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ESPN's Handicappers Picks Week #11

bones

We Must Protect Our Democracy

Busy on projects at the homestead. Just got a quick listen and this is best I can do. Apologies.

Will not be around on the weekend and will not watch a single game.

Best Bet: Tennessee ML -115 LOSE BIGLY

Ole Miss @ GA-11

Ole Miss has balanced offense. Judkins is very good and three excellent receivers, one of whom was ranked #1 receiver last week by PFF. They are in top 20 in epa per run and pass. Ole Miss is not good on 3rd and 4th down. In fact, on the road only 2 teams, Hawaii and Sam Houston, rank lower in third down success. Ole Miss scores only an avg of 25 points on the road. GA defense is not as good as last year, but that is hard to do. They will be missing a starting linebacker who is out. They have been susceptible to the running game on a few occasions – very few as I recall. GA is starting to get pressure on the QB that they did not show early in season. Slight edge to GA here.

Ole Miss defense is “average.” GA offence will be able to expose the Old Miss secondary. The best ‘data point’ for Ole Miss defense was last week vs A&M, which had 4 straight drives of 75+ yards without their best talent available. GA’s Bowers has completion rate up there with Nix. GA offense will be difficult for this defense to stop.

Bottom line, no enthusiasm or real path found for Ole Miss to win this game. I sensed they think that GA can cover the -11 line.

Michigan @ Penn State +4.5
Michigan has won all games by 24+. Very critical of their SOS. Franklin has bad record agst Michigan & Ohio State and against Top 10 teams since at Vandy to present.

Michigan has played nobody they repeat. Powers has some concerns re the MI offense but they have good counting stats. But, the running backs, Corum and Edwards, are not nearly as good as last year. And attributes more passing this year on lack of run success. The PSU defense is highly rated and Michigan has begun to allow more sacks. The edge would go to PSU D…but he cannot get last year’s ass whooping out of his mind

PSU scores 30 against everyone except OSU. Michigan defense is good but have weak SOS. Still, Payne thinks they are good and Allar and PSU tell you they cannot do this vs Wolverines. He “does not see a world where PSU can sustain drives.” He thinks a fairer line wud be 5.5. He also sees Total leaking upward b/c he thinks that neither team can run and passing going to be required. Payne says “I don’t have a good feel for the game….tough handicap.”

Sensed a lean to Michigan ATS, but only slightly.

Utah @ Washington -9.5
Weather may be a factor…rain and wind likely?

Payne says Utah offense depends on the run and they can have success…will it be enough? There are injury concerns with Jackson and the backs. Vaki is not expected to play as much, if any, as he has in past games (did not play on O in last game). Utah has bad pass attack and pass receivers, Barnes is not consistent. Pass blocking is not good and Barnes holds the ball. They may try and play up tempo? Weather if it comes may help Utah.

Powers examines Wash offense vs Utah defense. Utah needs to get pressure on Penix, but Washington o line is good. He has some concerns re Penix being forced into mistakes. Dillion Johnson running is good for Huskies. He has good things to say re Utah defense. But gives slight edge to Washington offense. He too warns of weather concerns affecting scoring and offense.

USC @ Oregon -15
2 highest scoring teams and total avg is 93 pts per game. Ducks defense is good but average against the run. They have mentioned several times this year the Caleb Willimas’ playground play and his lack of care of ball. There may be more USC running this week and Powers gives a slight edge to USC offense against Ducks defense.

Payne says Oregon offense against USC is largest mismatch of the weekend and the football season. He criticizes Lincoln Riley running a lazy program. He attributes the bad defense to this attitude and adds to that the fact USC has a bad front 7 talent level on defense. He also says USC recruiting and retention of players may be in trouble. I heard nothing positive to think USC gets an upset.

Tenny @ Mizzu +1.5
Powers thinks Tenny can run the ball against Mizzu…likes all 3 RBs and that can wear on defense. Can Milton take care of ball? He does not like Tenny receivers. Pass blocking is not the best. Mizzu has “decent players” but avg. Mizzu will load in the box and force Tenny to pass. Slight edge to Tenny bc of good running game. Payne thinks the current betting line is correct. He does not think Mizzu can run against Tenny. Tenny front is good and top 15 agst the run. Game comes down to Brady Cook and the pass…but their pass game is not explosive. Good news is Cook fast on his release. Luther Burden for Mizzu is hurt and that is bad for the Mizzu offense.

They lean to Tenny it seems. May be a strong lean.

Powers Non-Power 5 pick. He’s 5-2 last 7 as I recall and lost last week.
He takes San Jose State rather strongly. Has line at Pick. Do not think he wud care if it was the -1 I am seeing. Payne piped in and agreed. WIN BIGLY
 
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Travis; He's just at 500 for season. I think he was same last week


I did this quickly. I think many lines are no longer the same as he has.

VA @ Ville UNDER 51 LOST
Bama @ KY +10.5 LOST
Vandy @ SoCarolina OVER 57.5 LOST
Michigan at PennState +5.5 LOST
Old Dominion @ Liberty OVER 57.5 LOST
NCST @ Wake Under 44.5 WIN
Rutgers @ IOWA UNDER 28.5 WIN
Fla @ LSU OVER 63.5 WIN
Auburn @ ARK -2.5 LOSE
Ole Miss +11.5 @ GA LOSE
Messy @ A&M -17.5 UNDER 44.5 WIN LOSE
Duke +10.5 @ UNC WIN
USC @ OREGON OVER 74.5 LOSE
 
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No idea how he did last week. I'll update next week hopefully. You can go back and look

His Picks this week:
UTSA -14.5 WIN
ODU +13.5 LOSE
Wake +2.5 LOSE
UNC -14 LOSE
Cincinnati +2.5 WIN
Charlotte +10 WIN
Best Bet: UCF +2.5 WIN


Sidekick Schwartz: AZST @ UCLA UNDER 44.5 WIN
 
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Me, and I will not see a thing

Michigan -5 WIN
Clemson -14 WIN
Iowa -1 WIN
Miami +14 WIN
Oregon -15 LOSE

I will maybe add the Tenny and San Jose selections from BTB...gotta think about it. They seemed very positive on both and I respect the guys. Looks like lines have moved though
 
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Stanford Steve—(5-3) (33-29) Three Year Record (103-79)
Georgia/Ole Miss o 58x
Penn State +4
Arkansas -2
Missouri +2x
Georgia -11

The Bear—(2-3) (18-30) Three Year Record (98-89)
UTSA -14.5
ODU +13.5
Wake +2.5
UNC -14
Cincinnati +2.5
Charlotte +10
Best Bet: UCF +2.5

Scott Van Pelt—(3-3) (38-43) Three Year Record (164-125)
Wyoming +5x
Penn St +4x
Texas Tech +4
Kentucky +11
Old Dominion +13x
Wake Forest +2
Miami-Florida +14
Utah +9x
UCF +2x

Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(4-5) (46-42) (75-52)

UCF +2x
Oklahoma -12x
Illinois -6x
Cal/Washington State o 58x
Kentucky +10x
Wake Forest +2x
MTSU -11
Wisconsin -10
N Carolina -12x

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five—(2-3) (30-30) Three Year Record (94-100)
Jacksonville +3 27-24
Detroit -3 30-24
Dallas -17x 40-10
Seattle -6x 30-20
Denver +7 27-26

My Picks— (1-1-1) (16-16) Teasers (3-2) (13-12) Three Year Record (150-97)
Michigan -4
UNLV -3
Strong lean Utah, Oregon

Joe Fortenbaugh— (1-1) (17-16) Two Year Record (45-41)
Michigan/Penn St o 44x
Utah +9x
 
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SVP Winners

Wyoming +5x
Penn St +4x
Texas Tech +4
Kentucky +11
Old Dominion +13x
Wake Forest +2
Miami-Florida +14
Utah +9x
UCF +2x

Stanford Steve gave Over 58x Georgia/Mississippi
 
Daily Wager is no more. Cancelled by ESPN. A new betting show called ESPN Bets debuts tomorrow.
This is probably because they are launching their sports book next week. Barstool Sportsbook will be changing to ESPN Bets, so this is a way for them to really hype their online book now that Barstool is out of the business
 
Stanford Steve—(5-3) (33-29) Three Year Record (103-79)
Georgia/Ole Miss o 58x

The Bear—(2-3) (18-30) Three Year Record (98-89)
UTSA -14.5
ODU +13.5
Wake +2.5
UNC -14
Cincinnati +2.5
Charlotte +10
Best Bet: UCF +2.5

Scott Van Pelt—(3-3) (38-43) Three Year Record (164-125)
Wyoming +5x
Penn St +4x
Texas Tech +4
Kentucky +11
Old Dominion +13x
Wake Forest +2
Miami-Florida +14
Utah +9x
UCF +2x

Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(4-5) (46-42) (75-52)

UCF +2x
Oklahoma -12x
Illinois -6x
Cal/Washington State o 58x
Kentucky +10x
Wake Forest +2x
MTSU -11
Wisconsin -10
N Carolina -12x

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five—(2-3) (30-30) Three Year Record (94-100)

My Picks— (1-1-1) (16-16) Teasers (3-2) (13-12) Three Year Record (150-97)

Michigan -4
Strong lean Utah, Oregon

Joe Fortenbaugh— (1-1) (17-16) Two Year Record (45-41)
Michigan/Penn St o 44x
Utah +9x
 
For the life of me I don’t understand what everyone sees with UCF. Am I missing a big injury or something ? Don’t buy the “coming off a big win theory”. They are good team
 
For the life of me I don’t understand what everyone sees with UCF. Am I missing a big injury or something ? Don’t buy the “coming off a big win theory”. They are good team
It’s obviously a flat spot for Oklahoma State but honestly I’m going to be big on the Cowboys. I respect the spot but UCF is simply not a good team. And Oklahoma State has been far better during this run. The ground game with Gordon gives consistency that will travel in any environment. I think it’s 38-24 type of game.
 
Cowherd's Blazin' 5

Jacksonville +3 27-24
Detroit -3 30-24
Dallas -17x 40-10
Seattle -6x 30-20
Denver +7 27-26
 
Added Stanford Steve pick:
Penn State +4

Added UNLV -3 to my picks

SMU starting QB Stone is good to go tonight
 
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Went back and compiled the records for Weeks #s 10 & 11 and Season for each:

BTB:
Week 10 1-0 and Powers 0-1
Week 11 0-1 and Powers 1-0
Season: 7-4 and Powers 6-2 last 8 weeks

Bear:
Week 10 2-3 Sidekick 1-0
Week 11 4-3 Sidekick 1-0
Season: 24-32 Sidekick 2-0 last 2 weeks (no idea season, but I think he is above .500)

Clay Travis:
Week 10 9-8
Week 11 5-9
Season: 73-76-1

Me:
Week 10 5-5-1
Week 11 4-1
Season: 55-48-1
 
Fuck what is show is she on?
lol Daily Wager - guess it got cancelled to line up new show with their sportsbook. She's totally hot and a good capper - the show was a joke because they made them pick a zillion games a day to drive interest - but supposedly recently her best bets had won like 12 in a row. Hope she's on the new show which I'm sure will be comical too.
 
lol Daily Wager - guess it got cancelled to line up new show with their sportsbook. She's totally hot and a good capper - the show was a joke because they made them pick a zillion games a day to drive interest - but supposedly recently her best bets had won like 12 in a row. Hope she's on the new show which I'm sure will be comical too.
She's definitely on it. Kinda sucks Kezerian (sp) left. Good capper. Not a fan of the other two dudes, but she's a definite watch.
 
Week 11 scores.

Stanford Steve—(3--3) (36-32) Three Year Record (103-79)
Georgia/Ole Miss o 58x Win
Penn State +4 Lose
Georgia -11 Win
Arkansas -2x Lose
Colorado State -3x Lose
Missouri +2x Win

The Bear—(4-3) (22-33) Three Year Record (98-89)

UTSA -14.5 Win
ODU +13.5 Lose
Wake +2.5 Lose
UNC -14 Lose
Cincinnati +2.5 Win
Charlotte +10 Win
Best Bet:
UCF +2.5 Win

Scott Van Pelt—(4-5) (42-48) Three Year Record (164-125)

Wyoming +5x Lose
Penn St +4x Lose
Texas Tech +4 Win
Kentucky +11 Lose
Old Dominion +13x Lose
Wake Forest +2 Lose
Miami-Florida +14 Win
Utah +9x Win
UCF +2x Win

Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(4-5) (50-47) (75-52)

UCF +2x Win
Oklahoma -12x Win
Illinois -6x Lose
Cal/Washington State o 58x Win
Kentucky +10x Lose
Wake Forest +2x Lose
MTSU -11 Win
Wisconsin -10 Lose
N Carolina -12x Lose

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five—(2-2-1) (32-32) Three Year Record (94-100)

Jacksonville +3 27-24 Lose
Detroit -3 30-24 Tie
Dallas -17x 40-10 Win
Seattle -6x 30-20 Lose
Denver +7 27-26 Win

My Picks— (3-0) (19-16) Teasers (2-1) (15-13) Three Year Record (150-97)

Michigan -4 Win
UNLV -3 Win
Michigan ML Win
Teasers: Michigan/Oregon W, Georgia/Utah W, Mizzou/Arkansas L

Joe Fortenbaugh— (2-2) (19-18) Two Year Record (45-41)

Michigan/Penn St o 44x Lose
Utah +9x Win
Tennessee -2x Lose
San Jose State +1x Win
 
I haven't seen much difference in Daily Wager and ESPN Bet. Same people who were on Daily Wager except for Kezerian. The new show has a flashier set with different colors, but otherwise is almost identical. The biggest difference is the cast had to leave Vegas and move to Bristol, so no longer any connection to Vegas.

One difference is they list the three biggest public favorites each day (last Saturday the biggest public favorite was Michigan). McElroy was a guest on the show today, but will not be a regular. He said the line for Michigan/Ohio State will be Michigan -5 and if he bets it he will take Michigan.
 
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