Rexy's Week 0 and Week 1 plays...
- Thread starter CollegeKingRex
- Start date
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
RAS I have on OVER in that game; it seems billy on UNDER. Unless the pulled the ol fuckeroo.
It's only week 1, i'll figure them out soon enough. Greed brings all the rats out of their hiding spots...
2H Wiskydicks +5 even money.
Was just looking for best juice; i realize there are better lines but the right price is 4 flat tops, with Dicks getting the ball first and basically lining up and playing them about even. Saban is a great coach but the other team seems well enough prepared to stand and battle for 30 more minutes. If it's longer than that, all the dog backers get the keesh.
GL...
:cheers:
It's only week 1, i'll figure them out soon enough. Greed brings all the rats out of their hiding spots...
2H Wiskydicks +5 even money.
Was just looking for best juice; i realize there are better lines but the right price is 4 flat tops, with Dicks getting the ball first and basically lining up and playing them about even. Saban is a great coach but the other team seems well enough prepared to stand and battle for 30 more minutes. If it's longer than that, all the dog backers get the keesh.
GL...
:cheers:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Take that back, I don't have RAS on OVER. Misread my chart. Whoops. Maybe I'll get multiple OT's, which would be bad for my side...
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
God, Felder sucks, embarrassing and day-ruining loss there. I can't argue with the decision; thought Pearson won 2 of the 3 rounds.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
2H Florida State -13 flat medium.
Maybe some of the first half shavers from last year are still there. Noles won toss, defer, should still possibly cover game line and I do like them at this level 2h.
GL...
Maybe some of the first half shavers from last year are still there. Noles won toss, defer, should still possibly cover game line and I do like them at this level 2h.
GL...
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
i know line got away as i was doing 20 things and have 37 tabs open on my chrome. When I hit submit, it didn't submit.
Anyway, at 13.5 flat (which is available), it's still a play for the same.
Anyway, at 13.5 flat (which is available), it's still a play for the same.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
late game i made USC 26.
Right Angle OVER, Walters UNDER. Me no real clue and I don't see anything i would follow on the sides. Seems if there was anything close to sharp it is on the dog. Gun to my head play would be dog. No clue on total, GL...
Right Angle OVER, Walters UNDER. Me no real clue and I don't see anything i would follow on the sides. Seems if there was anything close to sharp it is on the dog. Gun to my head play would be dog. No clue on total, GL...
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
This wasn't the full card that next week presents. Nevertheless, there was one game that stood out like a sore thumb when I did all of my work, and it was the lone football game on the Sunday card. I made Marshall a TWENTY point favorite against Purdue.
Needless to say, I was certain that I would never get a sniff of the game at a logical price. When the Vegas send-out in July came and they made Purdue the favorite, I had no clue. I went out of my way not to look at any of that shit until I did my own work. Obviously, when CRIS got around to opening the game, the mistake had been rectified, and they opened up the Thundering Turd -9.5. The logical progression from there was that the game would continue to move, a la Western Kentucky/Vandy, to 14 or more, and I would be left with my pecker in my hand.
So as thrilled as I am to be able to lay 7 on We Are Marshall, I had to dig in a little deeper to confirm that a big play is in order, and that I didn't make a big error when evaluating these teams. So first, let's make a case for Purdue having a chance to cover before explaining why this will be a sound beating.
The Boilers return 15 starters for a third-year coach and should be more comfortable in his systems. They were far more competitive in league play last fall and could make another step forward. And Marshall lost a lot (namely, quarterback Rakeem Cato and wideout Tommy Shuler) from its 13-1 unit last year that played perhaps the weakest schedule in I-A history. A Big 10 team has never visited Joan Edwards Stadium, so the hype could result in an overaggressive and/or sloppy game by Marshall, which has the nation's spotlight to itself today on Fox Sports 1. Marshall has some inexperience on the defensive front front and the Boilers will likely try to gash them with a pair of running backs (DJ Knox and Markell Jones, neither of which has a carry in college) plowing behind an offensive line that returns six players who started a game last fall.
Two beat writers for respective newspaper (West Lafayette J&C, Charleston Gazette-Mail) areas both picked Purdue outright, as well. Then again, I used to be a sportswriter; what the hell do those guys know, anyway?
Here's why very little of what I pondered above will come to fruition: the only offensive or defensive unit that Steele ranks in his Big 10 top 10 (of 14 teams) is the offensive line, and that's Steele just being generous because the Boilers return all five starters up front. Just because they all return doesn't mean they're any good.
This is the fifth straight season that Purdue is breaking in a new starting quarterback in the season opener. I'm not much impressed with the weapons around him, either.
Meanwhile, the Marshall offense finished in the top 12 in the country each of the last three seasons, but it's not like Cato is irreplaceable. He's not even playing in the NFL. Taking Cato's place is junior Michael Birdsong, a transfer who started at James Madison in 2013 before transferring to We Are Marshall last fall and sitting a year after the Dukes switched to an Ohio State-type offense. The OC says Birdsong has qualities of a Byron Leftwich. If Birdsong can perform to that level, the Herd have nothing to worry about. He's got a grasp on the offense and commands the huddle, says the OC. Birdsong is a pocket passer and if given time, will shred the overmatched Boiler defense.
One of the nation's better running backs in Devon Johnson (1767 yards, 17 touchdown in 2014) returns as well, and should get heavy dosage today against a Boiler defense that seems ill-equipped to slow the Herd running game. Johnson averaged 8.6 yards per carry last fall thanks in large part to SEVEN runs of at least 50 yards; he should be good for one or two today, as well. We Are Marshall has a strong O-line with three potential NFL players, two of which could be drafted in 2016. Birdsong can get tough yards between the tackles if need be, as well. The Herd seem to have the mindset that PU will try to stop the run first and that could lead to some 1-on-1 battles on the outside; wideouts Davonte Allen and Deon-Tay McManus will need to win those against a pair of Purdue senior corners that have steadily improved in their respective careers. Expect the Boilers to blitz the new QB, who hasn't taken a game snap in 21 months, and stack the box to try to sell out against the run. I think they should be able to handle it.
The Boilermakers don't have a non-conference road win since 2007 (Toledo); that doesn't mean they can't cover a touchdown but I sure wouldn't try to make them get any sort of result away from West Lafayette.
Prediction: Marshall 41, Purdue 20
The play: We Are Marshall -7 for a big bet
Needless to say, I was certain that I would never get a sniff of the game at a logical price. When the Vegas send-out in July came and they made Purdue the favorite, I had no clue. I went out of my way not to look at any of that shit until I did my own work. Obviously, when CRIS got around to opening the game, the mistake had been rectified, and they opened up the Thundering Turd -9.5. The logical progression from there was that the game would continue to move, a la Western Kentucky/Vandy, to 14 or more, and I would be left with my pecker in my hand.
So as thrilled as I am to be able to lay 7 on We Are Marshall, I had to dig in a little deeper to confirm that a big play is in order, and that I didn't make a big error when evaluating these teams. So first, let's make a case for Purdue having a chance to cover before explaining why this will be a sound beating.
The Boilers return 15 starters for a third-year coach and should be more comfortable in his systems. They were far more competitive in league play last fall and could make another step forward. And Marshall lost a lot (namely, quarterback Rakeem Cato and wideout Tommy Shuler) from its 13-1 unit last year that played perhaps the weakest schedule in I-A history. A Big 10 team has never visited Joan Edwards Stadium, so the hype could result in an overaggressive and/or sloppy game by Marshall, which has the nation's spotlight to itself today on Fox Sports 1. Marshall has some inexperience on the defensive front front and the Boilers will likely try to gash them with a pair of running backs (DJ Knox and Markell Jones, neither of which has a carry in college) plowing behind an offensive line that returns six players who started a game last fall.
Two beat writers for respective newspaper (West Lafayette J&C, Charleston Gazette-Mail) areas both picked Purdue outright, as well. Then again, I used to be a sportswriter; what the hell do those guys know, anyway?
Here's why very little of what I pondered above will come to fruition: the only offensive or defensive unit that Steele ranks in his Big 10 top 10 (of 14 teams) is the offensive line, and that's Steele just being generous because the Boilers return all five starters up front. Just because they all return doesn't mean they're any good.
This is the fifth straight season that Purdue is breaking in a new starting quarterback in the season opener. I'm not much impressed with the weapons around him, either.
Meanwhile, the Marshall offense finished in the top 12 in the country each of the last three seasons, but it's not like Cato is irreplaceable. He's not even playing in the NFL. Taking Cato's place is junior Michael Birdsong, a transfer who started at James Madison in 2013 before transferring to We Are Marshall last fall and sitting a year after the Dukes switched to an Ohio State-type offense. The OC says Birdsong has qualities of a Byron Leftwich. If Birdsong can perform to that level, the Herd have nothing to worry about. He's got a grasp on the offense and commands the huddle, says the OC. Birdsong is a pocket passer and if given time, will shred the overmatched Boiler defense.
One of the nation's better running backs in Devon Johnson (1767 yards, 17 touchdown in 2014) returns as well, and should get heavy dosage today against a Boiler defense that seems ill-equipped to slow the Herd running game. Johnson averaged 8.6 yards per carry last fall thanks in large part to SEVEN runs of at least 50 yards; he should be good for one or two today, as well. We Are Marshall has a strong O-line with three potential NFL players, two of which could be drafted in 2016. Birdsong can get tough yards between the tackles if need be, as well. The Herd seem to have the mindset that PU will try to stop the run first and that could lead to some 1-on-1 battles on the outside; wideouts Davonte Allen and Deon-Tay McManus will need to win those against a pair of Purdue senior corners that have steadily improved in their respective careers. Expect the Boilers to blitz the new QB, who hasn't taken a game snap in 21 months, and stack the box to try to sell out against the run. I think they should be able to handle it.
The Boilermakers don't have a non-conference road win since 2007 (Toledo); that doesn't mean they can't cover a touchdown but I sure wouldn't try to make them get any sort of result away from West Lafayette.
Prediction: Marshall 41, Purdue 20
The play: We Are Marshall -7 for a big bet
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
I only saw highlights and read the story and saw the box.
One friend said I was incredibly lucky.
I will take him at his word; he's sharper than anyone posting on a forum.
I will make fairly big adjustments to both teams going forward, Marshall down and Purdue up. If I made the game that far off and got lucky to win, then big adjustments need to be made if I hope to have success on or against either team going forward.
Congrats to all who had it with me and let's count our blessings. Not too many times are we on the wrong side of one that wins; it's normally the other way around...
Figured out how to grind out a profit after some real bad calls (Jorja St, a couple of second halves) and will take it going into next week. Cheers, sirs!
:shake:
One friend said I was incredibly lucky.
I will take him at his word; he's sharper than anyone posting on a forum.
I will make fairly big adjustments to both teams going forward, Marshall down and Purdue up. If I made the game that far off and got lucky to win, then big adjustments need to be made if I hope to have success on or against either team going forward.
Congrats to all who had it with me and let's count our blessings. Not too many times are we on the wrong side of one that wins; it's normally the other way around...
Figured out how to grind out a profit after some real bad calls (Jorja St, a couple of second halves) and will take it going into next week. Cheers, sirs!
:shake:
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
Yea it was a pretty ugly game. Purdue had a lot of chunk yardage off of a few long passes and a couple long runs. Marshall O struggled a bit durIng the middle of the game. Then of course the jenk6 at the end to cover but hey I'll take it. I'm sure I'll be on the receiving end of a jenk6 back door loss this season as well. Best of luck this week. Thanks for the thoughts
chelseafan
Pretty much a regular
I played the over so I needed the two pick 6's to cash but for those that played a side, to win or lose this game in this manner, the second INT for a TD with a minute and change left and the only way possible to cover if you played The Herd, it causes extreme jubilation or extreme anguish.
