Given all that what should it be priced at? I guess it's hard to say but that Scottie +250 line is assuming it's already August 25th and he's sitting at -10 on day 1. Which should happen but that's kind of a joke to even put a line out like that. Anything can happen between now and then....we are talking almost 3 months out.
Who do I think has the best value at the top? Well I mean if you look at it a couple names stand out if you really evaluate total points vs number of events (look at names like Cam Smith and Rory and see how selective they've been and are still sitting where they are) and then add to it who I think is in the best current position and is also setup to make a run? It's Cam Smith by far.
This is a dude who was just 3 shots better than the entire field T2G at the PGA championship....the entire field....unheard of stuff other than Rahm at a Memorial
Come tour championship I'd be surprised if he's not sitting in the top 3 just like he is now and teeing off 3 shots back of Scottie but not surprised a bit if he chases down Burns for the 2nd spot....either way we aren't talking big swings in price. I'd guess he goes off at -7 more than likely (and conservatively) and probably at worst about 9 or 10 to 1 at that number.
I love Scottie but I think he's susceptible to a slump and it's worth grabbing someone like Smith or Rory or Morikawa (focusing on quality here and minimal events played....) which are guys truly building their seasons around majors and doing enough to make a run at this thing.
I'm not sure anyone not named Scottie at this point (and Rahm at the Memorial) should be priced lower than Cam in big events including my boy Burns and am expecting Cam to continue to prove that theory out the rest of the year.
Now for the throw away bet....
Riley 500-1
He's 20th now and has been racing up the list obviously the past 6 weeks....
The negatives (besides Scottie, Burns, Smith)
- He's likely out of the remaining majors missing out on some big point opportunities.....
- but.....if he pops this weekend and does something special he'll make the next top 60 qualifier for the US Open (which happens next week)
- basically his only chance is T10 at worst this week to have a go at it and might even need more than that....it's quite complicated to figure out all the names and who's already in so just leaving it there
- Still chances for the British Open as well but he'll need to pop at one of the 3 qualifying events (JD, Travelers, Barbasol) or absolutely kill it from here on in...
- Burnout....he's going to play in every event imaginable with eyes on making the tour championship (for that reason)
The positives
- he's going to play in every event imaginable with eyes on making the tour championship (for that reason) and if he can somehow maintain this type of quality he's going to likely move up rather than down....
- if he pops and wins 1 or T5's one or more you are looking at someone going into St Jude that could be T10 or so
- At that point anything can happen right? I think it's reasonable he gets to the TOUR championship and who knows maybecan get you a sweat..... but if he somehow got hot and won at St Jude or BMW?
Why not basically....the guy has given back to me way more than he'll ever lose me that's for sure so I'll give a few bucks for the possibility of a lotto ticket sweat
