PGA Championship Discussion

Rahm-

6th off the tee (305, 65%)
58th in approach
48th around the green
26th in putting
8th in Tee to green
4th overall

Has to be respected as someone that can win. BUt since restart he has 1 win and next best finish is 27th (with a missed cut as well) Game just hasn't been back and after last week, Im not playing him.
 
Simpson-

86th off the tee (297, 68%). Not long but not super short either and always in the fairway
7th in approach
50th around green
19th in putting
12th in tee to green
6th overall

Missed cut (2), 1, 8, 12 since restart. Had 2 blowup holes this past weekend or he would have been in contention (3 putting from 4 feet away)

FInished top 20 in all majors in 2018 and top 30 in all majors 2019 (t-5 at masters)

Not going to be on him heavy but someone I think can win.
 
FADE

Rory-

4th off the tee (313, 58%)
20th in approach
55th around green
98th in putting
5th tee to green
8th overall

I love backing Rory who I think is probably the 2nd best player but his game hasn't been right and his driver is too erratic. Can't bomb and recover (Bryson ball)

32, 41, 11, 32, 47 since restart. He's gonna have to beat me.
 
JT-

18th in driving (302, 59%)
1st in approach
15th around greens
86th in putting
1st tee to green
1st overall

Best player in the world right now. How much will erratic driver hurt him this week? Magician on approach/around greens. If I had to pick a winner, probably him but that driver worries me.
 
FADE-

Bryson-

1 off the tee
97th in approach
120th around green
6th in putting
9th in tee to green
2nd overall

If its a drive and putt contest, he wins everytime. I don't trust him this week with the narrow fairways and thick rough
 
Fineau-

36th off tee (308, 54%)
34th in approach
30th around green
95th in putting
10 tee to green
15th overall

Solid player, I just cant back him because of Sundays. 78th at Memorial. He's going to eventually win but I can't take him every week waiting for it to happen. The erratic driver worries me this week.
 
Buy-

Morikawa-

17 off the tee (296, 66%)
2nd in approach
119th around the green
164th putting
4th tee to green
14th overall

2, 64, cutt, 1, 48, 20 since restart. He's a solid driver that has some length. Great iron player. Can't putt. I dont ignore putter but those get hot and cold so it's the thing I look at least. I will be on him.
 
FADE-

Fitzpatrick

69th off tee (293, 65%)
93th approach
126 around green
2nd putting
80th tee to green
12th overall

Great putter. Bad ball striker. Back to back good weeks but I don't trust his ball striking at this course.
 
Longshot-

Varner III

21st off the tee
36th approach
69 around green
152 putting
15 tee to green
29 overall

Missed 2 straight cuts. Wont be heavily invested.
 
Longshot:

Scheffler

10th off tee
65th approach
106 around green
136 putting
23 tee to green
30 SG overall

After 3 straight missed cuts, coming in at 15 and 22
 
Longshot:

Connors

16th off tee
14th approach
183 around green
184 putting
17th tee to green
60 overall

Missed 1 cut since restart. Consistent finishes of 19, 21, 39, 22, 30
 
@Dollaz HV III gains but I think it’s due to his length. Missing fairways is going to really hurt this week.... redman hits fairways so really leaning hard on the rough being very punitive angle...
 
Dollaz said:
No real interest. Hasn't been playing well... I won't fade him but I think his price is too high for what I think is a longshot at winning.
Click to expand...

I’m mainly asking for DFS purposes. I’m stuck between Finau/Hatton/Woodland in Cash games for the last spot. But I’m thinking Finau is easily the safest play there with his recent form.
 
Yeah, I like Finau out of that group. I don't think he will win but I think he will play well enough to be of value.
 
Should I be surprised that no-one likes DJ ? After good finish last week.
5Dimes doesn't like him either. Head to head he's +115 v Brooks to +165 v JT
with Rory, Bryson, and Rahm in between those numbers.
 
bull said:
Should I be surprised that no-one likes DJ ? After good finish last week.
5Dimes doesn't like him either. Head to head he's +115 v Brooks to +165 v JT
with Rory, Bryson, and Rahm in between those numbers.
Click to expand...

He's just not playing well. Im not betting on guys hoping they find their game.
 
Dollaz said:
FADE

Rory-

4th off the tee (313, 58%)
20th in approach
55th around green
98th in putting
5th tee to green
8th overall

I love backing Rory who I think is probably the 2nd best player but his game hasn't been right and his driver is too erratic. Can't bomb and recover (Bryson ball)

32, 41, 11, 32, 47 since restart. He's gonna have to beat me.
Click to expand...
I agree about your concern with the erratic driver and the fact that they have really tightened this golf course up accentuates that fact. However Rory does like this course and won the Match Play here. His putting though is a concern.
 
Timh said:
I agree about your concern with the erratic driver and the fact that they have really tightened this golf course up accentuates that fact. However Rory does like this course and won the Match Play here. His putting though is a concern.
Click to expand...

I never count Rory out but he's just not playing well right now. This is the tight of course that he could do well on though. Need length off driver (and accuracy) and need to be able to hit the greens from 175 out.

Personally, I think its a positive that Rory has done well on the course in the past but I do think the different format is huge. In Match Play you are playing the opponent, where this one you are playing the course (and 100 other golfers). Different strategy/mindset.
 
Longshot- Erik van Rooyen-

48th off the tee (22nd in distance-307 yards, 56% accuracy)
46 in approach
78 around the green
163 putting
26 in tee to green
56 overall

Very long driver. DOn't love the inaccuracy but pretty solid ball striker. May go for top 20
 
Longshot-

Luke List

33rd off the tea (23rd in distance, 57% accuracy)
62 in approach
80 around the green
160 putting
32 in tee to green
65 overall
 
Buy- 40:1

Matsuyama
31st off the tee (305 yards, 60% accuracy)
3 in approach
14 around the green
199 putting
2 tee to green
22 overall

Obviously comes downt o putting with Matsuyama but incredible ball striker. Think the course plays well for him
 
Fade-

Brendon Todd
130 off the tee (281, 72%)
128 approach
82 around green
33 putting
129 tee to green
76 overall

Just doesn't hit the ball far enough and not good enough with irons.
 
Have y'all ever heard of Data Golf? I'm not 100% sure what it is, but they mentioned it on the NLU podcast this week, and according to them (Data Golf), the regular tour course most similar to Harding Park is Torrey Pines. Maybe success there can predict success this week? Just off the top of my head, that's Rahm, Day, Leishman, Tiger, Rose, and Snedeker as past winners. I'm sure there's others that play well there. CH3 I think has done well at Torrey, not sure if he's in this week's field
 
gps_3 said:
Have y'all ever heard of Data Golf? I'm not 100% sure what it is, but they mentioned it on the NLU podcast this week, and according to them (Data Golf), the regular tour course most similar to Harding Park is Torrey Pines. Maybe success there can predict success this week? Just off the top of my head, that's Rahm, Day, Leishman, Tiger, Rose, and Snedeker as past winners. I'm sure there's others that play well there. CH3 I think has done well at Torrey, not sure if he's in this week's field
Click to expand...
Love this site


Data Golf

Data Golf represents the intersection of applied statistics, data visualization, web development, and, of course, golf. The goal is to provide unique perspectives on the game that are both accessible to the casual fan and insightful for dedicated golfers.
datagolf.com datagolf.com


I use their free Strokes Gained chart a lot during tournaments for H2H round matchups and daily DFS. Updates real time. Their premium model looks pretty awesome just haven't had time to purchase and really dig in.
 

*** PGA Championship Contest *** CASH Prize!

We will be using a Modified Stableford Scoring System for this contest. Here is what you will do: Pick 6 golfers total. At the end of the tournament, we will use the top 4 scores you have of your 6 golfers for the week. This is whether they make the cut(s) or not. I do not know if that will...
cappingthegame.com cappingthegame.com
 
I went a bit more action than I usually do, but I'm bored, so here goes:

To Win:
Xander 1800
Webb 2400
Fleetwood 3500
Day 3000

Top 10:
Day 350
Fleetwood 375
Rose 500
Leishman 650

Top 20:
Xander -110
Day 165
Fitzpatrick 175
Fleetwood 175
Finau 175
Adam Scott 225
Leishman 300
Casey 350
Willett 500
Poston 800

Matchups:
Berger -115 vs Rickie
Willett +105 vs Phil

If X, Day and Fleetwood play well, should be a good weekend for me
 
gps_3 said:
I went a bit more action than I usually do, but I'm bored, so here goes:

To Win:
Xander 1800
Webb 2400
Fleetwood 3500
Day 3000

Top 10:
Day 350
Fleetwood 375
Rose 500
Leishman 650

Top 20:
Xander -110
Day 165
Fitzpatrick 175
Fleetwood 175
Finau 175
Adam Scott 225
Leishman 300
Casey 350
Willett 500
Poston 800

Matchups:
Berger -115 vs Rickie
Willett +105 vs Phil

If X, Day and Fleetwood play well, should be a good weekend for me
Click to expand...
gps_3 said:
I went a bit more action than I usually do, but I'm bored, so here goes:

To Win:
Xander 1800
Webb 2400
Fleetwood 3500
Day 3000

Top 10:
Day 350
Fleetwood 375
Rose 500
Leishman 650

Top 20:
Xander -110
Day 165
Fitzpatrick 175
Fleetwood 175
Finau 175
Adam Scott 225
Leishman 300
Casey 350
Willett 500
Poston 800

Matchups:
Berger -115 vs Rickie
Willett +105 vs Phil

If X, Day and Fleetwood play well, should be a good weekend for me
Click to expand...


Mostly agree. The only one I really disagree with is Fitzpatrick. Im gonna make him beat me.

Rickey is my favorite golfer but I had to take Berger.
 
gps_3 said:
I went a bit more action than I usually do, but I'm bored, so here goes:

To Win:
Xander 1800
Webb 2400
Fleetwood 3500
Day 3000

Top 10:
Day 350
Fleetwood 375
Rose 500
Leishman 650

Top 20:
Xander -110
Day 165
Fitzpatrick 175
Fleetwood 175
Finau 175
Adam Scott 225
Leishman 300
Casey 350
Willett 500
Poston 800

Matchups:
Berger -115 vs Rickie
Willett +105 vs Phil

If X, Day and Fleetwood play well, should be a good weekend for me
Click to expand...
GL this week. Only real disagreement is Webb....I read he does a lot better on Bermuda courses and I think his struggles off the tee hurt him a bit here.
 
aplous said:
GL this week. Only real disagreement is Webb....I read he does a lot better on Bermuda courses and I think his struggles off the tee hurt him a bit here.
Click to expand...

It's a worry for sure. Hoping for some good vibes from Olympic here
 
aplous said:
GL this week. Only real disagreement is Webb....I read he does a lot better on Bermuda courses and I think his struggles off the tee hurt him a bit here.
Click to expand...

The bermuda is a concern for sure. But I don't think Webb off the tee is an issue. Not really short (avg 297), obviously not super long; more averagish. 19th in accuracy at 68%.

Im gonna try to do a deep dive today into performance on long par 4/who hits long irons well.
 
He's around 85th in strokes gained off the tee. Not awful, just a factor I guess. Tough to pick apart any of these guys when making my guesses for the week.
 
aplous said:
He's around 85th in strokes gained off the tee. Not awful, just a factor I guess. Tough to pick apart any of these guys when making my guesses for the week.
Click to expand...


Yeah, its certainly the weakest part of his game. And if he doesn't play well, I would guess its because of that. He's such a good iron player and accurate off the tee so I'll be curious to see.
 
Just a quick google search; Par 4 efficiency 400-450 yards year to date. Average score: (lines up with the better ball strikers)

Castro
Byrd
Cantlay
Kuchar
Berger
Long
Hatton
Schauffele
Grace
Scheffler
Garnett
Matsuama
Byrson

www.pgatour.com

Par 4 Efficiency 400-450 yards | PGA TOUR Stats

Strokes Gained | Scoring Overall | Under Par Scoring | Over Par Scoring | Scoring by Round | Par 3,4,5 Scoring | Front 9 Scoring | Back 9 Scoring | Early Scoring | Late Scoring | Scoring Off the 1st Tee | Scoring Off the 10th Tee | Efficiency Scoring
www.pgatour.com
 
This course is gonna play super long. The guys were saying last night that some short irons may be 10 yards shorter than last week. There are going to be a lot of mid to long irons hit, which a lot of guys hardly ever hit (Always Driver/wedge)

It does sound like Bryson and some of the bombers are gonna just hit driver as far as they can. I thought the rough may deter them, but it doesn't seem like thats the case.
 
Dollaz said:
This course is gonna play super long. The guys were saying last night that some short irons may be 10 yards shorter than last week. There are going to be a lot of mid to long irons hit, which a lot of guys hardly ever hit (Always Driver/wedge)

It does sound like Bryson and some of the bombers are gonna just hit driver as far as they can. I thought the rough may deter them, but it doesn't seem like thats the case.
Click to expand...

If the fairways are super tight like Bethpage was last year, then everyone is going to be in the rough. Definitely favors the guys hitting 9 or PW out of it than the guys hitting 6 iron. I don't think it will be quite as narrow as Bethpage, but will be a factor.
 
My plays so far.

Xander to Win +1710* .5*
Xander Top 20 -110 .5*

Tournament Matchups
Berger -120 vs. Fowler .5*
Berger -110 vs. Reed .5*
Fleetwood +100 vs. Fitzpatrick .5*
Cantlay -115 vs. Simpson .5*
Parlay Xander vs. Woods/Fleetwood vs. Fitzpatrick +206 .5*

GL fellas, terrific thread here for the tournament. I'm jacked.
 
Timh said:
My plays so far.

Xander to Win +1710* .5*
Xander Top 20 -110 .5*

Tournament Matchups
Berger -120 vs. Fowler .5*
Berger -110 vs. Reed .5*
Fleetwood +100 vs. Fitzpatrick .5*
Cantlay -115 vs. Simpson .5*
Parlay Xander vs. Woods/Fleetwood vs. Fitzpatrick +206 .5*

GL fellas, terrific thread here for the tournament. I'm jacked.
Click to expand...
Yup, outstanding thread so far.

GL Timmy.
 
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