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ontime23
Guest
Here wew go Pitt 13 point dogs.
Is the DE for USF playing tonight? I will gather info.
Is the DE for USF playing tonight? I will gather info.
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
AgainstThePublic
Master of the Pickle Tickle
USF finally played a complete game last week on the road at NCST. I realize NCST isn't a very good team but USF did cover the number on the road. At home USF is very tough. I haven't been all that impressed with USF this year. They have been squeeking by each week until last week. Selvie is more than likely out tonight which will be a big loss. USF won't lose this game but covering the number is the question. I wouldn't take Pitt +13.5 at all. USF plays very different at home. I would maybe play the total because you just don't know what you'll get from USF. On paper this game should be a blowout but this year they just lack that killer instinct. Maybe last week was a wakeup call that they need to blowout teams in order to move up the polls and impress voters.
hilldog11
Routinely spreads falsehoods via his avatar
I can see the under in this one. I thinks its going to be a low scoring grind. And as I said in my thread I'll take pitt +14 in this kind of game.
spooks
You Can't Make This Up
Interesting
Last season:
Pitt was 4-1 ATS as a dog & 1-3 ATS a favorite.
This season:
Pitt is 0-4 ATS and in all 4 games they were the favorite.
This is the first time this season Pitt is a dog....hmmm! I think there style of play is suited better to cover numbers as a dog because they're a type of team to grind it out, never take shots down field. And when they do get the lead, they're the type to play it safe and use clock management.
Last season:
Pitt was 4-1 ATS as a dog & 1-3 ATS a favorite.
This season:
Pitt is 0-4 ATS and in all 4 games they were the favorite.
This is the first time this season Pitt is a dog....hmmm! I think there style of play is suited better to cover numbers as a dog because they're a type of team to grind it out, never take shots down field. And when they do get the lead, they're the type to play it safe and use clock management.
Preliminary thoughts-
Do like the UNDER . Both solid defenses , the Pitt offense is medicore and USF is heavily dependent on Grothe and IMO to dependent on him.
Now last year this was a high scoring game but it really wasnt till late 3rd q when they game just fell apart . I dont recall everything exactly just do recall having bet teh 1st H under and game under thinking WTF in the 2nd H...I remember a game that went from grind out Big East style basketball to an Arena football shootout ....big plays , good field position , turnovers for TDS think Pitt had like 2 or 3 pick 6's .....have to look closely at that boxscore....
I would use the Iowa game as a reference point for how Pitt will look versus a good defense then weigh now its a road game vs the health and / or absence of some of USF key players who I think are gonna play from what I recall.....
What stuck out to me is Pitt is 0-4 ATS so far but really has played 3 weak opponents and not just failed to cover but struggled to win .....
Where USF had some ATS losses but of a different nature as they were more sloppy in some road games vs state rivals who see USF as the big dog (the sort of mid major FLA school who can compete with the big FLA programs) ....
So leaning towards USF here but cant overlook Pitt getting points ...only USF last week has covered a spread so tough to really imply value for teams here ...I wouldnt be against getting a teaser where you take USF below a TD to -6.5 or less and up the total and grab the under ....naturally a standard 6 pt teaser wont do that ...
Some work to do but lean UNDER 51 and somewhat lesser at the moment to USF -13.5 or -13.....
:cheers:Be Back
Do like the UNDER . Both solid defenses , the Pitt offense is medicore and USF is heavily dependent on Grothe and IMO to dependent on him.
Now last year this was a high scoring game but it really wasnt till late 3rd q when they game just fell apart . I dont recall everything exactly just do recall having bet teh 1st H under and game under thinking WTF in the 2nd H...I remember a game that went from grind out Big East style basketball to an Arena football shootout ....big plays , good field position , turnovers for TDS think Pitt had like 2 or 3 pick 6's .....have to look closely at that boxscore....
I would use the Iowa game as a reference point for how Pitt will look versus a good defense then weigh now its a road game vs the health and / or absence of some of USF key players who I think are gonna play from what I recall.....
What stuck out to me is Pitt is 0-4 ATS so far but really has played 3 weak opponents and not just failed to cover but struggled to win .....
Where USF had some ATS losses but of a different nature as they were more sloppy in some road games vs state rivals who see USF as the big dog (the sort of mid major FLA school who can compete with the big FLA programs) ....
So leaning towards USF here but cant overlook Pitt getting points ...only USF last week has covered a spread so tough to really imply value for teams here ...I wouldnt be against getting a teaser where you take USF below a TD to -6.5 or less and up the total and grab the under ....naturally a standard 6 pt teaser wont do that ...
Some work to do but lean UNDER 51 and somewhat lesser at the moment to USF -13.5 or -13.....
:cheers:Be Back
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
^agree nut; that's the way i lean on both
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
This is an interesting game. The reports that I've heard are saying Selvie DE and McClain DT are both going to miss the game with ankle injuries. Without the services of these two (Selvie is an All American), I think this total is too low. I'm seeing a 51 at my place. Shopping around for a 50 if I can get it. You guys on the under - get your bets in now so I can get this number down. 51 such a critical number on games 27-24, 41 -10, etc. 6 TD and 3 FG is a pretty common combo and I'd like to be on the right side of this number.
As for the side - I can't imagine laying this many points with South FLA. Last week is the first game all season where they would have covered a number this high. And they have lost ATS in 4 of their last five lined games dating to last year. This looks like a classic case of "no team is as good/bad as they looked the week before." S FLa blows out an NCST team on the road while Pitt squeaks out a win no cover at home against the shitty Orangemen. No way in hell I lay almost two TD tonight especially with the injuries to SFLA on defense. I may have to violate my rule about not ever betting on Wanny, no matter how good it looks. And this one looks very good to me.
I'll be on the OVER for a fairly large bet and probably will play the Panthers for a medium sized play.
As for the side - I can't imagine laying this many points with South FLA. Last week is the first game all season where they would have covered a number this high. And they have lost ATS in 4 of their last five lined games dating to last year. This looks like a classic case of "no team is as good/bad as they looked the week before." S FLa blows out an NCST team on the road while Pitt squeaks out a win no cover at home against the shitty Orangemen. No way in hell I lay almost two TD tonight especially with the injuries to SFLA on defense. I may have to violate my rule about not ever betting on Wanny, no matter how good it looks. And this one looks very good to me.
I'll be on the OVER for a fairly large bet and probably will play the Panthers for a medium sized play.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i agree with the general sentiment of the under ... but they combined for 44 points in the fourth quarter alone last year.
Also , south florida ran a hurry up offense for the first twenty minutes against ncstate last week before the heavy rain hit and coupled with a big lead they shut it down offensively a little bit.
throw in defensive injuries ..... i dont know.
Also , south florida ran a hurry up offense for the first twenty minutes against ncstate last week before the heavy rain hit and coupled with a big lead they shut it down offensively a little bit.
throw in defensive injuries ..... i dont know.
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
Boy, i don't know about the Under in this game; Pitt WR Kinder, after missing LY, appears to have developed a pretty good rapport with Stull and should only enhance the Panther offense. There are guys on both sides of the ball that are explosive.
As far as the side goes, Pitt is one of those teams that is a good underdog and a lousy favorite. Post #10 of this thread touches on that...but the way Wannstedt coaches really begets the underdog...he is a very conservative coach (and not a very good one as everyone here points out) that doesn't take many risks...not even calculated ones. He'll. generally punt from the other teams 40 and so forth...I really think think Pitt comes to play tonite but the HFA is big and the discrepancy at the QB position is even bigger...otherwise, these two teams are very evenly matched esp with the USF defensive line injuries. Tough game to bet in my opinion, but lean to the Panthers.
As far as the side goes, Pitt is one of those teams that is a good underdog and a lousy favorite. Post #10 of this thread touches on that...but the way Wannstedt coaches really begets the underdog...he is a very conservative coach (and not a very good one as everyone here points out) that doesn't take many risks...not even calculated ones. He'll. generally punt from the other teams 40 and so forth...I really think think Pitt comes to play tonite but the HFA is big and the discrepancy at the QB position is even bigger...otherwise, these two teams are very evenly matched esp with the USF defensive line injuries. Tough game to bet in my opinion, but lean to the Panthers.
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
There's the line move I wanted - 49.5 on the total. OVER> Big bet.
One other thing I wanted to point out is that I hear a lot of talk about mushmouth Wannschtead, and of course its justified, but I'm not a huge fan of Leavitt on the other side of the ball. 14 is way too many fucking points in this one. I'm on the Panthers too. Good luck
One other thing I wanted to point out is that I hear a lot of talk about mushmouth Wannschtead, and of course its justified, but I'm not a huge fan of Leavitt on the other side of the ball. 14 is way too many fucking points in this one. I'm on the Panthers too. Good luck
AgainstThePublic
Master of the Pickle Tickle
Tailing SCDOGGY. Agree with all your points. I was going to stay away but this USF team just doesn't put teams away. We'll see. On Pitt +14 and a small play on the over.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
agree with the whole post but especially the last sentence
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Looking at last year's games... Pitt knows to be competitive they need a low scoring affair. I expect them to really try to grind this one out... and with injuries to USF on the defense... that should equate to longer possessions and a better run game. Line moving down for a reason... over looks easy at first glance seeing what each team did last week. Pitt letting up a ton of offense to Cuse and USF hanging 41 on the road...
The grass slows the game down... tonight!
27-14 USF
The grass slows the game down... tonight!
27-14 USF
