PaintCrew 2023 Golf
- Thread starter PaintCrew
- Start date
I lied....back to blowing $ on Riley but this should be a great fit for him if the driver form he found in New Orleans continues here...honestly if it does he'll contend with average putting
0.2* Riley 80-1 (1/5 1-8 E/W) (edit....had a typo here originally. Total Riley investment is 1 full unit between the 3 bets)
0.6* Riley T20 +320
0.2* Riley 80-1 (1/5 1-8 E/W) (edit....had a typo here originally. Total Riley investment is 1 full unit between the 3 bets)
0.6* Riley T20 +320
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Well....that was a quick death at least. I think my point was likely still accurate but we'll never know
Stripe show off the tee through the first 8 but over 4 strokes lost putting in 8 holes is a new feat that I didn't expect...lol
Was looking possible/likely for a huge week early today but Hovland collapses to blow the Finau matchup and X can't quite get there. Clark a worthy winner obviously....that was pretty damn impressive all 4 days
Outrights: -3.00 (Thanks Riley for the 7+ strokes lost on the greens....)
H2Hs: 3-1 +2.60
Wells Fargo: -0.4
Overall: +8.63
Byron Nelson: Was very very close to just staying way down the board but am giving Tom Kim one more shot
0.8* Tom Kim 16-1
0.4* Seamus 35-1
0.3* Riley 45-1 - I mean i know i should put the guy on the bench after the worst putting effort by any PGA player in years but I'll never punish a guy for a bad week on the greens
0.25* Spaun 55-1
Byron Nelson: Was very very close to just staying way down the board but am giving Tom Kim one more shot
0.8* Tom Kim 16-1
0.4* Seamus 35-1
0.3* Riley 45-1 - I mean i know i should put the guy on the bench after the worst putting effort by any PGA player in years but I'll never punish a guy for a bad week on the greens
0.25* Spaun 55-1
Keeping it short and sweet. Think it's pretty limited on number of guys who can actually win this so not going far down the board for outrights and I love Fitzy this week so just stacking him every way possible (will add matchups as well)
PGA
1* Rahm +800 - Played after the masters
1* Finau +2200
1* Fitzy +2800
T5
0.5* Fitzy +550
T10
0.5* Fitzy +250
T20
2* Fitzy +105
1.5* Finau -105
1* Woodland +250
PGA
1* Rahm +800 - Played after the masters
1* Finau +2200
1* Fitzy +2800
T5
0.5* Fitzy +550
T10
0.5* Fitzy +250
T20
2* Fitzy +105
1.5* Finau -105
1* Woodland +250
BOL has Fitzy +165 for T20. Still good to go? Pretty big difference from you 105 and just want to make sure nothing there. Will tail this one if not. thanks
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
Dead heat rules likely but PC can confirm. MGM has Fitz at $120, T20 but they pay ties in full. Higher odds are enticing but feels like a total rip-off when your bet hits, only to be paid per dead heat rules.
thanks. Don't bet much golf - what is dead heat rules? assume it has something to do with paying less when a bunch are all tied? thanks
Yep big big difference in dead heat rules. My T5/T10/T20's are no dead heat with my local...sometimes my golf numbers can be a bit worse though in general (sometimes better)
I would assume at +165 BOL definitely has dead heat rules (my other out I'm liquid at is +145 with Bet365 so +165 is pretty darn good) where the payout would be something like your original investment + winnings / number of players tied so with a T20 at those type of odds in the case of a tie you'll get chopped down quite a bit.
I'd play it though with dead heat at anything +125 or better. I'm kind of ride or die with Fitzy this week and find it hard to believe that he's not better than 50/50 to be 1 shot better than T20.
I would assume at +165 BOL definitely has dead heat rules (my other out I'm liquid at is +145 with Bet365 so +165 is pretty darn good) where the payout would be something like your original investment + winnings / number of players tied so with a T20 at those type of odds in the case of a tie you'll get chopped down quite a bit.
I'd play it though with dead heat at anything +125 or better. I'm kind of ride or die with Fitzy this week and find it hard to believe that he's not better than 50/50 to be 1 shot better than T20.
Thanks. Yeah ive seen this discussed a few times and understand. Im sure it is dead heat but will give it a go anyway. BOL IMO is horrible in making their rules clear on the site. Thanks and gl
I think it's the right type of setup for him to contend if he's ever going to do it again
FRL
0.25* Fleetwood 50-1
A pile of full tourney H2Hs
2* Walker vs Lefty -123
2* Fitzy vs Hovland -105
1* X -1.5 vs JT -120
1* Cantlay vs JT -110
1* IM -1.5 vs Smith -115
1* Fleetwood vs Burns -120
1* Scott vs Reed -105
1* Henley vs Mito -127
1* Taylor vs HV3 +125
Maybe some R1 matchups yet but if not good luck y’all
0.25* Fleetwood 50-1
A pile of full tourney H2Hs
2* Walker vs Lefty -123
2* Fitzy vs Hovland -105
1* X -1.5 vs JT -120
1* Cantlay vs JT -110
1* IM -1.5 vs Smith -115
1* Fleetwood vs Burns -120
1* Scott vs Reed -105
1* Henley vs Mito -127
1* Taylor vs HV3 +125
Maybe some R1 matchups yet but if not good luck y’all
Nice recovery from Fleetwood to at least cash. Put 100 to win 225 and they paid 135 I think. sucks but I'll take it. Also, put 2u on Brooks last night at +130. thought Scheffler and Rahm wouldn't be there (nice comeback by Scottie) and I'll take Koepka over Victor and that other guy any day. I hate LIV but still think Koepka is best in world when healthy. Only played Fitz and Fleetwood and ended up $5 after it all LOL.
Bloodbath. Got a lot of bad math to do. Tip of the cap obviously to Brooks...I didn't like what I saw at all Sunday at Augusta and felt he lost his alpha edge especially with how he spoke after the event but wow I was way off. I knew the Brooks # was way off one way or another but couldn't get there around 20-1....too much adjustment was my thinking...whoops.
Master class type stuff to get to -9 at Oak Hill including a 66 on Saturday on a day that some of the best in the world were struggling to break 76.
The only saving grace this week was Beefcake not winning....i don't think I could've handled that one after carrying the beefcake torch for so long...lol
Master class type stuff to get to -9 at Oak Hill including a 66 on Saturday on a day that some of the best in the world were struggling to break 76.
The only saving grace this week was Beefcake not winning....i don't think I could've handled that one after carrying the beefcake torch for so long...lol
PGA:
Outrights/FRL: -3.75
Exotics: -3.35
Matchups: -6.03
Overall: -6.25
Still digesting it and will learn from it. What looks like the worst capped tourney potentially of the last few seasons. Fitz losing SG both OTT and in approach at this course with this field on Thursday is not one I'll likely ever really figure out. Golf giveth....and golf taketh
Outrights/FRL: -3.75
Exotics: -3.35
Matchups: -6.03
Overall: -6.25
Still digesting it and will learn from it. What looks like the worst capped tourney potentially of the last few seasons. Fitz losing SG both OTT and in approach at this course with this field on Thursday is not one I'll likely ever really figure out. Golf giveth....and golf taketh
Saudi DC:
1* Beefcake 20-1 - Yep i'm back.....feel fortunate (hopefully) that he didn't do more this week and Brooks did peak Brooks things. He looks comfortable and had distance dialed in pretty good with the wedges (his most common downfall other than the putter at augusta)...no choice but to fire and see if he's found "it" especially at this price
1* Beefcake 20-1 - Yep i'm back.....feel fortunate (hopefully) that he didn't do more this week and Brooks did peak Brooks things. He looks comfortable and had distance dialed in pretty good with the wedges (his most common downfall other than the putter at augusta)...no choice but to fire and see if he's found "it" especially at this price
Pretty disappointing Sunday...Harris elite ball striking for 3 days and then just completely lost it Sunday. Walked off the 1st green at -10 in an event that -8 ends up getting you to a playoff...
Colonial: -1.5
Overall: -8.75
Colonial: -1.5
Saudi DC: -1 (Beefcake at least was sniffing around Sunday it looks like but just didn't make a charge)
Overall: -8.75
I think I'll join on those first two...
aplous
Donkey Hater
Like all 3!
Deki just didn't have it on the weekend...thought he was going to be there
Memorial: -1.8
Overall: -10.55
Just got back in town from a trip with the full fam back home and kind of purposely took a week off this week. Potentially will get involved with a dart or 2 after round one of the Saudi PGA Canadian open but mainly moving on to focus on LA next week.
Memorial: -1.8
Overall: -10.55
Just got back in town from a trip with the full fam back home and kind of purposely took a week off this week. Potentially will get involved with a dart or 2 after round one of the Saudi PGA Canadian open but mainly moving on to focus on LA next week.
RBC Canada: -0.25 - Thankful that Fleetwood didn't get home as he would've been my top pre-tourney pick and would've kicked myself a bit...
Overall: -10.80
US Open week. Should have the full outright card in by this afternoon.
Carrying one future with me from quite a while back and if I didn't have it I'd still play him at the current prices (tip of the cap to @B.A.R. for pointing it out)
1* Homa 50-1
Overall: -10.80
US Open week. Should have the full outright card in by this afternoon.
Carrying one future with me from quite a while back and if I didn't have it I'd still play him at the current prices (tip of the cap to @B.A.R. for pointing it out)
1* Homa 50-1
Yessir!
US Open full card to get it in one place:
US Open
1* Homa 50-1
0.5* Saudi Aussie Mullet 25-1
0.5* Fitzy 28-1
0.25* Clark 60-1
Top Euro
0.25* Franke Mols 70-1
FRL
0.25* Smith 22-1
0.25* Rickie 40-1
T5
0.25* T5 Theegala 20-1
T10
0.5* Smith +300
0.5* Fitzy +275
T20
1.5* Smith +145
1.5* Fitzy +130
H2Hs
1.5* DJ -110 vs JT
1.5* Finau -138 vs JT
1.5* Scottie -1.5 -150 vs Brooks
1* Scottie -1.5 -125 vs Rory
1* X -1.5 +112 vs Hovland
1* Cantlay -1.5 +108 vs Hovland
1.5* Smith +110 vs Morikawa
1* Spieth -1.5 +112 vs Morikawa
1* Sergio +115 vs Davis
1* Kitayama -1.5 -148 vs Lefty
1* Frankie Mols +115 vs Padraig
1* Fatty Patty -105 vs Beefcake
US Open
1* Homa 50-1
0.5* Saudi Aussie Mullet 25-1
0.5* Fitzy 28-1
0.25* Clark 60-1
Top Euro
0.25* Franke Mols 70-1
FRL
0.25* Smith 22-1
0.25* Rickie 40-1
T5
0.25* T5 Theegala 20-1
T10
0.5* Smith +300
0.5* Fitzy +275
T20
1.5* Smith +145
1.5* Fitzy +130
H2Hs
1.5* DJ -110 vs JT
1.5* Finau -138 vs JT
1.5* Scottie -1.5 -150 vs Brooks
1* Scottie -1.5 -125 vs Rory
1* X -1.5 +112 vs Hovland
1* Cantlay -1.5 +108 vs Hovland
1.5* Smith +110 vs Morikawa
1* Spieth -1.5 +112 vs Morikawa
1* Sergio +115 vs Davis
1* Kitayama -1.5 -148 vs Lefty
1* Frankie Mols +115 vs Padraig
1* Fatty Patty -105 vs Beefcake
Hopefully at least get a chopped FRL....can't believe X ran him down
Didn’t expect to have to dodge 4 guys in the afternoon but thankful to get Rickie home at 20-1
+4.75 on the FRL
Gotta think the USGA does all they can to protect this place tomorrow
Thank you!
I guess I should be thankful with the push on DJ even the snowman…
R3 all1*
Fitz-110 vs Morikawa
Smith -115 vs Finau
Scottie -125 vs Rory
DJ +117 vs X
