PaintCrew 2022 Golf

Took Riley +130 v Fitz first round

Was looking to fade Fitz this week anyway, just so happens that's the only matchup I get.

Hammer it, love this tournament more than Sawgrass, only other non-major I enjoy more is Maui.
 
PaintCrew said:
What a strange situation with Deki....not sure I've seen that type of DQ before
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Really weird because I don't understand why someone would mark the face of a driver as an alignment aid. At what point in your setup and swing are you actually able to look at the face?
 
Gandolf said:
Really weird because I don't understand why someone would mark the face of a driver as an alignment aid. At what point in your setup and swing are you actually able to look at the face?
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It makes no sense to me....I don't play a lot these days but in 25+ years of playing golf I've never seen anyone mark up a club like that
 
Brutal runout to push with Riley/Mito. Riley just didn't have the driver all week and honestly its impressive to see where he ended up despite that. Also made absolutely nothing over the weekend.

Jaco made a run that likely probably ends up winning about any other memorial with how tough it played yesterday but BillyHo was the masterclass of masterclass. Tip of the cap and on to the RBC.

Outrights -2.00
Matchups 1-2-1 -1.09 (push on Riley/Mito)

Memorial overall: -3.09
 
Not a given at all that he'll make it through....this qualifier in Columbus is the most convenient post Memorial of the bunch and it's basically a PGA event
 
Basically 6 shots clear in a field full of top 100 dudes ….he’s on a different level at the moment
 
Yea these are the 13 that made it through. All PGA tour pros but the stud college kid from A&M....

It was a stacked qualifier per normal.

A host of pros that didn't make it such as Lingmerth, Poston, Palmer, my dude Higgo, Party Marty Laird, Villegas, Reavie, RCB, Duncan, Long, Glover, Steele, Swafford, and many others
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I was close to going back to the Aussie Mullet at 14-1 with one big ol' dart and just taking the week off to prep for the US Open but decided to spread it across these 3
 
Getting the math and notes updated

Sentry: +10.50 (Smith Winner)
Sony: +2.34 (Kiz & Seamus T3 just missed)
AMEX: -0.15 (no contenders really...)
Farmers overall: -2.55 (whiff all together)
Pebble: +11.75 (Hoge Winner)
Ras Al: -0.5 (whiff)
WM Open: +17.12 (Scottie Winner)
Riveria: -4.75 (big whiff)
Honda: -0.80 (notta)
API: -2.4 (nothing at all)
Players: +15.5 (Smith Winner)
Valspar: -1.50 (Fitz 5th...atleast sniffed around but this one hurt....my boys Burns and Riley in a playoff… and I somehow didn’t play them)
WGC MatchPlay: -1.6 (Kisner 50-1 loses in the title match to Scottie....it hurt)
Valero: -1.0 (screw this entire event and the beginning of wasted $ on Beefcake)
Masters (ouch): -8.71 (lots of regrets here but at least an incredible value bet on Smith 35-1 came close....Scottie beats me again)
RBC: -5.06 (Yuck....Although Dahmen really did have a legit shot at it at 125-1)
Zurich: +0.125 (Higgo/Grace 125-1 nearly get home but to no avail)
Mexico: +9.30 (Riley T5 and almost got the big outright 50-1 home for an epic tourney)
Wells Fargo: +1.50 (3 outrights finish T2....Fitz/Keegs/Cy...)f
Byron: -4.40 (No one really in contention from the get go....slow starts by Burns/Riley Thursday did things in....)
PGA: +3.15 (Peppered the leaderboard all weekend but didn't get home....CYoung co-leader with 4 to play and shit the bed)
Colonial: -2.00 (Another near miss....Riley outright leader coming home and pushes a drive OB on 14)
Memorial: -3.09 (No shame in this one.....Riley/CYoung/Jaco contended from start to almost finish but this was BillyHo's week and BillyHo's alone)
 
1* Smith +103 vs JT
1* Hadwin -1.5 +110 vs Vegas
1* Hatton +113 vs HV3

edit - added Hatton matchup
 
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No good reason but decided to sweat the mixed euro event
0.375* Alexander/Bjork 20-1
0.25* johannes/veerman 33-1
 
Canada things
Outrights -2.00 - When you head into Sunday as a co-leader and drop a 64 you typically get yourself a W. Finau not so lucky though (and me in return). Rory was too good and Tony missed 2 too many short ones yesterday. 2nd places are beginning to get a bit old but probably balancing out from the luck early in the year....will keep trying to get dudes in position and hope a couple bounce back my way in the near future
Matchups 1-2 -0.9 - Smith just had nothing really all weekend and didn't really like what I saw at all. I don't even remember why i laid $ on Hatton. He's being sent back to a no bet list I used to have with him on it. Guy is a mess currently.
Canada Overall: -2.90
Scandanavian Mixed: -0.625 (that was dumb)

Sentry: +10.50 (Smith Winner)
Sony: +2.34 (Kiz & Seamus T3 just missed)
AMEX: -0.15 (no contenders really...)
Farmers overall: -2.55 (whiff all together)
Pebble: +11.75 (Hoge Winner)
Ras Al: -0.5 (whiff)
WM Open: +17.12 (Scottie Winner)
Riveria: -4.75 (big whiff)
Honda: -0.80 (notta)
API: -2.4 (nothing at all)
Players: +15.5 (Smith Winner)
Valspar: -1.50 (Fitz 5th...atleast sniffed around but this one hurt....my boys Burns and Riley in a playoff… and I somehow didn’t play them)
WGC MatchPlay: -1.6 (Kisner 50-1 loses in the title match to Scottie....it hurt)
Valero: -1.0 (screw this entire event and the beginning of wasted $ on Beefcake)
Masters (ouch): -8.71 (lots of regrets here but at least an incredible value bet on Smith 35-1 came close....Scottie beats me again)
RBC: -5.06 (Yuck....Although Dahmen really did have a legit shot at it at 125-1)
Zurich: +0.125 (Higgo/Grace 125-1 nearly get home but to no avail)
Mexico: +9.30 (Riley T5 and almost got the big outright 50-1 home for an epic tourney)
Wells Fargo: +1.50 (3 outrights finish T2....Fitz/Keegs/Cy...)f
Byron: -4.40 (No one really in contention from the get go....slow starts by Burns/Riley Thursday did things in....)
PGA: +3.15 (Peppered the leaderboard all weekend but didn't get home....CYoung co-leader with 4 to play and shit the bed)
Colonial: -2.00 (Another near miss....Riley outright leader coming home and pushes a drive OB on 14)
Memorial: -3.09 (No shame in this one.....Riley/CYoung/Jaco contended from start to almost finish but this was BillyHo's week and BillyHo's alone)
Canada: -2.90 (Finau co-leader going into sunday. 64.....Solo 2nd because Rory became Rory of old)
Scandanavian Mixed: -0.625 (that was dumb)

Season Overall: +29.25
 
Math and futures all updated in the top post....will get US Open outrights out there this afternoon more than likely

Here's what I have in my pocket already:
0.5* Burns 50-1 - (Sometimes snagging tickets well ahead of time works out)
0.5* Wolff 66-1 - (Sometimes not....)
 
Current Outright Card with adds this morning:
0.5* X 25-1
0.5* Burns 50-1
0.5* Wolff 66-1 (sucks to even put this here but it is what it is)
0.3* DJ 40-1
0.3* Homa 40-1
0.2* Riley 60-1
 
Going to be at least one more add....the drift on some of these names/numbers is a bit too much IMO in both directions.....i'll end up with a bit too much staked this week but it's what I do for majors. Just hope to have a nice father's day sweat come Sunday
 
Davis going off early morning Thursday....haven't had this opportunity often recently so I'm giving it a go that there might be a small edge. Probably too early to say obviously but thus far sure doesn't look like anything weird would be happening Thursday with weather...I'd imagine a little less breezy in the morning before 10/20 mph small gusts in the afternoon wave.

R1 Leader
0.25* Riley 60-1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536412480984862720
 
I'm almost frightened by my first look through matchups....fear the bloodbath type of thing at first glance

US Open H2Hs (full tourney)
1* Scottie -105 vs Rory
1* Scottie -110 vs JT
1* Morikawa +110 vs Fitzy (get the hell out of here with this)
1* Morikawa +106 vs WillyZ (ditto)
1* Berger -110 vs BillyHo
1* Riley EV vs Gooch
1* Im -129 vs Connors

Will have more when -1.5's come out for me to get some more +$ matchups
 
And the last outright....

0.5* Morikawa 28-1

Again pushing it well past my normal 2U stake (i'm at 2.8U now) but that includes a nonsensical Matty Wolff 0.5 loss so I'm writing that off and pushing things slightly. Morikawa near 30's at a course that is going to demand the best of the absolute best of your approach game is a must play IMO and typically the range where he wakes up and wins and then goes back to the 13-20 (to 1) range where he belongs.
 
This is dumb. Don’t do this but I just can’t resist as it will likely be my last wasted bet on Bryson at majors.

Puts me at a full 3U stake on outrights. More matchups and place bets to come tomorrow
0.2* Beefcake 120-1
 
Final Outright Card:
0.5* X 25-1
0.5* Morikawa 28-1
0.5* Burns 50-1
0.5* Wolff 66-1 (sucks to even put this here but it is what it is)
0.3* DJ 40-1
0.3* Homa 40-1
0.2* Riley 60-1
0.2* Saudi Beefcake 120-1
 
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Very tempted to fade Bryson this week, but The only match up I can find with him is English. Coming off that surgery, I can’t find any good updates on how he’s feeling…
 
RBTrojan said:
Very tempted to fade Bryson this week, but The only match up I can find with him is English. Coming off that surgery, I can’t find any good updates on how he’s feeling…
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yeah I have no idea how to cap that one without inside info on Harris.....complete wildcard either way for both IMO
 
PaintCrew said:
yeah I have no idea how to cap that one without inside info on Harris.....complete wildcard either way for both IMO
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Harris would be an auto play for me if I knew he is healthy. The 77’s at the Memorial two weeks ago are really holding me back. I doubt Bryson will ever be healthy again. But he will be the healthiest 130 year old the game of golf has ever known…
 
RBTrojan said:
Harris would be an auto play for me if I knew he is healthy. The 77’s at the Memorial two weeks ago are really holding me back. I doubt Bryson will ever be healthy again. But he will be the healthiest 130 year old the game of golf has ever known…
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Don't blame you at all. I think Bryson is honestly pretty healthy at this point but it's his brain that will remain f*cked up forever.....

I love Harris but I don't trust him a lick in matchups even when healthy. As high variance as they get
 
US OPEN

Final Outright Card:
0.5* X 25-1
0.5* Morikawa 28-1
0.5* Burns 50-1
0.5* Wolff 66-1 (sucks to even put this here but it is what it is)
0.3* DJ 40-1
0.3* Homa 40-1
0.2* Riley 60-1
0.2* Saudi Beefcake 120-1

R1 Leader
0.25* Riley 60-1

T5
0.50* Riley 15-1 (FanDuel)

T10
1* X +190
0.50* Riley 5-1

T20
2* X -120
1* Finau +110

More full tourney H2Hs
2* Smith +112 vs Spieth
2* Rahm +106 vs Rory
2* Finau -1.5 +106 vs Hovland (Added another unit this morning)

1* Scottie -105 vs Rory
1* Scottie -110 vs JT
1* Morikawa +110 vs Fitzy (get the hell out of here with this)
1* Morikawa +106 vs WillyZ (ditto)
1* Berger -110 vs BillyHo
1* Riley EV vs Gooch
1* Im -129 vs Connors

Maybe some R1 matchups tonight but obviously the card is probably full enough as is right?

Enjoy the weekend gents....my favorite event and I think they have the setup the way it should be this year at the Country Club. Excited to see how it plays out
 
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