PaintCrew 2022 Golf
- Thread starter PaintCrew
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Got math to do on RBC (not good as Dahman and Na just couldn’t put complete weekend rounds together)
Just these 2 for Zurich
0.75* WillyZ/Riley 28-1
0.75* Gooch/Homa 28-1
Tempted to back Kiz/brown as Kiz loves this place but Brown the last few goes has completely let him down
Just these 2 for Zurich
0.75* WillyZ/Riley 28-1
0.75* Gooch/Homa 28-1
Tempted to back Kiz/brown as Kiz loves this place but Brown the last few goes has completely let him down
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
I played Willy already. Hate the price on Gooch but i like them too.
Yeah this tourney is so hard to price honestly (but I love this event to a fault unlike just about any other golf capper i know...lol). I like going with guys i think will mesh well together and/or have done it before here and I definitely stray away from the top of the board given the type of crap shoot it is. I love both Gooch and Homa though.....would rather have them than all but maybe 3/4 teams so rolling with it.
Adding a couple other nibbles to complete it all
0.25* Kiz/Brownie 70-1 I just can't stay away....this number is dumb so I'm in even if I might look dumb after round 1. Brown has the capability and Kiz treats this entire event as it's almost match play like. Just really suits his style/ego/pride.
0.125* Grace/Higgo 125-1 Sneaky dart here. If you know me I'm a higgo fan boy of sorts to go along with Riley. The kid will win a big time event (i think more than 1) on this tour with his skill set. I think a talented South African vet like Grace could blend quite nicely with him in an event like this. He (Higgo) played phenomenal with the youngster i can't remember last year and was even in the mix sunday but was let down. (both of their forms are awful though.....but thus the price and not sure how much form really matters here)
Adding a couple other nibbles to complete it all
0.25* Kiz/Brownie 70-1 I just can't stay away....this number is dumb so I'm in even if I might look dumb after round 1. Brown has the capability and Kiz treats this entire event as it's almost match play like. Just really suits his style/ego/pride.
0.125* Grace/Higgo 125-1 Sneaky dart here. If you know me I'm a higgo fan boy of sorts to go along with Riley. The kid will win a big time event (i think more than 1) on this tour with his skill set. I think a talented South African vet like Grace could blend quite nicely with him in an event like this. He (Higgo) played phenomenal with the youngster i can't remember last year and was even in the mix sunday but was let down. (both of their forms are awful though.....but thus the price and not sure how much form really matters here)
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1* Burns/Billy Ho -132 vs Lowry/Poulter
1* Burns/Billy Ho -125 vs Fleet/Sergio
Only matchups i'm playing....if I only were to throw 1 dart this week it would be on Burns and Billy Ho to win it but wanted multiple outs at bigger odds with the darts I've got. I think a pretty good chance Burns and Billy turn this into a free roll for me but obviously could go sideways as well and double my losses
1* Burns/Billy Ho -125 vs Fleet/Sergio
Only matchups i'm playing....if I only were to throw 1 dart this week it would be on Burns and Billy Ho to win it but wanted multiple outs at bigger odds with the darts I've got. I think a pretty good chance Burns and Billy turn this into a free roll for me but obviously could go sideways as well and double my losses
Zurich
Outrights -1.875
Matchups +2.00
Overall +0.125
Still have RBC math to do.....Zurich was fun. I guess at least Burns/BillyHo didn't come through with the title as I would've kicked myself a bit on that. All 4 darts made it through the weekend but really only Higgo/Grace contended and even had a 2 shot lead a couple times on Saturday. Tip of the cap to the robotic team of X/Cant whom made damn near everything the first 3 days to basically make Sunday a non-sweat.
Outrights -1.875
Matchups +2.00
Overall +0.125
Still have RBC math to do.....Zurich was fun. I guess at least Burns/BillyHo didn't come through with the title as I would've kicked myself a bit on that. All 4 darts made it through the weekend but really only Higgo/Grace contended and even had a 2 shot lead a couple times on Saturday. Tip of the cap to the robotic team of X/Cant whom made damn near everything the first 3 days to basically make Sunday a non-sweat.
laopadak
Pretty much a regular
Appreciate the insight on betting this sport. I tailed a couple Zurich plays, specifically the Higgo/Grace for 1/2 unit. Had the opportunity to cash out at 6/1 yesterday morning but opted to let it ride. Did pretty good on random plays so already had made my money back.
GL as the season progresses
GL as the season progresses
Appreciate that @laopadak
Mexico
0.5* Woodland 25-1
0.5* Wise 33-1
Might be a longshot or 2 and probably a couple matchups mid week
Last outright....there are better numbers out there but this is what I have available where i'm most liquid at the moment
0.5* Riley 50-1 (will be adding some sort of T5/T10/T20 stack to go with it....not a lot of logic but I think this place is going to really suit him this week and he's in form and love that he out played Willy Z last weekend and fully knows he belongs. One of these tournies he will pop and he's a closer when he does.....)
0.5* Riley 50-1 (will be adding some sort of T5/T10/T20 stack to go with it....not a lot of logic but I think this place is going to really suit him this week and he's in form and love that he out played Willy Z last weekend and fully knows he belongs. One of these tournies he will pop and he's a closer when he does.....)
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0.25 FRL Riley 45-1
0.5* Riley T5 10-1
R1 Clark -130 vs schenk
Tourney H2Hs all 1*
Woodland -104 over Abe
Riley -115 over Theegala
Wise -150 over Streelman
Pretty simple…ended up loving my darts matchups across the board so rolling with them
Likely no other round matchups as I doubt there will be good stats round to round
Good luck y’all
0.5* Riley T5 10-1
R1 Clark -130 vs schenk
Tourney H2Hs all 1*
Woodland -104 over Abe
Riley -115 over Theegala
Wise -150 over Streelman
Pretty simple…ended up loving my darts matchups across the board so rolling with them
Likely no other round matchups as I doubt there will be good stats round to round
Good luck y’all
Too bad can’t fade Schenk any more but happy to get a couple U off him
I think just one today. All 3 darts to the weekend but Woody can’t seem to putt a lick and Wise was a mess yesterday. Likely down to Riley whom was masterclass yesterday outside of a disaster of a water ball and a bad 3 putt. If I was on the outside without a piece I’d be intrigued at 26-1 or so which is inflated a bit for good reason with Rahm out in front.
R3 - Pushing my Riley luck but can’t see how this isn’t 50/50 at worst
1* Riley +105 vs Lanto
I think just one today. All 3 darts to the weekend but Woody can’t seem to putt a lick and Wise was a mess yesterday. Likely down to Riley whom was masterclass yesterday outside of a disaster of a water ball and a bad 3 putt. If I was on the outside without a piece I’d be intrigued at 26-1 or so which is inflated a bit for good reason with Rahm out in front.
R3 - Pushing my Riley luck but can’t see how this isn’t 50/50 at worst
1* Riley +105 vs Lanto
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
I’m on him but he only shot -2 yesterday while others were firing much better
Riley gave it a hell of a go. Couple too many missed short ones throughout the week and Rahm made tester after tester all day.
Cash that 10-1 T5 with the solo 5th though!
Mexico
Outrights and FRL: -1.75
Riley T5: +5.00
Tourney H2Hs: 3-0 +3.00
Round H2Hs: 3-0 +3.05
Overall: +9.30
Cash that 10-1 T5 with the solo 5th though!
Mexico
Outrights and FRL: -1.75
Riley T5: +5.00
Tourney H2Hs: 3-0 +3.00
Round H2Hs: 3-0 +3.05
Overall: +9.30
Bookkeeping update.....Finally updated RBC math...
Updated in 1st post as well
Sentry: +10.50
Sony: +2.34
AMEX: -0.15
Farmers overall: -2.55
Pebble: +11.75
Ras Al: -0.5
WM Open: +17.12
Riveria: -4.75
Honda: -0.80
API: -2.4
Players: +15.5
Valspar: -1.50
WGC MatchPlay: -1.6
Valero: -1.0
Masters (ouch): -8.71
RBC: -5.06
Zurich: +0.125
Mexico: +9.30
YTD: +37.615
Updated in 1st post as well
Sentry: +10.50
Sony: +2.34
AMEX: -0.15
Farmers overall: -2.55
Pebble: +11.75
Ras Al: -0.5
WM Open: +17.12
Riveria: -4.75
Honda: -0.80
API: -2.4
Players: +15.5
Valspar: -1.50
WGC MatchPlay: -1.6
Valero: -1.0
Masters (ouch): -8.71
RBC: -5.06
Zurich: +0.125
Mexico: +9.30
YTD: +37.615
King Slap
CTG Honorary Super Moderator
You were actually +10.75 at Pebble
Please send me back my $200 for fixing this mathematical error
Ha! If so I'll correct but you can earn your $200 back next year
King Slap
CTG Honorary Super Moderator
Wells Fargo - Missed a couple slightly better numbers
0.5* Fitzy 20-1
0.5* Keegs 30-1 - All of golf twitter seems to be on him....file that in the list of things that don't matter
0.5* CYoung 35-1 - I've come around dramatically on this guy
Just missed the card (Seamus....was way too late on the draw this week and price dropped a bit too much)
0.5* Fitzy 20-1
0.5* Keegs 30-1 - All of golf twitter seems to be on him....file that in the list of things that don't matter
0.5* CYoung 35-1 - I've come around dramatically on this guy
Just missed the card (Seamus....was way too late on the draw this week and price dropped a bit too much)
Wells adds
Against my better judgement I went with my man Seamus anyway....don't love the price but I played it so I'm posting it
Outright add
0.5* Seamus 35-1
FRL
0.25* CYoung 35-1
0.25* Straka 50-1
Full Tourney H2H
2* CYoung EV over Webb - I get it based on name but you've basically got the hottest driver in the game at the moment on a course that clearly rewards OTT more than nearly any other vs a guy that hasn't done much of anything other than maybe a T10 or something at whatever the RSM classic is in the fall. CYoung in this form (vs whatever form Webb is in....). is simply the better golfer.
1* Keegs +130 over Henley - (Someone explain this to me....I have it as a toss up)
Round 1 H2H - Riding the form and great course fits vs a couple guys that are kind of a mess at the moment
1* Seamus -.5 -130 over KHLee - You should know i love me some Seamus....vs KHLee who hasn't popped anywhere in quite sometime along with 3 straight MCs
1* Lahiri -.5 -125 over Norlander (tempted to go more here as Norlander is a mess....8 MCs in his last 9 events and T53 was the outlier at the valero)
Good luck out there....might be back for some more single round H2Hs on the weekend and probably will post some Derby plays even though I know nothing about horses on Saturday
Against my better judgement I went with my man Seamus anyway....don't love the price but I played it so I'm posting it
Outright add
0.5* Seamus 35-1
FRL
0.25* CYoung 35-1
0.25* Straka 50-1
Full Tourney H2H
2* CYoung EV over Webb - I get it based on name but you've basically got the hottest driver in the game at the moment on a course that clearly rewards OTT more than nearly any other vs a guy that hasn't done much of anything other than maybe a T10 or something at whatever the RSM classic is in the fall. CYoung in this form (vs whatever form Webb is in....). is simply the better golfer.
1* Keegs +130 over Henley - (Someone explain this to me....I have it as a toss up)
Round 1 H2H - Riding the form and great course fits vs a couple guys that are kind of a mess at the moment
1* Seamus -.5 -130 over KHLee - You should know i love me some Seamus....vs KHLee who hasn't popped anywhere in quite sometime along with 3 straight MCs
1* Lahiri -.5 -125 over Norlander (tempted to go more here as Norlander is a mess....8 MCs in his last 9 events and T53 was the outlier at the valero)
Good luck out there....might be back for some more single round H2Hs on the weekend and probably will post some Derby plays even though I know nothing about horses on Saturday
Not sure I’ve ever accomplished 3 outrights all finishing 2nd before…lol
At least H2Hs came through. Will update math later today
So so good...
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Picking 3 of the top 4 all 20-1+ is the most impressive NON-win I've ever seen.
Parlaying top 5 finishes for those 3 would have been a monster.
Thanks guys....yeah @Inspekdah definitely one of those i wish I was always in an E/W mode at the minimum. It's a debate I constantly have with myself with E/W's or at least covering with T5s/T10s
I did a little commentary bookkeeping for each tourney in regards to my outlay with outrights and posted at the top. Mainly for my own mentality to assess my own takes and how things are going from tourney to tourney. Means nothing really but I wanted to do it.
Sentry: +10.50 (Smith Winner)
Sony: +2.34 (Kiz & Seamus T3 just missed)
AMEX: -0.15 (no contenders really...)
Farmers overall: -2.55 (whiff all together)
Pebble: +11.75 (Hoge Winner)
Ras Al: -0.5 (whiff)
WM Open: +17.12 (Scottie Winner)
Riveria: -4.75 (big whiff)
Honda: -0.80 (notta)
API: -2.4 (nothing at all)
Players: +15.5 (Smith Winner)
Valspar: -1.50 (Fitz 5th...atleast sniffed around but this one hurt....my boys Burns and Riley in a playoff… and I somehow didn’t play them)
WGC MatchPlay: -1.6 (Kisner 50-1 loses in the title match to Scottie....it hurt)
Valero: -1.0 (screw this entire event and the beginning of wasted $ on Beefcake)
Masters (ouch): -8.71 (lots of regrets here but at least an incredible value bet on Smith 35-1 came close....Scottie beats me again)
RBC: -5.06 (Yuck....Although Dahmen really did have a legit shot at it at 125-1)
Zurich: +0.125 (Higgo/Grace 125-1 nearly get home but to no avail)
Mexico: +9.30 (Riley T5 and almost got the big outright 50-1 home for an epic tourney)
Wells Fargo: +1.50 (3 outrights finish T2....Fitz/Keegs/Cy...)
I did a little commentary bookkeeping for each tourney in regards to my outlay with outrights and posted at the top. Mainly for my own mentality to assess my own takes and how things are going from tourney to tourney. Means nothing really but I wanted to do it.
Sentry: +10.50 (Smith Winner)
Sony: +2.34 (Kiz & Seamus T3 just missed)
AMEX: -0.15 (no contenders really...)
Farmers overall: -2.55 (whiff all together)
Pebble: +11.75 (Hoge Winner)
Ras Al: -0.5 (whiff)
WM Open: +17.12 (Scottie Winner)
Riveria: -4.75 (big whiff)
Honda: -0.80 (notta)
API: -2.4 (nothing at all)
Players: +15.5 (Smith Winner)
Valspar: -1.50 (Fitz 5th...atleast sniffed around but this one hurt....my boys Burns and Riley in a playoff… and I somehow didn’t play them)
WGC MatchPlay: -1.6 (Kisner 50-1 loses in the title match to Scottie....it hurt)
Valero: -1.0 (screw this entire event and the beginning of wasted $ on Beefcake)
Masters (ouch): -8.71 (lots of regrets here but at least an incredible value bet on Smith 35-1 came close....Scottie beats me again)
RBC: -5.06 (Yuck....Although Dahmen really did have a legit shot at it at 125-1)
Zurich: +0.125 (Higgo/Grace 125-1 nearly get home but to no avail)
Mexico: +9.30 (Riley T5 and almost got the big outright 50-1 home for an epic tourney)
Wells Fargo: +1.50 (3 outrights finish T2....Fitz/Keegs/Cy...)
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Byron Tourney Matchup
2* Burns -1.5 +102 over Spieth - I realize the fire I'm playing with here. But there is only one course on the planet (Augusta) I wouldn't take this bet over 4 rounds between these 2 at + $$$. I don't know how you'd make the case that this isn't at absolute worst 50/50.
2* Burns -1.5 +102 over Spieth - I realize the fire I'm playing with here. But there is only one course on the planet (Augusta) I wouldn't take this bet over 4 rounds between these 2 at + $$$. I don't know how you'd make the case that this isn't at absolute worst 50/50.
BenchCoach
Pretty much a regular
I’m on Burns in every direction possible
Can't quite figure out how Burns managed a 39 coming in yesterday. Looks like I'll just be taking my medicine and moving on to Southern Hills. Will keep my eye on it today just in case but more than likely staying away regardless if my darts wake up at all today or not and make the cut.
Byron
Outrights -2.40 (Burns simply just sloppy for a few holes on Thursday coming in...happens. My man Riley -21 the final 3 rounds but that even par 72 cost him Thursday. He's in a groove similar to the likes of things he did against the studs of the Korn Ferry whom are now the studs of the PGA tour....it's sustainable IMO and more often than not expect the guy to T10/T20 week in and week out)
Matchup -2.00 (I watched more Spieth for 4 rounds than I've watched in white some time. More to come for this week but his little outside in swing thought on his practice swing while I hate it....clearly keeping things simple for him is working. Tip of the cap)
Overall Byron: -4.40
YTD: +34.715
Outrights -2.40 (Burns simply just sloppy for a few holes on Thursday coming in...happens. My man Riley -21 the final 3 rounds but that even par 72 cost him Thursday. He's in a groove similar to the likes of things he did against the studs of the Korn Ferry whom are now the studs of the PGA tour....it's sustainable IMO and more often than not expect the guy to T10/T20 week in and week out)
Matchup -2.00 (I watched more Spieth for 4 rounds than I've watched in white some time. More to come for this week but his little outside in swing thought on his practice swing while I hate it....clearly keeping things simple for him is working. Tip of the cap)
Overall Byron: -4.40
YTD: +34.715
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Full Outright card
0.75* Smith 22-1
0.50* Burns 50-1 Played a while ago....if I didn't have this i'd play it at any number available currently anyway
0.30* Berger 50-1
0.25* Wolff 100-1 Played last week but this number is still available. He's a fragile one obviously but to me still worth a stab
0.25* Oostie 60-1 Tried and true with Louie....he loves taking my $ and finishing 2nd
0.225* CYoung 66-1 This number is garbage....tempted to buy more but the card is already overflowing
0.225* Fleetwood 66-1 Not something I'm in love with but he obviously sets up well for this track and these conditions especially now at this type of price
Ended up right on a total outlay of 2.5 to win around 15 units flat other than the game changer win possibilities of Burns and Wolff
I was deeply conflicted at the top and damn near played Spieth after watching him so closely this week but decided to stick with my gut and reads especially when Smith came out in the 20's (i think he should be there right with the likes of Rahm and JT to be honest and only Scottie deserves to be all alone near 10-1). I just didn't have room for 2 in this range given my love of all these guys down the board. Strong possibility I end up with some Spieth in matchups maybe for the first time in 4-5 years or so......
One other reasonable way to go to me is trading in Smith/Berger/Oostie/Fleetwood for 1 big dart at Scottie but again I just loved too many guys in the 50+ range and truly think a couple of these end up in the mix. I do think Scottie as the favorite is very fairly priced and potentially even underpriced so I won't blame a soul for going that route and might be the best way to roll....
Matchups to come midweek and likely some FRL darts and maybe some Tiger to make the cut again if it's not too outrageously priced...
0.75* Smith 22-1
0.50* Burns 50-1 Played a while ago....if I didn't have this i'd play it at any number available currently anyway
0.30* Berger 50-1
0.25* Wolff 100-1 Played last week but this number is still available. He's a fragile one obviously but to me still worth a stab
0.25* Oostie 60-1 Tried and true with Louie....he loves taking my $ and finishing 2nd
0.225* CYoung 66-1 This number is garbage....tempted to buy more but the card is already overflowing
0.225* Fleetwood 66-1 Not something I'm in love with but he obviously sets up well for this track and these conditions especially now at this type of price
Ended up right on a total outlay of 2.5 to win around 15 units flat other than the game changer win possibilities of Burns and Wolff
I was deeply conflicted at the top and damn near played Spieth after watching him so closely this week but decided to stick with my gut and reads especially when Smith came out in the 20's (i think he should be there right with the likes of Rahm and JT to be honest and only Scottie deserves to be all alone near 10-1). I just didn't have room for 2 in this range given my love of all these guys down the board. Strong possibility I end up with some Spieth in matchups maybe for the first time in 4-5 years or so......
One other reasonable way to go to me is trading in Smith/Berger/Oostie/Fleetwood for 1 big dart at Scottie but again I just loved too many guys in the 50+ range and truly think a couple of these end up in the mix. I do think Scottie as the favorite is very fairly priced and potentially even underpriced so I won't blame a soul for going that route and might be the best way to roll....
Matchups to come midweek and likely some FRL darts and maybe some Tiger to make the cut again if it's not too outrageously priced...
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