Play2win's NFL 2013

Den @ Dal o31.5 2H 0.55/0.5u
Dal o14 2H (-115) 0.575/0.5u
Dal +4.5 2H (+105) 0.5/0.525u
Dal +220 2H 0.5/1.1u
 
Boldin o67.5 rec yds (-145) 0.725/0.5u
Boldin 1st TD of game +700 0.5/3.5u
V Davis 1st TD of game +900 0.5/4.5u
 
Week #1: -0.85u
Week #2: -1.35u
Week #3: -1.675u
Week #4: -1.795u
Season: -5.67u



Week #5

Cle -3 (-115) 0.575/0.5u
KC -2.5 (-115) 0.575/0.5u
Balt +3.5 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Ravens +120 0.5/0.6u
Cin -1 0.55/0.5u
Cin -105 0.525/0.5u
Det @ GB o51.5 0.55/0.5u
Chi pk 0.55/0.5u
Chi pk +100 0.5/0.5u
Forte o85.5 rush yds -115 0.575/0.5u
Phi +3.5 0.55/0.5u
SF -6 0.55/0.5u
Den @ Dal o55 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
live Den @ Dal o70.5 (-130) 0.65/0.5u
Dal +7.5 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
Dal +10 (-130) 0.65/0.5u
Dal +4.5 1H (+110) 0.5/0.55u L by 3.5 pts
Dal +200 1H 0.5/1u
Den @ Dal o31.5 2H 0.55/0.5u
Dal o14 2H (-115) 0.575/0.5u
Dal +4.5 2H (+105) 0.5/0.525u
Dal +220 2H 0.5/1.1u
live Arz +170 0.5/0.85u
live Arz +190 1H 0.5/0.95u L by 3 pts
Arz +135 2H 0.5/0.675u
Colts +120 1.5/1.8u
Kc @ Ten u48.5/GB +3/Atl pk teaser 0.6/0.5u
Dal +19/SF +5/Atl pk teaser 0.6/0.5u
GB -6 1H 0.55/0.5u L by 3 pts
GB -9.5 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
SF -4 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
SF -4 0.55/0.5u
SF -3 1H (-105) 0.525/0.5u
SF -3 1H (+100) 0.5/0.5u
Boldin o67.5 rec yds (-145) 0.725/0.5u
Boldin 1st TD of game +700 0.5/3.5u
V Davis 1st TD of game +900 0.5/4.5u


10/13

Ravens +3 (+100) 0.5/0.5u
Patriots -3 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Vikings -1.5 0.55/0.5u
 
10/13

Ravens +3 (+100) 0.5/0.5u
Ravens +3 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
Patriots -3 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Saints @ Pats o49.5 0.55/0.5u
Vikings -1.5 0.55/0.5u
Vikings -2 0.55/0.5u
Eagles pk 1.1/1u

10/14

Colts -1 0.55/0.5u
 
Week #1: -0.85u
Week #2: -1.35u
Week #3: -1.675u
Week #4: -1.795u
Season: -5.67u



Week #5

Cle -3 (-115) 0.575/0.5u
KC -2.5 (-115) 0.575/0.5u
Balt +3.5 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Ravens +120 0.5/0.6u
Cin -1 0.55/0.5u
Cin -105 0.525/0.5u
Det @ GB o51.5 0.55/0.5u
Chi pk 0.55/0.5u
Chi pk +100 0.5/0.5u
Forte o85.5 rush yds -115 0.575/0.5u
Phi +3.5 0.55/0.5u
SF -6 0.55/0.5u
Den @ Dal o55 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
live Den @ Dal o70.5 (-130) 0.65/0.5u
Dal +7.5 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
Dal +10 (-130) 0.65/0.5u
Dal +4.5 1H (+110) 0.5/0.55u L by 3.5 pts
Dal +200 1H 0.5/1u
Den @ Dal o31.5 2H 0.55/0.5u
Dal o14 2H (-115) 0.575/0.5u
Dal +4.5 2H (+105) 0.5/0.525u
Dal +220 2H 0.5/1.1u
live Arz +170 0.5/0.85u
live Arz +190 1H 0.5/0.95u L by 3 pts
Arz +135 2H 0.5/0.675u
Colts +120 1.5/1.8u
Kc @ Ten u48.5/GB +3/Atl pk teaser 0.6/0.5u
Dal +19/SF +5/Atl pk teaser 0.6/0.5u
GB -6 1H 0.55/0.5u L by 3 pts
GB -9.5 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
SF -4 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
SF -4 0.55/0.5u
SF -3 1H (-105) 0.525/0.5u
SF -3 1H (+100) 0.5/0.5u
SF o10 2H 0.55/0.5u
SD @ Oak o46 0.55/0.5u L by 2 pts
 Boldin o67.5 rec yds (-145) 0.725/0.5u
Boldin 1st TD of game +700 0.5/3.5u
V Davis 1st TD of game +900 0.5/4.5u


10/13

Ravens +3 (+100) 0.5/0.5u
Ravens +3 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
Patriots -3 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Saints @ Pats o49.5 0.55/0.5u
Vikings -1.5 0.55/0.5u
Vikings -2 0.55/0.5u
Eagles pk 1.1/1u

10/14

Colts -1 0.55/0.5u
 
Last edited:
Rj Bell:

Raiders @ Chiefs (-8.5) -- 1 p.m.

Alex Smith last 31 games as a starter: 25-5-1 SU

Favorite in Raiders games: 10-3 ATS last 13

Oakland/KC: Underdog has covered 8 straight in series.

Raiders: 18-4 ATS as road underdogs against division opponent

KC: Lost 11 straight ATS when favored within the division

Chiefs have covered only 1 of last 14 hosting Raiders

Teams have scored TDs only 25% of the time when reaching the Red Zone vs. KC
(making KC the best in the NFL; such extreme results tend to even out over long run)

Oakland:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 28 games (since start of last season)
Eagles @ Buccaneers (+1.5) -- 1 p.m.

Bucs have lost 9 straight games when opponent has not rested starters.

Bucs: Last 40 home games, never once covered the spread two straight times!

Bucs 4-16 ATS as a home underdog

Eagles: 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight road game

Eagles have yielded 32 points per game the last 15 games

NFL scoring: #32) Jax 10.2 ppg; #31) TB 11.0 ppg (30[SUP]th[/SUP] team scoring over 17 ppg)

Bucs: Winless teams (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS last 20 seasons

Winless teams (0-3 or worse) off bye: 27-10-1 ATS

Packers @ Ravens (+3) -- 1 p.m.

Flacco at home: 37-7 SU (23-21 ATS)

Only 3[SUP] [/SUP]prior times Ravens home underdogs in the last 4 seasons.
Only 12 prior times (since 1980) that the defending Super Bowl champs are home underdogs.
Only home game for Ravens in 5 weeks.

Baltimore: 28[SUP]th[/SUP] ranked offense (YPP)
Packers lost 4 straight on road

Home team in Packers game has covered 11 of 12 games

Packers have given up the least rushing yards in the NFL
Packers are gaining the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] most yards per rush attempt in the NFL

Mike McCarthy only coach in NFL with more than 60 games coached who is over 60% ATS
Lions @ Browns (+3) -- 1 p.m.

Lions on the road (starting in 2006): 21-37-2 (36%)
Lions – a dome team - have covered only 2 of last 11 on GRASS.

Lions 3-15 ATS as a road favorite

Lions: 4[SUP]th[/SUP] road game in 5 weeks

Browns: #1 D in NFL (YPP)

Calvin Johnson status?

Spread in this game before last week’s games: Detroit -1.5
Panthers @ Vikings (-2.5) -- 1 p.m.

Cam Newton 2-14 SU in one score games.

Ron Rivera, in three seasons, has started seasons 1-5 and 1-6 and now 1-3

Vikings giving up over 30 points per game

Panthers: Road dog off road loss: 64% since 2003

Rams @ Texans (-7.5) -- 1 p.m.
Jeff Fisher is 86-56 ATS (61%) in his coaching career as an underdog.

Texans lost by 30+ last week. Next week big losers are 57% ATS (since 1990)

Texans lost 7 straight regular season games ATS

Texans have outgained opponents by 653 yards on the season (no other NFL team better than +380)

Rams were outgained by Jacksonville last week

Net Yards Per Play:
#32: Jags -1.7
#31: Rams -1.5
#30: Bucs -.6

Steelers @ Jets (-2) -- 1 p.m.

Jets are 51-84 ATS as a home favorite

Favorite has covered only 3 out of last 13 Steelers games

Pitt: Have not forced a single turnover this season

Jets: Tied for the best “net yards per play” in NFL

Steelers: 58 yards per game rush (worst in NFL)

Steelers not complacent – making numerous roster moves

Steelers: Winless teams (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS last 20 seasons

Winless teams (0-3 or worse) off bye: 27-10-1 ATS

Before Jets MNF win (remember, Pitt is off bye) . . . Steelers favored by 2 points
Bengals @ Bills (+7) -- 1 p.m.

Bengals: 10-3 overall ATS run

Bengals 11-4-3 ATS on the road

Only 2 teams have scored TDs a higher percentage of time than Cincy when in the Red Zone
(percentages that over-perform the general quality of the offense tends to even out in the long run)

Bills last 30 games: lost against the spread by a NET 146 points.

Titans @ Seahawks (-13.5) -- 4:05 p.m.

Seattle: 15-4 ATS overall last 19

Seattle 13-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

Seattle:
(starting in 2005): 70% ATS at home (49-21-1)
On road during same period: 39% (28-44-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 93-49-2 (66% winners)

And Tennessee is BAD when overmatched on the road:
as an away underdog of 5 or more,
the Titans have covered only 4 of 17 ATS

Jaguars @ Broncos (-27) -- 4:05 p.m.

Biggest favorite in recorded point spread history.

8 NFL teams have been favored by at least 21-points since 1972.
7 did NOT cover the spread.

Underdogs +17 or more: 20-7 ATS (from 1992 onward)

Denver has won 16 straight regular season games (13-3 ATS)

Denver 38% ATS at home (23-37) since 2006

Jags: Road dog off road loss: 64% since 2003

Jags: Winless teams (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS last 20 seasons

31% chance (based on betting odds) Peyton Manning will NOT play past the midway point of the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] Quarter vs. Jacksonville

Denver: scoring 16 points per game more than any other NFL team.

Only one defense worse than Denver (YPP)

Denver plays AT Indy next week
Cardinals @ 49ers (-10.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

49ers at home under Harbaugh are 17-5-1 ATS

Cards covered only 42% on road since 2002 (38-53-2)
Saints @ Patriots (-2.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

New England has won 32 of 35 regular season home games (SU).

Belichick covered 23 of 32 ATS off a straight-up loss

Saints have covered 12 of 13 regular season games under Payton

Saints ranked 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in Red Zone scoring percentage
(a good offense would be expected to do better over the long run)

Pats: 25[SUP]th[/SUP] best offense (YPP)

Saints:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 28 games since start of last season

Redskins @ Cowboys (-5.5) -- 8:30 p.m.

Cowboys have covered only 5 of 21 games as a home favorite

Last 4 seasons: the underdog has covered 72% of Dallas games (38-15 ATS)

Shanahan has never lost ATS (6-0) to Jason Garrett

Cowboys: Only 3 teams with a better offense (YPP); Only 4 teams with a worst offense

Bye could help RG3’s health

Cowboys 16-31 ATS within division
MNF: Colts @ Chargers (+1.5) -- 8:40 p.m.

Since 2001, Monday Night Home underdogs: 27-42 ATS (39%)

Teams favored the week after playing the Seahawks: 3-17 ATS

SD: Worse D in the NFL (YPP)

Before last week’s games: Chargers favored by 2.5 in this game
 
added:

Raiders +7 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Texans -6.5 (-140) 0.7/0.5u
Browns +120 0.5/0.6u
Eagles/Patriots ml parlay 0.5/1.02u
 
Week #1: -0.85u
Week #2: -1.35u
Week #3: -1.675u
Week #4: -1.795u
Week #5: +7.35u
Season: +1.68u



Week #6

live Giants +300 0.5/1.5u
Ravens +3 (+100) 0.5/0.5u
Ravens +3 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
Patriots -3 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Saints @ Pats o49.5 0.55/0.5u
N.O. @ NE o49 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
Vikings -1.5 0.55/0.5u
Vikings -2 0.55/0.5u
Eagles pk 1.1/1u
Raiders +7 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Texans -6.5 (-140) 0.7/0.5u
Browns +120 0.5/0.6u
Eagles/Patriots ml parlay 0.5/1.02u

10/14

Colts -1 0.55/0.5u
 
Play2win said:
Week #1: -0.85u
Week #2: -1.35u
Week #3: -1.675u
Week #4: -1.795u
Week #5: +7.35u
Season: +1.68u



Week #6

live Giants +300 0.5/1.5u
Ravens +3 (+100) 0.5/0.5u
Ravens +3 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
Patriots -3 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Saints @ Pats o49.5 0.55/0.5u
N.O. @ NE o49 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
Vikings -1.5 0.55/0.5u
Vikings -2 0.55/0.5u
Eagles pk 1.1/1u
Raiders +7 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Texans -6.5 (-140) 0.7/0.5u
Browns +120 0.5/0.6u
Eagles/Patriots ml parlay 0.5/1.02u

10/14

Colts -1 0.55/0.5u
Click to expand...
added:

Hou/SF/Sea/Bos (mlb) ml parlay 0.5/1.11u
 
Week #1: -0.85u
Week #2: -1.35u
Week #3: -1.675u
Week #4: -1.795u
Week #5: +7.35u
Season: +1.68u



Week #6

live Giants +300 0.5/1.5u
Ravens +3 (+100) 0.5/0.5u
Ravens +3 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
Patriots -3 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Saints @ Pats o49.5 0.55/0.5u
N.O. @ NE o49 (-120) 0.6/0.5u
Vikings -1.5 0.55/0.5u
Vikings -2 0.55/0.5u
Eagles pk 1.1/1u
 Raiders +7 (-105) 0.525/0.5u
Texans -6.5 (-140) 0.7/0.5u
Browns +120 0.5/0.6u
Eagles/Patriots ml parlay 0.5/1.02u
live Sea -9.5 0.55/0.5u
Wash +6 0.55/0.5u
Wash +210 ml 0.5/1.05u
Hou/SF/Sea/Bos (mlb) ml parlay 0.5/1.11u
SF/NE/Bos (Mlb) ml parlay 0.5/1.5u
SF/NE ml parlay 1/1.23u

10/14

Colts -1 0.55/0.5u

10/20

Jets +4.5 0.55/0.5u
 
Play, I thought line would move toward Pats so I'm waitiing. Do you think it will go down?
 
Dollaz said:
Play, I thought line would move toward Pats so I'm waitiing. Do you think it will go down?
Click to expand...
I see one source says early action 75% NE/25% Jets...not really sure if it moves past 4.5 w/ last meeting being 3 pt game in Foxboro...just wanted that 4.5 early...in case 24-20 or so...since I only have 0.5u on it and not in love w/ weeks card, could go back for more if it hit a number like 6.
 
Play2win said:
I see one source says early action 75% NE/25% Jets...not really sure if it moves past 4.5 w/ last meeting being 3 pt game in Foxboro...just wanted that 4.5 early...in case 24-20 or so...since I only have 0.5u on it and not in love w/ weeks card, could go back for more if it hit a number like 6.
Click to expand...
also Gronk and Talib info will factor in one way or other imo
 
Play2win said:
10/20

Jets +4.5 0.55/0.5u
Click to expand...
Week #7

also looking @ under in Kc, Under in Det...maybe Cincy...possible cin/under parlay, Phi - would be on card now but don't like -1 juiced @ -125...Dal not having Ware and Murray could be big, riding Foles, looks like Rams and Bucs are getting too many points and i'll give them a look, Browns are looking good @ +10...#8 vs pass and #7 vs run...don't like this GB defense at all (#28 vs pass), really banged up...also Cle 1H, they are 6-0 SU in 1H this season, maybe Ravens, would love to take Colts but not thrilled about short week, maybe AP prop fading Giants bad rush D which ranks #26 in NFL while allowing over 123 on the ground per game.
 
[TABLE="class: slip-tbl, width: 245"]
<tbody>[TR="class: single"]
[TD="colspan: 3"]Oct 20 01:00 PM EST - Football NFL - 398 New York Jets +5 -110 for Game [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: single"]
[TD="colspan: 3"] Oct 20 04:25 PM EST - Football NFL - 417 Cleveland Browns +10½ -110 for Game [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: single"]
[TD="colspan: 3"] Oct 18 08:00 PM EST - Football NCAA - 307 Central Florida Golden Knights +12½ -110 for Game

3 teamer 1/6u[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Rj Bell:

Patriots @ Jets (+3.5) -- 1 p.m.

The week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 46-80 ATS (37% since 2005)

Patriots playing Jets in New York: 12-2 ATS
Chargers @ Jaguars (+7.5) -- 1 p.m.

Big road fav:
Last 20 seasons, road favorites laying 7 or more have covered only 41% of the time.

Jags: Winless underdogs (NFL Week 6 or later): 64% ATS (since 1992)

Jags have scored 5 points at home this season – giving up 65 points.

10 am Pacific time start for Chargers.

SD:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 30 games (since start of last season)
Texans @ Chiefs (-6) -- 1 p.m.

Texans have outgained opponents by 857 yards
That's #1 in the NFL, 362 yards better than the 2nd best team.
That means Houston is outgaining opponents by 142 yards per game Undefeated KC is only outgaining opponents by an average of only 20 yards page game.

Coach Kubiack in career as a dog of 4 or more points: 38% (13-21 ATS)

Alex Smith last 32 games as a starter: 26-5-1 SU

Strong home field for KC when crowd is engaged.

Texans:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 30 games (since start of last season)
Bengals @ Lions (-2.5) -- 1 p.m.

Bengals: 10-4 overall ATS run

Bengals on road: 11-5-3 ATS

Bengals: third road game in 4 weeks

Lions, after scoring 30 or more points the prior game: lost 11 straight ATS
Bills @ Dolphins (-7.5) -- 1 p.m.

Biggest favorite for Dolphins in last 4 seasons

Dolphins, as a home favorite: 10-33 ATS (back to 2003)
Dolphins, as a home favorite of 6 or more points: 1-11 ATS

Dolphins outgained yardage-wise in EVERY game this season.

Visitor in Miami games 53-31 ATS

Bills last 31 games: lost against the spread by a NET 143 points combined
Bears @ Redskins (-1) -- 1 p.m.

Coach Shanahan’s last 27 games as home favorite (at Washington & Denver): covered 5 and lost 22 ATS

In 4 seasons under Shanahan, Redskins have covered only 3 times as a home favorite.

Bears:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 30 games (since start of last season)
Cowboys @ Eagles (-3) -- 1 p.m.

Big line move: Dallas opened a 3-point favorite

Underdog has covered 70% of Dallas games (38-16 ATS the last 4 seasons)

Cowboys, after winning a game: 4-15 ATS

Cowboys, playing within the division: 17-31 ATS

Eagles have not covered a home game since 2011 season (losing 10 straight ATS; 7-24 ATS last 31 at home)

Cowboys/Eagles: Underdog covered 21 of 29 in this series.
Teams Eagles have lost to are 15-3 SU on the season
Teams Eagles have beat are 1-15 SU on the season

Dallas last week: lowest offense yardage output in last 45 Cowboys games

Rams @ Panthers (-6) -- 1 p.m.

Jeff Fisher as a underdog: 87-56 ATS (61%) in his coaching career

Rams: First game this season outdoors.

Rams +4 TO margin last week vs. Texans

Cam Newton in one-score games: 2-14 SU

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-7) -- 1 p.m.

Falcons: only 4[SUP]th[/SUP] team with 1-4 record (in last 25 years) to be favored by a TD or more.

The next game after a loss: Atlanta has covered 21 of 26!

Only 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] time in last 4 seasons Falcons lost two games in a row.

Coach Smith as a favorite: 35-22 ATS (61%) in his coaching career

Bucs have lost 10 straight games when opponent has not rested starters.

Bucs: Winless underdog (NFL Week 6 or later): 64% ATS (since 1992)

Tampa 20-11 ATS on the road

Roddy White averaging 26 yards per game receiving this season.

Teams last played Week 17 last season – note that Atlanta rested starters in that game.

49ers @ Titans (+4) -- 4:05 p.m.

49ers:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 30 games (since start of last season)
Browns @ Packers (-10) -- 4:25 p.m.

Home team in Packers games have covered 12 of 13 ATS

Last 18 times Green Bay lost against the spread, covered the next game 16 times.

Packers at home have covered 23 of 31
Ravens @ Steelers (-1.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

7 of last 9 games between Pitt/Balt ended with exactly a 3-point margin.

Steelers: 7-15-1 overall ATS run

Steelers have not topped 80 rushing yards in any game this season

Baltimore:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 30 games (since start of last season)
Broncos @ Colts (+6.5) -- 8:30 p.m.

Denver has won 17 straight regular season games (13-4 ATS)

Colts:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 30 games (since start of last season)

Only two NFL teams have a worse NFL defense (yards per play) than Denver

Denver: scoring 14 points per game more than any other NFL team.

Luck as a home dog: 5-0 ATS and SU
Luck is undefeated after a loss: 6-0 SU and ATS
MNF: Vikings @ Giants (-3) -- 8:40 p.m.

Giants first 0-6 team in recorded point spread history to be favored by more than a field goal.

NYG: Winless teams (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS (since 1992)

Giants at home: only 2 of 14 winning seasons ATS

Giants -16 in takeaways (worst in NFC); entering this week, the second worse NFC was -3 in takeaways.

Giants on pace to give up most points in NFL history.
 
[TABLE="class: slip-tbl, width: 245"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: selection, colspan: 3"]Oct 20 01:00 PM EST - Football NFL - 398 New York Jets +10½ for Game (taking 6 points) [/TD]
[TD="class: fp"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: selection, colspan: 3"] Oct 20 01:00 PM EST - Football NFL - 406 Miami Dolphins -1 for Game (taking 6 points)

1.1/1u[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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