P2W Fri & Sat Churchill Downs
- Thread starter Play2win
- Start date
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
damn, ran 2nd at 9/2 odds
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Damn, 2nd again
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Just think 12 is a notch below these, however his running style could make him a player, tons of early speed in Derby and #12 comes from off the pace, could get a good setup.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R1: no real opinion, #8 looks like the class of the race
R2: entry looks strong, thought 1 and 1A looked like top two in here
R3: #10 and #12 are two long shots worth a look
R4: #6 looks best, #8 could be the sleeper, and I want no part of #11 back from Dubai
R5: #6 is the fav and one to beat but has to deal with other early speeds in here (2 and 4) meanwhile #5 has been running with much better, moves off of rail after drawing inside in last three races, and is off a tough trip.
R6: #3 is a big price that has a chance, great stretch out and 2nd out trainer..lots of ways to go in wide open race, 5,6,8 maybe even 9 look like they could be used as well
R7: 1 and 8 are the class but both off layoffs, no real speed in here and 7 may look to take advantage of that but is 0 for 6 at distance
R8: 4,5,8 look to be the main players..I prefer #5 who needed last race off layoff
R9: 2 and 4 top two favs but both speeds, not a fan of 5 but he may get a great trip and favorable pace setup today
R10: I can see any of 3,8,9,11,12
Derby thoughts next..
R2: entry looks strong, thought 1 and 1A looked like top two in here
R3: #10 and #12 are two long shots worth a look
R4: #6 looks best, #8 could be the sleeper, and I want no part of #11 back from Dubai
R5: #6 is the fav and one to beat but has to deal with other early speeds in here (2 and 4) meanwhile #5 has been running with much better, moves off of rail after drawing inside in last three races, and is off a tough trip.
R6: #3 is a big price that has a chance, great stretch out and 2nd out trainer..lots of ways to go in wide open race, 5,6,8 maybe even 9 look like they could be used as well
R7: 1 and 8 are the class but both off layoffs, no real speed in here and 7 may look to take advantage of that but is 0 for 6 at distance
R8: 4,5,8 look to be the main players..I prefer #5 who needed last race off layoff
R9: 2 and 4 top two favs but both speeds, not a fan of 5 but he may get a great trip and favorable pace setup today
R10: I can see any of 3,8,9,11,12
Derby thoughts next..
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
yes, I agree..like it a lot.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Ky Derby:
I really don't like #18 American Pharaoh, I never bet favorites in horse races and you really have to get more value than 2-1 in a field this big, I am never a fan of "hype" horses, Pharaoh had a light 3 yo campaign so far, towered over those fields at Oaklawn, and there are so many other early speed types, that won't help Pharaoh either.
#2 Carpe Diem, will be close to early pace and poor inside draw for that, plenty of other speeds on outside of him, Pletcher is the best trainer in the country but only 1 for 40 with Derby runners, there's also another stat on Pletcher: something like 1 for 62 in all Churchill Downs races beyond 9 furlongs, only winner 2010 Derby with Super Saver.
#3 Materiality has had good setups in prior races, not so much today, facing other early speeds and inside draw not good for that, and see Pletcher stats above.
#6 Mubtaahij facing much better today than the field he trounced in Dubai but to me was visually impressive and distance won't be a problem as he already has two wins at 1 3/16 miles
#7 El Kabeir is scratched, didn't like him at all.
#8 Dortmund hasn't done anything wrong but short price will be at a pace disadvantage today, plenty of other early speeds.
#9 Bolo is a big sleeper, tough trip vs Dortmund in his last race.
#10 Firing Line, gave Dortmund a real battle two back and that was off a layoff so maybe not 100 percent wound for that one, just hope he isn't to close early, let him settle in mid pack or so.
#12 I was asked about International Star, he has the right running style to be a factor but I just don't think he classes up in the field.
#15 Frosted coming off best race and could even take another step forward, was wide and ran against the grain of the track when winning The Wood, should have a great setup today.
#19 Upstart I've been a big fan of since during his 2 yo season last year, even had him in Breeders Cup Juvenile and he ran great that day, that's how I hope he runs today, one run closer. He was good at Gulfstream during the winter but was taken out of his game, he had to be much closer early that he likes to be because Gulfstream tends to play to speeds. 19 post helps him as he can just settle early and run down the speeds late.
I really don't like #18 American Pharaoh, I never bet favorites in horse races and you really have to get more value than 2-1 in a field this big, I am never a fan of "hype" horses, Pharaoh had a light 3 yo campaign so far, towered over those fields at Oaklawn, and there are so many other early speed types, that won't help Pharaoh either.
#2 Carpe Diem, will be close to early pace and poor inside draw for that, plenty of other speeds on outside of him, Pletcher is the best trainer in the country but only 1 for 40 with Derby runners, there's also another stat on Pletcher: something like 1 for 62 in all Churchill Downs races beyond 9 furlongs, only winner 2010 Derby with Super Saver.
#3 Materiality has had good setups in prior races, not so much today, facing other early speeds and inside draw not good for that, and see Pletcher stats above.
#6 Mubtaahij facing much better today than the field he trounced in Dubai but to me was visually impressive and distance won't be a problem as he already has two wins at 1 3/16 miles
#7 El Kabeir is scratched, didn't like him at all.
#8 Dortmund hasn't done anything wrong but short price will be at a pace disadvantage today, plenty of other early speeds.
#9 Bolo is a big sleeper, tough trip vs Dortmund in his last race.
#10 Firing Line, gave Dortmund a real battle two back and that was off a layoff so maybe not 100 percent wound for that one, just hope he isn't to close early, let him settle in mid pack or so.
#12 I was asked about International Star, he has the right running style to be a factor but I just don't think he classes up in the field.
#15 Frosted coming off best race and could even take another step forward, was wide and ran against the grain of the track when winning The Wood, should have a great setup today.
#19 Upstart I've been a big fan of since during his 2 yo season last year, even had him in Breeders Cup Juvenile and he ran great that day, that's how I hope he runs today, one run closer. He was good at Gulfstream during the winter but was taken out of his game, he had to be much closer early that he likes to be because Gulfstream tends to play to speeds. 19 post helps him as he can just settle early and run down the speeds late.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
on it with you, GL
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
GL today Canes
sharp square
Well-Known Member
Best of luck w/ ponies today P2W , Should be another great Derby :cheers3:
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Damn, I have to go to a wedding today but it's near 711, I may be stopping by.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
appreciate it, BOL on the action today.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R3 #12 ran well at 15-1 odds
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Boom, R4 #8
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Great call there Play
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
:shake:
