PaintCrew 2023 Golf

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PaintCrew

Has Nicer Hair Than Matt Haarms
2022 Season Overall: +87.635

Nibbling on some between season stuff and trying out some true E/W options now that Bet365 is available in Colorado

BMW PGA DP and Saudi Defectors Invitational
0.25* BobbyMac 66-1
0.25* Frankie Mols 66-1
0.25* Pepperell 75-1

Each of them 1/5 1-8 E/W with a total of 0.25* invested for each wager (0.125* on each split)

BMW PGA & Saudi Defectors Invitational: -0.75
Fortinet: -1.45
Saudi Chicago: -0.5
Presidents Cup: -0.8
Sanderson Farms: -3.65
Shriners: -2.1
Open de Spana: +1.68 - Hell of an effort from Min Woo with the full place. He hung in there all 4 days with Rahmbo until the back side on Sunday. Rahm just too good.
Saudi Bangkok: -0.5 - I might stop wasting my $ on this garbage. Haven't really found a good way to cap it.
ZoZo: -5.44

Overall: -13.01
 
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BMW PGA & Saudi Defectors Invitational
-0.75

Frankie lets me down per normal falling 1 shot out of the places which would've turned the entire thing profitable. Pepperell and Bobby Mac who knows what would've happened with another round.... Sure would've been nice to go a full 72 and not have it LIV style
 
A few last minute darts

Fortinet
0.5* Riley 33-1
0.5* Hoge 33-1
0.25* Hardy 70-1 (e/w 1-8)
0.2* Hodges 90-1 (e/w 1-8)
 
Big ol' whiff for Fortinet. Riley is going to the bench for a while until he shows form with the driver. Tricky part is the guy somehow lost 6 shots with the putter in 2 rounds. That will come around in a hurry one week. Just will be watching and hoping his number drifts and will see if I can time getting back in before he gets the first W.

Fortinet: -1.45
Saudi Chicago: -0.5

Only highlight for the Saudi tour this week looks like was this....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571600915161059328
 
aplous said:
Headed to Quail Hollow Thursday/Friday....look forward to your thoughts on matches
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Hell yeah man that's awesome for sure i'll be looking at things. Wish I would've got in early on the US in the -300s or so before LIV raided the international team but i was asleep at the wheel.

Definitely will be playing head to heads each day and probably will find a dart at top point getter or 2
 
PaintCrew said:
Hell yeah man that's awesome for sure i'll be looking at things. Wish I would've got in early on the US in the -300s or so before LIV raided the international team but i was asleep at the wheel.

Definitely will be playing head to heads each day and probably will find a dart at top point getter or 2
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Have 340 small..

I wanted more but that was in August so wasn't sure who could leave our side.

I've added twice since then at bigger numbers.

Ride or collide.
 
Top overall scorer

1* Scottie +700

Best player on the planet and the best match play player on the planet by a wide margin. If Trevor doesn't send him out there 4 times I'll be pissed.

I'd think he and his buddy (and my guy as well) Burns will go out there 3 times and would think with a 2-0-1 or 3-0 that Scottie would get paired with one of the (other 4) for his 4th go at it as well.

Obviously this could very well come down to a crap shoot on Sunday singles amongst guys off the most common pairings for the USA if they roll through their matches and this is forcing things maybe slightly but I just love Scottie here this week and in any type of match play setting.

Other top teams that will likely have a go at top point scorer:
X/Cantlay
Spieth/JT
 
Presidents Cup

Got one i'm pretty comfortable taking a dart at with my guy Pendrith. A lot depends on their first showing out on Thursday but I think he and Conners will make a great pairing and fit this place pretty well. Downside is the potential of facing one of the top 2 teams of the US each time out but you never know there....

I don't really like any of the other possible international pairings and could see these guys going out 3 times before singles. If that happens there is a very reasonable chance to me that Connors and Pendrith are in the mix with a win on Sunday to be top international scorer. Worth the price imo.

Top International Scorer: 0.5* Pendrith 12-1

Also fun note I didn't know about until this week. They are rerouting the green mile to holes 13-15 to force those holes into play more often (Normally 16-18 at Quail Hollow).

In general I expect a US rout (how can you not) and might even join @B.A.R. in scooping up another couple units at -700 as I think it's still cheap. Just not sure what type of risk I want out there.
 
I'm hesitant to post this as I really don't advise folks to follow (just in case anyone is) but I post what comes out of my accounts as close as I absolutely can so I'll put it out there. This also comes with a big caveat that i'm sitting with a healthy bit of golf house $ from last season so my risk tolerance is pretty high at the moment.

That being said I think there is still some small meat on the bone even at the current odds.

2.5* USA -700

So here's the deal. Anything is possible and can/will/has happened. If the unexpected happens here i'll tip my cap and take my 17.5 unit loss and not be happy about it. However you've got a situation that there is legitimate possibility that the USA is a favorite (even if small in many matches) in all 30 matches across 4 days. The only matchups I see a possible International fav (and it would be small) would be with some big time rotation shuffling by either said for sunday singles if someone like Deki would face a Cam Young (even then it's damn near even).

I would think 3 of the 4 fourball matchups (X/Cantlay, Scottie/Burns, JT/Spieth against anyone....) the USA will be pushing upwards of -200 regardless of the matchup. Foursomes i'd still think will be north of -150 for those 3 and the other will still be a decent USA fav regardless.

That probably gets you about 12 matchups north of -150 (and probably a number closer to -200) out of 18 before Sunday even gets here. Looking head to head i'd think on Sunday you probably have 6 more USA matchups -150 or more and just about all at least a small favorite.

International team needs basically 15 upsets out of 30 to beat me and a lot of those probably in the 40-45% range. I haven't ran all the math but it's hard to see this not coming home more than 1 out of 20 so I'm taking the risk and having some fun with it.

God speed either way but I'll join @B.A.R. and ride and collide
 
Trevor already pulled a fast one one me.....

Matchups are out:

Very surprised that he paired up Pendrith with Mito but I don't absolutely "hate" it. Probably puts a bit less value on Pendrith though and any chance of that 12-1 coming home is probably dependent on him playing well tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572681910333378560
 
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aplous said:
GL! Like Scottie also, Tom Kim over 2 points is my favorite international play.
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Have a blast out there! My other thought is if you like Tom Kim over 2 it feels like it has to be worth a nibble at +700 or so for top International to go with it.

You doing first tee or roaming around? Always have had the Ryder Cup on the bucket list but this would something I'd love a shot to be at as well some year.
 
Evidently should've played Connors/IM right when it came out last night. It's moved so much now I almost lean the other way with JT & Spieth at damn near even money but no thanks either way.

I'll list what I think in order of what I think are the international's best chances of picking up points today:

Connors/IM - No brainer with 2 elite ball strikers and plenty of length for this place. Spieth & JT I'd think will have to do a bit more scrambling and could cost them in alt-shot. I'd think this should be a very competitive match pushing past the green mile. I'll call it a push and give a 1/2 point each.
Lee/Kim - Big time drop off regardless of the other matchups from that first one as the USA has dramatic advantages in every other match. However, I do think there's a bit of a risk in the Morikawa/Young matchup in a format like this. CYoung is a player i love but I've seen him stub chips/putts in big time moments quite a few times. He himself always recovers nicely from them but it's a different animal sticking another player with it. Wish the price was just a bit higher and I might nibble but not enough meat on the bone at the +136/140 i see out there. I don't really trust the international team here either though so I've got to lean towards the USA and the firepower of Young off the tee with Morikawas elite irons. US wins it 3&1
Mito/Pendrith - Worried slightly about the moment for these 2 but there's definitely a path here where they play loose and free golf. They should complement each other nicely with Pendrith off the tee (even if a bit wild with the trimmed down rough) and Mito's elite irons. Of course they face a big time task against Homa/Finau but I'm still not fully sold on Max in a format like this until I see it and a quick turn around after the win in Napa. Tempted at +150 or more on the dog here...still might grab a little but I'm already invested in Pendrith. Have to give the nod to the US though even if I still might take a nibble on Mito/Pendrith....let's call it 2&1.
Deki/Scott - Simply put I think this line is short. X and Cantlay are killers in this format and both are in great form. Trevor had to put his vets out there to give it ago in match #1 but I think this is a mismatch. Ends in the green mile....let's call it 4&3.
Davis/SiWoo - Strange pairing but not like the international team has a lot of options. Scottie and Burns I expect to win every time they go out there and this is about as lopsided of a match as you could find. I think the line is still short but it is 18 holes of alt-shot....lot of variance but this reasonably could be -250 or more IMO. US wins 5&4.

I guess that puts it at 4.5-0.5 but I think there's a very reasonable chance that international picks up 1 of those top 3 matches up there and halves another. I'll call it USA 3.5-1.5 after day 1.

Not sure how much I'll post the rest of the weekend...heading up for a weekend getaway in the mountains without the kids but the wife and I will be watching plenty presidents cup and football throughout.

Keeping it simple even if square and just playing what I think are a little bit short.
1* X/Cantlay -160
1* Scottie/Burns -180

I'll lay off on the others but don't mind nibbles on the 2 bigger remaining dogs in the other matchups.

Enjoy ya'll
 
Always enjoy the read, insight and plays. Thought I read elsewhere that you reside in the 303. I’m in for a round of golf, if you’re ever in need to fill a spot.
 
PaintCrew said:
Have a blast out there! My other thought is if you like Tom Kim over 2 it feels like it has to be worth a nibble at +700 or so for top International to go with it.

You doing first tee or roaming around? Always have had the Ryder Cup on the bucket list but this would something I'd love a shot to be at as well some year.
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Got a unit on Tom +800 and half on Scott +800. Scheff +650 on US side.

Some kind of corporate hospitality tent, not sure where we’ll be setup. Probably get the lay of the land then try to walk with a group to see the course.
 
laopadak said:
Always enjoy the read, insight and plays. Thought I read elsewhere that you reside in the 303. I’m in for a round of golf, if you’re ever in need to fill a spot.
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Really appreciate that @laopadak . And yep I live and work in the DTC area. I'm hoping in the next year or 2 that the boys being old enough I'll be on the links more...it's been way too slim the past few years. For sure that would be cool to link up!
 
I’m on the north side of Denver, have two younger boys myself so understand the time constraints. No obligation, keep me in mind and I’m always in for a round of golf. My excuse to the wife is, a customer reached out to play, so business first. Works everytime!
 
laopadak said:
I’m on the north side of Denver, have two younger boys myself so understand the time constraints. No obligation, keep me in mind and I’m always in for a round of golf. My excuse to the wife is, a customer reached out to play, so business first. Works everytime!
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Haha....yeah that's definitely a good way to go!
 
No time but quite the turn for the Scottie match yesterday but I’ll run it back anyway

And Pendrith gets the ideal pairing and one I think is a complete tossup as best if not an edge to international

1.5* Scottie/Burns -180
1.5* Pendrith/Connors +109
 
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Screw it I think this is a little too much and will ride a little Davis momentum against Spieth

1* Scott/Davis +146
 
I don't care what anyone says that Presidents Cup was a joy to watch. Really impressed by the youngsters on the international sqaud.

My top point scorers somehow manage to not win a match....whoops

Win 2.5 on the outright

lose 1.5 on the top scorers
lose 2.8 on matchups

Down 1.8 overall. Disappointing but is what it is. A few matches going to the 18th that easily could've flipped in a very positive direction
 
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Sanderson Farms:

2 weeks ago i was putting Riley in time out. Now with a lot of positive vibes and forgetting about this being his home event with a bad field and a perfect course setup for him....i'm keeping it simple one last time for a while this week and not doing much capping.

The other play I'm really high on for this season. A healthy Harris I expect to have a really nice bounceback this season and have an inkling you aren't going to get him at the 40's anymore after this.... I'll take the 2 big shots and call it done this week. Good luck.

1* Riley +40-1
1* English 40-1
 
Taking a bit of a small stand this week. Can't say i recommend it but I think one or both of these boys steps up this week:

Riley
T5 .5* +800
T10 .5* +375
T20 .5* +170

English
T5 .5* +800
T10 .5* +400
T20 .5* +200

Good luck ya'll
 
English evidently mailed it in after 1 water ball on hole #3 Thursday....

Riley just not accurate enough off the tee this week and missed a host of short ones that would've put him right in the mix vs the underwhelming T18 he finished at....onward

Sanderson Farms: -3.65
 
Shriners

Just a couple to start. Will likely add a couple down the board as well.

0.6* Montgomery 33-1
0.5* Davis 40-1
 
Total of .50 on each (.25 on each bet of the each way)
100-1 English (1/5 1-8) E/W
110-1 Higgo (1/5 1-8) E/W

That will likely do it...good luck ya'll
 
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Open de Espana - Mainly playing due to the boost from 30 to 50-1 (at Bet365) but was tempted to play him in the 30's anyway so taking it

Total of .25 risk
0.125* Min Woo Lee 50-1 (1/4 1-5) E/W
 
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And because I don't like money....this new track seems to be absolutely massive in length with giant fairways

Saudi Bangkok
0.5* Saudi Beefcake 20-1
 
Shriners -2.1 - Not an awful showing but none of my 3 that made it to the weekend really contended. It was obviously a Tom Kim and Cantlay putting clinic. I will say I saw enough of Harris to likely keep betting him if they keep putting out numbers like this. He's right there....

Open de Spana - +1.68 - Hell of an effort from Min Woo with the full place. He hung in there all 4 days with Rahmbo until the back side on Sunday. Rahm just too good.

Saudi Bangkok - 0.5 - I might stop wasting my $ on this garbage. Haven't really found a good way to cap it.
 
Kind of got lazy this week but also had a couple numbers move away

Munoz/Mito/Kitayama i damn near played but just going to bump up these key darts this week

add 0.5* to both making final card:

1* Si Woo 30-1
0.8* Riley 50-1
 
I'm already drawing dead more than likely....so i'm going to have a little fun but do feel this is mispriced. This dude is legit and will win at a high level...is it too early? Obviously probably yes but the top of the board here is lacking any type of class so I'm taking a nibble at this number

0.5* Keita Nakajima 40-1

Also capped H2H's so played a couple

1* Si Woo -139 vs Smalley
1* Morikawa -125 vs Hov
 
Got caught up on math in the 1st post along with here. Leaking oil a bit. Time to get one.

BMW PGA & Saudi Defectors Invitational: -0.75
Fortinet: -1.45
Saudi Chicago: -0.5
Presidents Cup: -0.8
Sanderson Farms: -3.65
Shriners: -2.1
Open de Spana: +1.68 - Hell of an effort from Min Woo with the full place. He hung in there all 4 days with Rahmbo until the back side on Sunday. Rahm just too good.
Saudi Bangkok: -0.5 - I might stop wasting my $ on this garbage. Haven't really found a good way to cap it.
ZoZo: -5.44
CJ CUP: -1.15
Bermuda: -1.25


Overall: -15.41
 
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CJ Cup - Top of this board wasn't even a debate for me here. Give me Burnsy all day everyday at this number here.
0.5* Burns 28-1
0.25* Day 66-1
0.2 E/W 1/5 8 places (total 0.4) English 90-1
0.125 E/W 1/5 8 places (total 0.25) Riley 90-1 (So i've wasted a nice chunk at this point being stubborn but now that prices have drifted near triple digits I'll keep firing...ride or collide)
 
FYI I enjoy pain and saw Riley drifted to 125-1 after things got going and snagged another 0.25 of him (E/W)

0.125 E/W 1/4 5 Places Riley 125-1
 
At least not much damage done with Day getting a unit back on the matchup. Will probably start getting matchups going again as they helped more than hurt last season but just haven't had time.

CJ CUP: -1.15
 
Almost went with Rai at the top vs Long at 45 just to keep it all to 3 letters or less last names...saving time this week ;)
 
Way behind this week...ended up playing my darts live as R1 kicked off....

I'll list current #'s (Bet365 that are available as of now) and track those but also list what i got them at if different

All E/W 1/4 (1-5)
0.25 Riley 50-1 (I got 66)
0.125 Sigg 50-1 (i got 55)
0.125 Hodges 100-1
0.125 Hardy 80-1
0.125 Higgo 125-1
 
Getting 2023 math finally up to date. The grind got me last year going end to end 24/7 for 52 weeks and decided to pause until things picked back up or i felt right about it. That time is now and will plan to take the end of year break again during football next year.

BMW PGA & Saudi Defectors Invitational: -0.75
Fortinet: -1.45
Saudi Chicago: -0.5
Presidents Cup: -0.8
Sanderson Farms: -3.65
Shriners: -2.1
Open de Spana: +1.68 - Hell of an effort from Min Woo with the full place. He hung in there all 4 days with Rahmbo until the back side on Sunday. Rahm just too good.
Saudi Bangkok: -0.5 - I might stop wasting my $ on this garbage. Haven't really found a good way to cap it.
ZoZo: -5.44
CJ CUP: -1.15
Bermuda: -1.25
Mayakoba: -1.50

Overall: -16.91
 
Waste Management

Been really tough to narrow this card. Torn a bit sticking with the top of the board that typically gets home here and should obviously be true especially with all the studs in the field but I'm still snagging a few way down the board...i can't resist

0.7* Finau 22-1 (Bet365)
0.55* Tom Kim 28-1 (Local)
0.3* Burns 50-1 (Bet365)
0.25* Fowler 65-1 (Bet365)

Each of these 1/5 1-8 E/W at Bet365 (units listed is for each of the 2 bets...so total risk on each is double). At least during my self induced timeout i didn't lose any $ on Riley....but then they stack up a field and put him (fairly) at 200+-1 but no chance in hell i'm not taking a stab
0.15* Pendrith 125-1
0.125* Higgo 160-1
0.10* Riley 225-1
0.10* Tarren 250-1

I'll likely get involved in a couple FRL darts and some matchups as well but will wait on that until Wednesday.

Should be fun....can't wait
 
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