The worst thing about sitting through that mess in Atlanta yesterday with a big loser on it was that it was in the middle of the day and I had to watch it sober. I wanted to take a long walk off a short cliff about midway through the first quarter when the refs and replay booth somehow figured out how to conspire against me twice on the biggest plays of the day in a game where my team hadn't bothered to show up.
Several games are on the fringes of being bets, and I've got a few games where I am on both sides as I was able to get to a number (West Virginia/Georgia Southern, Alabama/Wiskydicks, Kent State/Illinois and Fla Atl/Tulsa all fit the profile of games where I'll cringe on one side of the counter if the number falls and cash bets on both sides at the same time). There are only two true plays today in the I-A games, however. I'll save the best for last, Natalie Cole style.
Florida State lost most of the nuts and bolts of its point shaving guys to graduation, the Niffel or anywhere else but the football field at the Doak. Hence, a lay is in order today. I respect Franchione and his system down in San Marcos (31,000 kids go to school at TSU?) but this is a class gap that the Bobcats should be unable to bridge. The Seminoles had their 29 game winning streak snapped in the playoffs in January but should more than be ready to get back in 2015. As Phil Steele would say, VHT's litter the 2-deep and 3-deep and in the second half when this game gets out of hand, those kids will be hungry to prove they belong out there during meaningful minutes.
Prediction: Florida State 51, Texas State 10
The play: FSU -28 medium
I have been sitting on this game since May - and when I saw the first lines come out, I was licking my chops. Unlike the UNCC-Georgia State game where there was a lot of uncertainty and I was on the wrong side of it, there is zero uncertainty here. Yesterday, I thought i knew something and i badly overestimated one team and badly underestimated another. Today, I am going to correctly tell you who is being underestimated and who is being overestimated.
Louisville is going to beat Auburn outright, and they'll do it for fun.
The Cards enter the second season under Bobby Petrino. Everyone has seen this man's work at the college level. Under his complex systems and schemes, it often takes a year and some change for players to get used to what he's trying to sell.
In his second season during his first stint at U of L (2004), the Cards finished 11-1 and No. 6 in the final AP poll. His second Arkansas team in 2009 improved its win total by three games (don't forget how they got cheated at Tebow's top-ranked Florida as a 23 point dog, losing 23-20). U of L won nine games last fall; it's safe to say that in the second year of the Petrino system and with the same coordinators, that U of L can improve on that number. I have Florida State finishing ahead of them in the ACC, but no one else, and don't be surprised if the Cards end up in the playoff discussion. This will be the first step in getting there.
Petrino helped develop Western Kentucky quarterback Brandon Daughty into the monster that he is today (leading returning QB in yards and TD passes last season) and now has four QB's at his disposal, any of which could play today and each with different skill sets. This forced Auburn to have to game plan for each of them. On the other side, defensive coordinator Todd Grantham was at Georgia from 2010-2013 and had to prepare for Auburn four times. He knows the Gus Malzahn offense (Rhett Ashlee, the co-OC at Auburn, was also an assistant on the 2010 staff).
Everyone that is underrating the Cards note that they only return four starters on defense (nine overall), but forget about the two Georgia transfers and former Big 12 defensive player of the year that come in on that side of the ball to fortify a unit that held nine foes to 23 points or less in 2014.
Auburn lost four of their last five in 2014, including one as a 23-point home favorite to Texas A&M and the Tigers allowed 31 or more points in all but one of their final eight games. Will Muschamp's return as the DC has been much heralded but I'm not a believer in his schemes at this early stage. The STAR is out and the more traditional 4-3 returns; he'll have to find new personnel as well. Auburn lost 33 lettermen, the most of anyone in the country. On the other side of the ball, I'm not sold on the quarterback, either. He's got a few mistakes in him for the ball-hawking U of L secondary, which led the nation in interceptions a year ago and adds the two Georgia transfers to make up for the losses to the NFL.
Auburn running backs coach Tim Horton said "The one thing he always did when I coached with him for four years at Arkansas was he put a lot of emphasis and a lot of preparation time into that first game. Now we’re the first game, so we know we’re going to get their very best shot."
You can bank that. Finally, the fun and trendy stuff. Petrino is 10-0 straight up in season openers. Louisville is 9-0 as a regular season away dog since 2011.
Prediction: U of L 31, Auburn 23
The play: U of L +10.5 (i got better but this is fine) and moneyline +360 or better. Big on the spread, and medium on the ML.
In the other shit today...
UEFA Euro 16 qualifiers
Ukraine -1 -110 - 1.5u
Slovakia +1.75 even - 1u
Lithuania +0.25 -104 - 1.5u
Montenegro -1.75 -105 - 2u
US Open
8220 Young +109 - 1.5u
8223 Bellucci +1100 - 1u
8227 Tomic +340 - 1.5u
8719 Petkovic -145 - 1.5u
8721 Errani +265 - 1.5u
8728 Kerber +192 - 1u
8729 Strycova +210 - 1u
My I-AA lines...
Kansas PICK
Rutgers 35
Iowa 6
Maryland 14.5
Navals 31
Owe Miss 45
Clempson 35
Pitt 15
BC 21
Wazzou 28
S Bama 17.5
Buff 16.5
AFA 30.5
Wyo 11
Colo St 50
Miami O 4
Appy St 36
Rice 22
Mizzou 36.5
IU 16
Cal 43.5
Miami Flo 44
ECU 24
La Tech 40
Tex Tech 9
S Fla 25
Memp 20
MTenny 28
Cincy 46
K-State 29
LSU 32.5
Oreg 29.5
Iowa St 2
Houston 32
UNM 37
SD State 35
Lastly, the UFC. I will be watching the weigh ins after the football stats (with an eye on Northwestern and Jorja games for halftime purposes) and will send that card later on as well.
Feel free to ask any questions. This will be a zoo because it's the first one, but there really aren't "that" many games today, so I'll try to be around as much as I can and will surely post all halftime plays, for better or worse.
:shake:
