UVA will struggle to score against anyone this season and when you place them up against one of the nations best defenses in USC, they are likely not to have much success here either. With 7 returning starters and amazing talent, this SC defense should be a brick wall. Terrific at the line, linebackers and secondary. SC’s front seven should dominate the Cavs Oline and stuff the run early. When UVA is forced to pass, they should get plenty of pressure and their wideouts will not have success against SC’s back line. There is just no formula for offensive success here. I would be shocked if they exceed 13 points.
Overall Analysis
I normally hate betting big lines because it becomes more about predicting score than about picking winners which I think is harder and I have had less success with over the years, but I think this is a great spot. Other “issues” such as special teams and coaching are ridiculously lopsided in SC’s favor. This just seems like a textbook blowout. While USC at Stanford last year also fit that description, I believe that this year we will be in for a lot less surprises just due to the law of balance. The final tidbit for this game is that is reminds me strikingly of the USC-Notre Dame game last year. I see UVA’s offensive ineptness this year to rival ND’s last year and they should be very similar teams. USC on the road, nonconference, same kind of line, I see the same kind of result. I think it will be the exact same kind of game and the score to be around 38-0. Hoping for a repeat.
USC Trojans -21 -110 (3 Units)
Michigan State Spartans @ California Golden Bears
August 30th 2008
Line: California Golden Bears –5 –110
Analysis: California Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Tons of questions exist for Cal’s once vaunted offensive machine. QB troubles, injuries and overall team turmoil led to a wiltering of the unit down the stretch last season and they have just 4 returning starters, no Forsett, no Desean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins or Robert Jordan. But I am very optimistic. Tedford knows how to run an offense and the massive underachievment last year leads me to believe in a bounceback for not just the team but for the offense in 08. It all starts upfront and the line should be terrific. Jahvid Best is an exciting runner and I think he will rush for a lot of yards this year and produce a productive rushing attack. Obviously the passing game has questions but I have faith in Tedford to figure it out and have some success. Overall, even with the questions I have faith that they will be able to use a fresh start to get back to the days of great O at Berkeley. In this game they are facing a decidedly mediocre MSU defense that consistently gives up a lot of points. I think Cal should have success on offense passing and running and put plenty of points on the board.
Analysis: Michigan State Offense vs. California Defense
The real reason for California’s demise last year was its young and weak defense. Essentially ignored by “experts” and the entire college football world at the beginning of last year (this was never a top 10 team), the so-called shocking fall from grace was easily foreseeable. This year the defense is more experienced and should be a lot better. Led by a great group of LBs and a solid line and secondary, this unit will no longer be a weakness. Now, MSU can put up the points with a solid passing game and a great RB in Ringer, but they are not an exceptional unit. They will get their points , but I think Cal’s D will get some stops and make it tough for MSU to really pile on the points.
Overall Analysis
California is one of my major surprise teams this season. You see this pattern a lot in college football and I expect to take full advantage of it here. This team reminds me a lot of Oregon in 2005. Cal was exceptionally overrated last year to start the season and their schedule and defense would never allow them to be as great as some thought they were. After a couple of tough losses, the team was thrown in turmoil due to lack of leadership and just gave up at the end. Now they are as underrated now as they were overrated at the beginning of last season. This is a play on this theory as much as anything else. To be honest I do not have much of a grip on MSU, but If I am right about Cal they shuld have no problem beating a middle of the pack Big 10 team at home by more than a TD. I am slightly worried about MSU scoring more than I would like and also considering the over when it comes out if there is a good number. I do not see Cal losing this game and 5 seems short.
California Golden Bears –110 (1.5 Units)
also considering Stanford and the over in the arizona game if the number is right.
Anyway, last years Record
2007 Record 47-26-1 (+49.78 Units)
ATS 31-16-1 (+37.34 Units)
ATS 2H 0-1 (-1.65 Units)
ML 2-5 (-6.08 Units)
Totals 12-6 (+17.00 Units)
Team Totals 1-0(+3 Units)
2008 Record 0-0-0 (+00.00 Units)
ATS 0-0-0 (+00.00 Units)
Totals 0-0-0 (+00.00 Units)
Futures:
North Carolina Tar Heels Over 6.5 Wins +105 (1 Unit)
I look for North Carolina to be one of college footballs most improved teams in college football this season. There are plenty of reasons for this opinion. One, they return 18 starters to a team that wasn’t as bad as their record indicated last season. Two, I believe in their coaching staff and think Davis is one of the leagues best and that will show this year. Third, they play in the absolutely shitty ACC, where anyone can win and overall, their schedule is not intimidating at all. They have a legitimate shot at winning every game. I think they piece together at least 7 wins.
South Carolina Gamecocks Over 7.5 Wins –125 (1 Unit)
I think I had this exact same bet last year and it looked terrific before the devastating collapse, when they lost their last 5 games. They were injury riddled last year and I see a strong return this season. They have a terrific defense and I have faith that Spurrior will put together a good enough O to go with it. Schedule wise, I really like what they are looking at. Discounting the final two games (@Clemson and Florida) they should be able to win 8 out of their first 10. Roadies @Vandy, Kentucky and Ole Miss should yield at least 2 wins, probably 3. Homewise, challenges include LSU, Georgia and LSU. I see at least 2 out of 3 there too. This team is too talented and ahs too friendly a schedule for another wasted season.
West Virginia Mountaineers Under 9.5 Wins +120 (1 Unit)
Now this line is way too low for my liking but I am taking a shot anyway. If ever a team was in for a fall from grace it is West Virginia. They are set up for disaster, plain and clear to me, somewhere along the lines of Louisville last year. WVU has been riding way too high these last few years and I feel like its time to come crashing down. By all accounts they hired a mediocre coach, are missing a lot from last years team and have plenty on distractions. I think it is USFs time to shine in the Big East. Schedule wise, it is not that difficult but I see this team crashing and burning, although Auburn looks like a loss.
Week 1:
USC Trojans @ Virginia Cavaliers
August 30th 2008
Line: USC Trojans –21 –110
Analysis: USC Offense vs. Virginia Defense
This is the matchup that will highlight the start differences between the 07 Trojans and the 08 Trojans, as well as the 07 Cavs and the 08 Cavs. The Trojans underachieved tremendously on offense last season and it is hard to understand exactly why but I think it can be best attributed to injuries and youth/inexperience at the skill positions. This year they return only 4 starters on offense but I see an increase in consistency and improvement in the offense and an overall very solid unit. Sanchez is the man this year, and starting the season off as a starter should leave him comfortable and productive. The running backs and receivers are very talented and know their roles better this season and should see a lot of success. The Oline is newish but they should be fine as well. On the other side we have the UVA defense which was the heart and soul of their successful 07 team. This unit kept them in all of their games and allowed them to pile up all of those close wins. The strong D was led by a terrific D line headed by Chris Long, but sadly the entire unit is gone. The secondary is almost all gone as well. Even with a solid LB corps, this goes from a very strong D to a mediocre unit. What does all this say about this game? This is a polished USC offense that will come in well coached with a plan to execute versus a green UVA defense that will not nearly be ready to handle it. USC should be able to run the ball at will and Sanchez should have success in the air when he wants to. I expect USC to be able to do what they want and come out with a fairly conservative game plan that will churn out plenty of long and productive drives. Even with the low point outputs the last couple of years with USC, if you look at their nonconference games (06- 50@Arkansas, 28 vs. Nebraska, 44 vs. Notre Dame, 32 vs. Michigan, 07- 38 vs. Idaho, 49@Nebraska, 38@Notre Dame, 49 vs. Illinois), they are still putting up big totals. I see an offensive output somewhere in the neighborhood of the high 30s or low 40s.
Analysis: Virginia Offense vs. USC Defense
On the other side UVA had a lot of success last year due to a lot of things, but offense was not one of them. A new QB that appears to be nothing special, an average RB unit, weak wideouts and line should spell a lot of trouble. Honestly, there is not much to talk about here. UVA will struggle to score against anyone this season and when you place them up against one of the nations best defenses in USC, they are likely not to have much success here either. With 7 returning starters and amazing talent, this SC defense should be a brick wall. Terrific at the line, linebackers and secondary. SC’s front seven should dominate the Cavs Oline and stuff the run early. When UVA is forced to pass, they should get plenty of pressure and their wideouts will not have success against SC’s back line. There is just no formula for offensive success here. I would be shocked if they exceed 13 points.
Overall Analysis
I normally hate betting big lines because it becomes more about predicting score than about picking winners which I think is harder and I have had less success with over the years, but I think this is a great spot. Other “issues” such as special teams and coaching are ridiculously lopsided in SC’s favor. This just seems like a textbook blowout. While USC at Stanford last year also fit that description, I believe that this year we will be in for a lot less surprises just due to the law of balance. The final tidbit for this game is that is reminds me strikingly of the USC-Notre Dame game last year. I see UVA’s offensive ineptness this year to rival ND’s last year and they should be very similar teams. USC on the road, nonconference, same kind of line, I see the same kind of result. I think it will be the exact same kind of game and the score to be around 38-0. Hoping for a repeat.
USC Trojans -21 -110 (3 Units)
Michigan State Spartans @ California Golden Bears
August 30th 2008
Line: California Golden Bears –5 –110
Analysis: California Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Tons of questions exist for Cal’s once vaunted offensive machine. QB troubles, injuries and overall team turmoil led to a wiltering of the unit down the stretch last season and they have just 4 returning starters, no Forsett, no Desean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins or Robert Jordan. But I am very optimistic. Tedford knows how to run an offense and the massive underachievment last year leads me to believe in a bounceback for not just the team but for the offense in 08. It all starts upfront and the line should be terrific. Jahvid Best is an exciting runner and I think he will rush for a lot of yards this year and produce a productive rushing attack. Obviously the passing game has questions but I have faith in Tedford to figure it out and have some success. Overall, even with the questions I have faith that they will be able to use a fresh start to get back to the days of great O at Berkeley. In this game they are facing a decidedly mediocre MSU defense that consistently gives up a lot of points. I think Cal should have success on offense passing and running and put plenty of points on the board.
Analysis: Michigan State Offense vs. California Defense
The real reason for California’s demise last year was its young and weak defense. Essentially ignored by “experts” and the entire college football world at the beginning of last year (this was never a top 10 team), the so-called shocking fall from grace was easily foreseeable. This year the defense is more experienced and should be a lot better. Led by a great group of LBs and a solid line and secondary, this unit will no longer be a weakness. Now, MSU can put up the points with a solid passing game and a great RB in Ringer, but they are not an exceptional unit. They will get their points , but I think Cal’s D will get some stops and make it tough for MSU to really pile on the points.
Overall Analysis
California is one of my major surprise teams this season. You see this pattern a lot in college football and I expect to take full advantage of it here. This team reminds me a lot of Oregon in 2005. Cal was exceptionally overrated last year to start the season and their schedule and defense would never allow them to be as great as some thought they were. After a couple of tough losses, the team was thrown in turmoil due to lack of leadership and just gave up at the end. Now they are as underrated now as they were overrated at the beginning of last season. This is a play on this theory as much as anything else. To be honest I do not have much of a grip on MSU, but If I am right about Cal they shuld have no problem beating a middle of the pack Big 10 team at home by more than a TD. I am slightly worried about MSU scoring more than I would like and also considering the over when it comes out if there is a good number. I do not see Cal losing this game and 5 seems short.
California Golden Bears –110 (1.5 Units)
also considering Stanford and the over in the arizona game if the number is right.
