Rexy's Week 0 and Week 1 plays...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
What a nice surprise, to get a I-AA game to kick off the season, and a rather high-profile one.

Montana native Brent Musberger gets the play-by-play call from a smoky Missoula today as four-time defending I-AA national champion North Dakota State visits Montana. The Griz were 9-5 last fall, while ND State ended 15-1. The once-proud Griz program hasn't advanced past the second round of the playoffs since 2009, save for a vacated appearance in the 2011 semifinals.

Simply put, I'm excited to get a chance to bet on Bob Stitt.

Those who don't know football coaches (or in my case, have friends who coach in high school who have spoken with him at coaching clinics for years) well won't be aware of what's happening until it hits you later this afternoon.

Stitt has spent the last 15 years coaching at the Division I Colorado School of the Mines, where he compiled a 108-62 record with all math/engineering majors. Obviously, they were almost always physically outclassed, but Stitt's offensive philosophy not only kept the Oregidders competitive, but rather prosperous. Last season, his team averaged 90 plays per game - that was more than Baylor, Oregon and West By God Virginia averaged at the I-A level, and those are the fastest teams in the country.

What makes Stitt's offensive wizardy unique is his versatility - he has been known to run the ball 50 times in a game, and throw it 75 times the next week - it's all based on checks at the line (more checks than base plays). He allows the defense to pick its poison, and then he attacks. Mike Leach at Wazzou described it as "a moving, throwing Wing-T".

To this game:

Last season, ND State beat the Griz 22-10 in Fargo, in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicates. That's because the Bison were just 1-of-5 in red zone conversions and kicked five field goals. One concern is if they bulldoze their way up and down the field like last year, keeping Stitt's offense off the pitch and frustrating the rowdy home supporters at Washington-Grizzly Stadium. ND State blasted its way to 447 yards of total offense. It loses All-American running back John Crockett, who is now training with the Packers after rushing for almost 2,000 yards last fall.

ND State quarterback Carson Wentz threw for more than 3,000 yards last season in his first as a starter. Wentz is a big-time prospect for the next level. He's got size and arm strength. The previous QB got a look from the Dolphins before eventually settling into a role with Ottawa in the Ciffel. Wentz is considered to be a better Niffel prospect, and will certainly latch on somewhere if he doesn't get drafted. If the Griz sell out to try to stop the run then Wentz can certainly make them pay.

On the other side, Stitt's practices have been closed to media and the public, so the Bison have been relegated to trying to study tape of Colorado School of the Mines. The Griz have run a pro-style, huddling offense for as long as their fans can remember, so the excitement from the fans is palpable for what's coming later today. While QB Brady Gustafson is a first-time starter for Montana, he returns two big-play threats at receiver (Jones and Henderson) that get to attack a pair of sophomore Bison safeties that have never started. ND State returns only three starters, unless senior corner CJ Smith is cleared from a knee injury he sustained in the spring that has kept him out of most of camp. The Bison lost each of their top five tacklers.

Lastly, the onus will be on ND State to try and take the crowd out of the game. Coach Chris Klieman is a defensive coach; he took over after Craig Bohl went to Wyoming following the 2013 championship and immediately won a title of his own, largely based on yet another top-5 I-AA defense.

Klieman told his players that it's going to be louder than Iowa State or K-State, two places where the Bison have won in recent years. The fans are on top of the field, so the longer the Griz are competitive, the longer the locals can stay involved. And even if the Griz fall behind the number, the offense should give them enough of a chance to slide in the backdoor. Where the line is really flawed is the total. Anyone who knows anything about Stitt knows that he should never have a game with a total in the 40s.

Prediction: North Dakota State 37, Montana 30
The plays: Montana +14.5 medium
OVER 48.5 big

GL fellas!

:shake:
 
Great stuff....I have been to a Montana home game and it is an awesome atmosphere...the best part... me an my girlfriend made it from our seats, out of the stadium and across the street to liquor store and back to seats during halftime and was back for 2nd half kickoff.....Montana just a place of its own
 
I'll be riding both the total and spread, but probably more on the spread. Going to post an article in a second but one thing that concerns me with betting on the over is the air quality from the northwestern fires. Being the first game of the season and the quality of air may make for some gassed players in the 2H.
 
http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/a...ions-ndsu-prepare-hostile-environment-montana

FCS champions NDSU prepare for hostile environment at Montana

In their short life as a Division I football program, the North Dakota State Bison have notched signature wins on the road at Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, Colorado State and Minnesota. Bison coach Chris Klieman says none of those places is as intimidating as the University of Montana's home field.

Even when the air is clear.

The four-time defending Football Championship Subdivision winners open the season Saturday at Washington-Grizzly Stadium in front of what Klieman calls "27,000 sitting on that mountain" in Missoula, where the first Division I game of the season is expected to go on even though the air quality on Friday was rated "very unhealthy" because of forest fires in the region.

The Grizzlies rarely lose at home, where they have won 89 percent of their games and were 7-0 last season.

"We're going to be under a lot of fire," Klieman said, referring to the game and not the smoke. "We're going to learn an awful lot about our guys, especially our young guys."

Joe Glenn, the South Dakota coach who led Montana to a national title in 2001, said Missoula is one of college football's loudest environments, and being "locked in a canyon" can be difficult for visiting teams.

"You're right in Hellgate Canyon," Glenn said. "There's a great big mountain on one side, big buildings around you. And then there's no track and the stadium is really pitched high. They're right there on top of you and there's nowhere for the voices to go but off the walls and off the canyon walls and off Mount Sentinel. And they're into it. They've got it figured out how to make it noisy when you come to the line of scrimmage. They're just well-educated fans. It's a great home-field advantage."

The Bison will counter with one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Carson Wentz, who in his first game as a starter last year found his team down 14-0 to Iowa State. He proceeded to help the Bison score 34 straight points to win going away.

"I think Carson reacted pretty well last year, even down 14-0, but who's going to be that next guy?" Klieman asked. "Who's going to be the guy that we say, wow, that guy really answered the bell."

Wentz threw for 3,111 yards and 25 touchdowns last season and was the team's second-leading rusher with 642 yards and six TDs. ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. lists him as the third-rated senior quarterback in all of college football.

The Bison have piped artificial noise into their practice sessions in an attempt to prepare Wentz and an experienced offense for the crowd, which will also be amped up because the game is on ESPN.

"We have a lot of weapons," Wentz said. "It's a good test for us to go out there and compete with those guys, to measure up and see where we're at."

The Bison have several newcomers in the starting lineup on defense, but first-year Montana coach Bob Stitt isn't expecting much of a drop off.

"You don't win four national championships in a row not being able to reload at some time," Stitt said. "We're going to find out real quick how good we are."

The Bison, who have 58 victories in the last four years, rode a school-record five field goals by Adam Keller to a 22-10 win over Montana last season in Fargo.

"There's one thing in this profession, I think, and especially at NDSU, I try to make sure our coaches and our players don't take any wins for granted," Klieman said. "Wins are hard to get in college football."
 
Other tidbits about the NDST/Montana game.
  • Montana's 4-3 defense has considerable experience with eight starters who are fourth- or fifth-year seniors
  • Montana has a first time starting, red-shirt junior, QB who's 6-7 and 235lbs

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Herd's migration to Missoula has begun. Here's a breakdown of tomorrow's <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FCSKickoff?src=hash">#FCSKickoff</a> on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNCFB">@ESPNCFB</a>. <a href="http://t.co/RMcaNN5Qq1">pic.twitter.com/RMcaNN5Qq1</a></p>&mdash; NDSU Football (@NDSUfootball) <a href="https://twitter.com/NDSUfootball/status/637357755267973120">August 28, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<script async="" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Great post Rex, and great follow up by fondy and others. Season is here.

Let's do this.

Also on the over.. for similar reasons but maybe less reasons than you had. Good luck.
 
tried to do as much of it offscreen as possible, and used a couple of accounts in offices that have been dormant awhile. Not sure if anyone caught on or not but you can be sure they talk to each other. A couple of guys asked me my involvement on the skypie and i blew them off for as long as i could before i casually told them dog and over. I don't think it's done yet.
 
Rex, why are Pinny and betcris being little wusses as far as getting us a cfb totals market?
 
pinny is a wuss regardless in the college football market. Anyone who pays attention to that number, betting or booking, will be broke by mid-October. The limits are so low and they literally treat cfb as a sport they can't beat and/or choose not to invest in to try to beat.

i think a lot of people are of the ilk at this point that they're treating the college football totals closer to how they would treat the ckb totals. It's not like the limits will be microscopic on gameday or anything, but the people who do the numbers out there (your usual suspects, korner/glantz, 2 or 3 others out there who they semi-plagiarize off of and vice versa) and the ones who do it down here don't often times come to a consensus. Who knows how they each get to their numbers but when one guy makes a game 51, another 53 and the other group of guys 58 then there's an obvious issue that they won't feel comfortable with until a few games are in the bank.

Credit handicappers, amateur and otherwise, for coming up with sharper numbers to hit at open as well. Those have a lot of the shoe cobblers (as Doctor Timbo would call them) running for the hills and scurrying, wondering why it takes so long to get to the right number.

But that's just one observation. I could listen to Alan Tongue and few others offer their thoughts (in this thread is fine) as well.

:shake:
 
Rex, any thoughts on the high school action today? Full slate of games..
 
Good call on the total, hopefully we can get a few more Montana scores to get the spread and win it for those with the higher total line.
 
2H ND State OVER 31.5 medium.

Total should be about 36 or so; they know their best chances to win come by scoring. Get the ball first, can outscore them, and this coach is a genius and should be able to make some adjustments. The Griz had a lot of wasted drives. I'm not sure they can stop ND State's QB so I'm not dipping in for any more +7.5 but the dog is still the side.
 
long way to go on the side, press. i'm not even confident to dip back in for some more +7.5 even though we get the ball first. Too many wasted possessions and potential for turnovers with the risky plays.
 
yeah, im watching the Texas high school game and popped over to see the score with little time left, which I now understand was the end of the half.
Good luck this season , sir.
 
pinny is a wuss regardless in the college football market. Anyone who pays attention to that number, betting or booking, will be broke by mid-October. The limits are so low and they literally treat cfb as a sport they can't beat and/or choose not to invest in to try to beat.

i think a lot of people are of the ilk at this point that they're treating the college football totals closer to how they would treat the ckb totals. It's not like the limits will be microscopic on gameday or anything, but the people who do the numbers out there (your usual suspects, korner/glantz, 2 or 3 others out there who they semi-plagiarize off of and vice versa) and the ones who do it down here don't often times come to a consensus. Who knows how they each get to their numbers but when one guy makes a game 51, another 53 and the other group of guys 58 then there's an obvious issue that they won't feel comfortable with until a few games are in the bank.

Credit handicappers, amateur and otherwise, for coming up with sharper numbers to hit at open as well. Those have a lot of the shoe cobblers (as Doctor Timbo would call them) running for the hills and scurrying, wondering why it takes so long to get to the right number.

But that's just one observation. I could listen to Alan Tongue and few others offer their thoughts (in this thread is fine) as well.

:shake:


The industry as a whole is moving from small limits during the week to large limits on game day. I see it even with soccer at SBO and 188. Pinnacle have rugby league limits at 40k on gameday, 6 figures for esports. They have always been relatively pathetic before game day on CFB, something like mid 4 figures 24 hours out on the line. Let's see how they go on game day. Since the New Zealander crew ended their involvement with Cris I've lost a pipeline into there.

it may suck, but that's the way things are going. It will only get worse, with consolidation amongst the large global players (Paddy Power and Betfair, Ladbrokes and Corals), and automatic odds feeds it's going to be harder to find a point of difference out there. Pinnacle just need to be one step more aggressive then their competition, and if their competition keeps getting more pissweak, pinnacle will continue to get more conservative
 
Alan - Great analysis, spot on and I agree with you, sadly as it is.

I knew some of the guys that helped out at CRIS that worked with Zeljko a couple of years ago and was hoping that some of the philosophies would hold. Mickey was with them, whereas Ron was more in Jack's corner. They constantly fussed about it.

As for I-AA games, those two teams would beat no less than half (that was my power rating on both going in, now i would say both would be top-40 and not top-55 teams) in I-A, so you got decent quality. Going in, I expected a Utah State/U-La-La type game in terms of power ratings. What we might have gotten was K-State/Marshall - though who knows who was who, and with the smoke/early start/small sample size it's obviously way too hasty for me to suggest those numbers to be right. I won't know where my I-AA numbers stack up until after the first couple of weeks of results against the I-A teams, and then it won't matter again until the playoffs.
 
thanks Rexy ... Always appreciate your insight and TIME ... Had no clue i would start the season 4-0 today, didn't even know there was a game ... :shake:
 
I-AA lines are popping. I wanted some Nova at -3 or less against UConn but sadly, that won't happen.

Also sadly enough, I don't have any plays in any of the extra games. I made Georgia Tech much cheaper and lean Alcorn at +40 but no play. I made Reno higher and at -22.5 it's on the cusp of a play but I'll let it go. If I see 21 or less, i'll be on Reno. Everything else is within two points of what CRIS opened.

I do have some, however, on the regular board. Will work on the writeup and get it posted shortly.
 
Sharp money on Florida International, and with them returning eight starters from a top-notch C-USA defense, I can understand the move to an extent. But Central Florida lost Bortles and the standouts from the 12-1 Fiesta Bowl winners of 2013, yet still found a way to go 9-4 under wily coach George O'Leary. At the opening number of 17 (I made the game 18), it would have been an easy pass but at this price, it's a lay. Just three seasons ago, the same two teams met in the 2012 Brighthouse season opener and UCF won 33-20 laying 17. I would take that result tonight, as well, though I think the Panthers will struggle to get two touchdowns on the board.


Prediction: Central Florida 30, FIU 10
The play: UCF -12 medium


I had a lean to Central Michigan at +24 and would have probably bet it had my secondary work been done before last night. Alas, there is sharp money there and they ruined it for me so it's an pass. I made Okie Light only 18.5 but with CMU breaking in a new head coach and seemingly clearly worse than four other MAC West teams, it didn't take much to sit this one out.


Liked Utah just a little bit as I am anti-Michigan compared to most but was hoping to lay 3; instead it went my way and now is painted 5.5 and 6. Pass.


Not a popular play to be on Minnesota but there is good reasoning for it. The Horned Frogs were playing their first I-A foe when Minnesota went to Fort Worth, so the Gophers didn't really know what they were getting into with the new TCU spread offense, which ended up scoring 21 more points per game (!) than in 2013. Sure, the Toads led 30-0 at one point and won 30-7, but Minnesota held them to a season low for points, forcing three field goals despite TCU never having a scoring drive start from inside their own 45. Big plays are the key, and Minny will need to limit those, and Leidner can't throw three interceptions again. Kill is 9-1 as a dog ATS since the middle of 2013 and the coaching continuity he's had in place should pay more dividends as UM tries to compete for a Big 10 West crown.


Prediction: TCU 30, Minnesota 20
The play: Minnesota +17 medium. *** Would take the 16.5 that is most widely available now for about 1/8th less than what I have at 17. *


Duke lost a lot to graduation, and you have to give Tulane coach Johnson some credit (just go back to 2013, when the Green Wave won seven games despite being an underdog nine times in the regular season). But there's no one I'd rather have that can coach up a team above their talent more than wily Dave Cutcliffe. The Blue Devils trounced Tulane last fall thanks to taking advantage of a series of TU miscues, though of which the likes you rarely see a Cutcliffe-coached team make. Don't be surprised if they get a couple of pick-6s again tonight just like last year. This would be a game where Tulane would be more competitive later in the season once they iron out the kinks. Duke had the extra bowl practices last fall and should continue to play like a well-oiled machine despite losing some key parts to graduation and the Niffel.


Prediction: Duke 34, Tulane 13
The play: Duke -7 medium to big




The hacks in Vegas got many games wrong when sending out openers to BetOnline and others (BOL, for their fault in the matter, didn't bother doing of their own handicapping work and just chucked up the numbers as they were and slapped nickel circles on them). All you have to do is go to the fine Dwight Schrute's thread to find all of the mistakes, each of which he blasted into oblivion as you are supposed to. One was taking Western Kentucky at around +17. What a fiasco. I made the Hilltoppers 4.5 when doing my final prep work about 2 weeks ago. Of course, by then it was too late to get the price, as it got hammered to 10 within 3 hours on July 1st, then to a field goal or so by July 4th.


The stats are tough to look at because of the obvious difference in schedule strength, but I like Western's progress through last season, and its offense proved to be virtually unstoppable by the end of the season. The Toppers got the benefit of bowl practices and playing in Nashville won't be a tough trip as it's less than an hour from Bowling Green. There should be plenty of red, and I think the Vandy coach is in over his head. Western's defense is an abomination but this VU offense has already lost its best receiver and a top lineman to injury, and there's not much talent there to begin with at this point. It might take a barrage of bullets from sixth-year QB Daughty and/or RB Allen but over 60 minutes, I can't see the Commodores outscoring WKU.


Prediction: Western 37, Vandy 27
The play: WKU PICK medium **** the current best available is -2.5. I would also lay that for the same medium play. *


GL tonight!


:shake:
 
i like your Duke play

I see Tulane getting a ton of love, but I think you summed it up perfectly. Expect the kicking game to be atrocious once again, as CJ has FIVE of 'em on the team and they ALL suck
 
Thanks for the thoughts rexy. I'm on the same side as you in all but the duke game. My uncle a former duke player had a lot of negative to say so I grabbed Tulane at +9. Best of luck brother
 
thanks fellas, very hectic day (UEFA Euro qualifiers, day baseball, day tennis at the US Open, 16 Niffel games equipped with people who are clueless on how to line the games and halves, w-nuba, golf matchups going nuts for tomorrow's tourney, and even a Ciffel half later)... i'll try to be around to post some halftime plays and answer any questions...

:shake:
 
2H Central Florida for a small bet, just to get my toes wet. They were tentative for the first three drives or so and gave up some meaningless yards late in the half to lose the box score. [The UCF offensive line struggled a bit but they'll assert themselves at halftime. They're deeper and bigger, get ball first, will wear other team down

In the other game i like OVER but with all of the problems of players staying hydrated and a couple of key offensive guys hurt, i'll passed it even at 30 so not going now that it steamed up.

The play is UCF -3.5 small.
 
Toledo really missing RB Kareem Hunt against Stony Brook to this point. Interesting to see what the halftime price comes there.
 
Central Michigan looks 100 times more organized than they ever did under Dan Enos. I fucked the dog not betting them. Line gonna come around 10 or so and I would love the dog but rue missing the number pregame and sure don't want to miss the wedding and show up for the funeral.

Central Florida getting beaten at the line of scrimmage. FIU i have badly underrated; they deserve to win.
 
Yeah agree on your comment about UCF on LOS, not good from what I have seen.
 
Interesting first half in Muncie; VMI's only TD came when a DB got beat yet they still ran 38 plays. Ball State ran 52, including 35 passes!

Shocking halftime line in Mount Pleasant by CRIS - a welcome change as it seems they're reverting to the same style they used in 2013, which was very fun to see because of its variance for those of us on both sides of the counter.
 
Not really believing what I'm watching in Nashville. I'd have given you 20-to-1 that Western wouldn't have gotten shut out in the first half - they look jittery and the drops are alarming. But 46 yards of total offense is brutal. Thankfully, the defense has kept Western in it but Vandy offensive mistakes have helped. Can't do anything with it at this point; the Toppers didn't even have the ball for 10 minutes there. At least they get it to start the second half.
 
Gun to my head there I guess I'd have Hawaii because of the situation (11 pm Boulder kick being the primary situational edge) but I made Culorado 8. No play for me.
 
high altitude, thin air, Mich overmatched,Utah sick of hearing the hype, the second have gonna get way worse for Mishitgan before it gets better

The play: 2H Utah PICK -125 medium
 
Don't see Michigan being overmatched when it's only 10-3 with Michigan missing on a couple of wide open passes and giving Utah 2 turnovers. Utah has done nothing wrong except miss a fg. I think if Michigan executes on some mismatches being exposed on the outside, this could get interesting. And I don't think Utah has any thoughts of overhype in the midst of a game.
 
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