Playoffs day 2 discussion and plays

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
Didn’t know where I should ramble bout all the games so figure I’ll just start up another thread for day 2.

Some quick thoughts bout what happened today and where I see these going.

Snakes basically just skewered brew crew chances imo, I don’t think there any chance milw beats Gallen and Kelly without woodruff. Obviously holding a snakes +130 ticket I was thrilled they stole game 1, I really didn’t even expect that just thought it could happen! Not only did they win Council in a desperation move went to Williams to try and keep it a 1 run lead, 31 pitches and 2 runs later he effectively killed any chance they had imo. Even if Williams can pitch 2marro snakes have confidence against him and I can’t imagine he be at his best! I don’t think it comes to that cause I fully expect Gallen to come in and slam the door on this series! He did struggle some on the road but I think most his really bad road starts were during the day, I totally trust he gonna go out and go 6-7 innings and not allow shit!! He knows the pen had to carry day timight, he will make sure he goes deep! Can’t wait to see where his props are at!
 
What can I say bout Royce Lewis!! Dude ain’t played for 2 weeks, laid off every nasty splitter Gausman threw then just crushed his fastballs! That kid is freaking amazing, him and the twins pen the difference w this version the twins, don’t sleep on them, they can win this series and they can go deep! Im not sure I trust burritos here, his good starts lately been against bad teams, he did go 5 scoreless against minny but that was all way back in May when twins offense was a shell of what they been lately.,,grsy hasn’t pitched in the playoffs in a long time, I think he can handle a not that great jays lineup for 5 innings and twins pen can def slam the door. I kinda think this series in the bag, maybe not 2marro, but even holding a twins future im gonna start a 2 game chase to finish this series.
 
Great win by rangers today and the price seems crazy for game 2. Eovaldi ain’t been the same guy since coming back tho. My one concern for the rangers, it didn’t bite them in the ass today but once again they did that thing where they had bases juiced no outs and only got a run cause a wild pitch, then nothing else after they were walked back loaded. Wtf going on with this offense? They got way to many good hitters to strand the bases loaded no outs so often!! The rangers defense won this game imo, rays d was awful and rangers d stole a few runs! I think rangers are winning this series, I worry bout Eovaldi but at these prices rangers are tempting! I gotta look and see rangers hitters vs Efflin.
 
I have mixed feelings bout Nola, I know my guy @KJ will probably be fading him and I get it, he has a awful career record vs the fish and he hasn’t been particular good this year. Last year in the playoffs he was nails in the WC and the nlds vs Braves but after that he was awful against pads and Stros. The reason I bet Philly to win 2-0 wasn’t much bout him, it cause I think fish made a tactical error starting another lefty in game 2, so Philllys had to deal w Luzardo electric stuff gm1 now they get a much more hittable lefty in this one. Both Garrett starts vs Philly he went 5 innings and gave up 3, I think they hit him even harder in this one, needless to say if you like fish I think you gotta play over! I think Phillies jump all over this kid, Trey Turner has 2 bombs in 6 at bats, many other Phillies have solid numbers vs him. Phillies are just electric in their park in the post season,

I just don’t think Phillies lose. Nola will be good eviugh, 5-6 innings 2-3 runs and think he leaves with a several run lead, i kinda love the idea of 1st 5 or game over in this one. Obviously I’m not betting Philly since I have a big bet on them to win 2-0 but I like over and def some Trey Turner props.
 
Holy fuck, they seriously have Braxton garrett out total at 13.5! He has went deeper than that in 25 of his 31 starts! I know I said Philly gonna hit him, and I suppose it has to be a quick hook if he struggles, I dunno tho, I’m not sure if this a must bet or them screaming Philly is gonna rock his world?
 
I’m not sure wrf to do with that Braxton Garrett number. 13.5 seems crazy low, so much so I’m scared it a tell and I already said I thought Philly could hit him. I’m gonna sleep on this one, if it moves whatever..

Marlins/Phillies ov 8
 
Eovaldi is just a shot in the dark, he hasn’t been the same guy since coming back but he has shown up in some big playoff moments, rays offense jsnt scaring me, outside arzerema who is one the best big game hitters in the game imo, no other rays did shit gm1 and I promise Nontgomery isn’t that damn good! He solid but he ain’t shutting a team who hitting good down, I promise we will see that next round! So I dunno how we trust rays to run him. If he can find his command i would think with the 1-0 lead rangers would prefer to milk as many innings as possible out of him long as he isn’t terrible! He could get blown up but considering the circumstance and the +105 price I think worth a half unit. Oh and Arozarena is only 3 for 18 vs him so the scariest hitter hasn’t hit him. Worth a smal shot!
 
I don’t know. Snake’s really burnt their bullpen out tonight, and if it wasn’t for Longiria’s clutch catch in the 5th, Brewcrew could easily have won it….
 
skanless13 said:
I don’t know. Snake’s really burnt their bullpen out tonight, and if it wasn’t for Longiria’s clutch catch in the 5th, Brewcrew could easily have won it….
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Really comes down to whether Gallen and Kelly can go 7 strong each, pretty sure yesterday was expected with the two horses coming

Get to the 8th and let Ginkel then Sewald do their things was the formula for success before game 1 even started. That was always going to be a bullpen game.
 
I am rollin with the Rags again tonight. The only series that I think goes 3 games in the Snakes and Beers.

After further review i kinda like the Snakes again. Line is sharp.
 
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Texas is the only early public dog, no steam to speak of in that one

Other 3 games aren't significantly public either way but all three home teams were steamed
 
Playing the streak trend……

RR Texas,Minnesota,Arizona, Philadelphia
RR Texas U,Minnesota U, Arizona O, Philadelphia U

Also had these series RR at +money
Texas
Toronto
Arizona
Miami

Seems like playoff games tend to be lower scoring…….the 7.5 made me hesitate yesterday. Went with no scoring 1st innings instead of All Unders…..

Going back to RR no scoring 1st innings again….
 
Inspekdah said:
They moved it a whole out down on Gallen. 16.5 -105. Weird!
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Wow. That is crazy. I don’t understand it at all. Im not sure I have ever had a out or k totsl move against me, occasionally juice might go down a bit but not sure I’ve ever had one where the number actually dropped, I have no clue wtf to think of that? Obviously I’m bummed I played 17.5, I just have no idea why he would get bet that direction.??
 
skanless13 said:
I don’t know. Snake’s really burnt their bullpen out tonight, and if it wasn’t for Longiria’s clutch catch in the 5th, Brewcrew could easily have won it….
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As @KJ Said I expect Gallen to give them 7+ tonight as that what aces do when they know the pen had to do work the day prior! Closer only had to throw 11 pitches so he be fine today. Really just comes down to how good you believe Gallen will be and since he one my fav pitchers facing a weak hitting milw lineup I expect him to dominate! I have no clue why in gods name his out total for bet down tho? I went out at fucking midnight and crossed river cause I thought 17.5 -105 would be way higher today?? Lol
 
2daBank said:
I can’t believe I crossed river at 12:30 last night thinking that he would be 17.5 -150 by this morning!! I’m so confused? I dunno if I should bet again or not?
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It's an odd move

So they moved it from completing 2 outs in the 5th to only 1 out? Guessing they took a ton of money on over 17.5 and this could be a juke to entice this very conversation. You can't convince me that money came in on the under, and if it's an injury situation it would have been taken down.

Move from 5.2 to 5.1 innings has to be meant to encourage us to question things imo, that's all.
 
I guess at least I got little better prices on the other 2? Lol. Im so confused by Gallen. Feel like I have to bet him again, 1st I’m gonna dig into shit and see if I can figure why anyone would be playing his under?? Maybe it as simple as someone expects milw to bounce back? I sure the hell dont, I mean they could win but I think it be a 2-1 type game if they do, this Milw lineup should not be a problem for Gallen! He went 7 innings in a start here in milw esrlier in the year!
 
KJ said:
It's an odd move

So they moved it from completing 2 outs in the 5th to only 1 out? Guessing they took a ton of money on over 17.5 and this could be a juke to entice this very conversation. You can't convince me that money came in on the under, and if it's an injury situation it would have been taken down.

Move from 5.2 to 5.1 innings has to be meant to encourage us to question things imo, that's all.
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Move from needing 6 innings to cash to 5.2
 
I always assume it money that moves these. It seems crazy they would move a line to cause confusion, wouldn’t that put them at a huge risk. Anyone doing this who believes in their numbers ain’t gonna bet less cause they dropped it, im mostly just pissed I went out late at night only to bet a apparent shit line? It could be someone manipulating it and hits over? I dunno, I’m seriously considering betting more on over but my one concern is there is something wrong w him not being reported, or someone saw him out drinking and doing blow at 4:30 this morning!!
 
2daBank said:
I always assume it money that moves these. It seems crazy they would move a line to cause confusion, wouldn’t that put them at a huge risk. Anyone doing this who believes in their numbers ain’t gonna bet less cause they dropped it, im mostly just pissed I went out late at night only to bet a apparent shit line? It could be someone manipulating it and hits over? I dunno, I’m seriously considering betting more on over but my one concern is there is something wrong w him not being reported, or someone saw him out drinking and doing blow at 4:30 this morning!!
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That's my point, if something is wrong do they really move it from 6 innings to 5.2? What's the point? That would be a seriously random move.
 
Ryno14 said:
Love the Rays today. Know offense can go hot and cold, but Ev not been same since injury and think Rays get to the pen today
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Yesterday was just a strange game. The errors and a soft tosser that made hitters look foolish. Also very key in watching that, Montgomery was getting calls several inches off the outside of the plate to righties which is strictly an umpire thing, he wasn't calling it that way on the other side of the plate.
 
I’m am a little concerned how terrible rays played, that was very uncharacteristic for them. And cmon rays fans, less than 20k for a playoff game? That team deserves better fans! They should move!
 
2daBank said:
I’m am a little concerned how terrible rays played, that was very uncharacteristic for them. And cmon rays fans, less than 20k for a playoff game? That team deserves better fans! They should move!
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Does suck that they get a 3pm start time yesterday and today, pretty much have to take a half day to go to a wild card game if you have a job
 
KJ said:
Yesterday was just a strange game. The errors and a soft tosser that made hitters look foolish. Also very key in watching that, Montgomery was getting calls several inches off the outside of the plate to righties which is strictly an umpire thing, he wasn't calling it that way on the other side of the plate.
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I seriously can’t wait till we have a 17 year old w a iPad making the correct calls. It so stupid we can see a box on tv that tells us if it a ball or strike yet the game itself has some old Fuxk behind the plate guessing! Years ago I hated this idea cause I liked capping umps but I’m so over that shit, I just want balls to be called balls and strikes to be strikes, not this one guy gets 6 inches of the plate while the other gets squeezed nonsense.
 
KJ said:
Does suck that they get a 3pm start time yesterday and today, pretty much have to take a half day to go to a wild card game if you have a job
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That true. Im just very glad snakes got night games, I’d be way more worried bout Gallen if it was a day road start.
 
2daBank said:
I seriously can’t wait till we have a 17 year old w a iPad making the correct calls. It so stupid we can see a box on tv that tells us if it a ball or strike yet the game itself has some old Fuxk behind the plate guessing! Years ago I hated this idea cause I liked capping umps but I’m so over that shit, I just want balls to be called balls and strikes to be strikes, not this one guy gets 6 inches of the plate while the other gets squeezed nonsense.
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It works in tennis because there is a physical line, not some graphic box that I don't trust

I've not seen it work in any other sport because judgment is part of sport. That box is just as much a guess as pass interference or a charging foul
 
KJ said:
It works in tennis because there is a physical line, not some graphic box that I don't trust

I've not seen it work in any other sport because judgment is part of sport. That box is just as much a guess as pass interference or a charging foul
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You think. They often show a replay the pitch clearly catching a corner just how box had it. It damn sure would stop the Assholes that call them 6 inches off the plate that so obvious on tv ain’t strikes! Ain’t they already doing it in some the minor leagues or winter league? I trust that box immensely more than the umps!
 
Anyone not want to play Royce Lewis props today? I think I have to! Lol. Def going back to the Arozarena well, dude has a playoff ops over 1.100!! He shows up in big moments and rays need him today!
 
Tnink In the playoffs some guys are just that dude, it’s the only reason Jeter is so revered!! Guys I think (or know in some cases) are that dude.

Arozarena is without question that dude. 1.100+ playoff ops, you see him in hr derby? This kid loves the biggest stages!! Rays need him today as much as ever. Ov 1.5 h/r/rbi -115

Royce Lewis for the twins sure looks like that dude, twinks had lost 18 straight playoff games, he been on shel past 2 weeks, wasn’t sure he could play and he hits 2 bombs! Im
Willing to bet he keeps it going! Ov 1.5 he/rbi -125

It took Trey Turner awhile as it almost always does when guy signs monster deal on new team, sone guys take till the following season to live up to it, but Trey being that dude has got it together in 2nd half and was big last night, he don’t have the crazy career playoff numbers as our guy in tampa but he has had plenty of nice moments on a WS team and he has 2 jacks in 6 at bats vs this pitcher!! Ov 1.5 h/r/rbi -155 (kinda pricey but we not playing straight!)

Im gonna RR these 3, I think Carroll for the snakes is that dude also and thought bout a 4 teamer but I think he facing the pitcher who has the nastiest stuff. The 3 above facing guys I know they can handle!
 
And yes, I just hit Gallen ov 16.5 outs -105,, Fuxk it, I don’t understand it. Guys like this dude not only show up when it matters but a day after their team has to use the entire pen they eat innings!! For my money this one the best pitchers in baseball even if his stats and metics not as pretty as others this year. The thing is he can be as dominant as anyone but the main culprit I noticed this year he had some particularly awful starts in road games, more noteavly day road games, especially early starts east of the Mississippi!! I’ve come to the conclusion I really don’t think Zach is a day person and his eternal clock really gets thrown off pitching early on east or even Midwest time zones. Maybe I’m nuts but that is what ive come to think bout all this and very early this year I stopped betting him in such games.,

He has had plenty of road gems, just recently

@nyy 6 innings no runs 8k’s

@ wrigley complete game shutout in a huge game in the playoff race!

@sd 6.1 and 1 run

@minny 7 inning 2 runs 8k’s


There are others, I won’t list them all but I think this one has relevance

@milw 7 innings 3 hits, 1 run!!

There no way I believe this milw lineup can run him from this game early, they simply don’t take good enough at bats and he to damn good. I don’t understand the line move and quite frankly I don’t fucking care, if it loses so be it, I think this a 70% wins type play.
 
2daBank said:
And yes, I just hit Gallen ov 16.5 outs -105,, Fuxk it, I don’t understand it. Guys like this dude not only show up when it matters but a day after their team has to use the entire pen they eat innings!! For my money this one the best pitchers in baseball even if his stats and metics not as pretty as others this year. The thing is he can be as dominant as anyone but the main culprit I noticed this year he had some particularly awful starts in road games, more noteavly day road games, especially early starts east of the Mississippi!! I’ve come to the conclusion I really don’t think Zach is a day person and his eternal clock really gets thrown off pitching early on east or even Midwest time zones. Maybe I’m nuts but that is what ive come to think bout all this and very early this year I stopped betting him in such games.,

He has had plenty of road gems, just recently

@nyy 6 innings no runs 8k’s

@ wrigley complete game shutout in a huge game in the playoff race!

@sd 6.1 and 1 run

@minny 7 inning 2 runs 8k’s


There are others, I won’t list them all but I think this one has relevance

@milw 7 innings 3 hits, 1 run!!

There no way I believe this milw lineup can run him from this game early, they simply don’t take good enough at bats and he to damn good. I don’t understand the line move and quite frankly I don’t fucking care, if it loses so be it, I think this a 70% wins type play.
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They also used a shit ton of arms yesterday. I think they hand him the ball and say go get it!
 
Marlins Man was behind the plate in Milwaukee last night while the actual Marlins were playing in Philly

Only guess is that since the Brew sealed the deal for a home series early he just booked that
 
2daBank said:
And yes, I just hit Gallen ov 16.5 outs -105,, Fuxk it, I don’t understand it. Guys like this dude not only show up when it matters but a day after their team has to use the entire pen they eat innings!! For my money this one the best pitchers in baseball even if his stats and metics not as pretty as others this year. The thing is he can be as dominant as anyone but the main culprit I noticed this year he had some particularly awful starts in road games, more noteavly day road games, especially early starts east of the Mississippi!! I’ve come to the conclusion I really don’t think Zach is a day person and his eternal clock really gets thrown off pitching early on east or even Midwest time zones. Maybe I’m nuts but that is what ive come to think bout all this and very early this year I stopped betting him in such games.,

He has had plenty of road gems, just recently

@nyy 6 innings no runs 8k’s

@ wrigley complete game shutout in a huge game in the playoff race!

@sd 6.1 and 1 run

@minny 7 inning 2 runs 8k’s


There are others, I won’t list them all but I think this one has relevance

@milw 7 innings 3 hits, 1 run!!

There no way I believe this milw lineup can run him from this game early, they simply don’t take good enough at bats and he to damn good. I don’t understand the line move and quite frankly I don’t fucking care, if it loses so be it, I think this a 70% wins type play.
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I just got over 15.5! Let’s goooo
 
The difference between 15.5 and 17.5 is thinking he gets in trouble in the 5th and gets pulled

This is twilight zone shit
 
KJ said:
The difference between 15.5 and 17.5 is thinking he gets in trouble in the 5th and gets pulled

This is twilight zone shit
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It’s massive imo. The 6th is most def the inning guys get yanked even during solid starts. Other than 1-2 crazy outliers like Kirby getting smashed by pirates my w/l on 17.5 always either cashes or guy comes out after 5.1-5.2
 
number2 said:
I RR them along with Nola…….
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Nola worries me, he hasn’t been great this year and his record vs the fish is pretty freaking awful, especially considering they mostly been bad! I sure hope he good but I think Philly offense might have to win this one. I’ll be very happy if you cash Nola, pretty sure that means I cash Philly 2-0! so good luck bro!!
 
2daBank said:
Nola worries me, he hasn’t been great this year and his record vs the fish is pretty freaking awful, especially considering they mostly been bad! I sure hope he good but I think Philly offense might have to win this one. I’ll be very happy if you cash Nola, pretty sure that means I cash Philly 2-0! so good luck bro!!
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Eddings VERY possible
 
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