regarding the Spurs game

[tuck321]

Sad moment. The loss of Shaq has pushed the Spreads into a semblance of reality. Today we can no longer fade the Heat. this will be fourth in 6 for Spurs. they have a day off after this and face the nightmare of Hornets at the door facing a very tired old spurs team. They have a day off after that and then have to play at Utah. They then have to face their whipping boy Seattle on the road b-b. They have a day off and then they are at the suns. The correct term for this for the Spurs is Nightmare.
Nut expected them to start fast today and fade in the end. They will not start fast. They have very clear expectations here. They are hoping to escape with a win. They will push the pawn, play a very sleepy game and hope to take over in the fourth. In the first half I expect them to be lambs and I will be playing the Heat in the first half at the best number I can get.
If I did not have that option I would play Heat for the game.
You have to look at the games from the point of view of the stronger team. Figure out what they want. The spurs want to rest their tired top players like Duncan and get out of Miami with a win and to say that they could not care less about the margin of victory is very accurate. If you play the spurs today you are betting on a team that thinks your expectations are a joke. With the Spurs you lay numbers when they are rested and have nothing coming up and a gripe against the team they face. then you watch them win by 18. This is exactly opposite from a spot where you would play them. In fairness I should say the Spurs seem to have the (2-1) the best of the referees today.
Let me just say one thing more here. In your own mind compare this situation with the recent Cleveland at Miami. gl

 

[tuck321]

Probably should have added that the Spurs on the road on Thursday are 2-5 su last 7 and 1-6 ats last 7. This is about as exciting as watching paint dry to them.

 

[tuck321]

Wait on this. Line moves going on and breaking news at pre-game is saying Wade, Haslem, and Ricky Davis are questionable. Nice of both Miami papers to say nothing about this. Will still be betting against the Spurs just waiting to see the final number and who plays.

 

[Marlo]

Agree 100% on this post, throw in the Thursday TNT Under and Dog action that has been hitting this year, and I think there is a play on Miami.

 

[Retburj13]

up to 10 now

u have given me some pause on this game now

good insight

 

[abcs]

Im sure one on this forum thinks the heat should be favored. Or at least a pick since they should have been 4 pt favorites against portland and 3 pt favorites against the cavs.

 

[Marlo]

Im sure one on this forum thinks the heat should be favored. Or at least a pick since they should have been 4 pt favorites against portland and 3 pt favorites against the cavs.

LOL

 

[broadwayjoe]

100% agree again tuck. on heat 1h myself...gl bud

 

[divol]

abcs you so full of BS...
What does one thing have to do with the other? The fact that I rate Portland as a lottery team doesn't mean that I treat Spurs the same as well. The fact that you dream at night of Roy in bikini doesn't mean that all other NBA cappers should kneel at the sound of Portland's name and that is despite the fact that I like the team.

 

[Retburj13]

tryin to verify but some players (Wade, Davis, Haslem ) my be ? tonite

makes we wonder to just leave this game alone altogether...too many questions

 

[SportsNut]

Reason why I suspect or expect the Spurs start fast and fade is more about the reversal of what has been going on in Miami games. The last 3 Miami games they have led at half if I am not mistaken and worst case covered the 1st H spreads. So if I expect Miami to cover a full game spread then something has to give trend wise. I would suspect that to be either Miami leading coast to coast as Minnesota did last nite OR losing the 1st Half but covering the game.

No matter how you slice it situationally its bad spot for SA. The only injury that really concerns me is Udonis Haslem cause he is guarding Tim Duncan. Blount and Barron can play well in spurts and I expect good efforts from them tonight. Wade is beaten up as we know but the more rest he has the better and he gets a full 2 days here.

Spurs are 20-4 at home and 7-9 away. This year I believe we have seen a drastic drop in the play of SA , Dallas and Pho on the road. Before the win in Char they had dropped 6 of 7 away as I mentioned they are ONLY 4-4 ATS when laying more then3 points and two of those wins took Sonics ( +15 2nd H) and Wolves(+21 in the 4thq) 4th quarter collapses. Playing B2B what is the chances they OWN they the 4th quarter here? They are 5-2 SU and 1-6 ATS on no rest this year but only 1-2 SU when that second game is away. Winning @ Memphis by 3 2nd game of the year and losing SU @ Sac then in OT @ GSW.

There definetly is GOOD reason to take Miami 1st H here. The KEY to playing anything with Miami is the health of Udonis Haslem. Naturally having Ricky Davis and Daquen Cook would be nice as well.

2/11/07 @ Miami
TDuncan 4/10 13pts(4/11FTs) & Wade 10/19 26pts

1/20/06 @ Miami
TDuncan 5/10 14 pts (5/12FTs) & Wade 14/29 36 pts
- Haslem played only 19 minutes that night

2/13 /05 @ Miami
TDuncan 5/14 20pts (10/12Fts) & Wade 12/26 28pts


Last night I dont see SA doing anything impressive. There is an article on Yahoo Sports about LAL run of bad luck. Kobe had 9 turnovers and Odom 5 , they had no one to guard TD and Kwame missed some layups. Still it wasnt till the end of the 3rd quarter where SA got a comfortable lead. The Spurs are sporting an older starting lineup these days and TD played 40 minutes yesterday. Just check him B2B games and you will see a decline in performance especially if you overlook the OT games vs the no defense GSW . The 1st meeting this year was a SA B2B....

As Tuck has said a veteran team just wants to win here. Clearly SA is the better team but just like Randy Moss acknowledged he took plays off teams mentally take games off as well when long seasons are involved.

Also Manu is a scorer and scorers tend to be streaky so off a 3/17 game I wouldnt expect a bounce back effort...

Seeing that Haslem played 43 minutes on Monday and had 2 days rest why wouldnt he play here??

Last 3 games lost by 7 ,4 , 7 to Cle , NYK and Port.......cavs and portland certainly are solid teams so I would expect a 5 pt win here from SA and wouldnt be suprised if Miami ginally breaks through and wins one here.......

BOL all! :cheers:

 

[tuck321]

2 more remarks and then I go on to other games. When most teams play the Heat we bet on them because it pleases them greatly to nail the Heat. Atlanta, Cleveland,Washington. All the Eastern teams want to pull down their skirts and make them cry. The Spurs are indifferent. No satisfaction. Did I mention that the Spurs have been the worst first half team in basketball this year?

 

[doublem9]

hey good job on the write up..making me think heat now 1half dammmmit i been fucked by them so many times..

 

[Joe Public]

Wouldn't it also make sense that this game might be slow?

I don't really know how Miami will play with the injuries they have, but being that they're thin and SA is tired, I think it would make sense to slow it down, no?

SA was down double digits last night and had to expend a lot of energy making that comeback, and without a serious presence in the middle to guard Duncan, I would think it would kill two birds with one stone if the Spurs slowed it down. It would pretty much guarantee a big night for Duncan and it would keep that clock running so SA could rest their legs if only a bit.

Just a thought.

 

[askias]

I agree completely Joe. Eyeing a teaser that brings SA down to 4 and also hitting the under.

 

[SportsNut]

Wouldn't it also make sense that this game might be slow?

I don't really know how Miami will play with the injuries they have, but being that they're thin and SA is tired, I think it would make sense to slow it down, no?

SA was down double digits last night and had to expend a lot of energy making that comeback, and without a serious presence in the middle to guard Duncan, I would think it would kill two birds with one stone if the Spurs slowed it down. It would pretty much guarantee a big night for Duncan and it would keep that clock running so SA could rest their legs if only a bit.

Just a thought.

Again the key is Haslem is guarding TD. Sure no Shaq presence but TD isn exactly looking to play in the paint either ( Blount can play some defense at times and are both 7 footers). Think Shaq and Mo's absence is exaggerated here. I wonder at this stage how many guys actually fear Shaqs presence or defense?

I think the game will be slow as well though. They did expend alot of effort , they are older , they are playing 4th in 6 with NO on deck Saturday and the rodeo trip afterwards. they will focus on Wade and make his life tough....

TD on B2B's:

17 @ Memphis (7/15 FG & 3/6 Fts)
12 vs Miami ( 4/9 FG & 4/4 FTs)
25 vs Houston (11/ 22 Fg & 3/6 Fts)
20 vs Orl ( 8/14 FG & 4/6 FTs)
15 @ Sac ( 6 /11 FG & 3/5 FTs)
12 vs NYK ( 5/16 FGs & 2/3 FTs)
32 @ GSW in OT (9 / 19 FGs & 14 /16FTs)

He has had the knee issues most of the GSW prodcution came at the FT line and he has been terrible last 2 games at the LINE @ Miami...

last SA actually made some improvement from past seasons on B2Bs.

 

[reNew Orleans]

great write up tuck and nice job with the t-wolves yesterday

 

[Joe Public]

What's SA's over/under record look like on B2B games?

I'm not crazy about 184, but there still might be some room in there to sneak under with both teams staying in the 80s.

 

[reNew Orleans]

O/U 5-2 for Spurs on a B2B, last 4 have gone over
O/U 8-4 for Heat on a B2B

 

[tuck321]

I like the under myself. Spurs are 5-2 over in b-b this season is a negative. Not a play I would post but I may bet it. Am making a smaller play on Indiana today. fFrst half and game. Indiana 6-1 ats on the road in b-b this year and Indiana the team with the fewest turnovers in the nba had 19 yesterday Setting up nicely for a bounce back vs a team they have done well against.
Indiana has for years been a disaster in first game of b-b and a treasure chest in the second game. Just hoping this continues. both teams playing 4-6 here. Remember this is a smaller play where I could be on the wrong side.

 

[Joe Public]

O/U 5-2 for Spurs on a B2B, last 4 have gone over
O/U 8-4 for Heat on a B2B

Yuck. (Thanks for those, by the way.)

Of course, if the numbers were all in our favor then everybody would be on it and this number would be 179.

Actually the only reason I wouldn't take a shot on the under here is I have zero idea how Miami plays without Shaq and these others in there. If they speed up the tempo to compensate for not having a big man in the middle, even if they don't shoot well the pace alone could get you the total.

 

[SportsNut]

What's SA's over/under record look like on B2B games?

I'm not crazy about 184, but there still might be some room in there to sneak under with both teams staying in the 80s.

Just noticed on 1 day rest SA is 15-7-1 ATS and they are 4-13 ATS otherwise. Here no rest and 1-6 ATS....

Not going to like it JP : 5-2 OVER , avg score 104 -101.

SPURS on B2B's:

@ Memphis 104-101 ( 201 total)
vs Miami 88-78 ( 181)
vs Houston 90-84 (178)
vs Orl 121-110 (187.5)
@ Sac 99 -112 (194.5)
vs NYK 97-93 (185)
@ GSW in OT 130-121 (204.5) (79-74 after 3 q though)

Hard to like the UNDER based solely on that. However how could you expect UNDERS @ SAC , @ MEM , @ GSW??? Those totals were relatively low considering the matchups. The Knicks game snuck over a low total , the 1st meeting went uNDER , The Hous game went under a low total and ORL has been tricky this year as they have become an over team .

So hard to take anything substantial from that. Other then 1st meeting 88-78??

Think 189.5 is the avg for SA away games and L5 avg is 91-86 for them.....

Which is what I am gonna predict SA wins 91 -86

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

Reasons to not bet the Under:

- Miami will run without Shaq.

- Riley will not want to slow it down against possibly the best half-court defense in the NBA. Plus they are coming off a B2B.

- Miami's defense is pitiful.

 

[reNew Orleans]

Lots more shooting definitely, Mark Blount spots up for the mid range jumper instead of Shaq. He put up 27 on the Hornets a few weeks ago, but I'd also assume the Spurs will play better D on Blount. He went 13/16 (5 dunks) and 8/11 on Jumpers.

 

[reNew Orleans]

Miami is 2-4 O/U on 2 days rest, sorry for posting their B2B record

 

[Joe Public]

Yeah, thanks guys, forget the under for me. I'll just lay off all together.

 

[tuck321]

Glad the first half cashed. Bol to Miami in the second half guys. :smiley_acbe:

 

[EHS49]

yes i tailed you on that tuck. i cashed first half with you. and i had under 92.5. total 91. that was close. great writeups. will be looking forward to your plays. i'm staying away from anything in second half for this game.

 

[lifesallover]

:bow: Great insight once again Tuck.

 

[Joe Public]

Huh, that under snuck by. Engh, what are ya gonna do.

Great call, Tuck.