Play Ball - Monday 12/5

[play ball]

Hey guys,

Going to add my own thread. If I can learn from mistakes, I hope to get better.

Recap of yesterday for myself (not included in any record keeping)
ORL and DET over 96.0 - 2H - Loss
2nd half didn't have the free flowing scoring first half did. Bad play. I am better off avoiding 2h overs, but seem to always be sucked in. Score was 58-50 at half, ended 97-92.

IND plus 5.5 over Clips - 2H - Win
-IND played well with PG and a healthy team, was down early in 1Q, played well in 2Q and took a shot on them 2H. IND started 3Q on 15-2 run and never looked back to easily cover.




To be honest...I will mostly be talking about road favorites. Here we go for Monday....

DEN -4.5 at PHI
Lean to PHI plus the points.
-PHI is 7-3 on 1 days rest and 8-2 ATS in last 10 vs. teams under .400. PHI plays pretty well at home and DEN is struggling, 1-5 SU and ATS in last 6.

WAS -5.5 at BKN
Play is on WAS.
-WAS can't win on road, but played really well against better teams lately while BKN is 0-6 in last 8 games not getting 10 pts. BKN 1-10 SU and 2-8-1 ATS in last 11.

SA -5.5 at MIL
Lean to SA -5.5
-SA is a road killer - 7-3 ATS (2 losses by hook). MIL is a hot team, riding 4 game win streak, but last 2 against BKN. SA won last 3 matchups by DD.

CHA -4.0 at DAL
Lean to DAL plus the points.
-CHA started hot, but 2-7 ATS in last 9. DAL covered 4 straight, including 2 upset dog wins, but 4 points not a lot of wiggle room.

UTA -3 at Lakers
-Play is on UTA
-Lakers coming home from 4/5 on the EC with only one day rest, lost D-Lo, Nick Young, Huertas, and Nance is questionable after missing last game. I am a Laker homer, so don't always have a good read on them, but this is a terrible spot against a team that likes to beat us. UTA covered 5 of 6 as well.

PLAYS
2* on WAS -5.5 over BKN.
4* on UTA -3 over Lakers


Any and all discussion welcome.

BOL
play ball

 

[hugh613]

Good luck play ball.

 

[play ball]

Thanks hugh. BOL to you as well.

1-1 for plus 1.8 units, lost by the hook on WAS.

YTD
4* 1-0
2* 0-1

YTD 1-1 for plus 1.8 units





What I learned....
DEN/WAS/CHA/SA were all -4 to -6 on road, 2 of 4 covered, all 4 had to come from behind. I lost by the hook on WAS.
Jazz were -3 - covered by 3.

All 5 won on ML, still trying to decide when to play on ML.

2.5 is the key number for lines when betting on road teams, thats one basket, lot of close games in the NBA.

Leans on 12/5
PHI - lost the cover late
SA - terrible 2Q, had 4q lead, held on for dear life. No cover.
DAL - played well, CHA ran them down in 4Q.

Plays on 12/5 1-1, plus 1.8 units
WAS -5.5 - down 15 at the half, won 2H by 20, lost cover by a hook. BKN outhustled them in 1H.
UTA -3 - great start, Lakers fought, close game at half, opened 2H on 14-0 run to get up big, but 1-7 to start 4Q while Lakers 5-8 turned a big lead into a hold on for dear life. Not a great team up big in 4Q. Announcers said they did same vs. DEN other night.

Final in Jazz at Lakers - 107-101...they changed Clarkson's "3" to a 2 that was with about 28 seconds to go. Randle's last basket was big for me...




Unposted - just for me to know what works and what doesn't, no record keeping.
Wiz ML -240 over BKN - little bit of juice (I am comfortable up to -500 in small increments), didn't go big, but helped take sting out of losing by hook.
UTA ML -150 over Lakers - I felt confident Lakers were going to lose, looked good in 3Q, dicey in 4th, made just enough shots to cover.

In-Game Unposted
Lakers plus 8.0 when score was 95-89 during a timeout, Lou Will was leading Lakers back. Took it because Jazz were settling and missing 3s and also missing FT's. Jazz didn't miss FT's and made a couple 3s, but Lakers fought and got lucky with 4-0 run in last 32 seconds, shot by Clarkson from side and Randle to the basket at the end. Lakers don't foul when down late is good info.

Also had an unposted In-Game play on Sun on NYK ML -412 over SAC when they were up DD early in 2Q, of course I didn't know Melo had just gone out, but I didn't trust SAC to comeback. SAC made a run, but Knicks held on for a close win. When playing teams up DD, its a risk, most teams make a run, I try to choose the ones I think will not be able to make the comeback.

Yes, I play unposted (in-games), but will not do record keeping, just posting the why behind the plays.





Only 1 game on the radar for Tue for road favs...Spurs -4 at MIN.
Tough game. Spurs are 3-1 ATS when on road in a b2b. I always feel they are undervalued in b2bs. I checked, they are 10-1 in last 11 b2bs when favored by 0 to 8. MIN doesn't play well to start games. I will learn from this game, I like Spurs, but they aren't putting teams away like they usually do. Spurs on 3-8 ATS run, but are 12-0 SU on road, they are all business on road.

TUE lines that jump at me - Leans only
WAS -3.5 vs. ORL - ORL playing well, covered 4/5 on road, WAS is not a good home team. I think ORL has good shot to win this one. ORL is playing last game of 5 game roadie, won 3/4, really tough game for them on Wed vs. BOS on b2b. WAS 1-3 ATS in lst 4 home games, only win was in OT.

DET -5.5 vs CHI - DET was playing well, but G Reggie Jackson came back on Sunday vs. ORL and they were not the same, takes some time to get used to. D-Wade said he is playing. I like CHI with the points. CHI won 5 in a row as a road dog.


BOL
play ball.

 

[play ball]

In game on ORL -176. Up 51 to 43. Think Was doesn't have what it takes to comeback.

 

[play ball]

ORL held on for the win.

YTD
4* 1-0
2* 0-1

YTD 1-1 for plus 1.8 units

In Game
1-0 +100 (no units, not enough time to post units on in-game plays)


What I learned....
-Spurs are a really good team on b2bs when playing on road. Moved to 11-1 when by favored by 0 to 8. Will watch for this trend again.
-As I alluded to yesterday, Jazz have trouble in 4Q with big leads, should have takens Suns plus 15 when Jazz were winning by 13 in 2Q or even taken Suns 2H when they were down 20. Jazz won, but only by 7 after the big lead.
-I did not post, but Knicks were almost a play today, nice win at MIA who played well on roadie, but couldn't continue at home. Knicks are now 8-1 ATS in last 9, only loss was to triple double led OKC and RW. Interesting game tomorrow with Cavs coming to town.

Lines that jump out went 1-1, DET handled Bulls in 4Q and ORL got me the win on the road at WAS.

 

[play ball]

Can a mod change the title to "play ball - Week of 12/5" please?

 

[play ball]

First glance at Wed...
---*****I have not put any plays in yet, but will put in my plays in the morning...will update thread with plays.



BOS -4.5 at ORL
-Lean to ORL for now.
-ORL playing really good ball as the bench scored 25-20-10-18 for them on Tue night. Home team is 10-0 SU and ATS last 10 meetings. BOS lost 3 straight ATS as favs. BOS tinkering with their lineup as well.

DEN -5 at BKN
-Play is on BKN plus points, hope I learned my lesson from MON. Prob throw in a play on 1H as well.
-DEN 2-5 ATS in last 7, BKN 3-1 in last 4 ATS. BKN had huge lead on MON, but was outscored by 20 in 2h vs. WAS...meanwhile DEN was down big at PHI, but came back for the cover. BKN 5-0 ATS last 5 h2h.

CLE -7.5 at Knicks
-Lean to Knicks plus points, should have played them last night at MIA.
-See above, Knicks are 8-1 ATS last 9, Cle not playing great, just going through motions, 1-4 ATS in last 5 overall and 1-4 ATS in last 5 road games. Played a lot of close games. Knicks 5-3 ATS in last 8 h2h.

SAC -3.5 at DAL
Play is on SAC -3.5.
-DAL is terrible, but has covered 4 of last 5, all 4 were plus 4 or more though. SAC has alternated W-L ATS in last 5, which followed a 7-1 ATS run. SAC off a loss ATS...SAC 4-0 ATS h2h and 8-2 ATS last 10 h2h.

IND -4 at PHX
-lean to IND -4.
-IND is healthy and looking to save face after Klay's big game. Terrible spot in GS, nice to have them off a day of rest. PHX on a b2b after being in Utah, really tough spot. PHX 3-5 at home. PHX 9-1 ATS h2h, woah, that keeps me off IND.

GS -4 at Clips
-pass for me, big game, I usually shy away from. Clips on 2 days rest should be ready. Clips 2-0 on more than 2 days rest (4-1 on b2b, 6-9 on 1 days rest). GS wins and wins, when these two matchup, GS is 6-0 ATS, but alternated W-L ATS to go 3-3 ATS. stay away for me. GS very good at home, but this is a roadie.



Lines that jump out
MIA at ATL -8
-Lean to MIA plus points.
-ATL has no business being a big fav right now. They are a mess of a team, 2-9 ATS in last 10. MIA had 2 days rest before last night, but is 2-1 ATS on b2b. ATL 2-10 ATS on 1 day rest, ouch! Not sure I trust MIA with their short bench is only reason to pass.


Back in the am....

BOL
play ball

 

[play ball]

Plays
2* on BKN plus 4.5 over DEN
2* on MIA plus 9 over ATL
4* on SAC -3 over DAL


BOL
Play ball

 

[play ball]

Good day. won all 3 plays.

YTD
4* 2-0
2* 2-1

YTD 4-1 for plus 9.8 units
-will up my stars once I get a few more games under my belt. Sticking with what's working for now.

In Game
1-0 +100 (no units, not enough time to post units on in-game plays)


What I learned...
-Don't be a chicken, should have played BKN first half, they had big 1st half lead, got outscored in 4q, but hung on for the win and easy cover.
-BKN h2h came through as they play DEN well.
-Already knew, but star out, play the team. BOS dominated 2H to run away from ORL as I. Thomas sat out.
-Marquee games - look for motivation - Lebron likes playing in MSG and had motivation for the "posse" comment, should have played Cavs. Glad I passed on NYK. Feel real bad I skipped Knicks last night at MIA.
-SAC continued the alternating W-L. Led the whole game. "Bad teams don't do well against teams off a loss" is my theory (BTDDWATOAL), need to look into it more.
-IND ran away from PHX in 2H, see above - BTDDWATOAL
-Clips are not the same team that started 14-2, they are slumping a bit.
-ATL played pretty well, MIA was feisty and I won with the extra point. Their bench is a concern when backing them.

-trends that didn't work - home team 10-0 in last 10 matchups and h2h team A 9-1 against team B (Team A a dog today).

Lines that jumped out when 1-0. 2-1 in last two days.

 

[play ball]

First glance at Thu...
---*****I have not put any plays in yet, but will put in my plays in the morning...will update thread with plays.

GS -5.5 at UTA
-Lean to GS -5.5
-UTA needs George Hill to back them and doesn't help that Hood will miss Thu's game as well. GS 13-3 ATS on Thu. UTA 1-7 ATS on Thu. UTa 6-1-1 in last 8 games overall.

SA -3 at CHI
-Lean to SA -3
-SA 3-13-1 ATS in last 17 Thu games. SA 8-4 ATS away, CHI 5-3 ATS at home. CHI 7-5 ATS on 1 day rest, SA 4-5 ATS on 1 day rest. SA very good road team, but CHI likes challenges. Both teams 1-4 ATS in last 5. Pass for me.


Lines that jump out
DEN at WAS -6
-play is on DEN
-seems high. DEN 8-3 ATS away, WAS 4-7 ATS at home. DEN 12-9 SU/WAS 7-13 SU. I think DEN finds a win to win, bounceback from loss at BKN last night. DEN playing 3/4, 5/7 as well. DEN 4-1 ATS h2h. WAS not a scrappy team and lean bench, I like DEN's scrappiness and they will fight, even if down big late.

Back in the am...

BOL
play ball

 

[play ball]

TUE lines that jump at me - Leans only
WAS -3.5 vs. ORL - ORL playing well, covered 4/5 on road, WAS is not a good home team. I think ORL has good shot to win this one. ORL is playing last game of 5 game roadie, won 3/4, really tough game for them on Wed vs. BOS on b2b. WAS 1-3 ATS in lst 4 home games, only win was in OT.

Totally forgot last night the "ORL is playing last game of 5 game roadie, won 3/4, really tough game for them on Wed vs. BOS on b2b."....dang it. add that to the what I learned from Wed.

 

[play ball]

Plays
4* on DEN plus 6.0 (-120) at WAS
2* on GS -7 (-115) at UTA
2* on GS ML -320 at UTA (risking 6.4 to win 2 units)

UTA will have tough time beating GS without Hood and Hill, I like GS to bounceback after tough shooting last night in LA for Curry/KD/Klay.
FWIW - DEN may tinker with lineup, but either way, I am happy getting 6 points on road at WAS.


BOL
play ball

 

[play ball]

DEN leading 29-18 after 1.

Took Den ML -169 for some more.

BOL
Play ball