Play Ball ML thread

[play ball]

I prefer to learn to bet ML. I do know statistically, its a killer, but going to try it anyway. Being selective, not a play everyday, I don't even have time everyday, but I do read.

For tracking puposes, going to start with 10 units for the bankroll.

First play

UTA ML -225 to win 1 unit.
Win = 11 units
Loss = 7.75 units.

Confidence Level = I think I can them all, but it never works out that way. I will rank CL by 1-5. This one is a 4, most will be 3 or 4.

I really like the defense UTA plays, I like that POR expended ton of energy to win last night and is playing b2b in thin air today. I get the better team against a dog that won as a dog last night.

BOL
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[Montanas]

GL with the Jazz today

 

[divol]

Good luck, but you know that Portland isn't playing B2B tonight, right?
They won in Minny on Monday and today is a Wednesday...

 

[YoungGun11]

Good luck, but you know that Portland isn't playing B2B tonight, right?
They won in Minny on Monday and today is a Wednesday...

I agree. But I think he on the right side regardless, good luck!

 

[play ball]

I thought POR was on b2b. Sorry guys, thanks for correction guys.. Still think Jazz win. Play is in. I do worry a little about Favors being questionable, but I like the Jazz defense.

Would downgrade CL to 3 since not a b2b.

 

[Schrute]

GL tonight

 

[play ball]

Lesson learned, be careful in watching the b2b's. I thought Jazz were better and their defense would slow down POR, but was way wrong. I did watch some of last night (the night after, not the POR/UTA game). POR looks really good, liked what I saw and Jazz can beat lesser teams like DEN last night. They pulled away in 4th.

Sitting at 7.75 Units after the loss on WED.


YTD 0-1
2nd play

HOU ML -257 to win 1 unit over SAC
Win = 8.75 units
Loss = 5.18 units.

Confidence Level =3

No Boogie for SAC is always a good time to fade them. HOU had a nice couple games in a row and think they can keep the winning going here. They are top heavy right now, but I like how Harden and Lawson play together, Ariza will defend and DH down low to slow down WCS. Good matchup for Rockets on the road. They do have Clips on deck...but Clips looking for revenge, Rockets looking for wins after slow start.




Thought about TOR ML, but worried about Vucevik being out for ORL and ORL has played hard. I like ORL to cover. I also like Philly to keep it close for CLE. CLE not going full force without Irving and they will have hard time slowing down Okafor down low. I would think about a Lakers ML bet, not necessarily a homer bet, but because both teams are awful, Lakers have more talent and can score, just don't play good schemes on either side of ball....just capping games as I look for ML's to buy, but this thread is just for ML.

FWIW - Road favorites do pretty well in the NBA. 14-9-2 ATS on closing spreads 2 or more this year.

Thanks for the GL - Montanas, divol, younggun11 and Schrute.

BOL to all!
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[play ball]

DH is sitting out tonight, but line hasn't moved.

 

[play ball]

Winner last time out.

Sitting at plus 8.75 units.

YTD 1-1
3rd Play

ATL ML -414 over MIN - to win 0.5 unit.

Win = 9.25 units
Loss = 6.68 units

Min won at Chicago in OT, I like ATL to win at home. They have not loss snce opening loss to a pretty good DET team.


BOL
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[play ball]

Lost last game.

Sitting at plus 6.68 units.

YTD 1-2
4th Play

CLE ML -187 over DET - to win 1.5 units (risking 2.81)

Confidence Level = 4

Win = 8.18 units
Loss = 3.87 units

CLE lost 7 in a row ATS, they did have an 8 game SU win streak snapped in OT in their last game. All their games have been close lately - 3-6-4-4-6. They are on two days rest.
DET lost 4 in a row ATS, they had a miracle 4th Q at POR when RJ had 25 plus points...since then they were really tired and lost the next 4 on the WC trip. This is first game back on the EC. Drum has played really well, but had no help.

CLE did play a bunch of grinding teams - MIL/UTA/IND/NYK/PHI in the close games. Not sure DET is a grinding team.

I like CLE here to get back on track.

BOL
play ball

 

[play ball]

Lost Last game.

Sitting at plus 3.87 units.

YTD 1-3
5th play

OKC ML -445 - to win 0.5 units (risking 2.23)

Confidence Level = 3

Win = 4.37 units
Loss = 1.64 units

OKC has both KD and RW healthy and is really good on Sundays. I lean under because OKC doesn't allow many points.

BOL
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